Jan 30, 2013 Storm Updates

Updates will be posted on the rain, thunderstorm and high wind event currently affecting the region. Live storm updates will be posted on Twitter, with a few detailed updates in the bottom of this post. This afternoon's forecast discussion for this storm can be found here.

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Live storm updates will be posted on Twitter occasionally throughout the day.

Latest Twitter Updates:  (Scroll to the bottom of the post for blog updates)

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Blog Updates:

9:05 AM: Following last night's update, occasional showers moved into the western parts of the area, but a thin line of heavy rain moved through the area later in the overnight hours, reaching NYC towards 4 AM. This line produced very heavy rainfall rates considering the time of the year, with locations west and north of NYC reaching and exceeding an inch of rain; some locations recorded as much as 1/2 inch in just 1 hour. Wind gusts were strong as well, with widespread gusts between 45-60 mph in the immediate NYC area, Long Island and southern CT, with some stations in Connecticut and Long Island reporting gusts above 65 to even 70 mph.

As of this morning, the rain bands are exiting the eastern parts of the area, with windy conditions expected to continue today, including gusts up to 45-50 mph. After the unseasonable warmth yesterday and last night, with Newark, NJ setting a record high temperature of 64 degrees, temperatures will steadily fall throughout the day into the 40s and 30s. The next forecast discussion will be posted tonight, with more information on several upcoming light snow events, including one throughout the day on Sunday with accumulations possible.

12:05 AM: The area of heavy rain and thunderstorms over Pennsylvania, after training in place for a few hours, is starting to advance east towards the area; more steady rain is developing in western locations, and will continue to intensify over the next 1-2 hours while gradually spreading east towards the closer suburbs of NYC. Towards 2-4 AM, the heaviest rain is expected to move through northern NJ, SE NY and NYC, weakening as it heads towards Long Island and southern CT; stronger wind gusts are also expected around this time frame.

This is the last update for tonight. A review of tonight's storm, as well as an update on the forecast for the weekend light snow potential, will be posted tomorrow.


10:35 PM: Over the last few hours, the heavy rain remained mostly west of the area, with locally moderate showers for some locations west of NYC while the heaviest rain trained over Pennsylvania. Latest radar estimates and airport measurements show most of the area so far has received less than 0.10 inch of rain, with the highest totals so far west of NYC. The strongest wind gusts currently remain further south towards southern-central New Jersey, generally up to 25-40 mph.

As expected, the heaviest rain so far stayed west of the area, but will begin to advance eastwards over the next few hours, with a thin line of heavy rain and thunderstorms expected to move through the area later tonight, moving into locations west of NYC approximately between 1-3 AM and east of NYC between 3-5 AM. The rain will continue for several hours afterwards, ending by the early morning hours. Strong wind gusts are still expected tonight, in the 45-60 mph range for most, as the low level jet continues to intensify with 925mb winds peaking near 90 knots in the eastern parts of the area, some of those mixing down to the surface. Stronger winds will continue into Thursday as well, with a west wind gusting up to 40-50 mph.

5:15 PM: Since the last update earlier this afternoon, temperatures have spiked into the mid 50s to low 60s across most of northern NJ and parts of NYC, while Long Island and southern CT continue to observe fog, dense in some locations, with temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Temperatures are expected to remain generally steady throughout the evening and early overnight hours, likely rising in parts of Long Island and southern CT.

The cold front is currently located near western Pennsylvania; the latest radar to the left shows a weakening area of precipitation over Pennsylvania, which will continue to track east with occasional showers for western and northern parts of the area this evening and early tonight, but the main storms to affect the area tonight are still over the Southeast US, with a squall line developing later this evening and early tonight near western Virginia and Pennsylvania and gradually tracking east, reaching locations west of NYC between 1-4 AM and locations east of NYC after 3-4 AM. Heavy rain is expected with amounts generally up to 1/2 to 1 inch, locally higher in interior north/west areas; strong wind gusts are expected as well, in the 45-60 mph range across the area. Rain is expected to end for most except for eastern areas by Thursday morning with windy conditions expected to continue.

