Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Hurricane Sandy Summary
For many years, the New York City area was said to have been overdue for an extreme hurricane; there have been many tropical cyclones over the last few decades, some with significant impacts, although most were weakening extratropical-transitioning cyclones once affecting the region and generally had more impacts in terms of flooding, or kept the worst impacts east of NYC. The last hurricane to hit the eastern United States was hurricane Irene in 2011; Irene made landfall in NYC as a tropical storm, and resulted in significant impact especially from flooding across the region, most notably in interior New England with devastating floods, but did not produce the worst possible impacts for coastal locations. Hurricane Sandy, however, took a different approach when affecting the region compared to typical East Coast hurricanes, with stronger intensity, longer duration, and extreme damage along the coast that have secured its place as one of the worst storms on record to affect both the NYC area, and with over $70 billion in damage, one of the most damaging storms in the United States as well, with Sandy the second costliest US hurricane in recorded history, only behind Hurricane Katrina.
Monday, October 29, 2012
Hurricane Sandy Updates
In this post, updates will be posted about the historic Hurricane Sandy as long as I have power. Should I lose power connection, updates will be suspended.
NOTE: Due to a change in schedule, live updating mode will begin earlier, at 1:30 PM. Updates will frequently be posted on Twitter regarding current observations, with slightly more detailed updates in this post regarding the progress of the storm and any potential changes of the forecast.
NYC Area Weather Twitter:
Scroll down below the Twitter updates for the latest detailed updates.
Tuesday Afternoon Brief Update:
Sandy has caused widespread devastation across the NYC area and the Northeast. Houses have been destroyed, streets and subway stations are flooded, and coastal locations along NYC, Long Island and New Jersey were left partially or mostly underwater by Sandy's surge which brought water levels at the battery to a record 13.88 feet, flooding lower Manhattan, while the majority of lower Manhattan south of 39th street was left without power. Widespread power outages continue, with over 900,000 customers with Long Island Power Authority and 800,000 customers with Con Ed without power, with outages for many likely to last for days. In the end, Sandy is expected to end up as one of the most expensive natural disasters in US history.
No forecast discussion will be posted today. The next forecast update will be either on Wednesday or Thursday, with an update on the weather following Sandy's departure from the region.
11:30 PM Update:
Looking at the next few hours, there are additional rain bands that will develop and move into the immediate NYC area and New Jersey, with strong wind gusts expected to continue, although the worst of the winds have peaked earlier this evening when a large part of the NYC area had gusts above 70 mph, with a few reports of 90+ mph gusts in Long Island. Wind gusts will gradually improve throughout the overnight hours, with occasional showers and windy conditions still expected later tonight into Tuesday with less winds than observed today, although the storm surge will remain a problem for many coastal locations in the NYC area and the Long Island Sound.
This is the last storm update for Sandy of the day. Unless I lose power, the next update is scheduled for Tuesday morning. Stay safe for the night.
The peak of the storm is currently underway across the area. Widespread wind gusts of 70-80+ mph have been reported, including a 90 mph gust in Islip, NY. The storm surge continues to rise, with widespread and significant coastal flooding affecting Long Island, NYC, and coastal New Jersey, as the Hudson River continues to flood into Jersey City and Hoboken. The surge continues to rise at the battery near the New York Harbor and is over 12 feet, and has yet to peak. The record flood stage was 11.25 feet. By now, the wind and storm surge are clearly worse than last year's Irene. By the time this storm ends, it will have its place as one of the worst storms on record to affect the NYC area.
The worst of the storm will continue for the next few hours, until at least 10 PM, with decreasing winds afterwards as additional rain develops especially west of NYC. Conditions will gradually improve throughout the overnight hours but windy conditions will continue, just not to the magnitude of what is currently being observed.
6:54 PM Update: A partial building collapse happened in 8th Ave. and 14th St. in Manhattan, although fortunately no one was significantly injured. For more information click here.
Widespread power outages are already affecting the area, with over 400,000 customers in Long Island alone without power. Wind gusts continue to steadily intensify across the area, and are generally in the 60-75 mph range across most of Long Island and coastal CT with lower gusts into northern NJ and SE NY. As Sandy makes landfall, a strong low level jet will move in which along with steeper lapse rates will result in the strongest winds of the storm out of the southeast, with widespread 65 to 85 mph gusts, perhaps locally up to 90 mph, expected, between at least 7 and 10 PM. Afterwards, wind gusts will gradually decrease with additional light to moderate rain expected.
The storm surge continues to rise as well, with Sandy Hook passing record stage of about 10 feet. Battery Park continues to rise as well and is up to 8.9 feet, expected to reach at least 11-12 feet this evening. The strongest winds will be from the southeast this evening, with the worst of the storm surge also expected around the high tide, which along with the full moon tonight is a set up for even more widespread and damaging coastal flooding.
The very worst of Sandy looks to hit the New Jersey coast, from Cape May to locations just south of New York City, with Atlantic City close to the worst of the storm. The storm is not onshore yet and conditions continue to rapidly deteriorate across the coast. Despite the landfall location and the speed changing, this does NOT mean that Sandy will spare the area of its impacts, as it remains a massive storm with the lowest minimum pressure ever recorded in the region. Wind gusts are still expected to peak in the 50-60 mph range for interior northwestern areas, 60-75 mph in the immediate NYC area, and 65-80 mph for most of Long Island and southern CT. Wind gusts of 85-90 mph may be possible for some areas with the peak of the storm this evening. Rain amounts, however, are expected to be lower than forecast due to the low pressure staying south, with at least 1 to 3 inches expected from today through Thursday across the area, locally higher west and south of NYC.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Oct 28, 2012: Final Hurricane Sandy Forecast
Brief Overview:
Sandy continues to steadily approach the region as a 75 mph hurricane, with its center currently east of North Carolina moving northeast. Sandy remains a massive hurricane, with tropical storm force winds extending up to 520 miles outward of its center and its rain bands already moving into the Northeast, as shown in the latest radar to the left. Sandy will turn towards the NW on Monday, making landfall over central New Jersey in the evening, resulting in widespread damage that is set to make Sandy a potentially historic storm. Click below to read the full post for the latest analysis on Sandy.Oct 28, 2012 - Zone A Evacuations Ordered
Live updates are being posted throughout the day in the NYC Area Weather Twitter page.
