Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Mar 31: Weekend And Next Week Warmth
***New Blog Additions***
I am now adding 2 new pages to the blog. The first page, titled "Stormy Weather Outlook," is a brief summary of the weather for the next week or two, which also mentions any possible storm that might affect the area in the longer range. The second page, titled "Storm Summary," is going to show observed rain or snow amounts from previous storms in the area, occasionally with some radar archieves.
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The rain and chilly conditions have finally ended across the area, with dry conditions across the area today. Parts of Pennsylvania yesterday, even the Philadelphia area, ended up seeing sleet and some wet snow out of this storm, with several inches of wet snow accumulating in isolated areas in northeastern Pennsylvania.
Tonight should be relatively chilly, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s inland, and in the lower to mid 40s in the New York City area. Tomorrow will already be much warmer, with highs in the lower 70s across the area except for Long Island and the immediate coast, which should stay in the upper 50s and 60s.
Weekend Warm Spell
Friday should be the warmest day across the area since March 20, when temperatures peaked in the mid 70s in parts of the area. While the immediate coast should stay in the 60s, the rest of the area should reach the lower to mid 70s, with the upper 70s in the western half of New Jersey. Saturday and Sunday are both going to be very warm in the area, with highs in the mid to upper 70s away from the coast, and even the immediate coast might reach the upper 60s. High temperatures could reach the 80s up to central or even north central New Jersey.
Overnight temperatures, meanwhile, will be much warmer than they previously were, and should be in the lower to mid 50s across the area except for the immediate coast, which should be slightly colder.
Next Week Outlook
As a weak cold front approaches the area, temperatures are going to be lower on Monday, in the lower 70s. No rain is expected out of this cold front, and partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected at most out of this cold front. High temperatures on Tuesday will be only in the mid to upper 60s, however as another storm organizes itself well west of the area, temperatures are going to be much warmer on Wednesday, as warmer air re-enters the area.
High temperatures on Wednesday and possibly Thursday are likely to be back into the 70s, and even 80 degrees might be possible in some places in the warmer case scenario. The next storm might affect the area late next week, with some rain possible, however details are still uncertain at this time.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Mar 30: Heavy Rain Ending, Records Broken
The worst part of the storm ended up arriving later than I originally expected, in the morning to late morning hours instead of the late overnight to early morning hours. Despite the timing, the storm still had the same effects, with an additional 1-4 inches of rain falling across the area, and the heaviest amounts falling over Long Island and Connecticut.
For the short term, areas of light rain with occasional moderate to heavy rain are expected to move through the area, with additional rainfall until this evening up to 1/4 inch, with locally higher amounts. Afterwards, cloudy skies are expected until tomorrow with an occasional rain shower.
Wettest March On Record
Today's storm is the third significant rainstorm this month to affect the area, after March 12-15 and March 22-23. With this storm added to the rain totals so far this month, parts of the New York City area have broken their records for the wettest March on record, including JFK and La Guardia airports in New York, Islip in Long Island, and Bridgeport in Connecticut. Central Park is at least 0.3 inch of rain away from breaking their record of 10.54 inches.
The stormy pattern this month continued the active pattern from February, when consistent heavy snowstorms set the record for the snowiest February and the snowiest month on record, though unlike February, the precipitation fell in the form of rain, not snow.
Fortunately, for areas that were hit hard with flooding, the stormy pattern is ending for now with this storm. After the storm exits, a high pressure stays near the area, with no significant rainfall expected in the next 7-10 days.
Weekend, Next Week Forecast
It now appears that the warm spell will not be as warm as I originally expected it to be, with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s, not the upper 70s to lower 80s, and the warmest day being Saturday, not Sunday. My Short Term Forecast, now extended to 5 days, shows high temperatures in the 70s this weekend, peaking on Saturday in the mid to upper 70s.
Temperatures start cooling down early next week, with Monday's highs in the upper 60s. A weak cold front moves through on Tuesday with scattered rain showers, with the high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s. On Wednesday, temperatures should start to warm up again, reaching the mid to upper 60s.
For the short term, areas of light rain with occasional moderate to heavy rain are expected to move through the area, with additional rainfall until this evening up to 1/4 inch, with locally higher amounts. Afterwards, cloudy skies are expected until tomorrow with an occasional rain shower.
