Oct 19, 2011: Seasonable Temperatures Return

A low pressure system that has been quite difficult to predict finally reached the region today, bringing widespread rain. The model guidance did not handle the storm very well; four days ago, the storm was modeled to stay east of the region, and instead the storm is currently stalled over western Ohio. In addition to the low pressure uncertainty, rainfall amounts were lower than expected, ending up around 1/2 to 3/4 inch from NYC and further west, and generally between 1/4 and 1/2 inch in Long Island and southern Connecticut. Last night, I went with the lower end of the model guidance for the rain amounts, but even that was too high, as the heaviest rain only fell during the morning and did not last through the early-mid afternoon hours as first thought.

Today brought chilly high temperatures due to the rain, with high temperatures so far reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s from NYC and further west, and the lower to mid 60s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. These will not be the warmest temperatures today, however, as the warm front currently moving towards the area will bring a short spike in temperatures after 12-2 AM tonight, with temperatures surging into the mid to upper 60s across the area. Once the occluded front moves through, temperatures will drop again towards the early morning.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring drier conditions into the area as the cold front moves through, with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected with a breezy SW wind, gusting up to 20-30 mph across the area. The air mass will gradually cool down, but with more sunshine and SW winds in place, in contrast with today's rain and onshore wind, temperatures will be warmer, reaching the lower to mid 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s across the rest of the area.

Friday - Sunday: Slightly Colder Than Average

Behind the cold front, the cold air mass will be slow to move in, and will not reach the region at its peak intensity. As with most of this fall's cool spells, the coldest temperatures will stay to the west of the area, with chilly but not significantly below average temperatures. Saturday and Sunday will bring high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland and the lower to mid 60s across the rest of the area, which is near to slightly colder than average for this time of the year. The coldest temperatures are expected on Saturday night, when lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s in NW NJ and SE NY, with lower 40s across the rest of the area except for NYC, where mid to upper 40s are expected for lows.


Next Week Brief Outlook


A weak area of low pressure is expected to approach the region on Monday, which will bring increased cloud cover on Sunday and slightly warmer temperatures on Monday, reaching the mid 60s in the immediate NYC area and the lower to mid 60s across the rest of the area. Scattered showers are expected with mostly cloudy skies, but no widespread moderate rain is expected. Behind this storm, cloud cover will slightly clear on Tuesday with temperatures similar to, if not slightly cooler than those of Monday, but a brief warm up is expected around the middle of next week, more likely towards Wednesday-Thursday though the timing is still a little uncertain. During this time frame, parts of the area may pass the 70 degree mark in the warmer case scenario, although well above average temperatures are not expected.

Longer Range: Behind a potential storm towards the ends of next week which may bring rain into the region, colder temperatures are likely to return, and the potential may be there for slightly below average temperatures towards the end of October, but the pattern we are in does not support sustained cold spells across the region, and this cold spell potential appears to be no exception to the pattern. Unless we see a pattern change, temperatures will likely end up close the average through early November, with occasional cool spells but with the coldest departures likely focusing to the west of the region. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.