Breaking News - Bloomberg orders a mandatory evacuation of Zone A in NYC. Find your evacuation zone here. NYC Public schools have been closed for Monday, and mass transit in NYC will be suspended starting at 7 PM tonight.
1:30 PM: NJ Transit will begin a system-wide shut down of its bus, rail and light rail services starting at 4 PM, with a full shut down by 2 AM. No decision has been made yet regarding resumption of services. Read the full article here.
5:20 PM: If you have not prepared or evacuated, NOW is the time to do so. Mass transit is beginning to shut down, and tunnels and bridges in and out of NYC are likely to be closed as well. Conditions will only worsen tonight and throughout the day on Monday, with the peak in the evening and early overnight hours. Sandy is expected to be worse than Irene, with a longer duration, a significant storm surge of 6 to 11 feet for coastal areas, and widespread wind gusts between 60-75 mph across the area, potentially getting as high as 85-95 mph for coastal areas.
The final forecast discussion on Sandy will be posted late this evening. Live storm updates will be posted throughout Monday afternoon and evening unless I lose power, in which case updates will be suspended.
7:41 PM: Jersey City, NJ orders mandatory evacuation of low lying areas and flood zones by Monday morning. Hoboken, NJ also has mandatory evacuations of ground floor apartments by midnight.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Oct 27, 2012: Historic Impact from Hurricane Sandy
Brief Overview:
Oct 26, 2012: Hurricane Sandy Approaches
Brief Overview:
Attention tonight remains focused on Hurricane Sandy, which is currently located near the Bahamas, slowly but steadily making its way up the coast. Early next week, Sandy will strengthen while turning northwest, making landfall in the Northeast US as an abnormally strong storm with potentially historic impact across the region. Click below to read the full post for the latest analysis of Sandy.Thursday, October 25, 2012
Oct 25, 2012: Historic Storm Early Next Week
Brief Overview:
Oct 24, 2012 Brief Update
Note: For unknown reasons, the two polls in the right side of the blog have not been functioning properly, and keep erasing the previous votes every few hours. For now, I have the previous votes saved, and additional votes will be added with the previous ones. If the polls are still not functioning properly on Thursday, I will find an alternative voting method.
**Tonight's update is brief. An in-depth discussion will be posted on Thursday afternoon or evening.**
Hurricane Sandy Update
As of tonight, Sandy is rapidly intensifying while making landfall in eastern Cuba. Sandy intensified more than expected and is currently a 110 mph category 2 hurricane with a minimum pressure of 957 mb - in terms of minimum pressure, Sandy is the strongest hurricane of the year, and tied for 2nd place in terms of wind speeds. Sandy is very close to category 3 intensity, and may either briefly make it there or fall short before weakening slightly once moving out of Cuba. From there, Sandy will track NNW through the Bahamas before turning NE and moving parallel to the SE US coast but staying offshore.
Northeast Storm Update: Big Storm Scenario Gaining Support
As last night's discussion mentioned, the GFS was a likely outlier and was expected to trend towards more impact in the region, while the solutions with the phasing and retrograde into the Northeast US became more likely. The GFS is still lacking continuity between runs, although it took steps closer to the rest of the model guidance with a more favorable shortwave. The main difference between the GFS and the rest of the model guidance is that it has weaker ridging to the east of Sandy which separates the hurricane and a strong low pressure further out in the Atlantic, which opens up a small window for Sandy to escape east. Sandy does briefly escape east and misses the earlier phase that the rest of the global models show, although the very strong anomalous block to the north forces Sandy back west, and the storm retrogrades into Nova Scotia and eastern Maine as opposed to the NYC area. While such a solution is not impossible, it is less likely to verify, and especially given the lack of continuity issues and differences with its ensemble members, the GFS will continue to change over the next 1-2 days, and is expected to trend towards a storm closer to the area, with its current solutions most likely outliers.
Overall, there is much higher confidence today that there will be a retrograde (east to west movement), with Sandy expected to move NW towards the Northeast US as an intense storm. The spread for the exact landfall location remains large, however, and any point along the coast from Virginia to Boston is at risk of seeing a landfall; by the time Sandy makes landfall, it won't be purely tropical, but rather a hybrid storm, with some tropical characteristics and some extratropical characteristics. Potential impacts from Sandy, should the currently modeled scenarios verify, would be significant, with impacts including very heavy rains, strong to damaging wind gusts, and significant coastal flooding.
More information will be posted with the next update on Thursday afternoon or evening. A more in-depth analysis will be posted along with more information on the potential impacts, and the 5-Day Forecast will be updated for the entire area then as well.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Oct 23, 2012: Showers Tonight; Next Week Update
Forecast Highlights:
- Some showers expected tonight, Wednesday; light rain totals
- Temperatures start in 60s, warm up to 70s by weekend
- Update on storm potential for early next week
Cloud cover and some showers will continue through Wednesday and Thursday before a warm up during the weekend. Attention then turns to Tropical Storm Sandy, which as a non-tropical system is increasingly likely to affect the region. Click below to read the full post for the latest information.
