June 27, 2013: Stormy Pattern Continues

Between June 28-July 5, this blog is going on vacation. No updates will be posted during this time period. The next full update will be posted on Saturday, July 6.

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Forecast Highlights:

Over the last few days, hot and humid conditions were observed across the region along with scattered thunderstorms; most of these storms so far stayed north, west and south of the area so far. Starting today, more widespread storms are expected across the region as a blocking pattern develops with a frontal system stalling over the East Coast for the next 7-10 days, with most, if not all days featuring a risk of showers and thunderstorms, possibly heavy.

June 25, 2013: Heat, Humidity, Storms Continue

Forecast Overview:

Today - Thursday: As the frontal system slowly makes its way towards the region, scattered afternoon/evening storms are expected across the region again on Wednesday and Thursday, focusing mostly north and west of NYC. Wednesday will be hot again with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s away from the coast and mid to upper 80s near the coast, although Thursday will slightly cool down with increased cloud cover, with highs reaching the mid 80s to near 90 degrees along with continued humid conditions.

Thursday Night - Beyond: A stronger low pressure will develop over the interior Northeast on Thursday night, tracking north into Canada as a frontal system stalls over the East Coast due to strong ridging in the western Atlantic. This setup will result in tropical moisture spreading up the coast, with this pattern likely continuing through the first week of July resulting in most of, if not all days containing a risk of scattered thunderstorms, potentially heavy. There is a higher risk of storms on Thursday night into Friday as the low pressure makes its closest approach before tracking into Canada, with scattered storms expected to continue into the weekend and next week. It will not rain in the entire area every day, as the storms are expected to remain generally scattered. By the time this pattern ends in early July, parts of the region especially north of NYC may receive several inches of rain.

June 24, 2013: Stormy Pattern Begins Today

Forecast Highlights:

As a hot and humid air mass spread into the region, temperatures peaked in the upper 80s to mid 90s away from the coast, which along with humid conditions resulted in heat index values reaching the mid to upper 90s. Scattered storms formed across parts of the region today, only the first day in what is likely to be a long stretch of stormy conditions as a frontal system stalls over the East Coast, resulting in a risk of storms for most days into the first week of July.

June 23, 2013: Heat Continues; Stormy Pattern Develops

Forecast Highlights:

A stretch of several days of hot and humid conditions begins today, with temperatures through Wednesday in the mid 80s to low 90s, humidity resulting in higher heat index values, and a risk of isolated storms during most afternoon/evenings, especially north/west of NYC. As a trough begins to set up over the central US, temperatures will cool down for the late week into next weekend as a wetter pattern likely develops.

June 22, 2013: Hot, Humid Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

Dry and seasonable conditions continue across the region today with highs reaching the low to mid 80s away from the coast. A warmer and more humid air mass will spread in from tomorrow through the middle of next week, however, resulting in temperatures reaching the upper 80s to low 90s along with a risk of isolated thunderstorms and heat index values near the mid 90s.

June 20, 2013: Seasonable Weekend, Then Hot, Humid

Forecast Highlights:

A high pressure remains in control through the late week and weekend, with temperatures slowly warming up and generally remaining near average along with mostly sunny skies. A warmer air mass will spread in by Sunday, with heat and humidity returning for the Sunday-Wednesday time frame along with a risk of isolated thunderstorms, increasing by mid-late next week.

June 19, 2013: Sunny, Mild Ending To Week

Note: The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is now posted in the Long Range Forecasts page.

Forecast Highlights:

A cold front moved through the region last night after having produced widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of them strong/severe, especially over northern NJ where 1-2 inches of rain fell and flash flooding was observed. A high pressure building into the region will provide mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures through Saturday, followed by a hot and humid air mass building into the region for next week along with a risk of scattered thunderstorms.

June 18, 2013 Storm Updates

Occasional updates will be posted below on the severe weather event affecting the region today and tonight. Live updates are being posted on Twitter and will continue to be posted throughout the day.