Jan 30, 2013: Heavy Rain, Thunder, Wind Tonight

Forecast Highlights:

The most active weather week since the start of the new year continues; following widespread light snow, sleet and ice on Monday, temperatures are currently in the upper 40s to mid 50s and are expected to continue rising ahead of a cold front, currently producing a widespread heavy rain and severe thunderstorm outbreak in the central US, which will move through the area tonight with rain up to/locally over 1 inch and wind gusts in excess of 50-55 mph. A colder and drier pattern will return for the weekend and next week.

Long Range Pattern Outlook #9

Note: Instead of a discussion tonight, an update on the latest forecast for tomorrow night's rain/wind/thunderstorms will be posted on the Twitter page. A more detailed discussion will be posted late on Wednesday morning.


Brief Overview:

Today's long range pattern outlook focuses on the medium range pattern going into early-mid February. Following the current mild temperatures, a colder pattern will return for the first week of February, with several minor snow potentials, followed by moderation in the pattern but with a lower likelihood of a significantly warmer than average pattern.


Click below to read the full post.

Jan 28, 2013 Storm Updates

Below, storm updates will be posted on the light snow, ice and rain event currently affecting the area. The final forecast for this storm, including the latest forecast for heavy rain/thunder/wind on Wednesday, can be found here.

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10:45 AM: Over the last 2 hours, snow moved into the area especially from NYC and further west, with widespread accumulations observed west and north of NYC, generally over 1/2 inch; some areas further west reported totals slightly over an inch. The changeover to sleet looks to be happening a bit earlier than expected, with western areas already reporting mixing, and the mixing line should continue to shift east towards noon and the early afternoon hours, with NYC and Long Island changing to rain and interior areas to sleet and light freezing rain, although freezing rain amounts should generally remain minimal.

8:45 AM: The Great Lakes snow/ice storm quickly moved into the region last night, and has produced widespread light snow across Pennsylvania, with some locations recording over an inch of snow. Behind the main shield of precipitation, temperatures aloft rise above freezing, and widespread light freezing rain or drizzle should develop over Pennsylvania throughout this morning.

The steadier precipitation is still on track to arrive into the area towards 9 AM-12 PM. Precipitation should initially start out as a period of light snow, with locations north and west of NYC seeing 1/2 to 1 inch of snow, perhaps a bit higher towards interior areas. The precipitation will be quick to move through, and by the early afternoon hours, towards 12-2 PM west of NYC and 2-4 PM east of NYC, precipitation will begin to mix with sleet and freezing rain for most of the area, with NYC and Long Island quickly changing over to rain. Freezing drizzle will continue for interior areas through this evening, with up to 0.05 inch of ice possible, perhaps locally higher in some areas.

Jan 27, 2013: Snow/Ice Tomorrow, Then T-Storms/Wind

Forecast Highlights:

Today was the last day of the  cold spell across the region with highs the warmest they have been in a week, peaking in the low to mid 30s across the area, the first time since last Monday that temperatures reached 32 degrees in Central Park. A rather active setup is unfolding for this week, starting out with light snow, sleet and freezing rain on Monday, mostly west and north of NYC, eventually ending up with nearly 60 degrees on Wednesday with heavy rain, thunderstorms and strong winds.

Jan 26, 2013: Wintry Mix Monday, Then Warm

Forecast Highlights:

Following last night's light snow event, less cloud cover was observed with breezy winds. Temperatures were colder than average again, peaking in the mid to upper 20s across the area, marking the 5th consecutive day temperatures failed to rise above 30 degrees in Central Park. High temps will continue to rise on Sunday and Monday, with widespread light snow, sleet and freezing rain expected on Monday, ahead of a brief yet strong warm up with temperatures rising to nearly 60 degrees on Wednesday.

