Oct 19, 2012: Cooler Weekend, Then Warmer

Forecast Highlights:

- Cooler temps return for weekend; lows in 40s, highs in 60s
- Warming up back to 70s next week
- Colder temperatures to gradually return by end of month

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Weekend Outlook: Cooler, Drier

According to radar estimates, today's rain event generally brought between 1/2 and 1 inch of rain from NYC and north/west, including parts of southern CT and central Long Island, with some areas observing higher totals. The latest radar shows scattered thunderstorms affecting the eastern parts of the area; isolated to scattered showers, locally heavy, will continue tonight, with partly sunny skies expected for Saturday with highs in the mid 60s inland and the upper 60s to low 70s for the rest of the area and a breezy SW wind.

With mostly clear skies on Saturday night, temperatures will drop into the upper 30s to low 40s for interior north and western areas, with other parts of the area away from NYC generally dropping into the low to mid 40s. The immediate suburbs are expected to be slightly warmer, in the mid to upper 40s, with lows in NYC in the upper 40s to low 50s. Mostly sunny skies are expected again for Sunday with highs in the low to mid 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s for the rest of the area.


Next Week's Outlook: Warmer, Mostly Dry

With a strong trough stuck near the NW US, ridging is expected for the eastern half of the United States, while a trough in southeastern Canada south of a strong block east of Greenland will prevent ridging from building too far north, with the Northeast starting out cooler. Temperatures are generally expected to stay in the mid 60s to low 70s across the area, with the warmest temperatures near and SW of NYC and the coolest temperatures in the northern and NE parts of the area. Some showers are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday, especially north of NYC and in southern Connecticut.

Model solutions begin to diverge going into late next week as the GFS develops a strong low pressure in the north central US, producing a blizzard from Minnesota into southern Canada, while the ECM has a weaker cold front moving through the area in the late week, followed by rising 500mb heights and briefly warmer temperatures ahead of an arctic cold outbreak. The CMC model maintains a generally zonal flow across the county, although its long range is not very reliable. More on the longer range outlook will be discussed with Sunday's long range pattern outlook, although the potential is still there for a colder pattern to develop towards the very end of October or early November, although should this happen, the core of the cold is unlikely to end up over the region.