Jan 2, 2013: Dry Until Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

The current pattern continues through next week with cold temperatures and very little, if any precipitation. Temperatures will initially start out cold, with widespread lows in the 10s again tonight away from NYC, but will gradually moderate through the weekend and next week, ending up warmer to much warmer than average, followed by a potential rain event in the second half of next week.

---

Through This Weekend: Dry; Moderating Temperatures

The cold temperatures observed last night and today will return again for Thursday, with morning temperatures expected to be similar to those of Wednesday morning, in the upper single digits to low 10s inland, mid 10s to low 20s for the north/west suburbs and Long Island/southern CT, and low to mid 20s in NYC. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s across most of the area, which is several degrees colder than average.

Temperatures will gradually warm through Friday and the weekend, reaching the low to mid 30s on Friday and the mid to upper 30s during the weekend, perhaps touching 40 degrees near NYC; partly sunny skies are mostly expected, although increased cloud cover is likely on Sunday. Two separate shortwaves will move through the region, but will fail to organize into a single large low pressure; instead, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected on Sunday with snow showers north of the area, followed by a weak low pressure developing well to the south and east of the area overnight. The model guidance is still having some difficulty handling the specific details regarding these shortwaves, and the possibility is there for scattered light rain/snow showers on Sunday.


Next Week: Warmer; Rainy Mid-Late Week Possible

A chilly air mass will remain over the Northeast through early next week, with slightly cooler highs on Monday, in the low to mid 30s for most of the area. As 500mb heights rise in the East, warmer temperatures will return, reaching the 40s across the area by the middle of next week. Some models indicate the possibility of 50+ degrees in the area by some point later in the week; while this is possible, at this time this appears to be a bit too warm. Meanwhile, a storm is expected to develop over the central United States, reaching the Great Lakes by late next week, bringing a surge of warmth and at least some rain into the region followed by cooler temperatures behind it. More information on this storm, as well as the pattern that is likely to follow this storm, will be posted with the updated winter outlook on Friday.