Jan 25, 2013: Freezing Rain Likely Monday

Forecast Highlights:

A light snow event affected the area this afternoon and evening, with widespread totals near and slightly above an inch observed, making this the biggest event across the area since 1/21 in Long Island, 1/16 for interior areas, and 12/29 in NYC. Cold temperatures will continue on Saturday, although following a snow/rain/freezing rain event on Monday, a short lasting warm up is expected next week with highs returning into the 40s with widespread rain for the mid week before a colder pattern returns.

Jan 25, 2013 Evening Update

5:08 PM: Light Snow Moving In

Over the last 1/2 hour, light snow showers quickly moved into the area from Pennsylvania; parts of the area are observing light to locally moderate snow, while others especially further north and NE are still cloudy with isolated snow showers. The relatively higher totals with today's storm were further south in the central Mid Atlantic region, with the area expected to get a few hours of light snow before the storm quickly moves out. Accumulations will remain under 1 inch for most, with locally higher totals up to 2 inches towards Long Island and south of NYC.

The next update will be posted tonight, discussing a freezing rain potential for Monday, a brief warm up with rain later next week, followed by a return to a colder pattern.

Jan 24, 2013: Snow Tomorrow, Warmer Next Week

Forecast Highlights

Very cold temperatures continued for another day, with temperatures this morning dropping into the single digits across most of the area and the low 10s closer to NYC and the coast; a low of 1 degree was observed in Montgomery, NY with lows similarly approaching zero in other parts of NW NJ, interior SE NY, southern CT away from the coast, and in eastern parts of Long Island. Highs were slightly warmer than yesterday but remained very cold, only peaking in the low to mid 20s across the area.

The cold will moderate over the next few days with a fast moving storm producing light snow on Friday evening across the area, generally up to 1 to locally 2 inches. Moderately cold temperatures will continue through the weekend, before a warmer pattern returns for next week with high temperatures back into the 40s along with widespread rain, perhaps starting out with snow/freezing rain.

Jan 23, 2013: Frigid Temps Continue; Snow Friday Night

Forecast Highlights

Another very cold day has been observed across the area, with high temperatures only peaking in the upper 10s to low 20s across the area, about 15-20 degrees below average for some locations. These frigid temperatures will continue through the weekend, with lows tonight and tomorrow night approaching 0 degrees inland. A storm will affect the area on Friday with light snow accumulations, followed by a temporarily warmer pattern for next week ahead of a colder early February pattern.

Jan 22, 2013: Cold Continues; Snow Expected Friday

Forecast Highlights:

Very cold temperatures were observed today with a cold air mass over the region, with daytime highs peaking in the upper 10s inland and the low 20s across the rest of the area. Windy conditions were observed as well with gusts up to 25-35 mph, resulting in wind chills in the single digits across the area. These cold temperatures will continue through the rest of the week into Saturday, while a storm on Friday is expected to produce snow across the area, but with uncertainty regarding accumulations.

Jan 22, 2013 Noon Update

Friday Storm Update

As the last few discussions have mentioned, a storm is expected to affect the area on Friday with snow. Until this point, there has been a general consensus for moderate accumulations, ranging from light on some models to significant on others. Today's model guidance, however, has considerably changed from yesterday, with only the UKMET model holding on to a strong northern low pressure. The GFS model has been consistently suppressed with the low pressure intensifying too far offshore, with only light snow showers, while the CMC has been continuously trending south and weaker. The 12z ECM was also weaker and further south than the 0z run, which had significant snowfall across the area.

This event is still at least 78-96 hours away, roughly 3.5 days, and additional changes are expected with the model guidance. Some, but not all, storms this winter have had moderate to significant changes within the 3-4 day range, including 12/29 when a coastal low developed much closer to the coast than initially thought, 1/16 when a storm originally shown to be significantly suppressed ended up far north enough to keep the heaviest snowfall north of the area, and 1/17 when a storm initially shown to remain only in southern Virginia significantly trended north to affect locations up to central NJ, but with the model guidance overdone on the northern extent. In this case, such significant changes are not too likely, although considering that the shortwave responsible for this event is still over the Pacific with a lack of data sampling, along with different handling of the northern stream and the trough over the region with each model run, additional changes are expected with the model guidance, and the possibility remains that the models trend towards at least a somewhat more amplified storm to result in a moderate snowstorm for parts of the region.

