April 30: Severe Thunderstorms On Sunday

Tomorrow is going to be even warmer than today, with high temperatures rising well into the 80s, possibly even reaching 90 degrees. Humid conditions are also expected. This warm spell, however, will quickly come to an end on Sunday.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow should be very warm. With plenty of sunshine, temperatures are going to surge well into the 80s, with parts of the area, including places just south and west of New York City, seeing high temperatures reach the lower 90s. The immediate coast is going to be the only exception, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

Thunderstorms are meanwhile going to be approaching from the west. While they should not reach us yet, places such as western Pennsylvania, West Virginia and far western New York are going to see scattered thunderstorms, some of which may become severe. The rain should not affect our area tomorrow, but Sunday will be a different story.

Severe Thunderstorm Potential On Sunday

Sunday is still expected to be very warm, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, with even more humid conditions, as dew points rise into the 60s. There should be more cloud cover on Sunday than Saturday, however if the immediate New York City area and places further south manage to have more sunshine than clouds, temperatures may rise into the lower 90s once again.

Thunderstorms are expected to be the main problem in the afternoon hours. With a set up allowing for severe weather, including CAPE between 1000 and 1500 j/kg, reaching 2000 to our west, Lift Index between -3 and -5, and bulk shear between 40 and 50 knots, thunderstorms are expected to affect the area during the late afternoon and evening hours, some of which may be strong or severe.

While we should also see locally severe storms, the best chance for severe weather should be to our north and west, from Pennsylvania into central New York, where a 30% risk may be added tomorrow. Below is my current outlook for the severe weather potential, with our area in the eastern edge of the 15% risk area.




Next Week Outlook: Warmth Returns

After the cold front passes through on Monday, bringing additional showers and non-severe thunderstorms, high temperatures are going to cool down into the mid 70s. Afterwards, as a cold front approaches the area, temperatures are going to warm up again by the middle of next week, with 80s potentially returning once again by Wednesday, and mid 80s are possible by Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible with this cold front on between Thursday and Saturday. Afterwards, there is some uncertainty on what happens, though it appears that colder temperatures may return to the area.

April 29: Hot And Humid Weekend Ahead

Today was much warmer than yesterday, with high temperatures returning into the lower 70s in parts of the area. Much warmer temperatures are going to come, however, with parts of the area even reaching 90 degrees again.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will continue the warm up, with sunny skies and warm conditions expected. Temperatures are going to be in the mid to upper 70s in the interior, in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the immediate New York City area, and in the lower 70s along the immediate coast. Tomorrow morning, however, should still be relatively chilly, with low temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the interior areas, and in the mid to upper 40s in the New York City area.

A warm front is going to move through the area tomorrow, and while a few clouds should move in, no rain is expected out of this warm front. As a result, while tonight into tomorrow morning should be chilly, tomorrow night should be mild, with low temperatures in the 50s.

Hot And Humid Weekend

After the warm front passes through, temperatures are going to get much warmer. Saturday will have high temperatures well into the 80s across the area except for the immediate coast. Parts of the immediate New York City area are even likely to reach the lower 90s! Unlike the previous warm spell in early April, when dew points were in the 40s, dew points are expected to be in the 50s and 60s in this case, which would lead to more humid conditions than in early April.

Sunday should be slightly colder than Saturday, as the cold front slowly approaches the area. It now appears that the timing of the front has been delayed to Monday. Despite this, thunderstorms are still expected on Sunday, and may be strong to severe across parts of the area. A Blue Alert has been issued for the severe weather potential.

After the cold front passes through, temperatures are going to cool down into the 70s, with showers returning by the middle of next week.

April 28: Weekend Warmth, Storm Update

As the storm exits the area, temperatures are going to begin quickly warming up. By the weekend, we should see temperatures well into the 80s, however this warm spell is going to be relatively short lived.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow should be very different from today. While today was mainly cloudy and chilly, with high temperatures in the 50s, tomorrow will be mainly sunny, with temperatures warming into the mid-upper 60s, with parts of the New York City area seeing temperatures in the lower 70s. Despite the warm afternoon temperatures, however, frost is expected in the northwestern parts of the area tonight, with lows in the lower 30s.

