July 8: Heavy Rain On Saturday

With an onshore flow, the area finally cooled down today, with the first sub-90 degree day in nearly a week. In addition, mainly cloudy skies were observed today, along with increased humidity, and rain made a return for a few parts of the area, as a few isolated yet heavy storms affected places west of New York City.

While the heat did not affect the area, it was still in full force well to our west, in places that were not affected by the back door cold front. High temperatures again reached the 100s for parts of the Mid Atlantic. For these places, the heat should end on Saturday with the cold front, which should bring the first chance of a widespread heavy rain event to the area since early June.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow should be another day similar to today. With a SE wind persisting, the hottest conditions will stay to our south and west, with temperatures reaching the upper 80s. Humid conditions are expected again, with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The humid air mass will remain over the area, leading to another day of mostly cloudy skies and isolated thunderstorms across the area. While most places are likely to stay dry tomorrow, any storm that forms has the potential of producing heavy rain. Further to our west should be the rain from the same cold front that will bring the heavy rain to our area on Saturday.

Saturday's Heavy Rain Forecast

The heavy rain threat for Saturday mentioned in yesterday's update has now increased on the models, with the potential for a widespread 1 to 2 inch rain event. With the humid air mass in place, a cold front will slowly move through, and with a lot of moisture available, these storms will be able to produce very heavy rainfall, with flash flooding possible.

The rain is expected to fall throughout the day on Saturday, mainly during the second half of the day, with at least 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. Some places will see more, others will see less, though from what the latest models are showing, the best chance for more rain would be north and west of NYC. Stay tuned for more details on this potential.

Next Week: Warmth, Followed By More Rain

As the storm exits for Sunday, partly sunny skies return with less humidity, but the temperatures should start warming up again, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast. Monday should continue to warm up, with high temperatures back into the lower, possibly mid 90s away from the coast.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, however, the next storm should approach the area, bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures should stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The cold front exits by Thursday, however as we have seen with the past cold fronts, temperatures should not cool down, in fact temperatures should remain steady, if not warm up again, potentially reaching the lower 90s again for the end of next week.

July 7: Heat Relaxes For Now, Rain Returns

Record temperatures continued today, as temperatures reached the 100s in at least parts of the area for a 4th consecutive day. Humidity also increased, leading to the heat index reaching the mid to even upper 100s. Fortunately, the temperatures will slightly cool down, however the humidity will only continue to increase, with rain even returning.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will finally bring cooler temperatures to the area, however while it is definitely an improvement from the past few days, it is not going to feel much colder due to the higher humidity. With an onshore SE wind expected, high temperatures are not going to get as warm over the area, with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s for eastern Long Island and SE CT, mid to upper 80s for western Long Island and SW CT, and in the upper 80s to lower 90s for NYC and northern New Jersey. However, the dew points will reach the mid to upper 60s, leading to the heat index reaching the lower to mid 90s.

As mentioned above, the SE wind will also bring a rather humid air mass into the area. Cloud cover should increase, with partly cloudy skies expected for tomorrow, and a few isolated thunderstorms are also possible for places west of New York City. No severe weather is expected, however.

Warmth On Friday, Rain Returns For Saturday

Friday will continue with the warmth and humidity, and with temperatures slightly warming up combined with even higher humidity, Friday will not be very comfortable. With high temperatures reaching the lower 90s away from the coast, and dew points in the upper 60s, the heat index could reach the mid 90s. An isolated shower or storm is possible again, but the chances of that are low, as with tomorrow.

Saturday, however, brings the best chance for a widespread rain event since late June, which should be very helpful considering that the area has been very dry lately, and there is even the potential for heavy rainfall. A cold front is expected to move through, however the factors for severe weather are almost absent, with very little CAPE, LI and shear, therefore severe weather is not expected. However, the Precipitable Water values are very high, over 2 inches for parts of the area.

For Saturday's forecast, rain and thunderstorms are likely throughout the day, with humid conditions also expected, due to dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Not everyone in the area may see rain, also why I stayed with an 80% chance for storms, but most of the area is expected to see rain, with rainfall amounts generally between 1/4 and 1/2 inch, and there is a potential for heavy rainfall with the stronger storms, reaching up to 1 to 1.5 inch.

Next Week: 90+ Degrees Return, But So Does The Rain

Sunday should be drier for the area, with high temperatures returning into the upper 80s to lower 90s again, but with lower humidity. As warmer 850 mb temperatures return into the area, temperatures should warm up into the lower to mid 90s again for Monday and Tuesday next week.