At this time, the 5-day forecast remains the same, highlighting snow developing in the afternoon and ending overnight with the potential for moderate accumulations, although I will continue to monitor the latest trends, and should a weaker solution become more apparent, the forecast may be revised to reflect more light as opposed to moderate accumulations, although there remains high confidence on snow falling with accumulations across the area. Stay tuned for more information with tonight's update.

Jan 21, 2013: Moderate Snowstorm For Friday

**This post is from January 21, 2013. For the latest forecast, please refer to the main page.**

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Forecast Higlights:

A light snow event affected the area this evening, with up to 3-4" in isolated parts of Long Island. An arctic air mass will bring very cold temperatures tonight through Thursday, with black ice expected on wet surfaces tonight along with wind chills in the single digits to near zero throughout the day on Tuesday. The cold will continue through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with a storm potentially producing moderate snow accumulations on Friday.

Jan 21, 2013 Storm Updates

Below, storm updates will be posted on the light snow event currently affecting the area.

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9:45 PM: The main snow band is starting to shift east towards eastern Long Island and eventually offshore, as the back end of the storm moves east as the low pressure, currently southeast of Long Island, continues to intensify while moving further offshore. Heavy snow will continue for a while before ending in eastern Long Island within the next hour. Isolated snow showers are still possible tonight, although for the main part should add little, if any, accumulations. Totals have exceeded initial expectations in portions of Long Island, locally as high as 3-4 inches, although these totals are isolated with more widespread totals between a dusting an 2 inches observed, which was within the forecast range.

Conditions will become dangerously cold and icy tonight into tomorrow. With an arctic air mass moving in, temperatures will rapidly drop through the 20s tonight, dropping into the mid 10s to low 20s across most of the area and the low to mid 20s in NYC. Hazardous road conditions are possible with areas of black ice expected on wet roads and surfaces. Windy conditions are expected as well, with sustained winds up to 20-25 mph, resulting in wind chills in the single digits across the area throughout the day tomorrow, dropping below zero for interior areas. Stay tuned for a more detailed update tonight on the cold, as well as the upcoming Friday snowstorm.


8:35 PM: Over the last few hours, a heavy snow band set up over portions of southern-central NJ into central-eastern Long Island. With high snow to liquid equivalent ratios above 10:1, snow accumulations above 1 inch have been reported in this narrow band, with localized totals of near to slightly above 2 inches so far as snow continues to fall.

The back end of the snow is moving towards the I-95 corridor, and will take the longest to push through Long Island, where locally moderate to heavy snow will continue to fall through the rest of the evening, ending by at least 12-1 AM for most. By the time the snow ends, totals of at least 1 to 2 inches are expected for most, with localized totals above 3 inches. Further north and west, a few snow showers are expected with up to 1/2 inch, locally higher in some areas closer to the main band.


8:30 PM: Due to difficulties with Twitter, I was unable to post storm updates earlier today. Only blog updates will be posted tonight, starting shortly.

Jan 20, 2013: Snow Returns Monday, Friday

Forecast Highlights:

Today marked the end of the mild pattern, which did not go down uneventfully with temperatures well above average again, peaking in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the area. With a cold front moving through the area, a much colder air mass will remain in place through the week and next weekend, which will be accompanied by two snowstorms, one on Monday night and a bigger snowstorm on Friday.

Jan 19, 2013: Very Cold Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

A mild air mass is keeping temperatures warmer than average this weekend, peaking in the 40s across the area. This is only short lived, however, as a much more wintry pattern develops for the region starting next week, with much colder temperatures only reaching the 20s for highs and the 10s and single digits for lows. Along with the cold come two snow potentials; a minor event producing light snow on Monday night, and a potentially bigger storm on Friday and Saturday.