Twitter updates archive

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Final storm rain totals in NYC:

Central Park - 0.20"
JFK Airport - 0.20"
LaGuardia - 0.20"

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Blog Updates: (Regional radar from the National Weather Service)

5:15 PM: Heavy thunderstorms continue to train over west Bergen, SE Passaic, central Morris, south Sussex and north Warren counties in New Jersey along the I-80 corridor, having produced flash flooding with over 1-2" of rain observed in this axis. A flash flood warning issued by the NWS is in effect for this axis through 8:45 PM. This line of storms is slowly sinking south, approaching Hudson, Essex, Morris and Warren counties within the next 1-2 hours. This line is preventing heavy rain from developing to the south, where the I-78 corridor into New York City have seen little rain so far. Occasional rain/thunder will continue in this axis through the evening before ending, with at least 1/4 to locally 1/2 inch of rain expected except for under the aforementioned axis of heavy rain, where up to an additional inch, possibly locally higher, of rain is expected with a continued risk of flash flooding through the evening commute.

Further northeast, a line of heavy thunderstorms is developing over southern CT just north of New Haven. This line is capable of producing heavy rain, gusty winds and flash flooding with up to 1" of rain possible, with the line expected to slowly drop south towards coastal CT.

4:10 PM: Over the last hour, scattered strong storms continued over NE NJ and SE NY, with the most significant storm over eastern Bergen county earlier this afternoon, having produced localized 1-2" rain totals with flash flooding, hail, and gusty winds. Similar conditions were observed in NW Passaic county and central Orange county.

Currently, scattered heavy storms continue over parts of western Bergen, NW Passaic, and central Rockland counties. Meanwhile, the severe thunderstorms over central NJ earlier this afternoon have moved offshore, and widespread moderate to heavy rain with occasional rumbles of thunder is filling in to the north, over northern NJ and NYC. This part of the storm was not modeled well, as some of the shorter range models failed to depict the central NJ storms earlier this afternoon, and the steady Mid Atlantic rainfall was modeled to stay south of the area. The rain and thunder will spread into NYC and Long Island slowly within the next 1-2 hours, with scattered strong storms slowly dropping southeast into southern CT. Occasional periods of rain and thunder are expected to continue through the evening hours, then gradually ending, with at least another 1/4 inch, locally up to/over 1/2 inch, of additional rain expected.

2:25 PM: Scattered storms are currently popping up across parts of the area; today's storms will be very slow moving, with areas of flash flooding likely under the heavier cells. Currently there is a strong cell located in Demarest, NJ drifting NE, producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds and hail; this cell has produced up to 1" of rain so far in NE NJ. Another similar cell is located just south of Warwick, NY and is also slowly drifting to the NE. Additional thunderstorms will continue to develop and expand into the area in the next few hours, and will also be capable of heavy rain and localized flooding.

June 18, 2013: Storms Today, Seasonable Ending To Week

Forecast Highlights:

A cold front that produced isolated thunderstorms yesterday continues to track closer to the area, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon. Behind the cold front, mostly sunny skies will return for the second half of the week with temperatures slightly below average, mostly in the mid 70s-low 80s. A gradual warming trend will continue through early next week, when a heat surge is possible.

June 17, 2013 Brief Update

Forecast Overview:

Today - Tuesday: Warm temperatures will continue today and tomorrow, with partly sunny skies and highs peaking in the low to mid 80s across the area. Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening and again tomorrow, but with most of the storm activity staying south of the area.

Weds - Next Weekend: The system will clear the region by Wednesday, with more sunshine and dry conditions for Wednesday through next weekend. Temperatures will initially start cooler, in the mid to upper 70s on Wednesday, slowly warming up into the low to mid 80s by next weekend. As the next system approaches the central US, showers and storms are likely to return into the region towards early next week; more information will be posted on the longer range outlook with the next full forecast discussion tomorrow.

June 16, 2013: Scattered Storms Through Tuesday

Note: Due to a busy schedule, the blog will only be updated through brief forecast updates today and tomorrow. The next full update will be posted on Tuesday, 6/18/13, with an updated 5-day forecast, storm summaries for previous storms, and storm updates if necessary.


