Oct 20, 2012: Warmer Next Week

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Forecast Highlights:

• Warming up for first half of next week
• Some rain, briefly cooler on Weds, then warmer
• Cold front, rain likely next weekend
• Tropics: Caribbean tropical cyclone likely to form

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Today - Thursday: Chilly, Then Slightly Warmer

With a trough over the region, mostly clear skies are expected tonight as temperatures drop into the upper 30s to low 40s inland and the mid to upper 40s for the rest of the area except for NYC, in the low 50s. Mostly sunny skies are expected again for Sunday with highs in the low to mid 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s for the rest of the area. Temperatures overnight will be similar to those of Saturday night, with highs on Monday reaching the mid to upper 60s inland and the upper 60s for the rest of the area.

Scattered showers are expected on Tuesday, especially north of NYC, lasting into the overnight hours and possibly into Wednesday as well. High temperatures on Tuesday are a bit more uncertain; at this time, highs are likely to be in the low to mid 60s, although southern parts of the area may reach the upper 60s. Warmer temperatures are expected for Wednesday, getting into the mid to upper 60s for most of the area and possibly getting into the low 70s for NYC/NE NJ and further south and SW. Slightly cooler high temperatures are expected on Thursday as the area remains near a temperature gradient, with chilly temperatures in the Northeast and warmth in the Mid Atlantic.


Friday - Longer Range: Much Warmer, 70s Return

Mild overnight lows are expected for Thursday night as a Canadian high pressure drops south through the eastern parts of the region and southeast of the area, resulting in a SW flow for Friday along with warmer temperatures, surging into the 70s across most of the area, with coastal areas likely the main exception.

As will be discussed in more detail with Sunday's long range pattern outlook, a strong arctic air mass will drop into the central US, where a widespread cold outbreak is expected late next week into next weekend. The cold front is expected to slowly reach the area sometime next weekend, with at least some rain likely along with high temperatures ahead of the cold front likely staying in the 70s. Behind this front, however, changes may be coming to the pattern - stay tuned for Sunday's pattern outlook for more information on what will happen behind the cold front, going into Halloween and early November, along with another brief segment on the upcoming winter.


Tropics: Tropical Cyclone Likely To Form

Invest 99L has formed in the Caribbean, and the National Hurricane Center is currently giving this a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. Once forming, this potential tropical cyclone is likely to generally move north to NNE, affecting Jamaica, Cuba and Hispaniola, moving offshore from there. 99L is not expected to directly affect the United States.