Wettest March On Record
Today's storm is the third significant rainstorm this month to affect the area, after March 12-15 and March 22-23. With this storm added to the rain totals so far this month, parts of the New York City area have broken their records for the wettest March on record, including JFK and La Guardia airports in New York, Islip in Long Island, and Bridgeport in Connecticut. Central Park is at least 0.3 inch of rain away from breaking their record of 10.54 inches.
The stormy pattern this month continued the active pattern from February, when consistent heavy snowstorms set the record for the snowiest February and the snowiest month on record, though unlike February, the precipitation fell in the form of rain, not snow.
Fortunately, for areas that were hit hard with flooding, the stormy pattern is ending for now with this storm. After the storm exits, a high pressure stays near the area, with no significant rainfall expected in the next 7-10 days.
Weekend, Next Week Forecast
It now appears that the warm spell will not be as warm as I originally expected it to be, with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s, not the upper 70s to lower 80s, and the warmest day being Saturday, not Sunday. My Short Term Forecast, now extended to 5 days, shows high temperatures in the 70s this weekend, peaking on Saturday in the mid to upper 70s.
Temperatures start cooling down early next week, with Monday's highs in the upper 60s. A weak cold front moves through on Tuesday with scattered rain showers, with the high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s. On Wednesday, temperatures should start to warm up again, reaching the mid to upper 60s.
Monday, March 29, 2010
Mar 29: Heavy Rain, Wind And Flooding Tonight
A major storm with heavy rain and flooding is currently affecting the area, with rain total between 1 inch in parts of northern New Jersey, to as much as 3 inches in southern New Jersey, parts of Long Island and Connecticut. The storm is expected to continue to affect the area until Wednesday, with each part of the storm below.
Late Afternoon To Evening Forecast:
For the evening hours, it appears that places west of New York City should stay dry with an isolated shower or two, however it will be a completely different story in the eastern half of Connecticut and Long Island. Heavy rain is expected to continue through the evening hours, with up to 1/2 inch of rain possible between 4 and 8 PM.
Tonight To Tuesday Morning Forecast:
The worst part of the storm is expected to arrive late tonight. The low pressure is expected to intensify and move towards the area, causing windy conditions to develop, with gusts up to 50-60 mph possible along the coast. Along with the wind, heavy rain is expected to continue in Long Island, while moderate to heavy rain re-enters New Jersey after midnight. The heaviest rain is expected to be in Long Island and Connecticut, where an additional 2-3 inches of rain are possible until late tomorrow morning with locally higher amounts, with the lightest rain in western New Jersey, where less than 1.5 inch of rain is expected.
Tuesday Afternoon, Rest Of Storm:
By Tuesday afternoon, the worst of the rain should have passed the area. Light to occasionally moderate rain is still expected, though winds may still remain an issue, and may not calm down until Tuesday evening. Any leftover light rain should end on Wednesday morning.
Since my last update on Saturday, the models shifted the heaviest rain axis to Long Island and Connecticut, which is what we are also seeing now with the heaviest rain located over those areas. Including what fell so far, a storm total of 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected in Long Island and Connecticut, with locally higher amounts up to 7-8 inches possible.
New York City and northeastern New Jersey should still get heavy rain, but not as much as Long Island, with the storm total including what fell so far between 2 and 4 inches. Northwestern New Jersey should end up with a storm total of at least 2 to 3 inches of rain.
Warm Spell For Next Weekend
Temperatures are expected to warm up quickly after the storm leaves, already reaching the upper 60s on Thursday. Friday will be warmer with highs in the lower to mid 70s. The warmest day is expected to be Saturday, with high temperatures in the upper 70s across the area except for the immediate coast. Some places may reach 80 degrees on Saturday.
Sunday and Monday will be slightly colder, as a cold front approaches the area, however at this time it appears that only light rain will fall out of this cold front.
Late Afternoon To Evening Forecast:
For the evening hours, it appears that places west of New York City should stay dry with an isolated shower or two, however it will be a completely different story in the eastern half of Connecticut and Long Island. Heavy rain is expected to continue through the evening hours, with up to 1/2 inch of rain possible between 4 and 8 PM.