Jan 17, 2013: Mild Weekend, Cold Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

Another storm stayed south of the area, with isolated rain/snow showers observed in Long Island. This storm will continue to move offshore tonight, with mostly sunny skies and cold temperatures returning for Friday. Temperatures will warm back up into the 40s this weekend with sunshine, although a cold front will bring a strong yet temporary cold air mass into the region, with the coldest temperatures of the winter so far expected.

Jan 16, 2013: Winter Pattern Getting Started

Forecast Highlights:

Following last night's winter storm which affected the area with snow, sleet and freezing rain north/west of NYC and mostly rain for NYC and south/east, temperatures will slightly warm up on Thursday, with a storm staying mostly south of the area before colder temps return on Friday. After a brief warm up this weekend, a much colder pattern is expected for next week.

January 16, 2013 Storm Summary

January 16, 2013 Storm Summary

A weak low pressure developed along a stalled frontal boundary, producing the only widespread snow event of January 2013 in the NYC area. A mix of snow, sleet and rain fell in NYC and further south/east with less than an inch, with moderate snow to the north and west of NYC with 2 to 4 inches of snow. The storm was the most significant of the 3 low pressures that affected the region during this time frame.

Jan 15, 2013 Storm Updates

Below, storm updates will be posted on the latest storm affecting the area with snow, sleet, ice and rain. For the final storm forecast, as well as an update on the longer range, scroll down to the next post or click here. Tonight's blog update substitutes the usual short blog discussions included in storm update mode.

For localized forecasts, please refer to the 5-Day Forecast.

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Twitter Updates Archive:

2:14 AM: Mixing line starting to retreat northward; I-80 corridor changing from snow/sleet to sleet/rain. Snow continues further inland.

1:30 AM: According to latest radar, mixing line stalled just south of I-80. Rain, some sleet south of the line; snow/sleet further north.

1:12 AM: Accumulations will continue to add up over the next few hours as precip gradually changes over to sleet, then rain.

1:11 AM: Heavy snow continues for interior areas, snow/some sleet in the north/west suburbs, with rain/sleet in NYC and west/SW.

12:40 AM: Snow/sleet mix reported in north/west suburbs of NYC, mod-heavy snow for interior NW areas. Accumulations so far coating to 1/2".

12:35 AM: No major changes so far, some locations closer to NYC mixing with snow. Sleet/snow mix to continue through next few hours.

10:59 PM: Sleet likely to be main precip type for north/west suburbs of NYC. Interior areas snow to mix/rain, NYC sleet to rain.

10:56 PM: Storm updates starting now. Sleet falling from NYC and west/north, mixing with snow inland, more rain east.

Jan 15, 2013: Snow, Rain, Sleet, Ice Tonight

Forecast Highlights:

The first widespread wintry precipitation event since late December will affect the region tonight, with mostly rain from NYC and further south/east and snow, sleet and freezing rain north and west of NYC, with light snow and ice accumulations. While there has not been much wintry weather in the region so far this year, winter has yet to peak; the pattern will trend colder beyond next weekend, with an increased risk of snowstorms in the long range, one of them possible early next week.

Jan 14, 2013: Rain/Snow Weds; Long Range Update

Forecast Highlights:

Temperatures ended up spiking this morning ahead of the cold front, peaking in the low to mid 50s inland and the mid to upper 50s for the rest of the area; parts of Long Island and southern CT reached 60 degrees. A cold front is moving through the region cooling temperatures down while producing rain/sleet, with a storm on Wednesday expected to produce rain for coastal areas and snow inland. The pattern will continue to fluctuate through next weekend, but the peak of winter has yet to arrive in the region as the pattern progressively becomes colder and more active.

Jan 14, 2013 Noon Update

Update On Wednesday Rain/Snow Storm

Last night's update mentioned that the model guidance has trended north with the Wednesday event, and only a minor change in the track makes the difference between a dry, snowy or rainy outcome. Today's models continued this north trend, to the point where most show the area in the rain/snow boundary area. Currently, most models are in the colder side of this boundary, with at least 2 to 4 inches of snow in northern NJ and especially over SE NY and southern Connecticut. The GFS is the warmest model, with mostly rain for the area and a widespread snowstorm towards interior southern-central New England.