By Wednesday, however, the next cold front should approach the area, once again bringing the chance of rain and thunderstorms. While the severe weather potential, if any, is uncertain, temperatures should cool down after this cold front. How much they cool down, however, is still uncertain, and considering that the trend this summer has been to weaken colder air masses on the models as they approach the shorter range, I would expect temperatures to remain steady, if not slightly cool down, into the upper 80s, possibly mid 80s.

Brief Tropics Update:

Invest 96L, mentioned in Sunday's update, has remained disorganized until today, however as it approaches southern Texas and northeastern Mexico, it has intensified to tropical storm force intensity, and if it does become more organized, it may be classified as a tropical depression or storm later tonight or early tomorrow. It is expected to make landfall in that area either tomorrow or Friday.

July 6: Year Of Extremes Continues

This year, we went from record snows in February, to record flooding in March, record warmest April, record cold temperatures for the middle of May while the month still ended up well above normal, and June which is likely to end up as the warmest June on record. This pattern has not given up yet, as we have experienced one of the hottest days on record for the area today.

Temperatures soared into the lower to mid 100s across most of the area, setting record high temperatures across most of the area. Central Park, La Guardia, and Teterboro airports reached 103 degrees today, while Newark airport reached 104 degrees. Central Park's temperature was the hottest since 2001, and in fact was only 3 degrees under the hottest temperature ever recorded, being 106 degrees on July 9, 1936.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Unfortunately, tomorrow should bring little or no relief from the heat. The only significant change should be the wind direction, coming out of the north. High temperatures should be in the upper 90s to lower 100s away from the coast, and with higher dew points, it will feel like the mid to possibly upper 100s.

Thursday Into Saturday: Some Storms, Not As Hot

Thursday should bring much needed cooler temperatures, but it will still be very warm, with temperatures dropping into the upper 80s to lower 90s. An isolated shower or storm is possible on Thursday, with increased activity possible by Friday.

By Saturday, a cold front moves through, bringing the highest chance of rain to the area since late June. Afterwards, however, there are differences in the models regarding how much the temperatures cool down. At this time, I am leaning towards the warmer scenario, where the temperature only slightly cools down, into the mid to upper 80s for early next week.

July 4: Heat Continues, Tropics Heating Up

Today's weather for the 4th of July was unseasonably hot, and with temperatures ending up slightly warmer than expected, parts of the area even reached the lower 100s today, including JFK and Newark airports, and today is not even the hottest day of this heat wave, as even hotter temperatures are on the way for tomorrow, Tuesday and Wednesday. Afterwards, however, relief may be on the way.

Meanwhile, the tropics are starting to heat up, with two invests that may become named storms and threaten the United States over the next 1-2 weeks, and another two disturbances that aren't expected to develop yet but are worth watching. One of these invests may potentially reach the Gulf of Mexico. More details on that have been posted below.

Tomorrow's Outlook

As hot as today was, tomorrow will be even hotter. With 850 mb temperatures similar to, if not slightly warmer than today, near 20c, high temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 90s inland, and in the upper 90s to lower 100s for the immediate NYC area. Long Island and S CT may also reach the mid to potentially upper 90s. As with today, humid conditons are not expected, however the dew points will be slightly higher, likely near the mid to upper 50s.

The rest of the region will also be hot, with parts of, if not most of the Washington DC to NYC corridor likely to reach the lower 100s. While not as hot as the DC-NYC corridor, the rest of the Northeast will also see very warm temperatures, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s across most of the Northeast, except for central/norther Maine which should be colder, in the lower to mid 80s.

Tuesday - Thursday: Heat Continues, Humidity Increases

Tuesday will be the hottest day of this heat wave. With 850 mb temperatures likely between 21c and 23c, high temperatures in the lower 100s should be more widespread, and while still uncertain, one run of the GFS today even showed temperatures reaching the mid 100s for parts of the DC-NYC corridor. Whether this verifies or not, Tuesday will be very hot. Combined with increasing humidity and dew points reaching the 60s, conditions will be quite uncomfortable, with the heat index reaching the lower to mid 100s.

By Wednesday, however, there are increasing differences, as the GFS and the ECM bring a back door cold front through. The 18z GFS was the most extreme in this, cooling temperatures back into the 80s, which at this time is an outlier solution. This is still uncertain, however, as today's earlier NAM runs do not show any back door cold front, and keep the heat through Wednesday and Thursday, though the latest NAM run does bring through the back door cold front. For now, I am leaning more towards the less extreme NAM but keeping an eye on the GFS/ECM, slightly cooling down Wednesday and Thursday's forecast temperatures (the latest forecast can be found in the 5-Day Forecast page), however this forecast is still subject to change.