Tonight To Tuesday Morning Forecast:
The worst part of the storm is expected to arrive late tonight. The low pressure is expected to intensify and move towards the area, causing windy conditions to develop, with gusts up to 50-60 mph possible along the coast. Along with the wind, heavy rain is expected to continue in Long Island, while moderate to heavy rain re-enters New Jersey after midnight. The heaviest rain is expected to be in Long Island and Connecticut, where an additional 2-3 inches of rain are possible until late tomorrow morning with locally higher amounts, with the lightest rain in western New Jersey, where less than 1.5 inch of rain is expected.
Tuesday Afternoon, Rest Of Storm:
By Tuesday afternoon, the worst of the rain should have passed the area. Light to occasionally moderate rain is still expected, though winds may still remain an issue, and may not calm down until Tuesday evening. Any leftover light rain should end on Wednesday morning.
Since my last update on Saturday, the models shifted the heaviest rain axis to Long Island and Connecticut, which is what we are also seeing now with the heaviest rain located over those areas. Including what fell so far, a storm total of 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected in Long Island and Connecticut, with locally higher amounts up to 7-8 inches possible.
New York City and northeastern New Jersey should still get heavy rain, but not as much as Long Island, with the storm total including what fell so far between 2 and 4 inches. Northwestern New Jersey should end up with a storm total of at least 2 to 3 inches of rain.
Warm Spell For Next Weekend
Temperatures are expected to warm up quickly after the storm leaves, already reaching the upper 60s on Thursday. Friday will be warmer with highs in the lower to mid 70s. The warmest day is expected to be Saturday, with high temperatures in the upper 70s across the area except for the immediate coast. Some places may reach 80 degrees on Saturday.
Sunday and Monday will be slightly colder, as a cold front approaches the area, however at this time it appears that only light rain will fall out of this cold front.
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Mar 27: Heavy Rain And Flooding Problems Return
After a very cold morning, with temperatures dropping into the 20s across most of the area, and even some 10s in the northernmost parts of the area, temperatures should warm up through the afternoon, howevere today will still be chilly, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s.
Tonight, while still chilly, won't be as cold as last night, with temperatures in the lower to mid 30s for the immediate NYC area, in the mid to upper 20s further north, and in the lower to mid 20s in the northwestern areas. Tomorrow should be warmer than today, with highs in the lower 50s, and increasing clouds through the day.
Monday And Tuesday Heavy Rain Potential (Updated in the afternoon)
When updating the forecast on Saturday afternoon, I made some revisions to the short term forecast, including extending the rain into Tuesday and adding heavy rain on Monday night. Heavy rain will continue into Tuesday morning, which will only extend the duration of the rain event, making any flooding problems even worse.
The storm is expected to start on Sunday night, with light to moderate rain starting in the overnight hours. Low temperatures will be steady at first in the mid to upper 40s across the area, and are expected to rise into the lower 50s by Monday morning. On Monday, heavy rain will develop and is expected to affect the area during the day, producing rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with some higher amounts.
From the latest model runs, it seems that there won't be a break in the rain on Monday night, but the heavy rain should continue. There may be a break in the heavy rain on Monday evening, though it is expected to resume afterwards, after another area of heavy rain moves onshore as the low pressure intensifies offshore. As a result, heavy rain redevelops overnight on Monday, with an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain and locally higher amounts. As the low pressure approaches on Monday night, strong winds should become an issue once again, with gusts up to 40-50 mph possible.
On Tuesday, the rain may still be moderate to heavy in the morning, though lighter rain should fall by the afternoon hours. An additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is possible, with the highest rain amounts north and east of New York City. The windy conditions are expected to continue through the day, ending on Tuesday night. Any remaining rain showers should end by Wednesday morning, with clearing skies on Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures on Tuesday will be colder, in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area, with warmer temperatures returning on Wednesday, in the mid to upper 50s.
This storm is expected to have a lot of moisture involved, which will help produce heavy rain amounts. By the time that the storm ends on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, at least 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected, with locally higher amounts. Flooding is expected to be a problem once again for areas that were hit hard with flooding in the previous storms. Winds may also become a problem once again, with wind gusts up to 40-50 mph possible at this time.
