June 19, 2011: Dry Start, Stormy Ending This Week

Today was another nice day across the area, with mostly to partly sunny skies observed once again. High temperatures were in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland, lower to mid 80s in the immediate NYC area, and in the upper 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. The current set up producing the dry and comfortable conditions in the area will continue through tomorrow and Tuesday as well, but by Wednesday, a warm front followed by a slow moving cold front will bring a stormy end to the week, with several possibilities for severe thunderstorms to affect the area.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a mostly dry and comfortable day as well. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but the area is expected to be dry with most of the rain staying to the south of the area. A SW wind is expected, but high temperatures will be much cooler than today, only reaching the mid to upper 70s across most of the area with a few lower 80s expected in the immediate NYC area.


Tuesday - Friday: Warmer, More Stormy

By Tuesday, temperatures will begin to warm up again. A southwest wind is expected once again, but with partly sunny skies and warmer 850 mb temperatures, temperatures will be warmer, reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west and the upper 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

A relatively strong low pressure in the Midwest will slowly begin to move east, with a warm front moving through the area on Wednesday. Temperatures will significantly warm up as a result, with a SW/SSW wind expected and high temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s in the immediate NYC area, lower to mid 80s inland, and the upper 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. With the warm front moving through along with supportive severe weather parameters in place, there is a risk for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon and evening hours, affecting the area.

By Thursday, the warm front is expected to be to the north of NYC, but the cold front will be slow to move towards the area. Both Thursday and Friday will bring thunderstorms to most of the area, and severe weather is possible on both days, with models showing high precipitable water values indicating the potential for heavy rainfall with the storms, lift index up to -5, and decent lapse rates and CAPE values. At this time, it cannot be determined which day has a higher risk of severe weather, but the DGEX and GFS models point to Friday for the better risk of severe weather with their latest runs. High temperatures on both days will be slightly cooler, mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area. Stay tuned for more information on the potential severe weather late next week.


Tropics: Tropical Storm Beatriz Headed Towards Mexico


Atlantic: There is no notable tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean.

East Pacific: Since last night, the tropical disturbance has become better organized, and has been named Tropical Depression 2-E this morning. Shortly afterwards, 2-E was upgraded to Tropical Storm Beatriz, the second named storm of this year's East Pacific hurricane season. Beatriz is expected to slowly intensify, peaking over the next 2-3 days as a strong tropical storm or a weak Category 1 hurricane. The model guidance, however, takes Beatriz very close to the southern coast of Mexico, with some showing landfall. While at this time, Beatriz' center is expected to stay offshore, strong tropical storm or weak hurricane force conditions could be observed in south central Mexico on Tuesday.