The main question at this time regarding the model guidance is if the north trend has stopped or whether the models are still in the process of adjusting north, considering that just yesterday afternoon most of the models still had the storm staying almost entirely south of the area. If the storm was to end up near the current model consensus, widespread light accumulating snow would be expected west and north of NYC, with some snow in NYC and Long Island as well. This would lead to something close to the first scenario shown below:

Meanwhile, the GFS, UKMET and SREF models are siding with the more northern outcome, in which the low pressure is stronger and more to the north. This solution would support rain for most of the area with snow for northern locations, also mixing with sleet/rain at some point, with the rest of the Northeast observing a moderate snowstorm, as was the case with the two most recent snowstorms, on December 26 and 29. This would lead to a solution close to the second scenario shown below:

There is still uncertainty with exactly which solution verifies. The model spread remains large considering this is only 42-48 hours away; using Albany, NY for perspective, the NAM model keeps snow south of Albany, while the GFS is far north/warm enough to show rain mixing with snow in Albany, with the heaviest snow north of there. The model guidance has not settled on a single solution yet, and will continue to change around over the next day. A more detailed forecast will be posted tonight and tomorrow; at this time, while the latest 18z GFS run may have been a bit too far north/warm with showing rain for almost the entire area, the rest of the models may be too cold/far south as well, and at this time I am siding with a moderately north solution closer to the 12z GFS. There is still some uncertainty, however, and should a slightly more southern scenario verify, a more wintry outlook would unfold for the area.

For more localized forecasts, please refer to the 5-Day Forecast, which is currently being updated. Stay tuned for more information with tonight's update.

Jan 13, 2013: Light Rain/Snow Possible Tues-Weds

Forecast Highlights:

Today was another cloudy and foggy day across the area, with high temperatures again slightly cooler than expected and similar to those of yesterday, peaking in the low to mid 40s inland and mid 40s to about 50 degrees for the rest of the area.

Temperatures will peak on Monday morning before a cold front moves through, cooling temperatures down to at least slightly warmer than average, with a light rain/snow event on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will remain generally near-slightly warmer than average until next weekend, with a colder pattern likely afterwards.

Jan 12, 2013: Mild This Week, Then Much Colder

Forecast Highlights:

With cloudy skies and widespread fog across the area, temperatures ended up colder than expected, peaking in the low to mid 40s in NW NJ/SE NY and the mid to upper 40s for the rest of the area. Overnight lows, however, will remain very mild, in the 40s tonight and even some 50s on Sunday night, which is warmer than the average highs.

Fog will continue tonight and tomorrow, with the warmest temperatures peaking on Monday morning ahead of a frontal passage. Scattered rain and snow showers are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, although mostly staying south of the area. Temperatures will mostly remain slightly warmer than average through next weekend and early the following week, but will not remain mild for long.

Jan 11, 2013: Cloudy, Mild Weekend Ahead

Forecast Highlights:

Following today's rain event, which has slightly exceeded expectations with 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain across the area, a mainly cloudy and unseasonably mild weekend is expected, with temperatures peaking in the 50s, at least 15 to 25 degrees warmer than average. A cold front will move through on Monday, but temperatures will still remain above average through the rest of the week, with a wave of low pressure producing showers and possibly some snow on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Long Range Pattern Outlook #8

Minor revisions were made on January 12.

Brief Overview:

Today's long range pattern outlook focuses on the medium range pattern going into late January. Pattern changes are underway which will result in a colder pattern for the region, but the question remains how cold the pattern will be and how much storminess is associated with it.


Click below to read the full post.

Jan 9, 2013: Mild Weekend, Then Rain

Note: Tonight's post includes a brief overview of the longer range pattern beyond mid next week. Tomorrow's pattern outlook will discuss the longer range, specifically the upcoming pattern for the end of January, in more details.