Oct 22, 2012: Watching Early Next Week
10/23 Morning Update: A poll has been added in the right side of the blog about the possibilities for the storm. Stay tuned for brief updates in the NYC Area Weather Twitter page before the evening discussion.
Forecast Highlights:
- Some showers Tues, Weds; cooler temps
- Moderate warm up for weekend; highs back in 70s
- Uncertainty with cold front and Tropical Storm Sandy interaction for early next week
The model guidance remains split today regarding a storm early next week, with some showing a significant storm affecting the region while others show nothing of interest. Click below to read the full post for more information on this time period.
Sunday, October 21, 2012
Oct 21, 2012: Warmer Next Weekend, Then Stormy
Forecast Highlights:
- Much warmer this week; highs in 70s frequent
- Brief back door cold front brings clouds, some showers mid week
- Warmest temperatures are expected next weekend
- Changes for longer range: Analyzing a storm potential
Earlier this afternoon, I mentioned how changes in the forecast could be made for the longer range. The model guidance has been showing a significant storm affecting the region, but how likely is it that the storm unfolds this way? Click below to read the full post for more information.
Oct 21, 2012 Noon Update
3 PM: Forecast discussion will be posted after this evening's model runs come in. Tonight's discussion will focus on the possibility of a significant storm to affect the region towards the end of the month.
Update: Major changes COULD be made to the forecast based on the latest data for the end of October, starting next weekend. The pattern outlook has been delayed to Tuesday while I analyze the situation today and post more information this evening. Stay tuned.
Saturday, October 20, 2012
Oct 20, 2012: Warmer Next Week
NOTICE: Following the results of the poll about changes to the site, discussions are now posted in the new format, with highlights in the main page along with a link to the full post. A statistics page will be added by the end of the year.
Forecast Highlights:
- Warming up for first half of next week
- Some rain, briefly cooler on Weds, then warmer
- Cold front, rain likely next weekend
- Tropics: Caribbean tropical cyclone likely to form
Oct 19, 2012: Cooler Weekend, Then Warmer
Forecast Highlights:
- Cooler temps return for weekend; lows in 40s, highs in 60s
- Warming up back to 70s next week
- Colder temperatures to gradually return by end of month
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Weekend Outlook: Cooler, Drier
With mostly clear skies on Saturday night, temperatures will drop into the upper 30s to low 40s for interior north and western areas, with other parts of the area away from NYC generally dropping into the low to mid 40s. The immediate suburbs are expected to be slightly warmer, in the mid to upper 40s, with lows in NYC in the upper 40s to low 50s. Mostly sunny skies are expected again for Sunday with highs in the low to mid 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s for the rest of the area.
Next Week's Outlook: Warmer, Mostly Dry
With a strong trough stuck near the NW US, ridging is expected for the eastern half of the United States, while a trough in southeastern Canada south of a strong block east of Greenland will prevent ridging from building too far north, with the Northeast starting out cooler. Temperatures are generally expected to stay in the mid 60s to low 70s across the area, with the warmest temperatures near and SW of NYC and the coolest temperatures in the northern and NE parts of the area. Some showers are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday, especially north of NYC and in southern Connecticut.
Model solutions begin to diverge going into late next week as the GFS develops a strong low pressure in the north central US, producing a blizzard from Minnesota into southern Canada, while the ECM has a weaker cold front moving through the area in the late week, followed by rising 500mb heights and briefly warmer temperatures ahead of an arctic cold outbreak. The CMC model maintains a generally zonal flow across the county, although its long range is not very reliable. More on the longer range outlook will be discussed with Sunday's long range pattern outlook, although the potential is still there for a colder pattern to develop towards the very end of October or early November, although should this happen, the core of the cold is unlikely to end up over the region.
Friday, October 19, 2012
Oct 19, 2012 Storm Updates
8:30 AM - 10/19: The heaviest rain so far fell over Long Island and Connecticut, with radar estimates showing over 1/4 inch, but other than far NW NJ and parts of Orange County, barely any rain fell for the rest of northern NJ, SE NY and NYC. It appears that the more widespread area of heavy rain that was expected to affect the area this morning never formed; most models were consistent with some form of a heavy rain band affecting the area this morning with rain totals in the immediate NYC area above 1/2 inch. While additional showers, locally heavy, are expected until the early afternoon hours, rain totals are likely to end up lower than modeled, generally up to or less than 1/2 to 1 inch.
The latest radar posted to the left shows two area of heavy rain and thunderstorms; one is near Pennsylvania and New York, and the other is over Long Island, approaching southern Connecticut. In between, scattered showers, locally heavy, are developing over New Jersey.
Additional heavy rain and thunder is expected to develop and affect New Jersey, SE NY and NYC towards the morning hours, with most of the rain ending across the area by 12-2 PM with scattered showers lasting afterwards, especially over northern and eastern parts of the area. Highs are expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s for most of the area. Stay tuned for another update on Friday morning.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Long Range Pattern Outlook #2
**At this time, ONLY the pattern outlooks will be posted in the new proposed posting format. A decision will be made next weekend regarding the posting format of the daily discussions.**
Tonight's long range pattern outlook focuses on the second half of October, regarding the medium range pattern and the potential for October to end up cooler than average, along with some thoughts going forward into the rest of the fall and the winter. The final winter outlook will be posted towards early-mid November.
Click below to read the full post.
Oct 16, 2012: Friday Rain, Then Slightly Colder
Forecast Highlights:
- Warming up this week through Thursday
- Rain expected for Friday; slightly cooler for Saturday
- Brief warm up early next week followed by cooler temps
Tonight - Thursday: Warming Up
Following yesterday's cold front, cooler temperatures were observed today, with temperatures tonight dropping into the 30s for interior areas north and west of NYC, including southern Connecticut and colder parts of central-eastern Long Island. Following the brief cool down, a warming trend will return, with highs on Wednesday reaching the low to mid 60s across the area and highs reaching the mid to upper 60s on Thursday. Parts of the immediate NYC area may reach the low 70s, especially near NE NJ. Mostly sunny skies are expected for both days.
