Jan 24, 2013: Snow Tomorrow, Warmer Next Week

Forecast Highlights

Very cold temperatures continued for another day, with temperatures this morning dropping into the single digits across most of the area and the low 10s closer to NYC and the coast; a low of 1 degree was observed in Montgomery, NY with lows similarly approaching zero in other parts of NW NJ, interior SE NY, southern CT away from the coast, and in eastern parts of Long Island. Highs were slightly warmer than yesterday but remained very cold, only peaking in the low to mid 20s across the area.

The cold will moderate over the next few days with a fast moving storm producing light snow on Friday evening across the area, generally up to 1 to locally 2 inches. Moderately cold temperatures will continue through the weekend, before a warmer pattern returns for next week with high temperatures back into the 40s along with widespread rain, perhaps starting out with snow/freezing rain.

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Tonight - Weekend: Cold Continues, Some Snow Friday Night

Very cold temperatures are expected again tonight, dropping into the single digits to low 10s for most of the area, while windy conditions continue as a storm that produced snow last night in the Mid Atlantic continues to race offshore, exploding from a relatively weak 990mb low pressure into an extremely intense 928mb low pressure in the open Atlantic Ocean, away from the US, within just 24 hours. Meanwhile, a weak low pressure will approach the region on Friday, producing light snow across the region. The low pressure will initially track towards the Great Lakes; a second low pressure will develop near the Mid Atlantic coast, but will remain weak and moisture starved, and with a lack of amplification will remain flat and quickly race offshore. This will produce light snow from Friday mid-late afternoon through the evening hours with most of the area expected to see 1/2 to 1 inch. Amounts may be locally higher up to 2 inches towards Long Island.

The cold air mass, while moderated, will continue through the weekend with highs generally in the low to mid 20s inland and the mid to upper 20s for the rest of the area and lows in the 10s for most and single digits inland. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected for both Saturday and Sunday.


Next Week: Warming Up, Late Week Rain

With the trough moving out of the region, a warmer air mass will return next week, but this will be a temporary warm up ahead of an expected return to below average temperatures in early February, as will be discussed with the next pattern outlook to be posted on Friday or Saturday. With a weak low pressure near the Midwest, widespread precipitation will spread into the region for Monday and Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers, as a SW flow develops and highs return into the upper 30s and 40s. Frozen precipitation may be associated with the front end of the precipitation on Monday or Monday night, especially north and west of NYC, where potential exists for light freezing rain and some snow. By Tuesday, temperatures are expected to warm up enough for the entire area to change over to plain rain.

A cold front will move through the region on Wednesday, with widespread rain expected across the area and the region. Behind this cold front, temperatures will cool down again as a strong cold air mass surges southeastward from Alaska into the northern US, although the core of this colder air mass will be focused further west than the current cold, and at least in the Northeast US will not be as cold as this week is. Uncertainty increases towards late next week, when some models show the potential for another colder storm near the region before more cold moves in, while others show no storm, simply bringing the cold air mass into the region. More information will be posted on this time frame as details become clearer.