The only area to not have mainly sunny skies is expected to be Maine, where clouds from the storm will slowly exit, along with scattered showers.

Weekend Outlook, Sunday Thunderstorms

Unlike last weekend, this weekend should be very warm. Temperatures will be well into the 80s across the area on Saturday, except for the immediate coast, that should stay mainly in the 70s. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon, with mild overnight lows, in the 60s across the area.

Sunday bring the potential of more widespread thunderstorms, potentially strong or severe. As the cold front approaches the area, thunderstorms are expected. At this time, the probability of severe weather is uncertain, however the potential is there for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, which I mentioned in my 5-day outlook.

Monday should be colder, with high temperatures in the 70s, with a few locations possibly reaching 80 degrees. The rest of the week continues to cool down, with high temperatures likely back into the 60s by Wednesday.

April 27: Heat To Return This Weekend

For the past few weeks, we have been in a generally chilly pattern, which also brought most of this month's rainfall. This chilly pattern is about to end, with warmer temperatures expected to return. The question is how warm it gets.

Frost Potential Tonight:

As a colder air mass briefly moves in, temperatures tonight are expected to drop with mainly clear skies. The northwestern parts of the area should see low temperatures in the lower to mid 30s, possibly in the upper 20s, leading to parts of that area seeing frost.

Tomorrow's Forecast:

Tomorrow is going to be the last of the chilly and mainly cloudy days. Temperatures are still expected to be chilly, with high temperatures in the lower 50s in the north and western parts of the area, and in the mid to upper 50s for the immediate New York City area. Windy conditions are also expected, mainly towards the coast.

Mostly cloudy skies are expected in the area, with a few showers possible. Most of the region should be dry, with the precipitation expected to stay in the Northeast, bringing rain and high elevation snow. The storm is expected to exit the Northeast on Thursday.


Late Week To Weekend Warm Spell

Thursday should be much different than tomorrow, with temperatures quickly warming up. High temperatures should be generally in the mid to upper 60s. Friday will continue to warm up as a warmer air mass moves into the area, with high temperatures in the mid 70s, reaching the upper 70s in parts of the New York City area. The immediate coast should stay colder, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

Both Saturday and Sunday are expected to be very warm. While the immediate coast should stay colder, in the 70s, New York City is expected to reach the mid to potentially upper 80s, with temperatures expected to reach the upper 80s south and west of New York City. If the warmer case scenario verifies, even 90 degrees may be possible in parts of New Jersey, however this is still very uncertain, and depends on the timing of the cold front. There is still uncertainty on the day of the warmest temperatures and how warm it gets, which could end up being between Saturday and Monday, with the warmest temperature ranging from the lower 80s to the lower 90s.

A cold front is expected to move through on Monday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. At this time, severe thunderstorms are not expected, however they are still possible, especially if the models change to show a more favorable set up for severe weather. After this cold front, high temperatures cool back down into the lower 70s.

April 26: Summer Conditions To Return

After the early April warm spell, temperatures became much colder, generally staying in the 60s, with today only staying in the lower to mid 50s across the area. This is going to change by the end of this week, however we still have another few days of chilly conditions before the temperatures warm up.

Rain is expected to continue through tonight, however a brief break from the rain is expected until at least 12 AM, followed by additional light to moderate rain. The widespread rain should end by tomorrow morning, with some clearing in the cloud cover by tomorrow afternoon. Rain amounts should end up in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range.

Tomorrow's Forecast:

Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than today in the area, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 50s inland, and in the mid to upper 50s for the immediate NYC area. A few parts of the region should see much colder temperatures, including southern Virginia, where high temperatures are going to drop into the 60s from the 80s, and in northern New England, with high temperatures in the 40s and 30s.

A few showers are expected in the morning, though the rest of the day should be generally dry with a scattered shower possible. The majority of the precipitation should fall in central and northern New England, with several inches of wet snow expected in the higher elevations.

Mid To Late Week Outlook: Warming Up

As colder temperatures continue to stay in the area, high temperatures are still expected to be in the 50s with a few lower 60s possible on Wednesday, with a few scattered showers possible along with windy conditions. By Thursday, however, a much warmer air mass should begin moving into the area, and as a result, temperatures are going to quickly warm into the mid to upper 60s across the area. Friday will continue this trend, with high temperatures in the lower 70s, with a few mid 70s possible in the immediate New York City area, away from the coast.

