Oct 12, 2011: Stormy Friday, Colder Weekend

As a broad area of low pressure slowly moved up the coast today, cloudy skies were observed across the NYC area along with some light rain showers. High temperatures were colder than they have been recently, only reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area, which is colder than the average for this time of the year. The rain forecast for today, however, ended up busting too high. This low pressure was never a solid organized one, and there was uncertainty with the location and intensity of the rain, as mentioned with last night's update. Even though I slightly lowered my rain forecast, the forecast was still too high, as there were only scattered showers across the area today with less than 1/4 inch. Even though additional rain is expected tonight, only up to another 1/4 inch is expected.

Even though the rain forecast today failed, the expected heavy rain for Friday is a more likely scenario, considering that unlike today's unorganized low pressure system, Friday will bring a strong cold front through, associated with a much stronger low pressure, and even though the heavy rain is not expected to cover the entire area, heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to affect at least parts of the area. Colder temperatures will move in for the weekend behind the cold front for the weekend, with highs returning into the 60s for a longer period of time starting on Saturday. Dry conditions will continue through next week, but there are signs that a more significant storm could affect the region later next week.


Thursday - Friday: Rain Returns, Thunderstorms Possible


Tomorrow will bring mostly cloudy to cloudy skies across the area with scattered showers. Warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow, reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of the area with lower to mid 70s in the immediate NYC area.

By Friday, as previously mentioned, a stronger low pressure will develop near the Great Lakes, and a stronger cold front will approach the area. With negative lift index values and bulk shear up to 50 knots, the potential is there for a line of heavy thunderstorms to move through in the late afternoon and evening hours, bringing the potential for gusty winds. Similar high temperatures to those of Thursday are expected on Friday, but may be a degree or two warmer in the western half of the area. Stay tuned for more information on Friday's potential thunderstorm event.


Next Weekend - Next Week: Colder Pattern Develops


Even though no significant cold is expected behind Friday's cold front, a colder pattern will develop, with temperatures dropping back to the average for this time of the year. High temperatures on Saturday are expected to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s inland and the lower to mid 60s across the rest of the area. Breezy conditions are expected as well, with winds potentially gusting up to 30-40 mph in parts of the area. Low temperatures will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area, with lower to mid 50s in NYC. A weak cold front will move through on Sunday night, bringing the risk of an isolated shower but no significant rainfall. Temperatures on Sunday through Tuesday will remain similar to those of Saturday, in the lower to mid 60s across the area, but warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday night due to the cold front approaching.

By the middle of next week, the models are converging on a stronger storm solution, where a primary low pressure moves towards the Great Lakes with a secondary low pressure developing further east, closer to the coast. Some changes are expected with this scenario as this is still in the medium range, but the overall idea is there that a moderate to potentially heavy rain event may be possible for Wednesday and Thursday next week. Behind this storm, a colder air mass is expected to move in from Canada, and while this cold air mass is not expected to be very strong, it has the potential to bring below average temperatures across the region for next weekend. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.