Forecast Overview:

Today - Tuesday: As a low pressure approaches the region, clouds spread into the region with unsettled weather likely to persist through Tuesday. Most models show the heaviest rain staying south of the area, although scattered showers and storms are still expected for the area this evening and again tomorrow and Tuesday. Temperatures are generally expected to peak in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Late Week: A high pressure will spread into the region again behind the storms, with mostly sunny conditions from Weds through next weekend. Temperatures will start out below average, in the mid to upper 70s, gradually rising into the low to mid 80s by next weekend with a risk of rain returning by early next week.

June 15, 2013: Rain, Storms Return Sun-Tues

Forecast Highlights:

A high pressure briefly returns into the region, providing the area with mostly sunny skies and relatively mild temperatures for today and the first half of Sunday, peaking in the mid 70s to low 80s. The dry conditions will be short lasting, however, as scattered storms return into the forecast for late Sunday through Tuesday, followed by drier conditions again for the mid-late week and continued near average temperatures.

June 14, 2013: Dry Weekend, Then Stormy Again

Forecast Highlights:

Rain continued to fall through mid-late last night, with eastern LI and CT continuing to see light rain through this morning. Rain totals were generally between 1 and 1.5 inch, locally as high as 2 inches, although there were some locations with under 1 inch totals as well, especially in parts of Long Island. Scattered showers are expected again today with chilly temperatures, followed by a warmer and sunny weekend but with storms returning once again for next week.

June 13, 2013 Storm Summary

June 13, 2013 Storm Summary

An unusually strong non-tropical low pressure for June affected the Northeast on June 13-14, 2013, following tropical storm Andrea and another low pressure earlier in the same week that brought Central Park to near record June rainfall. While impacts from this storm were less significant than originally expected, it managed to produce another 1-3 inches of rain in the Northeast and a widespread severe weather outbreak in the Mid Atlantic region.

June 13, 2013 Storm Updates

Occasional updates will be posted below on the heavy rain, wind and severe thunderstorm event affecting the region today and tonight. Updates will also be posted on Twitter.

Links:
Yesterday's forecast discussion
Twitter updates
5-Day Forecast

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Final storm rain totals in NYC: (Updated 8 AM)

Central Park - 1.58"
JFK Airport - 1.14"
LaGuardia - 1.13"

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Blog Updates: (Regional radar from the National Weather Service)

*The 2 latest updates are displayed on the main page. Click here to view the entire set of storm updates from today.*

12:15 AM Storm Update

As of 12 AM, the low pressure is located off the New Jersey coast, approximately east of Philadelphia and south of western LI. The minimum pressure is near 996-997 mb and the low is tracking to the east.

Light to moderate rain continued to fall over the last 2 hours, locally heavy in LI and southern CT, with rain totals so far generally between 3/4 and 1.25 inch, locally higher in some spots. Light to moderate rain will continue to fall through the mid overnight hours as temperatures fall into the 50s with a breezy NE wind later turning to the north, with the rain mostly ending by Friday morning except for Long Island and southern CT, which will see showers persisting a bit longer. Friday will otherwise be mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s along with a risk of scattered showers from NYC and further north/west in the afternoon and evening hours.

So far, Central Park is at 1.15" for the storm, with the final storm total likely approaching 1.5 inch. This will place this month at least as the 3rd wettest June on record; currently, 1903 is the 3rd wettest June on record with 9.78", followed by 2009 with 10.06" and 2003 with 10.27". Additional rain is expected next week, and this month is still on track to become the wettest June on record in NYC and perhaps one of the 10 wettest months on record.

This is the final storm update for tonight. A forecast update will be posted on Friday morning, followed by a post-storm analysis on Friday night or Saturday morning.


10:15 PM Storm Update

The complicated forecasting of this storm continues, as after dry conditions for the majority of the day, with much less rain than expected falling through the late afternoon hours, the current round of rain is overperforming for parts of the region compared to the earlier expectations for tonight, with heavy rain and thunder having affected NYC earlier before shifting into Long Island and CT, where widespread moderate to heavy rain is currently falling; these storms have produced 1/2 to 3/4 inch for some locations in just an hour. As such, the storm total rain forecast for the area was slightly increased again to 1-2 inches, locally higher, as was forecast from earlier this morning. Steady rain will continue to fall through the early-mid overnight hours with temperatures gradually falling into the 50s, with the rain gradually tapering off from west to east with Long Island expected to see showers through Friday morning.