Very Warm Temperatures For Next Weekend
After the storm exits on Wednesday, a warm air mass is expected to enter the area. Along with it, temperatures are expected to quickly warm up during the late week. By Thursday, high temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s, already reaching the lower to mid 70s by Friday. Temperatures continue to warm up even beyond that, reaching near 80 degrees by Saturday, which is the average high temperature in early June! Temperatures are likely to reach at least the upper 70s to lower 80s on Sunday, though afterwards the temperatures should cool down a little.
Tonight, while still chilly, won't be as cold as last night, with temperatures in the lower to mid 30s for the immediate NYC area, in the mid to upper 20s further north, and in the lower to mid 20s in the northwestern areas. Tomorrow should be warmer than today, with highs in the lower 50s, and increasing clouds through the day.
Monday And Tuesday Heavy Rain Potential (Updated in the afternoon)
When updating the forecast on Saturday afternoon, I made some revisions to the short term forecast, including extending the rain into Tuesday and adding heavy rain on Monday night. Heavy rain will continue into Tuesday morning, which will only extend the duration of the rain event, making any flooding problems even worse.
The storm is expected to start on Sunday night, with light to moderate rain starting in the overnight hours. Low temperatures will be steady at first in the mid to upper 40s across the area, and are expected to rise into the lower 50s by Monday morning. On Monday, heavy rain will develop and is expected to affect the area during the day, producing rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with some higher amounts.
From the latest model runs, it seems that there won't be a break in the rain on Monday night, but the heavy rain should continue. There may be a break in the heavy rain on Monday evening, though it is expected to resume afterwards, after another area of heavy rain moves onshore as the low pressure intensifies offshore. As a result, heavy rain redevelops overnight on Monday, with an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain and locally higher amounts. As the low pressure approaches on Monday night, strong winds should become an issue once again, with gusts up to 40-50 mph possible.
On Tuesday, the rain may still be moderate to heavy in the morning, though lighter rain should fall by the afternoon hours. An additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is possible, with the highest rain amounts north and east of New York City. The windy conditions are expected to continue through the day, ending on Tuesday night. Any remaining rain showers should end by Wednesday morning, with clearing skies on Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures on Tuesday will be colder, in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area, with warmer temperatures returning on Wednesday, in the mid to upper 50s.
This storm is expected to have a lot of moisture involved, which will help produce heavy rain amounts. By the time that the storm ends on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, at least 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected, with locally higher amounts. Flooding is expected to be a problem once again for areas that were hit hard with flooding in the previous storms. Winds may also become a problem once again, with wind gusts up to 40-50 mph possible at this time.
Very Warm Temperatures For Next Weekend
After the storm exits on Wednesday, a warm air mass is expected to enter the area. Along with it, temperatures are expected to quickly warm up during the late week. By Thursday, high temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s, already reaching the lower to mid 70s by Friday. Temperatures continue to warm up even beyond that, reaching near 80 degrees by Saturday, which is the average high temperature in early June! Temperatures are likely to reach at least the upper 70s to lower 80s on Sunday, though afterwards the temperatures should cool down a little.
Friday, March 26, 2010
Mar 26: Soaking Rain Monday, Summer-Like Heat Follows
The storm this morning failed to bring snow to much of the area, as temperatures were not cold enough. Yesterday, I noted the potential for some flakes away from the coast if it was cold enough, however temperatures ended up warmer than the models showed, and with precipitation having quickly moved out over the morning, we did not end up with snow.
It is currently mainly sunny across most of the region, with more clouds further east. Skies are expected to be clear tonight, and with the cold air mass in place, temperatures should drop into the 20s overnight, and into the 10s further north and west. Tomorrow will be sunny and chilly, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s across the area.
Several Inches Of Heavy Rain Possible On Monday
As I have mentioned over the past few days, a storm with heavy rain should impact the area on Monday, with the potential for over an inch of rain. At this time, light rain should start falling on Sunday night, and should intensify overnight and become moderate to heavy on Monday. The heaviest rain should end by Monday evening, though additional rain is expected through at least Tuesday afternoon.
