Oct 18, 2011: Rain Tomorrow, Drier End To Week

Today brought conditions similar to those of the last few days once again across the NYC area, with partly sunny skies observed along with high temperatures reaching the upper 60s across the area and a few lower 70s in NE NJ. A storm currently in the Southeast will move up the coast, bringing widespread rain across the area for tomorrow, which will be followed by colder yet seasonable temperatures for the end of this week into the weekend.


Wednesday - Thursday: Storm Expected

The latest forecast remains mostly the same from last night, though the rain forecast has been slightly lowered. Rain is expected to enter the area between 3-6 AM, with steady rain for the morning into the afternoon hours. The heaviest rain is expected to be in Long Island/S CT, with lighter amounts to the west of NYC. Temperatures will remain chilly during the day, in the upper 50s to lower 60s from NYC and further west, and the lower to mid 60s in Long Island/S CT. By the evening, the rain will become lighter and more scattered as the low pressure moves into Ohio, with temperatures first staying steady, then gradually warming up overnight into the lower to mid 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s across the rest of the area during the overnight hours. The scattered showers are expected to end by 2-4 AM, with partly to mostly cloudy skies for Thursday and highs in the lower to mid 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s across the rest of the area.

When the storm ends, at least 1/2 to 1 inch of rain is expected to fall from NYC and further west, with 1 to 2 inches in Long Island and southern CT. Rain amounts may be locally higher, potentially reaching 1.5" in parts of the immediate NYC area and slightly over 2 inches in Long Island/S CT. Stay tuned for storm updates tomorrow afternoon and evening on this storm.


Friday - Sunday: Seasonable Temperatures Return

The low pressure moving into the Ohio Valley will cut off the source of cold air, meaning that temperatures will fail to significantly cool down in the area. High temperatures are expected to end up in the upper 50s to lower 60s across most of the area on Friday, with lower to mid 60s for Saturday and Sunday across the area. Overnight lows on Friday night will stay in the 40s across the area, but on Saturday night, with less cloud cover and 850 mb temperatures near 2-4 degrees celsius, low temperatures are expected to drop into the 30s inland, with the immediate north/west suburbs of NYC getting into the lower 40s and New York City itself reaching the mid to upper 40s. These temperatures are near the average for this time of the year.


Longer Range: Warming Up, Then Cooling Down Again

For Sunday into early-mid next week, a weak warm up is expected. Temperatures are not expected to end up well above average again, but above average temperatures are likely, potentially rising back into the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area during this time frame. Towards the end of next week, by the 26-28th, however, an arctic air mass is expected to begin dropping into central Canada, and although the pattern is not supportive for any sustained cold, the potential is there for a storm to affect the region late next week, followed by a brief yet strong cold spell for the last few days of October. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.