Friday-Sunday: Rain Finally Returns

By late Friday or early Saturday, a cold front should affect the area, bringing the first chances of rain to the area since late June. The models differ with the timing and any severe weather potential, however if these solutions remain consistent, scattered showers and thunderstorms may be possible on Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will also cool down, likely returning into the 80s by Saturday. Stay tuned for more details on this rain potential.


Atlantic Hurricane Season: Tropics Heating Up


The second official month of the Atlantic hurricane season is here, and the activity is definitely picking up. On their latest update, the NHC show 4 areas of potential tropical development. At this time, I am only following 2 of these areas, as I do not expect the others to develop into tropical cyclones at this time.

West Carribean: The first disturbance, invest 96L, is currently in the western Caribbean, and is moving northwest. The models show this reaching the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, then moving towards the central Gulf of Mexico late this week before making landfall somewhere between northeastern Mexico and Louisiana. 96L is currently in a favorable area for development, and has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next 2-3 days.

If it does become a tropical storm, however, it should be closer to the oil spill than Alex was, and despite being weaker than Alex, it may affect the oil spill. More details on this potential will be posted over the next few days, and how it may affect the United States.

East Caribbean: The second disturbance, currently in the eastern Caribbean, currently moving WNW. This disturbance is in a favorable environment, and may become the next invest, which would be 97L, over the next few days.

July 3: Long Lasting Heat Wave Starts Today

With high temperatures reaching the lower 90s in a few parts of the area, today officially marks the first day of what will be the longest heat wave in the last few years, and what will bring the hottest temperatures since June 2008 or August 2006. While humidity will not be very high at first, the humidity is expected to increase through next week, leading to a potentially dangerous heat index.

Tomorrow's Outlook:


While tomorrow had a few isolated 90s, tomorrow will bring more widespread 90s. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 90s inland and in the mid 90s for the immediate NYC area. Further east, high temperatures will be in the lower 90s for western Long Island, upper 80s to lower 90s for S CT and central/eastern Long Island, and in the lower 80s for the immediate coast.


As with the past few days, precipitation is not expected tomorrow, with sunny skies expected. Relatively low humidity is expected yesterday, which should not lead to a high heat index, however this will change later next week.


Early-Mid Next Week: Hottest Days Of The Summer


What could be the hottest days of the summer are likely to be early to mid next week. With the models having trended even warmer today, high temperatures in the lower 100s are likely for parts of the area on Tuesday and Wednesday.


Looking at the latest models, the NAM, which was actually too conservative for today, even shows high temperatures on Tuesday reaching the lower 100s for NE NJ, with the DGEX (which continues the NAM between hours 84-192) bringing NYC's temperature to 100 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday. The GFS is still hot, with high temperatures reaching the upper 90s to lower 100s for NYC and NE NJ, however its 18z run is considered an outlier, as its highs on Wednesday and Thursday are in the upper 90s to lower 100s, but it temporarily drops the temperatures to the upper 80s around 2 PM with no rain around. The 00z and 12z ECM runs continue with the extreme heat, bringing temperatures that would be even hotter than the NAM and GFS.


Overall, summarizing the trends of the last few days, the latest models, and the expected pattern, this is going to be a long lasting heat wave, where we may see over a week of 90+ degrees. Monday's high temperatures should be in the upper 90s with a few lower 100s for the immediate NYC area, with Tuesday, Wednesday and possibly Thursday being the hottest days, with high temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s, possibly in the higher end of that range. Humidity should start out relatively low, but will increase through next week, leading to the highest heat index taking place on Wednesday or Thursday.

Late Next Week And Next Weekend: Some Storms, Slightly Colder

The first sign of relief from the excessive heat should be with a weak cold front that should approach the area on Friday, and while Friday is likely to be dry at this time, a few isolated thunderstorms may be possible, with high temperatures only slightly cooling down, into the mid 90s. By Saturday, the cold front, despite being weak, may have a greater impact on the area, bringing the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms, but with the warm air mass still around, high temperatures should still reach the lower 90s.

What happens afterwards becomes a question. A disturbance that is currently in the western Caribbean, which may become the second named storm of this year's Atlantic hurricane season, is shown to develop into a tropical depression or storm in the Gulf of Mexico next week on some models, while others do not develop it or bring it close to the US, which causes significant differences with the models for the pattern starting next weekend. Some models quickly bring in a colder air mass, while others keep the ridge around, with excessive heat lasting through the weekend.

