April 1, 2012: Dry Conditions Return Again

Forecast Highlights:


- Dry week expected; next widespread rain potential around 4/9
- Average temperatures continue, highs in 50s and 60s


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After the storm two nights ago and yesterday's chilly temperatures, with highs only ending up in the 40s across the area, March ended up as the 2nd warmest March on record in NYC; the storm on the night of 3/30 increased the rain totals across the area, and this year's March was the 4th driest March on record with 0.96 inch of rain; the driest March was 2006 with 0.80 inch. Slightly warmer temperatures were observed today, reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s across the area, although today's temperatures were still colder than average.

The latest radar posted above shows that the round of moderate rain that affected the area this evening has moved to the south and east; other than a few showers, the rain is over for tonight, marking the start of another week of dry conditions. As temporary blocking near Greenland continues to keep a chilly air mass stuck over the Northeast, the warm spells and stormy weather affecting the central US will still be suppressed south of the area, keeping NYC with seasonable temperatures and dry conditions this week; the next chance of rain is not until at least 4/9, which will be accompanied by a brief warm surge.


Tomorrow's Outlook


As the current warm spell in the Midwest shifts further east, it will be forced south as another back door cold front approaches the region. As a result, temperatures will warm up tomorrow, reaching the lower to mid 50s across the area with some upper 50s near NYC, which is close to the average for this time of the year. Partly sunny skies are expected along with breezy conditions, with N/NNW winds gusting up to 35-40 mph.


Tuesday - Beyond: Back To Seasonable, Dry Pattern


There is not much to say about the mid to late week time frame other than that seasonable and dry conditions will continue. Tuesday and Wednesday will slightly warm up with partly cloudy skies, reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area with parts of NE NJ getting close to 65 degrees. Isolated showers are possible on Tuesday night but most places will stay dry. Another trough will move in on Wednesday and will remain stuck over the region through at least Saturday, with temperatures in the late week through Saturday reaching the mid to upper 50s across the area with lower 60s near NYC on Friday and Saturday. Mostly to partly sunny skies are expected for the late week and Saturday.

Going into Sunday and early next week, most models bring in a short lasting warm surge. Unlike the last time this was modeled, which was for Monday when most models had a strong warm surge which due to the strong back door cold front will not reach the area, the pattern for Sunday and Monday does not appear to support a back door cold front coming through, and with a high pressure dropping through the region, at least a 1-2 day period of SW/SSW winds is possible, which will likely result in a 1-2 day warm surge for the region. Temperatures in this time frame are expected to return into the mid to upper 60s especially north/west of NYC, and depending on the timing of any approaching cold front towards the early week, temperatures may reach the 70s in parts of the area. There is more uncertainty regarding the potential for a cold front to approach, although at this time it does not appear that any moderate-heavy rain should fall out of the potential cold front.