June 10 Storms

6:10 PM Update: There are some thunderstorms currently affecting the area. The first area just moved through NE NJ and is headed SSE towards New York City and southern Brooklyn, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall with some thunder. This storm has a history of producing 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain in a short period of time.

The second storm is in eastern Long Island, also moving SSE. Another storm is about to enter central Long Island. Both storms are capable of producing heavy rainfall between 1/4 to 1/2 inch in a short period of time.

Moderate To Heavy Rain Tonight

Areas of rain are currently falling across the area, as the latest radar image shows. So far, up to 1/4 inch of rain fell across the area, with periods of light to moderate rain currently falling.

While it may seem that the rain is approaching an end, the low pressure is expected to redevelop just off the coast later this evening, which should enhance the rainfall, especially in the immediate NYC area and places further south and east. Periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rain should continue until at least 12 AM, when the rain should start to weaken. Rain totals should end up between 1/2 and 3/4 inch, with locally higher amounts, especially east of NYC.

Today's update will be posted later tonight, including an update on this weekend's forecast and a look at the longer range.

June 8: Heavy Rain Possible Tomorrow Night

After another comfortable day today, with mainly sunny skies and high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, things are about to change tomorrow. An approaching storm from our west is going to bring the risk of rain and some thunderstorms tomorrow night, producing locally heavy rainfall. Thursday and Friday should continue with the comfortable weather, though starting next weekend, uncertainty returns in the forecast.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

The approaching storm is going to bring mainly cloudy skies tomorrow, which should keep temperatures on the chilly side. High temperatures should be in the mid to upper 60s inland, and in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the rest of the area.

Periods of rain should start tomorrow afternoon, becoming locally heavy during the late afternoon and evening hours, which is when some thunder is also possible. The rain is expected to taper off late tomorrow night, bringing a total of 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain with locally higher amounts up to 1 inch.

Comfortable Conditions Return Late This Week

By Thursday, some leftover showers are possible in the morning, though the storm system is briefly going to draw in warmer temperatures, leading to Thursday's temperatures rising into the mid to upper 70s across most of the area except for the immediate coast, which should be in the lower to mid 70s. A few places near or SW of NYC may reach 80 degrees.

After the storm exits the region, a colder air mass is briefly going to return. As a result, Friday is going to be mainly sunny with high temperatures slightly colder, in the lower to mid 70s inland, and in the mid 70s for the immediate NYC area.

Weekend To Early Week: Warmer, Stormy Conditions Possible

Things get much more complicated for this weekend. First of all, I am not using today's GFS runs for this time period, as they are outlier runs due to convective feedback issues. The GFS decides to take a small area of heavy rain in SE Texas, and brings it all the way to the Ohio Valley, then turns it southeast towards Virginia, which changes the entire pattern for this time period. The GFS only keeps this as a very weak low pressure, if even that, indicating that this is an error.

By Saturday, warmer conditions should return into the area, with high temperatures back into the lower 80s. Sunday should continue to warm up, with high temperatures potentially reaching the mid to upper 80s. Note that there is still uncertainty with the extent of the warmth, which leads to a potential temperature range from the lower 80s to the lower 90s.

A cold front should then move through the area on Monday. There is some uncertainty with the exact timing, however if it moves through on Monday afternoon/evening, the potential for thunderstorms may be there. By Tuesday, another trough should move into the area, leading to colder high temperatures, back into the 70s.

June 7: Chilly Week Ahead, Some Rain

After the very warm temperatures last week, which can actually be considered the first heat wave of the year as temperatures went over 90 degrees for 3 consecutive days in parts of the area, this week should be much more comfortable than last week, with high temperatures in the 70s and lower humidity. The week should also start out dry. There are indications, however, that more heat and storms may return starting next weekend.

Yesterday's Storms: Why The Forecast Failed

Last week's severe weather events were unusually difficult to forecast. In the majority of the cases, despite the models indicating at least a slight risk for severe weather, there were very little, if any storms. In some cases, some hints on the models were shown that would lead to less severe weather than expected. In the other case, despite the models showing an unusually favorable set up for what could have been a very active day yesterday, the forecast ended up failing.