Friday - Saturday: Cold Front Brings Rain, Then Briefly Cooler
A strong closed low in the north central US will weaken as it moves towards the region, although it will still bring a cold front through on Friday, capable of producing locally heavy rainfall along with gusty SE winds. Highs are again expected to reach the mid 60s to low 70s across the area. Rain totals are expected to end up generally between 1/4 and 3/4 inch, with amounts locally up to or over 1 inch possible. Behind the cold front, cooler temperatures will briefly return as a weak trough moves into the region, with highs returning into the upper 50s to mid 60s for Saturday along with drier conditions.
Sunday - Early Next Week: Brief Warmth Surge
A brief surge of warmth is expected for Sunday into Tuesday, with highs warming up well into the 60s and possibly the low 70s again along with mostly sunny skies. A cold front is expected to move through the region around Tuesday with a risk of some rain, which will be followed by another trough. The intensity of this trough remains a bit uncertain, considering it's a solution the models only began showing recently, although highs are expected to return into the 50s to low, possibly mid 60s towards the middle of next week. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.
Monday, October 15, 2012
Oct 15, 2012: Rain Returns On Friday
Forecast Highlights:
- Cooler temperatures briefly return for mid week
- Rain returns Thursday night, Friday
- Cooler again for next weekend
- Warmth surge begins next Sunday-Monday
Tonight - Wednesday: Cooling Down, Drier
A trough will briefly move into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs on Tuesday reaching the low 60s inland and the low to mid 60s across the rest of the area along with a breezy NW wind. Temperatures on Wednesday will warm up into the low to mid 60s from NYC and further north/west with temps above 65 degrees in parts of the immediate NYC area, but with Long Island and southern CT mostly in the low to possibly mid 60s.
Thursday - Beyond: More Rain For Late Week
The next cold front will approach the region on Thursday night and Friday with additional rain. The exact timing of the front is still a bit uncertain although rain is expected for Friday with highs in the 60s again. Temperatures will cool down briefly during the weekend into the upper 50s to mid 60s, although a stronger surge of warmth is expected towards Sunday and early next week with highs returning into the 70s. More information on this time frame will be posted on Tuesday with the next full discussion, along with the weekly long range pattern outlook.
Sunday, October 14, 2012
10/14/12 - New Posting Schedule
Important Update
More Information: 8/26/12 Blog Statement
- No forecast update will be posted tonight (10/14). The next brief update will be posted on Monday, and the pattern outlook has been delayed to Tuesday.
Recently, the updating schedule has varied, with some time frames featuring frequent blog updates and others featuring barely any updates. In order to keep the updating schedule stable and more organized, from October 15 through December, there will be a temporary weekly posting schedule. Unless otherwise noted, the weekly schedule will be the following:
- Monday and Wednesday will have brief updates or no updates unless otherwise noted.
- Full length discussions will typically be posted on all other days: Tuesday and Thursday through Sunday.
The additional pages of the blog will occasionally be updated. While my mission remains to keep you updated on the latest in weather trends, this time period used to enhance the future of this blog will ultimately allow for better and more in-depth analysis of the weather.
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Oct 13, 2012: Warmth Briefly Returns
Tonight - Monday: Warmth Returns
Following this morning's widespread frost and freeze, with lows dropping into the 20s and 30s for most of the area, warmer temperatures will briefly make a return with a surge of warmth on Sunday and Monday, when highs are expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s, locally mid 70s in the immediate NYC area, along with mostly cloudy skies and windy conditions. Most of the rain activity will stay north of the area tonight into Sunday, with showers possible on Monday night as the cold front moves through, especially east of NYC.
Longer Range: Close To Average, More Rain Late Next Week
A weak trough will briefly move in for Tuesday and Wednesday with decreasing cloud cover as highs cool back down to the upper 50s to low 60s along with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s north and west of NYC including southern CT and colder parts of eastern/central Long Island. An amplifying, possibly negatively tilted trough will move into the region late in the week with a cold front expected to move through sometime around Friday; there are some model differences regarding this time frame, although at least some rain is expected along with warmer temperatures, back into the upper 60s range and perhaps above 70 for some, before cooling down during next weekend. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range with Sunday's update.
Friday, October 12, 2012
Oct 12, 2012: Very Cold Tonight, Freeze Expected
Forecast Highlights:
- Widespread frost/freeze tonight, lows in mid 20s-low 30s away from NYC
- Quick warm up to the 70s for Sunday-Monday; windy
- Additional rain expected with cold front, low pressure on Monday night
- Another storm late next week, then colder
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Reminder: The polls about changes to the blog format remain open through October 22. Votes will be taken into consideration when making the final decision. More information can be found here.
Tonight - Saturday: Cold, Frost And Freeze Expected
Following today's cold frontal passage, a much colder air mass moved into the region, accompanied by scattered showers and even some frozen precipitation in New England. A high pressure will provide clear skies along with temperatures aloft at 850mb dropping to -4C, setting up for the coldest night of the fall so far. Lows will drop into the mid to upper 20s for interior north/west areas, upper 20s to mid 30s for most of the north/west suburbs of NYC, southern CT, and colder parts of eastern/central Long Island, with upper 30s to low 40s in NYC and coastal areas. Mostly sunny skies are expected on Saturday with highs in the low to mid 50s inland and the mid 50s for the rest of the area.