The latest model solutions except for the GFS are showing a very wet solution with this storm, with some models showing up to 2 inches of rain across the area. This storm should be a relatively strong storm, and while there is still uncertainty on small details, such as the axis of heavy rain and the amounts, rainfall amounts of potentially 1 to 3 inches are possible on Monday, with locally higher amounts.
Summer-Like Heat To Follow Rain
After the rain ends, despite Tuesday still being chilly, Wednesday should be much warmer, with high temperatures already reaching the upper 50s to potentially the lower 60s for parts of the area. Thursday's high temperatures are expected to be in the 60s, and Friday may bring the return of 70+ degrees to the area.
Afterwards, though, it's only going to get warmer. While most models have not reached the weekend time frame yet, we should see temperatures well into the 70s this weekend, with 80+ degrees even possible in the warmer case scenario. While there is still uncertainty on exactly how warm it gets, this warm spell should bring an early taste of summer for the area.
It is currently mainly sunny across most of the region, with more clouds further east. Skies are expected to be clear tonight, and with the cold air mass in place, temperatures should drop into the 20s overnight, and into the 10s further north and west. Tomorrow will be sunny and chilly, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s across the area.
Several Inches Of Heavy Rain Possible On Monday
As I have mentioned over the past few days, a storm with heavy rain should impact the area on Monday, with the potential for over an inch of rain. At this time, light rain should start falling on Sunday night, and should intensify overnight and become moderate to heavy on Monday. The heaviest rain should end by Monday evening, though additional rain is expected through at least Tuesday afternoon.
The latest model solutions except for the GFS are showing a very wet solution with this storm, with some models showing up to 2 inches of rain across the area. This storm should be a relatively strong storm, and while there is still uncertainty on small details, such as the axis of heavy rain and the amounts, rainfall amounts of potentially 1 to 3 inches are possible on Monday, with locally higher amounts.
Summer-Like Heat To Follow Rain
After the rain ends, despite Tuesday still being chilly, Wednesday should be much warmer, with high temperatures already reaching the upper 50s to potentially the lower 60s for parts of the area. Thursday's high temperatures are expected to be in the 60s, and Friday may bring the return of 70+ degrees to the area.
Afterwards, though, it's only going to get warmer. While most models have not reached the weekend time frame yet, we should see temperatures well into the 70s this weekend, with 80+ degrees even possible in the warmer case scenario. While there is still uncertainty on exactly how warm it gets, this warm spell should bring an early taste of summer for the area.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Mar 25: Light Snow Potential Tomorrow
Rain, Some Snow Through Tomorrow
We are currently seeing cloudy skies, with areas of light rain approaching. This should develop into a steady, moderate rain overnight, with at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain expected. The steadiest rain should fall late tonight into tomorrow morning.
What appears to be different now is that places inland, away from the coast, may end up with some snow flakes if it is cold enough. It now appears that the cold air mass will cause temperatures to drop throughout the day on Friday, with the precipitation ending in the afternoon. While uncertain, the timing may turn out enough so that places farther away from the coast might see a brief period of light snow. No snow accumulation is expected, however, as temperatures are not expected to be supportive of accumulations, as well as any snow generally being light.
Chilly And Dry Weekend
Any precipitation should end by tomorrow afternoon, with clearing skies and dropping temperatures. By the overnight hours, places well north and west of NYC should have low temperatures below 20 degrees, the immediate suburbs should be in the lower to mid 20s, and New York City should be in the upper 20s. Saturday will be mainly sunny, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s.
Sunday will be warmer, with high temperatures generally in the lower 50s, though there will be increasing clouds ahead of the next storm, that should affect the area on Monday.
Heavy Rain And Flooding Potential Returns Monday
The next storm approaches the area on Sunday night, and once again brings heavy rain and flooding possibilities to the area. At this time, the rain is expected to start falling on Sunday night, with periods of heavy rain on Monday. The rain should end by Tuesday morning. The model solutions show at least 1 to 2 inches of rain across the area. There is still some uncertainty with the storm, including the exact track, though there is likely to be heavy rain out of this storm.