Storm updates will continue to be posted through 12 AM; the forecast discussion originally planned for tonight will be posted on Friday morning instead. A post-storm overview will be posted on Friday night or Saturday morning, analyzing the forecasting of this storm and what went wrong with the forecast.

June 12, 2013: Heavy Rain, Flooding Tomorrow

Forecast Highlights:

Mostly to partly sunny skies were observed across the area today with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. A developing low pressure in the central US currently producing a significant severe weather outbreak in the Great Lakes region will continue to intensify and track into the region on Thursday, becoming an unusually strong non-tropical low pressure for this time of the year while producing unseasonably cold temperatures, heavy rain with over 2-3 inches likely, and windy conditions with gusts up to 40-45 mph possible. With another rain event next week, this month is likely to become the wettest June on record in NYC.

June 12, 2013 Morning Update

Thursday Forecast Update

Link to last night's forecast discussion

Yesterday's update mentioned uncertainty with the exact axis of heavy rainfall with model differences, as the ECM, CMC and UKMET were on the southern end with temperatures in the 50s-low 60s with 2-4 inches of rain, and the GFS and NAM were further north with 1-3 inches of rain and slightly warmer temperatures. As of this morning, the GFS and NAM shifted south, and were aligned closer to the ECM scenario of chilly temperatures, wind gusts up to 40-50 mph, and 2-4 inches of rain, locally up to 5 inches.

At this time, other than slightly increasing rain totals for the southern half of the area and increasing wind speeds, little changes were made to the 5-day forecast, with the outlook for 2-4 inches across the area resulting in flash flooding, wind gusts up to 35-50 mph, and temperatures peaking in the low to mid 60s before falling into the 50s by the evening and overnight hours. For more localized forecasts, please refer to the 5-day forecast page.

A new scenario is showing up with some of the latest models, however; the latest GFS and UKMET runs, which just came within the last hour, show a different outcome less than 24 hours before the storm starts, now showing a much weaker low pressure around 1000mb tracking into southern Pennsylvania, then southeast into Delaware and SE Maryland before weakening and quickly exiting offshore. In that scenario, rainfall amounts would be much lower, only around 3/4 to 1.5 inch, locally higher, winds would be weaker, the Mid Atlantic severe weather risk would be lower and further south, and the rain would end much earlier than expected, around Thursday evening as opposed to Friday morning. As this is only a scenario shown very recently and does not have model support at this time, it was not taken into consideration for this morning's updated forecast, although I will continue to monitor the latest model runs through the day and should the rest of the afternoon model guidance trend in this direction, changes may be made to the forecast. Stay tuned for more information on tomorrow's outlook with a forecast discussion this evening.

June 11, 2013: Heavy Rain, Storms Likely On Thursday

Forecast Highlights:

The wet pattern continued again today with scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the area this afternoon, along with much warmer temperatures compared to yesterday, peaking in the mid 70s to low 80s across the area. Similar temperatures but with more sunshine are expected tomorrow, but the dry conditions will be short lived as a strong storm moves through on Thursday with significant impacts including heavy rain over 2 inches, wind and severe weather.

June 11, 2013 Morning Update

Thursday Forecast Update

Link to last night's forecast discussion

Last night's update mentioned uncertainty and significant model differences regarding the Thursday storm potential, with scenarios ranging from heat and severe weather, to a chilly heavy rain, to dry conditions with rain staying to the south. This morning's model guidance narrows the range of uncertainty and remains mostly consistent on the overall idea of a strong low pressure moving through on Thursday afternoon and night, producing a chilly heavy rain over 1-3 inches over the area and a significant severe weather outbreak to the south.

Last night's preliminary forecast for Thursday into the overnight hours was for 80% of moderate to heavy rain with 1-2 inches possible; confidence further increases in this scenario with this morning's model guidance, although there still remains some uncertainty regarding the storm track and how much rain falls in the area. At this time, I lowered high temperatures into the 60s across the area due to the heavy rain and increased probability of rain to 90%, although the forecast is still subject to some revisions. More information can be found in yesterday's forecast discussion, and the 5-day forecast updated this morning. Stay tuned for more information on the Thursday storm with this evening's update.

