June 28, 2011 Noon Update

5:20 PM: As a cold front is currently approaching the area from the west, storms are starting to form across the Northeast, however it now appears that most of these storms will miss the area. The latest radar, posted to the left, only shows activity over New York and Virginia, with little activity in Pennsylvania. Almost every short range model keeps storms today to the north and south of the area as well while focusing today's activity over Virginia and New York.

Scattered storms are possible tonight especially to the north and west of NYC in the early overnight hours, around 8 PM to 12 AM, but the best risk of storms will stay to the north of the area, and parts of the NYC tri-state area may not see any rain tonight.


Tropics: Tropical Depression About To Form


When Hurricane Beatriz was still active, I mentioned the potential for tropical activity to increase in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico regions around late June. We are currently seeing a tropical wave in the southern Gulf of Mexico, Invest 95L, which is organizing itself while moving WNW, and the National Hurricane Center is currently giving this a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression. With the relatively favorable environment surrounding Invest 95L, further development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight. 95L has a limited time to intensify before it makes landfall in Mexico tomorrow, but if it can organize itself quickly enough with time to intensify, it may potentially strengthen into the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.


Another update will be posted later this evening discussing the longer range, otherwise the next update will be posted on Wednesday afternoon.