Sunday - Tuesday: Warmer, Windy, Some Rain
As mentioned with last weekend's pattern outlook, a 500mb low entered California and will gradually move northeast through the central US this weekend, reaching the region on Sunday. The majority of the rain will stay north of the area, although scattered showers are still expected on Saturday night north of NYC, with a surge of warmth bringing temperatures into the upper 60s to low 70s across the area with mostly cloudy skies. Windy conditions are expected as well with SW winds likely gusting up to at least 30-35 mph.
The low pressure will track not far north of the Northeast US and southern Canadian border, with a cold front expected to move through on Monday resulting in some showers with highs still in the upper 60s to low 70s. The model guidance splits for Tuesday with some models quickly taking the cold front offshore, while the GFS and CMC develop another low pressure with clouds and chilly temperatures sticking around on Tuesday. At this time, I sided with an in between solution, with partly cloudy skies and colder highs, in the upper 50s to low 60s across the area, although the outlook is still subject to some changes, perhaps to show some more cloud colder and colder temperatures.
Late Next Week: Warmer, More Rain
Behind the early week storms, dry conditions will return for the middle of next week with highs generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s likely. By late Thursday and Friday, however, the next storm will move into the region. Despite lower heights near the NW US and the NE Pacific, ridging is expected in Greenland and eastern Canada, with a closed 500mb low likely developing over the north central US, affecting the region by Friday. There is still uncertainty regarding the duration of the event, ranging from the DGEX which simply shows a cold front moving through, to the GFS which has a heavier rain event and the ECM which keeps stormy conditions through the weekend. Regardless of the exact outcome, colder temperatures will return for this time frame with highs back in the 50s along with showers. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range outlook.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
**No Update Posted 10/9/12**
No update was posted tonight. Brief updates may be posted on Wednesday (10/10) about the shower event. Full updates will be resumed on Thursday, 10/11.
Reminder: Please vote in the polls to the right about proposed changes for the blog. More information can be found here.
10/11 Edit: Graphic examples of the proposed changes to the posting format have been posted below. Click on each image for a larger size.
Monday, October 8, 2012
Oct 8, 2012 Brief Update
Notice: Due to a busy schedule, October 8 through 10 will only feature brief updates. Full length discussions will be resumed on October 11th.
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Short Range: Scattered showers will continue through the overnight hours as temperatures drop into the 40s for most locations, before rising into the upper 50s to low 60s on Tuesday for highs. A cold front will move into the region on Wednesday with highs slightly warmer, mostly in the low 60s with the immediate NYC area perhaps getting near 65 degrees, with isolated evening showers north of NYC. Breezy conditions are expected for the eastern half of the area overnight as a cold front comes through.
Longer Range: Thursday and Friday will both be partly cloudy with highs generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area and overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s away from NYC. Friday night will be the coldest, with widespread lows in the 30s for interior parts of the area, expected to bottom out near the low 30s for parts of Sussex and Orange counties. Temperatures will quickly warm up by Sunday into next week, frequently reaching the 60s and low 70s, as a low pressure tracks well to the north of the region, keeping the area mostly dry on Sunday and Monday but with windy conditions expected.
Sunday, October 7, 2012
**Changes To NYC Area Weather**
This post will remain at the top of the blog for the next few days. Daily forecast discussions can be found below this post.
After nearly 1-2 years with little changes to the structure and format of this blog, there are several changes I am considering which would be implemented over the next 1-2 months, including the following:
- Changing the "Weather Alerts" to simply a "Weather Hazards" page, briefly describing weather hazards in a slightly different format
- Replacing the now-defunct "Tropics" page with a "Statistics" page, including some averages for Central Park and basic recent statistics (such as seasonal/monthly temperatures and precpitation means, anomalies, extremes, ect.), especially focusing on Central Park but with data for other parts of the area as well
- Changing the format of the daily discussions with a brief highlight/summary of the forecast on the main page, along with a link to the full forecast discussion. This would limit the main page to only forecast highlights rather than numerous full length discussions. (More on this below).
- Changing the design of the website; more on this will be posted later this month
In addition to the above, additional smaller changes will be made, such as the recent addition of a Long Range Pattern Outlook section in the daily discussions, in which I discuss the long range pattern once or twice a week. I opened up polls for some of these changes; the polls will be closed 2 weeks from now. The poll results will be taken into consideration when making the final decisions.
*For the third statement, there are two examples below this post. The October 6th discussion is in the current posting format, while the October 7th discussion has been posted in the new experimental format (ONLY the 10/7 post has been posted this way for experimental purposes - posts from 10/8 and onward will remain in the current posting format). After looking up these examples, please vote in the appropriate poll for which format you would prefer to see in the main page.
Oct 7, 2012: Cool Pattern Continues This Week
This update has been posted in an experimental format.
Should this be the new discussion format, some changes will be made, including
the forecast graphic posted with the overview. For more information, click here.
Forecast Highlights:
- Chilly temps tonight, slow warm up through Wednesday
- Some showers expected Monday night and Wednesday evening
- Gradual cool down for late week, frost possible Saturday
- Next storm to affect area on Sunday, next Monday
Oct 6, 2012: Frost Possible Next Weekend
Forecast Highlights:
- Showers on Sunday afternoon through night hours
- Cool down in early week followed by mid-week warm up, showers
- Stronger cold likely next weekend; frost possible
- Long Range Pattern Outlook #1 Issued Tonight
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Blog Announcement:
Starting with tonight's update, a discussion on the long range pattern outlook will be posted once or twice a week, typically on weekends, covering the current pattern, the expected pattern going at least 1-2 weeks out, and occasionally including some thoughts on the longer range, such as the upcoming winter.
As these pattern outlooks are issued weekly, minor revisions may occasionally be made.
