Jan 3, 2013: Rain Returns Late Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

The dry pattern in place will continue through early next week, with no precipitation other than light snow early on Sunday. Following the current cold temperatures, a warming trend is expected by the weekend, with highs returning into the 40s and possibly the 50s next week. Stormier conditions will return into the eastern half of the US starting mid-late next week with a storm producing rain and wind across the region.

---

Tonight - Weekend: Mostly Dry; Light Snow Possible Sunday

The cold pattern continued over the region today with temperatures colder than average across the area; morning temperatures were colder than expected outside of the immediate NYC area, getting as low as 8 degrees in Sussex, NJ and 2 degrees in Montgomery, NY. Mostly sunny skies will continue through Saturday with temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s on Friday and the low to upper 30s on Saturday.

While no organized storm is expected this weekend, two shortwaves will move through the region; one on Sunday morning, and the second one overnight. Scattered snow showers are expected with the first shortwave on Sunday morning; precipitation will remain light, with isolated accumulations, if any, up to 1/2 inch possible. Mostly cloudy skies are expected for the rest of the day with highs in the mid to upper 30s across the area.


Next Week: Chilly, Then Mild And Rainy

Cooler temperatures will briefly return on Monday, with breezy conditions expected and highs in the low to mid 30s inland and mid to possibly upper 30s for the rest of the area. Warmer temperatures will return by the middle of next week, reaching the 40s across the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday, a low pressure will move into the Great Lakes, bringing rain into the region; the models vary with the track and intensity, ranging from the GFS with heavy rain, wind and nearly 60 degrees, to the ECM which only shows a weak low pressure on Friday. At this time, I am siding with a weaker low pressure than the latest GFS, with temperatures in the 40s, reaching the 50s for parts of I-95 corridor, along with some rain.

As tomorrow's updated winter outlook will discuss in more details, this storm is not the start of a very cold and snowy pattern for the region, which some of the latest GFS runs have been showing with a sustained cold pattern developing over the region. With a more active MJO in phases favoring above average 500mb heights in the eastern US, as well as a persistent ridge in the southeastern US and a ridge axis offshore, west of the western US coast, the pattern favors the overall trough axis and coldest temperatures staying near the central-western US, with a mild pattern with more rain than snow likely for the area through at least the 15-20th.