Despite the line seeming organized in Pennsylvania, thunderstorms ended up intensifying more in New England, as well as in the central Mid Atlantic, which significantly weakened the storms in between, which happened to be heading towards our area. In addition, the highest parameters shifted towards New England, and with the timing of the day being more supportive for New England than our area, that is where the majority of the severe weather ended up taking place.

Busts in severe weather are difficult to forecast and are usually only caught in the shorter range, which is why it is always important to keep an eye on the current observations, as even the days with the highest risk for severe weather may end up failing due to a last minute change.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Like today, tomorrow should be another sunny and comfortable day. Tomorrow morning should be unusually chilly, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s inland, in the lower to mid 50s for the NYC suburbs, in the mid to upper 50s for NYC, and in the lower to mid 50s for Long Island and southern CT. High temperatures should rise into the lower to mid 70s for the interior, S CT and Long Island, with the immediate NYC area in the mid 70s.

The region should also be mainly dry, with the only area seeing rain being New England. This is going to change by Wednesday, however, as the next storm approaches the area.

Mid To Late Week: Wet, Chilly

By Wednesday, the next storm should approach the area. The model solution were too suppressed at first, with the 00z GFS bringing the heaviest rain to southern Virginia, however the models have trended north since then, keeping our area in the northern edge of the moderate rainfall amounts. Wednesday should be slightly colder than tomorrow, with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area except for the western parts of the area, which should be in the mid to upper 60s. Light to moderate rain should start in the afternoon, bringing up to 1/4 inch of rain.

For Wednesday Night, light to moderate periods of rain and thunderstorms are expected, which should bring additional rainfall amounts between 1/4 and 1/2 inch of rain. This should bring the storm total to 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain. Thursday should be mostly cloudy with an isolated shower or two ending in the morning, with high temperatures rising into the lower 70s except for Long Island and SE Connecticut, which should stay in the upper 60s due to cloud cover and rain.

As a warmer air mass to our southwest should begin to approach the area, Friday should be warmer, with high temperatures returning into the mid to upper 70s, along with mainly sunny skies.

Weekend To Early Next Week Outlook

By this weekend, things should get more interesting. The warmer air mass should be able to push into the area on Saturday, bringing warmer temperatures with high temperatures returning into the 80s, which is where they should be by this time of the year. Sunday should continue to warm up, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. There is uncertainty with the extent of the warmth, which would also determine how warm Monday gets, though there is the potential for high temperatures to reach the lower 90s again.

Meanwhile, there may also be a chance for thunderstorms. As the next cold front should approach, along with it comes the potential for thunderstorms early next week. As I previously mentioned, there is still some uncertainty with this time period, so it's uncertain when the best chance for thunderstorms would be, though the possibility for storms early next week is there.

June 6 Storm Updates

Below, I will post short updates on the current observations and short term storm forecasts. Once again, I would like to note that today's storms could become dangerous, and should not be taken lightly. My outlook for today is in the post below this one, along with my forecast maps for today.

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4:26 PM: The storms have now ended across most of the area, with some leftover light rain. Today's moderate risk ended up failing, as the biggest risk for thunderstorms ended up in New England, however it only became clear that the worst of the storms would stay to our north not too long before the line moved through.

Temperatures have now dropped into the 70s, and along with the wind switching direction and the lack of severe weather parameters, the threat for severe weather has ended in the area. The next update will be posted tomorrow evening.


2:39 PM: There is no radar shot yet, though a strong thunderstorm has just formed slightly north of Bridgeport, CT. This storm is moving NE, and may affect New Haven, CT within the next 10-20 minutes, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds.

2:32 PM: A strong thunderstorm is currently in north central NJ, and is moving ENE. This cell should affect all of Rockland, NY county and western Passaic, NJ. It may brush northern Bergen county, later moving into Westchester County, NY. This storm is capable of producing gusty winds, small hail and heavy rainfall.



1:51 PM Update: Looking at the latest data, it is possible that the moderate risk may have to be downgraded.

Despite the storms moving towards the area with the higher parameters, they have failed to intensify. Instead, they are weakening and splitting up, and are now nothing more than a scattered thin line of strong to severe thunderstorms, instead of a solid, thick line. In addition, the best parameters are now to our north, and with a much more stable air mass behind this front, it is possible that today's moderate risk may have failed.

