Oct 10, 2011 Brief Update

Note: Due to issues with internet connection, only parts of the blog were updated tonight. A full update will be posted tomorrow night.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area as a low pressure begins to move up the coast from the Southeast. With more cloud cover, colder temperatures aloft with 850 mb temperatures near 12 degrees celsius, and an east wind expected, temperatures will be colder across the area, peaking in the lower to mid 70s from NYC and further west, and the upper 60s to lower 70s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.


Wednesday - Friday: Rain Returns


As a low pressure from the south moves up the coast, cloudy skies are expected for Wednesday with showers spreading from the south. Rain is expected to begin around the late morning or early afternoon hours, with moderate to locally heavy rain falling between the evening and the overnight hours, ending by at least 2 AM, with a total of at least 1/2 to 1 inch, locally up to 1.5-2 inches. Due to the cloud cover and rain, temperatures will be chilly, peaking in the upper 50s west of NYC and in the lower 60s from NYC and further east. As the low pressure passes over the area, bringing a slightly warmer air mass, temperatures will slightly warm up overnight, with overnight temperatures steady in the lower to mid 60s across the area.

Thursday will bring mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with occasional showers with temperatures reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of the area. Cloudy skies are expected again on Thursday night as a cold front approaches the area, with showers and potentially thunderstorms expected between early Friday morning and the early afternoon hours. Cloud cover will begin to clear by Friday evening with increasing winds and high temperatures similar to those of Thursday.


Weekend - Next Week: Colder, Then Warming Up


Colder temperatures are expected for this weekend as a trough moves in behind the cold front on Friday. With a tight pressure gradient, windy conditions are expected for Friday night and Saturday, with the potential for winds to gust above 30 mph. High temperatures will be colder on Saturday, reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area, with overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the area. Temperatures will slightly warm up on Sunday as the trough weakens.

Another ridge is expected to spread in from the west around early next week, bringing warmer temperatures once again, and while the latest models are showing that this air mass will also be warm, this ridge will not extend as far north as the current one did, and temperatures are unlikely to surge well into the 80s again. The north end of the warmth is uncertain at this time, with solutions ranging from the GFS model keeping the area near the northern edge of the warmth, to the ECMWF and CMC with much warmer temperatures returning. At this time, I went with a solution in between, expecting temperatures to return into the 70s but not to exceed the 80 degree mark across the area. Tomorrow's update will discuss the outlook for next week in more details.