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Tonight - Monday: Showers, Then Cold
Cooler temperatures returned to the area behind a cold front earlier in the day that pushed out the warm air mass, with temperatures in Sussex falling nearly 9 degrees in an hour this afternoon. Temperatures will continue to slowly drop tonight in the area, reaching the low 40s inland and the mid to upper 40s for the rest of the area with slightly warmer temperatures in NYC, in the low 50s.
A weak low pressure will develop and affect the region with light rain and chilly temperatures on Sunday. Highs will peak towards noon in the mid 50s inland, mid to upper 50s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 50s to low 60s in Long Island and southern CT. Showers will develop in the afternoon hours, mainly after 12-4 PM, with dropping temperatures. The showers should last through the mid overnight hours, towards at least 12-2 AM, with clearing skies afterwards and lows dropping into the mid to upper 30s inland and the low to mid 40s for the rest of the area, except for Long Island, NYC and parts of SE CT in the mid to upper 40s. At least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is expected, slightly lower for some areas especially further north/west. Partly sunny skies are expected on Monday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s across the area.
Tuesday - Saturday: Warmer, Some Showers, Then Cold
Temperatures on Monday night will be slightly warmer than those of Sunday night, with partly sunny skies likely again on Tuesday. The NAM develops a low pressure offshore with widespread clouds and showers on Tuesday into Wednesday, although it is an outlier solution compared to the rest of the model guidance; I slightly increased cloud cover and temperatures with tonight's 5-Day Forecast, but not to the extent of the NAM, especially given its typically lower performance approaching its hour 84 range. Partly cloudy skies are likely again on Tuesday with highs generally in the upper 50s to low 60s inland and the low to possibly mid 60s across the rest of the area. More cloud cover is likely especially for eastern areas, with a risk of isolated showers.
A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday night as a strong shortwave moves through the region. Some showers are expected with the cold front, especially north and west of NYC, with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s across most of the area. Temperatures overnight behind the cold front will drop into the 40s for most of the area with upper 30s to low 40s inland and low 50s in NYC and parts of Long Island. A cooler air mass will briefly move in but will once again lift out quickly ahead of another shortwave approaching the region, with Thursday's temperatures reaching the upper 50s to low 60s across the area. The next shortwave will move through on Friday, although the frontal passage is expected to be dry with partly cloudy skies on Friday and highs similar to those of Thursday, perhaps slightly warmer.
A stronger cold air mass will enter the region behind Friday's shortwave, with the coldest temperatures of the fall so far expected. With a high pressure moving overhead, clear skies, and 850mb temperatures near or slightly below 0 degrees Celsius, widespread lows in the 30s are likely away from NYC, with low 30s possible for interior parts of the area. The exact temperature outlook may be subject to slight changes although there is an increasing probability that the first widespread frost event of the fall may take place on Saturday morning. Highs for Saturday are expected to be in the 50s.
Pattern Outlook Archive
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Pattern Outlook #1 - October 6, 2012
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Long Range Pattern Outlook
Slightly revised 10/7/12
Tonight's long range pattern outlook will focus on the collapse of the strong block off the western North American coast and the implications it will have on the US pattern in the medium range.
By the late week, changes will be taking place in the pattern. The block will collapse as lower heights return to Alaska and a less amplified pattern develops in North America, accompanied by a spike in the EPO from strongly negative to moderately positive. With the more zonal Canadian flow, the trough over the region will lift out, shifting into eastern Canada, with a ridge building in. Meanwhile, with the collapsing block, the upper level low trapped to its south will gradually move east into the western US, then through the rest of the country, approaching the region. While at this time, it does not appear that there will be a persistent polar vortex over Alaska with a very progressive pattern across North America as we have seen last year, this change in the pattern is still less favorable for persistent chilly conditions in the eastern half of the US.
[slightly revised 10/9] As a result of the changes, temperatures will warm up in the region on Sunday into early next week, returning into the 60s. With the low pressure tracking through the central US towards the region, the area is expected to be near or within the warm sector of this low pressure, with a rain event expected between late Sunday into Monday, perhaps Tuesday if the low ends up slower. The latest model guidance also suggests this low may result in a potential for severe weather in the central US. While the pattern will not be a colder than average one one, it does not have the makings of a significantly warmer pattern either at least for the first half of next week, with the early week low pressure which is expected to be followed by at least slightly cooler temperatures for the middle of next week, keeping the region under near to above average temperatures while delaying any significant warm up slightly. Behind the early week storm and cool air, however, there may be a higher probability for a period of warmer temperatures going into the beginning of the last third of the month. Going further into the long range, the EPO is modeled to trend towards neutral after peaking next week; a lot can still change from now until then, although the possibility may be there for a cooler ending to October. At this time, October is still likely to end up with near average temperatures, slightly on the positive side, although the full extent of the slightly warmer pattern and the late October outlook are still uncertain, and leave a possibility, although not a high one at this time, that October may end up cooler than average. More will be posted on that with the next long range update.
The next long range pattern discussion will be posted next weekend, with an update on the pattern outlook for next week and some thoughts going forward into November and the winter.
Saturday, October 6, 2012
Oct 5, 2012: Rain Returns This Weekend
Forecast Highlights:
- Cold front comes through Saturday, chilly rain on Sunday
- Colder start to week, frost possible inland
- Brief warm up towards mid next week with showers possible
- Another cool down expected by late next week
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The 5-Day Forecast has been updated for the area tonight.
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Weekend Outlook: Warm, Then Cold and Rainy
A cold front currently entering the region will move through the area during the late afternoon and evening hours on Saturday, bringing a much colder air mass behind it. Another warm day is expected ahead of the cold front with temperatures rising into the low to mid 70s inland and the mid to upper 70s across the rest of the area. Parts of NE NJ may reach and/or slightly pass 80 degrees. Breezy winds are expected, starting from the SW and turning west as the cold front comes through. Most of the shower activity is expected to dissipate before reaching the area, although scattered showers are still possible by the late afternoon and evening hours especially north and west of NYC.