Warmer Conditions To Return Next Weekend
After the storm exits the area on Tuesday, temperatures are expected to warm up and return to at least average levels. There should be a developing warm up in the Plains and Midwest, though at first, it would be blocked from reaching the area. As a result, temperatures would only be near average to slightly above average through at least Thursday. Afterwards, the warm up will be able to push further east, and temperatures are expected to warm up even further, with 70+ degrees potentially returning into the area by next weekend.
We are currently seeing cloudy skies, with areas of light rain approaching. This should develop into a steady, moderate rain overnight, with at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain expected. The steadiest rain should fall late tonight into tomorrow morning.
What appears to be different now is that places inland, away from the coast, may end up with some snow flakes if it is cold enough. It now appears that the cold air mass will cause temperatures to drop throughout the day on Friday, with the precipitation ending in the afternoon. While uncertain, the timing may turn out enough so that places farther away from the coast might see a brief period of light snow. No snow accumulation is expected, however, as temperatures are not expected to be supportive of accumulations, as well as any snow generally being light.
Chilly And Dry Weekend
Any precipitation should end by tomorrow afternoon, with clearing skies and dropping temperatures. By the overnight hours, places well north and west of NYC should have low temperatures below 20 degrees, the immediate suburbs should be in the lower to mid 20s, and New York City should be in the upper 20s. Saturday will be mainly sunny, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s.
Sunday will be warmer, with high temperatures generally in the lower 50s, though there will be increasing clouds ahead of the next storm, that should affect the area on Monday.
Heavy Rain And Flooding Potential Returns Monday
The next storm approaches the area on Sunday night, and once again brings heavy rain and flooding possibilities to the area. At this time, the rain is expected to start falling on Sunday night, with periods of heavy rain on Monday. The rain should end by Tuesday morning. The model solutions show at least 1 to 2 inches of rain across the area. There is still some uncertainty with the storm, including the exact track, though there is likely to be heavy rain out of this storm.
Warmer Conditions To Return Next Weekend
After the storm exits the area on Tuesday, temperatures are expected to warm up and return to at least average levels. There should be a developing warm up in the Plains and Midwest, though at first, it would be blocked from reaching the area. As a result, temperatures would only be near average to slightly above average through at least Thursday. Afterwards, the warm up will be able to push further east, and temperatures are expected to warm up even further, with 70+ degrees potentially returning into the area by next weekend.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Mar 24: Stormy Pattern Update
Forecast For The Remainder Of This Week
Tomorrow should be another mild day, with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area, though we should be seeing increased cloud cover, already becoming cloudy by tomorrow afternoon, ahead of the next storm approaching from our west. Temperatures will go down into the upper 30s for the northwestern areas, and the lower 40s for the New York City area, and are expected to remain generally steady after midnight.
On Thursday night, the storm continues to spread east, with rain starting to fall in the western areas by the late afternoon hours and for the rest of the area tomorrow evening. The rain is expected to intensify and become moderate at times, with the highest rain amounts on Friday morning.
Meanwhile, a cold air mass will be pushing into the Northeast, causing the storm to start moving offshore and away from the area. While there should be enough precipitation in the Northeast to result in light snow with some accumulations, the storm will already have left the area when the cold air does reach the NYC Metro. Some snow could fall in northwestern New Jersey and Orange County in New York, however little to no accumulation is expected.
The rain is expected to end by late Friday morning, clearing skies by the afternoon. At least 1/2 inch of rain is expected across the area, with locally higher amounts. For the rest of Friday, temperatures will be steady in the morning and early afternoon hours, then should start to drop by the late afternoon hours. Windy conditions are also possible, with winds up to 20-25 mph for the NYC area and the coast, and gusts occasionally up to 30 mph.
Cold Saturday, Warmer Sunday
The coldest temperatures since late March are going to affect the area on Friday night. With a cold air mass entering the area, and with clear skies allowing for radiational cooling, temperatures are going to steadily drop across the area, and should be in the 20s across most of the area except for the immediate coast. Parts of the northwestern areas in the higher elevations might even have lows slightly below 20 degrees.
Saturday should be sunny, however the temperatures should be colder than average. High temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 40s across the area, with the coldest temperatures north and northeast of New York City. Saturday night won't be as cold as the previous night was, with low temperatures returning into the upper 20s and 30s for the area, and Sunday will already have high temperatures returning into the lower 50s.
