June 30, 2011 Morning: Heat Returns Next Week

Note: Due to technical difficulties, no additional update was posted tonight. A brief update will be posted on Friday morning, with a more detailed discussion tomorrow evening.

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After a cold front moved through on Tuesday night, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms mostly focusing over southern Connecticut, Wednesday was a partly to mostly cloudy and dry day across the area, with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s inland, lower to mid 80s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 70s to lower 80s across Long Island and southern Connecticut.

Today and tomorrow will be dry and comfortable once again, with similar temperatures to those of yesterday. By the weekend, however, uncertainty increases as a large ridge begins to move towards the area, but may potentially be blocked by an upper level low off the coast. Regardless of what the upper level low does, however, some heat will manage to reach the area, with temperatures over the weekend and mid-late next week likely to reach the lower 90s in parts of the immediate NYC area along with occasional rain chances.


Today's Outlook:

Today will be another seasonable day across the area. With a NW wind expected today, high temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s inland, lower to mid 80s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. No rain is expected today.


Friday - Monday: Heat Starts To Build In

Friday will bring conditions similar to those of today as well, with similar temperatures, but this time with a NNW wind along with the risk of an isolated thunderstorm north of NYC. By Saturday, the massive ridge currently building in the central US will reach the region, but how it affects the area is still uncertain. As mentioned with last night's update, the latest models have trended towards an upper level low (ULL) sticking off the coast, completely preventing the heat from reaching the area other than a one day heat surge, which would likely end up on Sunday with this scenario. The NAM and GFS runs continued to trend in this direction, with the GFS slowly trending towards a stronger ULL, but the main difference is that the GFS shows the upper level low far enough from the coast to prevent it from completely blocking the heat while moving the ULL away from the coast towards New England, allowing heat to move in on Sunday. The ECMWF and GGEM, however, show the ULL closer to the coast and stall it there for 2 days, preventing the heat from coming in.

As mentioned above, there are currently two possibilities for this weekend. One possibility is that the ULL moves away from the region by Saturday/Sunday, with the result being a shorter heat spell but with the heat still reaching the area, bringing highs in the upper 80s to NYC on Saturday and the lower 90s on Sunday, with these temperatures sticking through most of next week. The other possibility is that the ULL sticks off the coast, keeping temperatures in the lower to potentially upper 80s with partly to mostly cloudy skies and occasional rain chances. At this time, I am going with a scenario slightly closer to the GFS but with some differences, expecting warming temperatures on Saturday and Sunday, reaching the lower 90s in parts of the immediate NYC area on Sunday as a cold front reaches the area, resulting in cooler temperatures, back into the mid to upper 80s. There is still some uncertainty with this scenario, and the current forecast may slightly change over the next day or two.


Next Week: Some Heat Continues

The differences for this weekend continue through next week as well, with the warmer GFS keeping temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s stuck through almost all of next week, while the GGEM and ECMWF keep colder temperatures for a longer period of time, with yesterday's 12z ECMWF bringing in a much colder air mass by early-mid next week. At this time, I expect a cold front to move through on Sunday, bringing slightly cooler temperatures for Monday and Tuesday, but this is not expected to be a significant cool down, with temperatures likely dropping into the lower to upper 80s across the area for both days. As with the weekend, this is still uncertain, and is subject to some changes.

Some of the model runs, including the GGEM and ECMWF which are not very warm this weekend, show the ridge eventually rebuilding itself and reaching the area by Wednesday and Thursday, bringing warmer temperatures ahead of another cold front. The outcome for mid-late next week has more uncertainty due to differences with what happens in the weekend and the early week, but the potential is there for lower 90s to return into NYC by Wednesday and/or Thursday, followed by cooler temperatures for next weekend. Stay tuned for more information on the scenario for this weekend and next week over the next few days.

June 29, 2011 Brief Update

4:40 PM: The next full update will be posted early tomorrow morning, however there are some changes with the latest forecast which will be discussed in more details with tomorrow morning's update, which will include an updated 5-Day Forecast. The latest models have trended towards a direction in which the trough currently over the region fails to exit; it remains stuck just off the coast and even intensifies next weekend, almost completely blocking the ridge from moving into the area and instead bringing a single warm day with upper 80s followed by lower 80s with clouds and rain chances. The main models showing this are the GGEM and ECMWF, and the NAM's latest 18z run trended towards this scenario as well. The GFS still does not show this, but it has been trending towards this solution with its last 6 runs, and may begin to trend colder by tonight's 18z/00z runs.