Some locations will experience a relatively sharp drop in temperatures following the front in the late afternoon and evening, especially towards NW NJ/SE NY and the Hudson Valley, where temperatures should drop from the low 70s to the 50s, then gradually cooling overnight to reach the upper 30s to low 40s. The rest of the area should see more of a gradual drop in temperatures, eventually dropping into the mid to upper 40s for most locations with upper 40s to low 50s in NYC.
A weak coastal low will develop along the cold front and quickly move northeast, setting up for a chilly rain event on Sunday into Sunday night. The model guidance has trended drier with this wave, with at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch expected. Most of the showers are expected after the late morning/early afternoon hours through the rest of the day into the early overnight hours. Temperatures will peak early in the day, reaching the low to mid 50s inland and the mid to upper 50s across the rest of the area. Parts of Long Island may reach the low 60s before the rain begins. The showers will last through the early overnight hours, towards 10 PM-1 AM, with overnight lows dropping into the mid to upper 30s inland and the low to mid 40s for the rest of the area except for NYC, in the mid to upper 40s.
Next Week: Cold, Warmer, Then Colder
The current pattern will continue through the majority of next week with a persistent trough over Canada and a strong block off the coast of the western US keeping the central and eastern US generally colder than average. Chilly temperatures will stick through Monday, with highs in the mid 50s inland and the upper 50s to low 60s across the rest of the area. Drier conditions are expected with partly sunny skies. Cold overnight lows are expected again, similar to those of Sunday night although perhaps a degree or two warmer. Heights will rise on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a shortwave moving towards the Great Lakes, with highs returning into the low to mid 60s on Tuesday and the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday.
A cold front will move through the region on Wednesday, producing some showers followed by another round of cold temperatures. Temperatures on Thursday are expected to cool back down into the upper 50s to low 60s for most of the area, with mid 60s possible in the immediate NYC area, although at this time it appears that the coldest temperatures will come down behind another shortwave on Friday. The GFS and ECM especially show a strong blast of cold air, with temperatures dropping into the 20s for lows across the Northeast with widespread 30s across the area. While these two models may be a bit overdone with the intensity of the cold, which is a typical bias this far out, this time frame will be watched for the potential of the first widespread frost event of the fall.
Long Range Update: Warming Up
A strong rex block feature off the western US coast will begin to break down by late next week as lower heights return to Alaska and the pattern becomes less amplified. Following the late week to early weekend cool spell, a moderation in the current pattern is expected with the eastern half of the US warming up, although New England should continue to see chilly temperatures. There is uncertainty regarding the duration and extent of this warmer pattern, although this warmer period, along with exactly how cold next week turns out to be and what happens by the end of the month, should ultimately determine whether October ends up warmer or cooler than average.
Friday, October 5, 2012
Oct 4, 2012: Chilly Rain Expected Sunday
Forecast Highlights
- Sunshine briefly returns on Friday; highs in 70s
- Clouds, rain, colder temperatures this weekend
- Cold, warm, then chilly again next week
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Tonight - Weekend: Briefly Warm, Then Cloudy, Chilly, Rainy
Mostly sunny skies will briefly make a return on Friday with above average temperatures expected, peaking in the mid 70s to lower 80s across most of the area, slightly cooler towards coastal areas with the warmest temperatures near NE NJ. The break from the persistent clouds and showers will only be brief, however, as a strong cold front approaches the region on Saturday with a stronger cold air mass behind it. Prior to the passage of the cold front towards Saturday evening, temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 70s for most of the area, slightly cooler in far western and eastern areas with highs in the low to possibly mid 70s. The cold front will move through the area during the afternoon to evening hours; while most of the shower activity is expected to dry up before reaching the area, at least a period of light to locally moderate showers is likely around the same time period. The cold front will be followed by a noticeable temperature drop into the 50s and low 60s, dropping overnight into the 40s away from NYC, perhaps the upper 30s in interior northern areas.
A coastal low pressure will develop along the cold front on Sunday, affecting the area with cloudy skies and showers. The model guidance has not settled on a single solution for this storm yet; extremes range from the 0z ECMWF, which showed a stronger low pressure producing moderate to heavy rain with high elevation snows in the Northeast, while the GFS has a weak low pressure with only light rain for the area. Regardless of the exact outcome, rain is expected to fall, although the intensity remains uncertain. Showers are expected throughout the day on Sunday, especially after the late morning hours, with high temperatures likely peaking in the morning hours in the low 50s inland, mid to possibly upper 50s in the immediate NYC area, and upper 50s to possibly low 60s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. Temperatures will then drop into at least the upper 40s to low 50s from NYC and further north/west as the showers develop, with the showers expected to end towards the early overnight hours as temperatures drop into the upper 30s inland and the 40s for the rest of the area. The storm will not be a significant rain producer, with at least 1/2 inch, perhaps a little lower/higher for some areas, likely.
While several models show temperatures at 850mb to end up near or below zero degrees Celsius, which during the winter time is typically used to determine the rain/snow line, there will not be any snow associated with this storm in the area. The low pressure is weak and there is not much heavy precipitation associated with the low, with a warm boundary layer expected which will prevent this from producing snow. Especially if the storm ends up further north/west closer to what the ECMWF shows, however, a few back end flakes would not be out of the question for the higher elevations of the Northeast.
