June 21, 2011: Stormy Conditions Return Tomorrow

Note: The Long Range Forecasts page has been updated with a brief discussion regarding the potential for a hot start to July. Note that the hurricane season outlook along with a brief overview of the rest of this summer will be posted on Friday.

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The area saw another mostly dry and comfortable day, with partly to mostly cloudy skies observed along with high temperatures peaking in the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west and in the upper 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. A few isolated thunderstorms were observed today, especially to the northwest of NYC towards southeastern New York, but these storms were mostly weak and did not produce much rain.

Today was the last dry day until Sunday. A warm front associated with a slow moving storm in the Midwest/Great Lakes will be stuck around the area, bringing mainly cloudy skies and occasional showers and thunderstorms, with rainfall amounts locally up to 2 inches possible by Saturday before drier conditions return by Sunday and early next week.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will start out with partly cloudy skies, but cloud cover will increase, with mostly cloudy skies by the afternoon hours. As the warm front approaches the area, scattered thunderstorms will develop by the afternoon and evening hours, especially to the west of NYC. Some of these storms may potentially be strong, but locally heavy rain is the biggest risk with these storms. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than today, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west and the mid to upper 70s in Long Island and southern Connecticut along with a southeast wind. Parts of the immediate NYC area may reach the mid 80s.

More widespread storms are expected for tomorrow night as the warm front moves through, with storms once again bringing the risk for locally heavy rainfall. Low temperatures will be mild, mostly in the mid to upper 60s across the area, and New York City may fail to drop below the 70 degree mark.

Thursday - Saturday: Storms Continue

The set up for Thursday and Friday is more difficult to forecast, and tonight's forecast may end up busting too warm or cold in some places, as the warm front will set up over the area, but exactly where it sets up is still slightly uncertain. Yesterday's models kept the front just south of the area, but today's models vary from showing the front slightly north of NYC or directly over NYC. When looking at the overall position of the front, places west of NYC are more likely to be under the warm sector of the storm than Long Island and southern Connecticut, and this is the general idea I followed with my forecast tonight.

High temperatures on Thursday and Friday are expected to reach the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west with mostly cloudy skies along with scattered thunderstorms, and Long Island and southern Connecticut are expected to see high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s with cloudy skies and the potential for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. As with Wednesday, storms on Thursday and Friday will be capable of producing heavy rainfall.

The storm will finally begin to exit the area on Saturday as the cold front will be east of the area, with more of a southwest wind expected across the area. As a result, warmer temperatures will return into Long Island and southern Connecticut, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower to mid 80s expected once again from NYC and further west. Partly cloudy skies will return across most of the area, and while an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, Saturday will be drier than the previous days. Sunday will continue this trend, with most of the area staying dry. Tomorrow's update will discuss the scenario for next week in more details.

Tropics: Beatriz Collapsing

East Pacific: Earlier today, Beatriz peaked as a strong Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds near 90 mph while just off the coast of Mexico. Since then, however, Beatriz has quickly weakened, with the latest satellite image showing a very disorganized and weak area of clouds. NHC's 5 PM update put Beatriz with 60 mph sustained winds, and Beatriz will continue to quickly collapse from this point, likely to be no more than a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm at best by Wednesday morning. Beatriz' final advisory will likely be issued by tomorrow night.