Monday And Tuesday: Heavy Rain, Flooding Possible
The dry conditions won't last for long, as another storm approaches the area on Monday, and may bring another heavy rain possibility. At this time, light rain is expected to start on Sunday night or Monday morning, with periods of rain, heavy at times, through Tuesday. This storm, combined with recent heavy rains, may cause additional flooding concerns for the area.
While there is still uncertainty on some details of the storm, looking at some of today's model runs, they have highlighted the area as a part of the heavy rain zone, with over 1 inch of rain and potentially over 2 inches of rain. Below is what I am thinking at this time that the scenario for the storm could be, though there is still uncertainty with the heavy rain zone, as it may end up further north or south.
Late Week Warm Spell Potential
As I mentioned yesterday, there is the potential for a warm spell. While it is becoming more likely for places in the Midwest and in the Plains, there is a backdoor cold front that may prevent the much warmer temperatures from reaching the area at first. As a result, temperatures would probably warm up to the 50s and 60s at most during the middle of next week, and if the warm spell is able to advance further east by the late week, then temperatures might be able to reach the 60s and 70s by next weekend.
Tomorrow should be another mild day, with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area, though we should be seeing increased cloud cover, already becoming cloudy by tomorrow afternoon, ahead of the next storm approaching from our west. Temperatures will go down into the upper 30s for the northwestern areas, and the lower 40s for the New York City area, and are expected to remain generally steady after midnight.
On Thursday night, the storm continues to spread east, with rain starting to fall in the western areas by the late afternoon hours and for the rest of the area tomorrow evening. The rain is expected to intensify and become moderate at times, with the highest rain amounts on Friday morning.
Meanwhile, a cold air mass will be pushing into the Northeast, causing the storm to start moving offshore and away from the area. While there should be enough precipitation in the Northeast to result in light snow with some accumulations, the storm will already have left the area when the cold air does reach the NYC Metro. Some snow could fall in northwestern New Jersey and Orange County in New York, however little to no accumulation is expected.
The rain is expected to end by late Friday morning, clearing skies by the afternoon. At least 1/2 inch of rain is expected across the area, with locally higher amounts. For the rest of Friday, temperatures will be steady in the morning and early afternoon hours, then should start to drop by the late afternoon hours. Windy conditions are also possible, with winds up to 20-25 mph for the NYC area and the coast, and gusts occasionally up to 30 mph.
Cold Saturday, Warmer Sunday
The coldest temperatures since late March are going to affect the area on Friday night. With a cold air mass entering the area, and with clear skies allowing for radiational cooling, temperatures are going to steadily drop across the area, and should be in the 20s across most of the area except for the immediate coast. Parts of the northwestern areas in the higher elevations might even have lows slightly below 20 degrees.
Saturday should be sunny, however the temperatures should be colder than average. High temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 40s across the area, with the coldest temperatures north and northeast of New York City. Saturday night won't be as cold as the previous night was, with low temperatures returning into the upper 20s and 30s for the area, and Sunday will already have high temperatures returning into the lower 50s.
Monday And Tuesday: Heavy Rain, Flooding Possible
The dry conditions won't last for long, as another storm approaches the area on Monday, and may bring another heavy rain possibility. At this time, light rain is expected to start on Sunday night or Monday morning, with periods of rain, heavy at times, through Tuesday. This storm, combined with recent heavy rains, may cause additional flooding concerns for the area.
While there is still uncertainty on some details of the storm, looking at some of today's model runs, they have highlighted the area as a part of the heavy rain zone, with over 1 inch of rain and potentially over 2 inches of rain. Below is what I am thinking at this time that the scenario for the storm could be, though there is still uncertainty with the heavy rain zone, as it may end up further north or south.
Late Week Warm Spell Potential
As I mentioned yesterday, there is the potential for a warm spell. While it is becoming more likely for places in the Midwest and in the Plains, there is a backdoor cold front that may prevent the much warmer temperatures from reaching the area at first. As a result, temperatures would probably warm up to the 50s and 60s at most during the middle of next week, and if the warm spell is able to advance further east by the late week, then temperatures might be able to reach the 60s and 70s by next weekend.
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