Next Week: Cold, Warmer, Then Cold Again
Behind the wave of low pressure, the cold air mass will move into the region, with highs on Monday only in the mid to upper 50s inland and the upper 50s to low 60s across the rest of the area. Cold overnight lows are expected again with clear skies, likely dropping into the mid 30s inland and the upper 30s to mid 40s for the rest of the area except for NYC, in the upper 40s.
As the ridge off the coast of the western US amplifies, a frequent feature of this fall's pattern, yet another trough will drop into the central US with a low pressure developing near the Great Lakes region. As a result, the cool air mass will move out of the region with a short warm up ahead of the next cold front on Wednesday. Highs are expected to warm back up into the 60s, with showers likely from the cold front on Wednesday. Behind the cold front, another cool air mass will enter the region, although the western US ridge will become less amplified as the strong -EPO and moderately positive PNA moderate. Cool temperatures are expected to stick around through late next week, perhaps next weekend, and although it does not appear that a persistently warm pattern should develop, a moderation in the current pattern is likely for the longer range. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range outlook.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Oct 3, 2012: Warmth Persists Through Friday
Forecast Highlights:
- Warmth sticks around through Friday
- Clouds/showers return Thurs; brief clearing on Friday
- Weekend: much cooler, cloudy with some rain
- Chilly start to next week, then warmer
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After several days of technical difficulties, updates to the blog will continue starting tonight. The Long Range Forecasts page has been updated with the October outlook, and the 5-Day Forecast will be updated on Thursday.
Additionally, I am working on updating the brief daily weather summaries as the last update was in early September. Throughout the next 1-2 weeks, daily weather summaries will be added in each day's respective post, or the following day(s) if there was no update on a specific day.
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Tonight - Friday: Mild, Some Rain
Little drop in temperatures is expected tonight with a humid air mass still in place. Scattered showers are expected on Thursday, locally heavy north/west of NYC; highs are generally expected to peak in the low to mid 70s inland, mid to possibly upper 70s in the immediate NYC area, and in the upper 60s to mid 70s in Long Island and southern CT.
A drier SW flow will briefly return on Friday with more sunshine expected, although this break from the cloudy and rainy pattern will only be brief. Highs are expected to be slightly warmer than those of Thursday, reaching the mid to upper 70s from NYC and further north/west, perhaps reaching the low 80s in parts of NE NJ, with low to mid 70s, locally upper 70s, in Long Island and southern CT.
Weekend Outlook: Cloudy, Colder, Some Rain
The last day under this mild air mass will be on Saturday as a cold front will slowly move through the region. A strong rex block is currently present off the coast of the western US and is expected to remain in place through the medium range, with a strong trough currently dropping into the north central US, producing a significant early season snowstorm in North Dakota and Minnesota. The large trough will gradually move into the region over the weekend, with the cooler temperatures moving east. Highs on Saturday are slightly uncertain and depend on the exact timing of the cold front; the GFS supports highs in the low 70s while the latest NAM run has nearly 80 degrees in NYC. At this time, I am siding with a solution slightly faster than the NAM, with highs in the low 70s inland, mid to upper 70s in the immediate NYC area, and the mid 70s across most of Long Island/S CT, slightly warmer/cooler in some spots. Showers will approach from Pennsylvania associated with the cold front, although most of these showers should dissipate before reaching the area. Regardless, at least a period of light to perhaps locally moderate showers is possible, if not likely around Saturday noon/evening, especially north/west of NYC.
The cold front will be slow to move east of the area, and on Sunday, a weak wave of low pressure will move along the front near or off the coast, producing clouds and a cold rain for parts of the region. There are some model differences with the location and intensity of the wave, as although most of the model guidance shows the wave affecting the area with a cold rain, the latest GFS run keeps the wave southeast of the area, continuing a southeast trend on the GFS. The high temperatures on Sunday depend on the timing and location of the storm; the models are split into two camps, with the GFS and the ECM bringing in the rain by the morning/afternoon with highs only in the upper 40s to mid 50s from NYC and further north/west and warmer further east. The CMC and NAM are slower with the storm, delaying the rain until later in the day, allowing temperatures to warm up well into the 50s and the low 60s for some before the rain arrives and temperatures drop into the 40s overnight. Given that the CMC has not had a good handle on this storm until now and considering the NAM's occasional slow bias, I sided towards a solution slightly faster than these two models, with showers likely on Sunday with highs likely in the mid to upper 50s across most of the area, perhaps cooler in western areas. This will not be a significant rain producer, and generally around 1/2 inch of rain is possible, perhaps a bit more or less. There is still some uncertainty with the storm, however, and it is a possibility that the wave mostly misses the area, with warmer temperatures, or could end up stronger than currently expected. Stay tuned for more information on the weekend outlook.
Next Week: Chilly Start, Then Warmer
Behind the wave of low pressure, the cold air mass from the west will struggle to fully move into the region, although it will still produce below average temperatures. Monday will be the coldest day with highs likely in the mid 50s inland and the upper 50s across the rest of the area, perhaps reaching 60 degrees in the immediate NYC area. Widespread cold temperatures are expected on Monday night, with lows dropping into the mid 30s inland and the upper 30s to mid 40s across the rest of the area with upper 40s to low 50s in NYC.
As previously mentioned, the cold air mass will struggle to move into the region, and will lift out by the middle of next week as a SW flow briefly returns. Highs will warm back up into the 60s by Tuesday and Wednesday, with another cold front likely to move into the region by Wednesday with rain possible. By then, the pattern will become slightly less amplified as the strong block off the western US coast weakens. Another trough looks to move into the region with cooler temperatures towards the second half of next week; for the medium range, through perhaps the time frame around next weekend, a trough could remain over the region; uncertainty increases beyond this time frame due to the time range, although I would not be surprised to see a warmer pattern, although not nearly to the extent of last year's warm pattern, beyond that time frame. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.
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