Record June rainfall? This storm will continue to be closely monitored for heavy rain, especially following the two significant rain events in the last few days. Central Park has had 7.99" of rain so far this month, making it the 6th wettest June on record. The wettest June on record was 2003 with 10.27" of rain, followed by 2009 with 10.06". Considering that this storm has the potential to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain, bringing the monthly rain total to nearly 10" by June 15, with another half month left for additional rain events, the potential is there for this month to be the wettest June on record, and possibly even one of the all-time wettest months on record.

June 10, 2013: More Rain Tonight, Thursday

Forecast Highlights:

Another rain event affected the region today with moderate to heavy rainfall, adding more onto what is already a wetter than average June due to the remnants of tropical storm Andrea a few days ago. More rain will continue to fall tonight with scattered thunderstorms possible on Tuesday; a strong low pressure is likely on Thursday which has the potential to produce yet another round of heavy rain, followed by drier conditions returning for the weekend.

June 10, 2013 Storm Updates

Occasional blog updates will be posted below on the moderate to heavy rain event affecting the region today and tonight. The next full blog update will be posted this evening.

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Final storm rain totals in NYC: (Updated at 8 AM)

Central Park - 1.46"
LaGuardia - 1.37"
JFK Airport - 1.40"

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Blog Updates: (Regional radar from the National Weather Service)


8:40 PM Storm Update

Widespread light to moderate rain continues to affect the region, and as of 8 PM, rain totals so far based on radar estimates and surface observations are about 1/2 inch in NW NJ and southern CT, 3/4 to 1 inch in northeast NJ, SE NY and NYC, and 1 to 2 inches in Long Island, where the highest storm totals are currently in the area with Shirley, NY up to 1.87 inch so far.

The warm front is currently located over southern PA and southern NJ, and is slowly advancing to the northeast. For the next 2 hours, the back end of the steady rain will move from SW to NE through the area, clearing northern NJ first and southern CT last, with lighter rain showers persisting afterwards. A line of heavy thunderstorms is located over eastern Pennsylvania into Washington DC and Virginia and is tracking to the northeast; little, if any thunder is expected as this reaches a more stable air mass over the area, although moderate to locally heavy rain and possible rumbles of thunder are expected to return after 10-11 PM, continuing through at least 12-2 AM before becoming light for the rest of the overnight hours.

Final storm rain totals based on current totals and projected additional totals with the incoming line of rain are likely to end up between 1 and 2 inches from NYC and further north/west into southern CT, locally up to 2.5 inches especially in Long Island. This is the last storm update for tonight; a detailed forecast discussion will be posted within the next few hours, focusing on a strong low pressure that may produce widespread heavy rain and severe weather on Thursday.


4:45 PM Storm Update

Since the last update, rain redeveloped over most of the area, with areas of light to moderate rain currently covering the entire area except for SE Connecticut. Rain totals so far range from under 1/4 inch inland, to 0.30" to 0.75" in NYC and south of I-80 in New Jersey. Occasional showers will continue through the rest of the day into the evening hours, with severe weather currently in the Mid Atlantic remaining south of the area. Forecast rain totals are still 3/4 to 1.5 inch, locally higher in some areas especially south of NYC.



1:20 PM Storm Update

During the last few hours, a band of heavy rain affected NYC, New Jersey south of I-80, and western Long Island with heavy rain, with 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain observed so far. Further inland in northern NJ, SE NY, and southern CT, little rain fell so far.

Behind the current round of rain, a temporary break is expected, with occasional light to moderate rain expected to resume after 2-3 PM. These occasional showers will continue through this evening and early tonight, with lighter rain later in the overnight hours. At least 3/4 to 1.5 inch of rain is expected for most of the area with locally higher totals possible.


9:00 AM: Rain Approaching

As of 9 AM, widespread rain is spreading into the region ahead of a slow moving frontal boundary, currently over Maryland. Light to moderate rain currently covers Pennsylvania, New Jersey and southern NY state, with a band of heavy rain over central NJ moving northeast towards the area. This band will affect most of the area with heavy rain between 9:30 and 11 AM, with periods of light to moderate rain then expected to continue through the rest of the day into the early overnight hours, with heavy rain possible again this evening and early tonight. Rain totals are overall expected to end up between 3/4 and 1.5 inch, locally as high as 2 to 2.5 inches. Following the significant rain event with Andrea's remnants 3 days ago, flooding is possible with today's rainfall.

