Oct 12, 2012: Very Cold Tonight, Freeze Expected

Forecast Highlights:

- Widespread frost/freeze tonight, lows in mid 20s-low 30s away from NYC
- Quick warm up to the 70s for Sunday-Monday; windy
- Additional rain expected with cold front, low pressure on Monday night
- Another storm late next week, then colder

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Tonight - Saturday: Cold, Frost And Freeze Expected

Following today's cold frontal passage, a much colder air mass moved into the region, accompanied by scattered showers and even some frozen precipitation in New England. A high pressure will provide clear skies along with temperatures aloft at 850mb dropping to -4C, setting up for the coldest night of the fall so far. Lows will drop into the mid to upper 20s for interior north/west areas, upper 20s to mid 30s for most of the north/west suburbs of NYC, southern CT, and colder parts of eastern/central Long Island, with upper 30s to low 40s in NYC and coastal areas. Mostly sunny skies are expected on Saturday with highs in the low to mid 50s inland and the mid 50s for the rest of the area.


Sunday - Tuesday: Warmer, Windy, Some Rain

As mentioned with last weekend's pattern outlook, a 500mb low entered California and will gradually move northeast through the central US this weekend, reaching the region on Sunday. The majority of the rain will stay north of the area, although scattered showers are still expected on Saturday night north of NYC, with a surge of warmth bringing temperatures into the upper 60s to low 70s across the area with mostly cloudy skies. Windy conditions are expected as well with SW winds likely gusting up to at least 30-35 mph.

The low pressure will track not far north of the Northeast US and southern Canadian border, with a cold front expected to move through on Monday resulting in some showers with highs still in the upper 60s to low 70s. The model guidance splits for Tuesday with some models quickly taking the cold front offshore, while the GFS and CMC develop another low pressure with clouds and chilly temperatures sticking around on Tuesday. At this time, I sided with an in between solution, with partly cloudy skies and colder highs, in the upper 50s to low 60s across the area, although the outlook is still subject to some changes, perhaps to show some more cloud colder and colder temperatures.


Late Next Week: Warmer, More Rain

Behind the early week storms, dry conditions will return for the middle of next week with highs generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s likely. By late Thursday and Friday, however, the next storm will move into the region. Despite lower heights near the NW US and the NE Pacific, ridging is expected in Greenland and eastern Canada, with a closed 500mb low likely developing over the north central US, affecting the region by Friday. There is still uncertainty regarding the duration of the event, ranging from the DGEX which simply shows a cold front moving through, to the GFS which has a heavier rain event and the ECM which keeps stormy conditions through the weekend. Regardless of the exact outcome, colder temperatures will return for this time frame with highs back in the 50s along with showers. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range outlook.