Forecast Highlights:

Due to unexpected scattered showers and more cloud cover than expected, temperatures today were not as warm as expected but still warmer than average, in the low to mid 40s inland, mid 40s in southern CT, and upper 40s-low 50s for the rest of the area. Temperatures will slightly cool down on Thurs and Fri with a light rain event on Friday, but warm up again for the weekend with temperatures as much as 15-25 degrees warmer than average before a cold front ends the warmth early next week.

Jan 8, 2013: Warmer Temps Last Into Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

Mild temperatures continued across the region today; following cold overnight lows for some with 10s for interior locations, temperatures quickly warmed up, peaking in the low to mid 40s inland and upper 40s to near 50 for the rest of the area. Warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow before cooling down slightly for the late week with rain on Friday; even warmer temperatures, however, are expected for the weekend, as much as 15-25 degrees warmer than average.

Jan 7, 2013: 50+ Degrees On Wednesday

Forecast Highlights:

Today marked the start of a much warmer than average week across the region with widespread highs in the low to mid 40s observed. Temperatures will continue to warm up over the next two days, peaking in the low to mid 50s on Wednesday in NYC. After a slight cool down on Thursday and Friday, along with a light rain event on Friday, warm temperatures are expected again for the weekend with 50s in parts of the area, with this round of unseasonable warmth ending on Sunday or Monday with a cold front moving through, which will cool temperatures down but will fail to produce a colder than average pattern for the region.

Jan 6, 2013: Mild Week Coming Up

Forecast Highlights:

The dry pattern that has been in place since the 12/29 storm continued through the last week, with only scattered snow showers observed last night with as much as 1/2 inch towards parts of southern NJ, PA, and southern New England. While temperatures will moderate through next week, ending up much warmer than average with highs in the 40s and occasionally 50s, no precipitation is expected until late this coming week, when a more active pattern develops in the US with the first rain event affecting the region.

Updated 2012-2013 Winter Outlook

This is the updated winter 2012-13 outlook; the main outlook from November, which is referenced throughout this outlook, can be found here. The most recent updated winter outlook, posted on January 2012 for the winter of 2011-12, can be found here.

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Updated Winter 2012-2013 Outlook
NYC Area Weather

Since the winter outlook was issued at the end of November, three snow events have affected the area during the month of December, with accumulations mostly to the north and west of NYC while Central Park has only recorded 0.4 inch in the entire month. The final outlook expected December to be slightly warmer than average with slightly below average snowfall; this was the overall theme of December, but the month ended up even warmer than expected. The majority of January, however, is shaping up to be mild for the region, and the outlook for January has been revised to slightly warmer than average for the region.

Jan 3, 2013: Rain Returns Late Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

The dry pattern in place will continue through early next week, with no precipitation other than light snow early on Sunday. Following the current cold temperatures, a warming trend is expected by the weekend, with highs returning into the 40s and possibly the 50s next week. Stormier conditions will return into the eastern half of the US starting mid-late next week with a storm producing rain and wind across the region.

Jan 2, 2013: Dry Until Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

The current pattern continues through next week with cold temperatures and very little, if any precipitation. Temperatures will initially start out cold, with widespread lows in the 10s again tonight away from NYC, but will gradually moderate through the weekend and next week, ending up warmer to much warmer than average, followed by a potential rain event in the second half of next week.

Jan 1, 2013: Dry Pattern Continues

Forecast Highlights:

The main and one of the only highlights of this week is the dry pattern that started following the December 29 storm, with very little, if any precipitation expected through at least the next 7-10 days. Temperatures will start out cold, but not as cold as initially expected, and temperatures will warm up back towards above average by the medium range.

Dec 31, 2012: Cold Start To New Year

Forecast Highlights:

The active pattern that has been in place over the last week ended in time for the new year, with mostly cloudy skies and isolated flurries expected for the first day of 2013. A cold and dry pattern will continue through the first week of January, with no precipitation expected, which will be followed by a warmer pattern towards the middle of the month.