Today's updates will be posted every few hours; the next update will likely be posted after 2 PM. The next forecast update will be posted tonight, with more information on another possible rain event on Thursday and the weekend outlook.

June 9, 2013: Rain, Cooler Temps Tomorrow

Forecast Highlights:

With a high pressure over the region, mostly sunny skies were observed with warmer temperatures, peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s for most of the area. The dry conditions will quickly come to an end, however, as a warm front approaches the area tomorrow and moves through overnight, producing widespread rain, locally heavy. Temperatures will otherwise remain near to slightly below average with additional rain chances for the rest of the week.

June 8, 2013: Stormy Start To Week Ahead

Forecast Highlights:

The remnants of Tropical Storm Andrea continued to affect the area until early this morning, with mostly cloudy skies and highs peaking in the mid to upper 70s across the area. More sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures are expected for Sunday, but the dry conditions won't last for long as rain and thunderstorms return again for Monday and Tuesday, with showers possibly lasting through Thursday.

June 6-8, 2013 Storm Summary

Tropical Storm Andrea Summary

On June 5, Tropical Storm Andrea, the first named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, formed in the Gulf of Mexico. Andrea made landfall in Florida on June 7 as a strong tropical storm, and continued up the East Coast while transitioning into a post-tropical storm. Combined with another low pressure that produced rain on June 6 through early June 7, the system produced widespread heavy rain and flooding along the East Coast with widespread 3-5 inch totals across the region.

June 7-8, 2013 Storm Updates

Occasional updates will be posted below on the heavy rain event from the remnants of Tropical Storm Andrea through today and tonight. Updates will also be posted on Twitter.

Links:
Yesterday's forecast discussion
Twitter updates
5-Day Forecast

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Final storm rain totals in NYC: (Updated 8 AM)

Central Park - 4.77"
JFK Airport - 4.42"
LaGuardia - 4.22"
Highest area total - Central Park, NY and New London, CT - 4.77"

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Blog Updates: (Regional radar from the National Weather Service)


12:15 AM Storm Update

As of 12 AM, post-tropical storm Andrea was located just SE of southern New Jersey. Intensity has not changed much since the last update, and the low continues to quickly move to the northeast.

Rain totals so far since the storm started on Thursday afternoon range from 1.5 to 3 inches in northern NJ and SE NY, and 3 to 4 inches in NYC, Long Island and southern CT. The highest total so far is in Bridgeport, CT with 4.39 inches; Central Park is currently at 4.02".

Over the last hour, the heaviest rain moved out of most of the area except for eastern Long Island and southern CT, which are still under moderate to heavy rain at this time but will also see rainfall rates lightening up over the next hour. Light to moderate showers will continue until 2-4 AM, when the low pressure moves through the area with possible enhancements to the rainfall rate.

This is the last storm update for tonight. The next forecast discussion will be posted on Saturday evening, covering the additional showers and thunderstorms expected for Monday and Tuesday and the lack of heat showing up in the longer range pattern.


11:20 PM Storm Update

As of 11 PM, according to the NHC, post-tropical storm Andrea was located over SE Delaware. Sustained winds are near 45 mph with a minimum pressure of 997 mb, and the storm is moving to the NE at 35 mph.

According to the latest radar posted to the left, rain is lightening up over NYC, northern NJ and SE NY; more showers are in the process of developing over New Jersey, and light to moderate rain, locally heavy, will continue until 2-4 AM, with another 1/4 to 1/2 inch, locally higher, expected until then. Meanwhile, heavy rain and thunder continue in Long Island and southern CT with a band of heavy storms training over Suffolk county, producing rainfall rates up to 1-2"/hour. Rain will also begin to lighten up in Long Island within the next hour and southern CT in 1-2 hours, with light to moderate rain, locally heavy, continuing until 4 AM.