Summer-Like Weekend, Next Potential Storm

As I have previously mentioned, there is the potential for temperatures to return into the 80s by next weekend. The models have trended warmer for this time period, and even the cold-biased GFS model shows temperatures reaching the lower 80s by early next week.

Saturday is expected to reach the lower 80s in the northwestern parts of the area, and in the lower to mid 80s for the New York City area except for the immediate coast and parts of Long Island, which should have temperatures in the 70s. Sunday is expected to continue warming up, with high temperatures reaching the mid to potentially upper 80s in parts of the area.

There is also the possibility of thunderstorms between Sunday and Tuesday. While there is uncertainty with the timing, the models show a cold front moving through during this time period, bringing scattered thunderstorms during this time period. After this cold front, high temperatures are expected to cool down, however high temperatures in the 50s are not expected to return.

April 24 Evening Update

As I will not be doing an update on Sunday, below is my forecast for Monday, as well as some current storm observations.

Monday's Forecast:

Monday is expected to be chilly and rainy as well, however there should not be as much rain as Sunday. High temperatures are expected to be generally the same as tomorrow, if not slightly colder, in the lower to mid 50s.

Light rain is expected throughout the day, with rain possibly increasing in intensity by the late afternoon due to the low pressure approaching from our west. Severe thunderstorms will not be a risk for the southern Mid Atlantic on Monday, however some thunderstorms are expected there.


Current Storm Observations:

The rain is quickly increasing in coverage area and intensity, as shown by the latest radar loop, as well as the latest radar image, posted below. Light to occasionally moderate rain is currently falling across the area. Heavier rain is expected to approach from Virginia by later tonight or Sunday morning, however it is possible that a dry slot, currently in northern West Virginia on the radar, keeps the heaviest rain to our south.

April 24: Storm Update, Long Range Warmth

Today is expected to be a very nice day, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures reaching the lower 70s in parts of the area. Enjoy the nice conditions today, because the next few days are going to be the opposite.

Tomorrow's Forecast:

Tomorrow is going to be much colder than today. With the clouds and rain in place, temperatures will struggle to warm up, and are expected to remain generally steady throughout the day, in the lower to mid 50s. Meanwhile, due to the warm front to our south, there is going to be a sharp temperature gradient. While Philadelphia should have highs in the upper 50s, Washington DC is expected to have temperatures in the 70s, with parts of Virginia in the 80s.

Widespread rain once again returns to the region tomorrow. With rain starting tonight, heavy rain is expected until tomorrow afternoon, followed by lighter rain as the first wave moves out of the area. Rainfall amounts between 3/4 and 1 inch are expected by this time. South of the warm front, shown as the red line on this map, thunderstorms are expected, with severe thunderstorms in southern and eastern Virginia.

Sunday-Tuesday Storm Update

As with yesterday, the models continued to trend wetter, with the NAM and the GGEM now showing over 2 inches of rain for the area. Yesterday's forecast remains generally the same, though there are a few minor changes.

The rain is still expected to begin tonight, falling heavy at times until tomorrow afternoon. I slightly increased the forecast rain amounts, now expecting 0.9 to 1.3 inch of rain by Sunday afternoon. Lighter rain is then expected for Sunday afternoon and evening. The main difference, however, is that the rest of the models are also showing an additional wave of rain late on Sunday night, as the NAM showed yesterday. As a result, I added moderate rain in the forecast for late Sunday night, with an additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain.

By the time that the rain ends on Tuesday night, at least 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain are expected. Flooding is possible in parts of the area, especially with the heaviest rain tonight and Sundy morning.

Warm Spell Update

The warm up is still shown on some models, and while there is uncertainty, if the warmer models verify, we could see temperatures in the 80s once again. The 06z GFS kept the cold air mass in place too long, completely suppressing the warm up and keeping high temperatures in the 60s, which at this time is an unlikely scenario. In the previous warm spells, the GFS also generally kept a cold air mass in place longer than the actual result. At this time, I am expecting a generally steady warm up, with temperatures back into the 70s by Friday, reaching the mid to upper 70s by Saturday, though Saturday could end up slightly colder or warmer.