April 17, 2012: Heavy Rain May Return

Forecast Highlights:


- Mild, dry through Saturday
- Next storm to approach for weekend, early week
- First significant rain since winter possible


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A cold front moved through the area last night, with temperatures quickly rising this morning to the low 70s in parts of the area. Temperatures ended up peaking in the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to lower 80s across the rest of the area. Temperatures will cool down for the rest of the week, dropping into the 60s tomorrow and the 60s and 70s through Saturday, although the dry conditions will not last for long, as what may be the first significant rain event since the winter months will affect the area on the weekend into early next week.


Wednesday - Friday: Dry, Mild


Mostly sunny skies are expected to continue tomorrow with light winds. High temperatures will reach the lower to mid 60s across the area. Mostly to partly sunny skies will continue through Friday with temperatures slowly warming up; Thursday is expected to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area, with the warmest temperatures in the lower 70s in the immediate NYC area. Friday will be slightly warmer west of NYC and cooler east of NYC.


Saturday - Early Next Week: Heavier Rain Possible


As a cold front slowly approaches the area on Saturday, clouds will increase to mostly cloudy with scattered showers possible. Temperatures are uncertain depending on the location of the front, although with onshore winds, temperatures are expected to generally end up in the mid 60s to low 70s but are still subject to change. The warmest temperatures should stay away from coastal areas.

Meanwhile, a low pressure in the southern US will approach the eastern coast, with larger differences in the models regarding the interaction between the southern and northern streams. Some models, such as some of today's GFS runs and the 12z ECM, show less interaction, with occasional periods of rain amounting close to 1 inch, locally higher. The CMC and the afternoon GFS run, meanwhile, showed more interaction, with a strong low pressure moving up the coast, resulting in wind and heavy rain easily adding up to several inches, which would noticeably ease the drought. There are too many differences to nail down one specific scenario, although at this time I am thinking that the low pressure does come up the coast but does not end up as strong and amplified as some models show, with the potential for as much as 1 or more inch of rain for at least parts of the area. The timing of the rain is also uncertain, although it appears that most of the rain should be focused around Sunday, possibly into Monday. Stay tuned for more information on this storm and the forecast rain.