Jan 8, 2013: Warmer Temps Last Into Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

Mild temperatures continued across the region today; following cold overnight lows for some with 10s for interior locations, temperatures quickly warmed up, peaking in the low to mid 40s inland and upper 40s to near 50 for the rest of the area. Warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow before cooling down slightly for the late week with rain on Friday; even warmer temperatures, however, are expected for the weekend, as much as 15-25 degrees warmer than average.

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Tonight - Weekend: Much Warmer Than Average

After the mild temperatures observed today, interior locations are quickly cooling down; while New York City is still in the 40s, interior areas away from the immediate suburbs of NYC are already in the upper 20s to low 30s, and are expected to drop into the upper 10s to mid 20s tonight. The warmest day of the week is expected on Wednesday; the latest model guidance shows temperatures about the same as those of today, although the last few days have been several degrees warmer than modeled, and the same will likely happen tomorrow, with highs peaking in the upper 40s inland and low 50s for the rest of the area, reaching the mid 50s in the immediate NYC area. Compared to average high temperatures in the 30s, Wednesday will be about 10-15 degrees warmer than average across the area. Mostly sunny skies are expected with light SW winds.

A weak cold front will move through overnight but with temperatures failing to cool down by much, with mostly sunny skies on Thursday and highs in the low to mid 40s inland and mid to upper 40s for the rest of the area. Cloud cover will increase overnight as a weak low pressure approaches, with occasional showers throughout the day on Friday and early overnight amounting to at least 1/4 inch. Highs will be in the upper 30s to low 40s inland and the low to mid 40s for the rest of the area; the possibility is there for some freezing rain at the start of the storm in NW NJ, interior SE NY and southern CT, although no significant icing is expected.

With the low pressure moving out by Saturday, a mainly cloudy weekend is expected as the area remains near the edge of the warm sector as a cold front approaches by Sunday, stalling over the region. With a strong ridge over the region, even warmer temperatures are expected, reaching the low to upper 50s across the area on both days, perhaps peaking near 60 degrees in the immediate NYC area. Unseasonably mild overnight lows are expected on Saturday and Sunday nights, generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s, which is even warmer than the average daytime highs. Even if daytime highs are slightly cooler than expected, this should still ensure the majority of the eastern US ending up with temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above average.


Next Week: More Rain, Gradually Cooling Down

Following a weak low pressure moving through the Midwest on Saturday, a cold front will slowly make its way towards the region, but with strong ridging persisting near the eastern US, will significantly slow down and will struggle moving through the area before mid next week; this will keep the majority of the region in the warm sector and thus resulting in rain instead of snow. Several waves of low pressure are expected to form along the frontal boundary, with occasional periods of rain between Sunday and Wednesday. Temperatures will remain significantly warmer than average until this boundary shifts east of the area around Wednesday, with highs likely in the 50s in the early-mid week. The continued warmth should secure January ending up as yet another warmer than average month.

Once the front moves offshore, temperatures will slightly cool down but with a significant cold air mass failing to move in, with the trough axis still over the western-central US and ridging in the East persisting but starting to weaken. As the next pattern outlook late this week will discuss in more details, however, the pattern will gradually turn colder around the 15-20th, with a storm potential around the 17-19th. A colder pattern is likely for the last 10 days of January, although temperatures are not expected to be significantly colder than average, and the coldest temperature departures from average may not be focused over the region as much as it could be further north and west.