At this time, I am leaning towards the slightly cooler solutions, but I still expect temperatures to remain above average through this time period. Stay tuned for more details on the longer range forecast, and what may happen with the tropical disturbance in the Caribbean.

July 2: Heat To Begin, Longer Range Update

Today was slightly warmer than yesterday, though comfortable conditions continued, with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Tomorrow will already start to warm up, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, with early next week being very hot. Looking into the longer range, there is the question of how much the temperatures cool down, and rain may make a return as early as late next week.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

As mentioned above, tomorrow will start to become warmer. Humid conditions are not expected, however temperatures will be warmer than today, in the mid 80s inland, in the mid to upper 80s for the immediate NYC area, and in the lower to mid 80s for Long Island and S CT.

Mostly sunny skies are expected tomorrow across the area, which should lead to a nice start for the 4th of July weekend. As with the past few days, no precipitation is expected both for the area and the region.

Latest Heat Wave Forecast:

The models continue to show Sunday warming up into the lower to mid 90s away from the coast. Afterwards, however, the models start to differ from each other, with the NAM showing what would be nothing out of the ordinary, bringing high temperatures only into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Considering that it has 850 mb temperatures colder than the rest of the models, I am currently considering its colder solution an outlier. The GFS also trended colder, but not as much, with high temperatures in the mid to occasionally upper 90s.

The 00z ECMWF, however, has been the most extreme model yet, bringing high temperatures into the mid 100s for parts of the area, which is most likely too warm. The 12z run did slightly cool down, however from what I have noticed, its 12z runs tend to be colder than its 00z runs, so I wouldn't be surprised if tonight's 00z ECM goes back to showing a very hot solution.

Overall, it is likely that the 850 mb temperatures end up in the range of 20c to 22c, leading to high temperatures between Monday and Wednesday in the upper 90s away from the coast, with a few lower 100s in the immediate NYC area. Humidity should not be too high, with dew points in the 60s, however this will still be enough to lead to the heat index reaching the lower to potentially mid 100s.

Thursday And Longer Range: What Happens Next?

By Thursday or Friday, a weakening cold front may approach the area. There is a lot of uncertainty with the models for this time period, however this cold front is not expected to be very strong, which may lead to scattered thunderstorms, but the temperatures will not cool down by much, only returning into the lower 90s with a few upper 80s. The 90s should persist into next weekend, when we may see temperatures cool down further. Stay tuned for more details for the longer range, and any thunderstorm possibilities.

July 1: Record Breaking Heat Starts July 4th

With the trough still in place, high temperatures were even colder than yesterday, in the lower to mid 70s inland, and in the mid to upper 70s for the rest of the area, along with partly sunny skies. Tonight will even be very chilly, with low temperatures in the upper 40s inland. Tomorrow should be the last of these days, however, as temperatures will quickly heat up starting on Saturday and Sunday.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

For those who like comfortable weather, enjoy tomorrow, as it will be the last of these days for a while. As the heat should not reach the area yet, high temperatures will start to warm up but not too much, in the mid to upper 70s inland, in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate NYC area, and in the upper 70s for Long Island and S CT. Mostly sunny skies are also expected tomorrow.

Due to the lack of precipitation over the next week, instead of showing the areas of rain across the region, which rain is not expected for the short term, I will post a map showing the forecast temperatures for this day. This map may be slightly off in some places, as it is only meant to show an overall view of the region's temperatures, without going into too much detail. The coolest temperatures will be found in the interior Northeast, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with the warmest temperatures in southern Virginia, where mid 80s are possible.

Major Heat Wave Develops

Saturday will already bring warming temperatures to the area, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s away from the coast. This, however, will only be the start of what will be a major heat wave, potentially record breaking. Temperatures during the peak of this heat wave will be as high, if not slightly hotter than those of the June 2008 heat wave, and it is very important to not take this heat wave lightly.

Sunday will start the heat wave, with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 90s away from the coast. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be the hottest days, with high temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s for the immediate NYC area. The heat index should reach the 100s during these days. With a WSW wind, Long Island and S CT should also reach the mid 90s, locally in the upper 90s for western Long Island, with the immediate coast in the lower to mid 80s.

Thursday should start to slightly cool down, with high temperatures expected to be in the mid 90s for the immediate NYC area at this time. Friday is expected to have high temperatures in the lower 90s, possibly returning into the upper 80s, however there is uncertainty for this time period, as it is possible that rain returns once again. Some models have been showing a wet scenario starting on Saturday and lasting for a few days, while others keep our area dry and hot. While it is uncertain which scenario happens at this time, a wet solution is something to keep an eye on, especially considering how dry it is expected to be this coming week.