10:10 PM: Rain To Start Ending Soon

As of 10 PM, post-tropical storm Andrea was located over SE Maryland. Intensity has not changed much since the last update, and the low continues to quickly move to the northeast.

Heavy rain continued to fall across the area over the last hour, with flooding reported in parts of the area, especially in Long Island and southern CT where the heaviest rain rates of the storm were observed this evening. Isolated totals near to locally over 4 inches have been reported in Long Island so far, with totals otherwise generally between 2 and 3.5 inches.

The latest radar to the left shows rain still covering the area, with some reports of thunder in NE NJ, NYC and Long Island. The heaviest rain is expected to end after 11 PM in northern NJ and NYC, continuing for another 1-2 hours in Long Island, SE NY and southern CT; lighter rain will fall afterwards, although rain is likely to intensify again after at least 12-2 AM as the low pressure and the surrounding rain bands, currently in Maryland, reach the area. Most of the rain will end by 2-4 AM, with dry conditions returning for Saturday with much warmer temperatures, back into the mid 70s to low 80s, a significant change from today's unseasonably cold high temperatures in the low 60s due to the rain.


9:10 PM: More Rain Tonight

As of 8 PM, the low pressure associated with post-tropical storm Andrea was located over SE Virginia. Sustained winds are near 45 mph with a minimum pressure of 996 mb, and the low is quickly moving to the northeast at 35 mph.

As of 9 PM, rain totals across the area range from 1.5 to 2 inches in NW NJ and SE NY, 2 to 3 inches in NYC and northern NJ, and 2.75 to 3.5 inches in Long Island and southern CT. The highest total in the area so far is Bridgeport, CT with 3.67", followed by Shirley, NY with 3.52".

The initial round of heavy rain over Long Island and CT has moved out, although additional heavy rain is developing and expanding over NYC, northern NJ and SE NY, with rates up to 1/2 inch per hour. Meanwhile, another band of heavy rain is located over the Long Island Sound, and will spread into southern CT within the next 1/2 hour. Moderate to heavy rain will continue over the area until at least 11 PM, with temporarily lighter rain afterwards until the low pressure moves through the area around 12-4 AM, when another round of rain, possibly heavy, is expected. Afterwards, conditions will become drier as the low pressure quickly moves out of the region. From now until the end of the storm, another 3/4 to 1.5 inch of rain is expected, locally higher.


6:00 PM: Rain, Flooding Continue

**Storm updates were paused earlier today due to technical difficulties. As these issues have been fixed, storm updates will now be resumed through tonight.**

As of 5 PM, Andrea is now a post-tropical cyclone, meaning it has lost its tropical characteristics. The low pressure is located near NE North Carolina with sustained winds of 45 mph, minimum pressure of 996 mb, and is moving northeast at 28 mph.

Over the last few hours, moderate to heavy rain fell across the area, with radar estimates and surface based observations showing rain totals so far generally between 1 and 2 inches across most of the area. The heaviest rain is currently located over Long Island and southern CT, with rain temporarily lighter over NYC and northern NJ. In Long Island and CT, heavy rain will continue for the next few hours, potentially becoming lighter over Long Island within an hour or two. In NYC, northern NJ and SE NY, additional periods of moderate to heavy rain will continue through the late evening as thunderstorms currently over Delaware make their way NNE into the area. Rain will continue until the center of the low pressure reaches the area around 12-4 am, with rain then expected to gradually become lighter until ending in the mid overnight hours.

9:30 AM: Heavy Rain Approaching

As of 8 AM, Tropical Storm Andrea was located over South Carolina. Andrea has sustained winds of 45 mph, minimum pressure of 996 mb, and is moving northeast at 28 mph. Andrea is expected to lose tropical characteristics late this morning into the early afternoon, with its remnants continuing to track up the East Coast just offshore. Rain initially spread into the area last night, starting west of NYC during the late afternoon hours and east of NYC later overnight. Latest radar estimates show rain totals so far generally under 1/4 inch in Long Island and southern CT, 1/4 to 1/2 inch in SE NY, and 1/2 to 1 inch in NYC and northern NJ.