That is not to say that there won't be strong/severe thunderstorms, there are still strong thunderstorms currently approaching the western parts of the region that may affect places just north of NYC within the next 2 hours, though at this time, today's outbreak does not seem to live up to its potential.


12:17 PM: Clouds are now moving into the area once again. Due to the period of sunshine we had this morning, temperatures quickly warmed up across the area, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s, however this warm up has now considerably slowed down. The squall line is currently in central Pennsylvania and quickly moving east. Due to the fast motion of this line, it should already begin to affect the western parts of the area within the next 1-2 hours, and move on to the immediate NYC area within the next 1.5 to 3 hours. Updates will be posted on the storms once they reach the area.


11:15 AM: URGENT --- The National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for the whole area. With a 5% to 10% risk for tornadoes today, severe thunderstorms that affect the area have the potential to produce tornadoes, along with damaging wind gusts and hail.

It is also important to note that today's storms will be fast moving. This is going to be especially dangerous, as storms may approach places faster than it may seem. Stay tuned as more details will be posted once the storms reach the area.


10:27 AM: The majority of the area is now under partly sunny skies, which is allowing for temperatures to start rising into the 80s with dew points entering the 70s. This is also allowing for the atmosphere to destabilize, which should enhance the severe weather threat later this afternoon.

Despite the moderate severe thunderstorm risk, it does not mean that the whole area will see strong to severe thunderstorms. There can easily be a case where one thunderstorm becomes stronger and another area of thunderstorms weakens, though that does not mean that today's risk should be taken lightly.

June 6: Dangerous Storms Today

10 AM Update: Current Observations And Today's Forecast

It is currently cloudy across the area, and some places north of New York City are also seeing light rain and thunderstorms. This is due to a large area of rain and thunderstorms to our north ahead of the low pressure, that is currently weakening. This area of clouds and rain is currently preventing the northern Mid Atlantic and the Northeast from destabilizing, which is an important factor in determining today's risk for severe weather.

Looking at the latest satellite, breaks in the clouds are currently forming to our west and should approach the area later this morning, leading to some sunshine, and allowing for the atmosphere to destabilize and for temperatures to rise into the 80s with humid conditions, which should set the stage for this afternoon. If there is enough sunshine, some places southwest of NYC may reach the lower 90s.

Later this afternoon, the cold front should approach the area. Due to high wind shear, along with relatively high CAPE and LI values, conditions ahead of this cold front will be favorable for severe thunderstorms to form and intensify while approaching the area. The main risk today will be for damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes, with other risks including hail, heavy rain and frequent lightning. With the potential for dangerous storms, it is important today to follow the short term weather and take cover should a severe thunderstorm approach.

For the probabilities today, I decided to issue a moderate risk, the first one of the year. Along with it, I included the area in a 5% tornado risk area, 15% hail risk, and 45% risk for damaging wind gusts. The SPC also issued a moderate risk, being the first time we have had such a high probability for severe weather since 2008.

June 5 Storm Updates

Brief updates on today's storms are going to be posted below, as well as an overall view of what is happening across the region.

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4:43 PM: Thunderstorms are already starting to form in the interior Northeast, where a tornado watch has been posted by the SPC. Thunderstorms are also starting to form in north-central Pennsylvania, which may approach our area later this evening. More updates will be posted once the storms reach the area.

7:03 PM Update:

Despite today originally showing signs of at least some thunderstorms, it appears that no strong to severe thunderstorms are going to affect the area into tonight. In my update this morning, I did mention the possibility that storms do not affect the area, and this now appears to be the case, as the closest storms are in northern Pennsylvania and do not appear to be moving SE towards the area. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are still possible tonight, however the main activity tonight should stay to our south, with an area of heavy rain currently moving into southern Pennsylvania and Maryland.

Tomorrow still appears to be more favorable than today for severe weather, however considering that the last few severe weather outbreaks did not live up to their potential, nothing is certain yet regarding tomorrow's strong/severe thunderstorm possibility. If any storms should approach the area, updates will be posted tomorrow, otherwise the regular daily discussion will be posted.