April 30, 2012: Warmth Briefly To Return

Forecast Highlights:


- Some rain tonight, up to 1/2 inch
- Temperatures surge to 75-80 degrees west of NYC tomorrow
- Mild, mostly cloudy, few showers conditions linger through Saturday


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Mainly sunny skies were observed earlier today, with increasing clouds as a low pressure began to approach the region. Temperatures were once again below average, making this recent week the longest stretch of below average temperatures observed throughout the entire season; the previous longest consecutive stretch of below average temperatures was 7 days in late October into early November.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Light to moderate rain will affect the area tonight into tomorrow, ending up locally heavy tomorrow morning, with at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain expected for most places. The rain will end by at least 12 PM from NYC and further west and by 2 PM for Long Island/southern CT. Winds will start out from the SE, but switch towards the WNW/NW by the second half of the day.

Cloud cover is expected to clear from NYC and further north/west around at least 2-3 PM. With the warm air mass, clearing cloud cover, and WNW/NW winds, temperatures are expected to surge into the 70s in northern NJ, SE NY, NYC and western Long Island, perhaps getting into the upper 70s near NE NJ. For the temperature outlook, I sided close to the warmest models, although given the trends it is possible that the area may end up slightly warmer than expected. The temperature outlook gets more tricky going north and east of NYC, however, where the latest models continue to differ by as much as 10 degrees. I am siding with the slightly warmer solutions for tonight's forecast, with 60s for most of Long Island and southern/western CT, with upper 50s in eastern Long Island and eastern parts of Connecticut. The NAM model has been hinting at isolated thunderstorm development tomorrow evening in northern NJ; while this solution has little support from the other models, an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out west of NYC.


Forecast Overview:


With a back door cold front moving through New England and the area on Tuesday night, a cooler air mass will move in, keeping the area closer to average temperatures while southern parts of the region observe much warmer temperatures. Mostly to partly cloudy skies are expected on Wednesday and Thursday with highs generally in the lower to mid 60s from NYC and further north/west, getting into the upper 60s further west, and in the mid 50s to lower 60s for most of Long Island and southern CT. Thursday currently appears to be slightly cooler than Wednesday.

A warm surge is modeled to move through on Friday and Saturday, resulting in warmer temperatures especially west of NYC, although the extent of the warmth is still slightly uncertain and depends partially on the location of a cutoff low southeast of Newfoundland. At this time, I sided closer to the cooler models, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further north/west with highs in the 60s and 70s further east, although the outlook is still subject to change. Should the area enter the warm sector, scattered thunderstorms may be possible as well. The longer range is more uncertain, although temperatures are likely to cool down going into next week.