Forecast Update: As the latest radar above shows, a band of moderate rain is currently focused over NYC, northern NJ, SE NY and Connecticut, with steady light to moderate rain to continue through at least 12-2 PM. After that point, heavy rain currently located south of Pennsylvania will reach the area, producing moderate to heavy rain for the rest of the afternoon and evening, including Long Island as well which so far has not seen much rain. Between 8 PM and 2-4 AM, Andrea's remnant low pressure will reach the area; there is the possibility of a brief break in the rain around the late evening hours, although additional heavy rain is expected to continue through at least 2-4 AM, gradually ending from south to north. Rain totals are generally expected to end up between 2 and 3 inches across the area, locally as high as 4 inches. Wind will mostly remain light, out of the east at 5-15 mph.

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Twitter Updates:

June 6, 2013: Andrea's Remnants To Produce Heavy Rain

Forecast Highlights:

The first tropical storm of the year, Andrea, formed in the Gulf of Mexico yesterday, and has since strengthened into a strong tropical storm. Andrea will make landfall in Florida later today, gradually losing tropical characteristics as it tracks up the East Coast, with its remnants producing widespread heavy rain between 1.5 and 3 inches, locally up to 4 inches, on Friday and Friday night. A drier and warmer weekend is expected behind Andrea, with rain to return on Monday again.

**Updated at 4:45 PM with a rain map**

June 5, 2013: Rainy Friday From T.S. Andrea

Forecast Highlights:

A high pressure in place provided the region with another mostly sunny day, with high temperatures peaking in the low to mid 70s across most of the area. Similar temperatures will continue into Tuesday, but with rain returning for Friday and Friday night as Tropical Storm Andrea tracks up the East Coast and becomes an extratropical cyclone. Following the storm's departure, a drier but cooler than average weekend is expected, with rain returning for the beginning of next week as well.

June 4, 2013: Rain Expected Friday-Saturday

Forecast Highlights:

A high pressure in place brought mostly sunny skies to the area today with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s. Similar conditions are expected again on Wednesday, with 70s again on Thursday but with increasing  cloud cover ahead of a low pressure with tropical origins tracking up the coast, expected to produce widespread rain across the region on Friday into the first part of Saturday with a drier ending to the weekend.

June 3, 2013: Seasonable Week, Then Rain Returns

Forecast Highlights:

A slow moving cold front moved off the coast today after producing several rounds of thunderstorms, including localized heavy storms in NYC last night, heavy rain this morning, and additional scattered storms in the afternoon. Behind this front, temperatures slightly cooler than average will return along with mostly sunny skies will return for Tuesday and Wednesday, with increasing clouds on Thursday ahead of a potential tropical storm expected to move up the coast, producing widespread rain for Friday and Saturday.

June 3, 2013 Morning Update

8:45 AM: Rain Continues Until Early Afternoon

Last night, mainly cloudy skies continued across the area with scattered thunderstorms affecting the immediate NYC area around midnight, producing heavy rain locally up to 1-2 inches generally limited to NE NJ and northern parts of NYC. Additional widespread showers developed afterwards over the region, with the latest radar showing areas of rain over New Jersey and New England. These showers are generally expected to continue until 10 AM inland, 12 PM-2 PM in the immediate NYC area, and 2-4 PM east of NYC, with an additional 1/4 to locally 1/2 inch of rain expected. Highs are expected to peak in the mid to upper 70s across the area.

June 2, 2013: Cooler Temperatures This Week

Forecast Highlights:

A cold front currently moving through the region will bring an end to the heat wave, with areas of showers and some thunderstorms expected late tonight into Monday morning. Highs will return into the 70s throughout the week, with sunshine returning for Monday afternoon through Thursday before a more humid air mass spreads in from the south, with showers returning again for Friday and parts of the weekend.

June 1, 2013: Storms Return Sunday Night, Monday

Forecast Highlights:

A heat wave continued across the region, with temperatures again in the upper 80s to low 90s across most of the area. A strong cold front will affect the region on Sunday into Monday, bringing an end to the heat wave while producing strong thunderstorms on Sunday evening and night, mostly north and west of NYC. Once rain clears the area on Monday, several days of sunshine and generally seasonable temperatures are expected before rain and humidity return by the end of the week.