Should the originally expected scenario verify, which is still a possibilty but not a very likely one, temperatures would reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area on Saturday, with Sunday the hottest day with temperatures potentially reaching the mid 90s in the immediate NYC area, followed by upper 80s to lower 90s persisting through Wednesday with occasional thunderstorm chances. We are still under a negative NAO and positive PNA pattern with no significant pattern change expected through early July, however, and especially considering the pattern we've been under so far this year, there is some reason to doubt such a long lasting major heat spell. While today's scenario on the models is only a very recent change, it may very well be more likely than the original prolonged heat wave solution, as the pattern this year seems to be repeating itself over again with long range heat potentials that turn into slightly below average temperatures along with rain chances. Tomorrow's update will discuss this potential change in the forecast in more details.


Tropics: Tropical Storm Arlene, the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, formed last night from Invest 95L, which was mentioned in yesterday's afternoon update. Arlene is currently a moderate tropical storm, with 50 mph sustained winds and a minimum pressure of about 1000 mb. While Arelene likely does not have enough time to intensify into a hurricane prior to landfall tonight, it is expected to peak as a strong tropical storm, with sustained winds between 60-70 mph, when it makes landfall in Mexico. Other than Arlene, there is no tropical disturbance that may develop into a tropical cyclone over the next few days.

June 28, 2011 Evening Update

Note: The 5-Day Forecast page was updated this morning. The next update will be posted on Wednesday afternoon.

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Short Range: Storms continue to affect New York and Virginia, with very little activity in Pennsylvania. Other than an isolated thunderstorm, most of the area will stay dry tonight.

Wednesday - Friday: This time frame will be dry, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area.

Saturday - Tuesday: A 3-day heat wave will affect parts of the area, from Saturday, July 2, through Monday, July 4. A large ridge from the central US will move into the region bringing 850 mb temperatures near or slightly above 20 degrees celsius, especially on Sunday. There is some slight uncertainty with the temperatures, and at this time I am expecting upper 80s to lower 90s from NYC and further west from Saturday to Monday, but if the warmer case scenario verifies, mid 90s may be possible in the immediate NYC area. A cold front will move through sometime early next week, bringing a risk of showers and thunderstorms between Monday and Wednesday. More information on the heat and potential storms will be posted with tomorrow's update.

June 28, 2011 Noon Update

5:20 PM: As a cold front is currently approaching the area from the west, storms are starting to form across the Northeast, however it now appears that most of these storms will miss the area. The latest radar, posted to the left, only shows activity over New York and Virginia, with little activity in Pennsylvania. Almost every short range model keeps storms today to the north and south of the area as well while focusing today's activity over Virginia and New York.

Scattered storms are possible tonight especially to the north and west of NYC in the early overnight hours, around 8 PM to 12 AM, but the best risk of storms will stay to the north of the area, and parts of the NYC tri-state area may not see any rain tonight.


Tropics: Tropical Depression About To Form


When Hurricane Beatriz was still active, I mentioned the potential for tropical activity to increase in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico regions around late June. We are currently seeing a tropical wave in the southern Gulf of Mexico, Invest 95L, which is organizing itself while moving WNW, and the National Hurricane Center is currently giving this a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression. With the relatively favorable environment surrounding Invest 95L, further development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight. 95L has a limited time to intensify before it makes landfall in Mexico tomorrow, but if it can organize itself quickly enough with time to intensify, it may potentially strengthen into the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.


Another update will be posted later this evening discussing the longer range, otherwise the next update will be posted on Wednesday afternoon.

June 27, 2011: Some Storms Tomorrow

As with yesterday, the area saw another dry and comfortable day, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and average temperatures. A cold front approaching the area tomorrow will bring the risk of scattered storms tomorrow evening which may produce locally heavy rain, but dry and comfortable conditions return by Wednesday once again. This time, the nice conditions won't last for long, as a ridge moving into the region will bring temperatures well into the 80s and potentially the lower 90s along with increasing humidity.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tuesday will bring temperatures similar to those of today, reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west and the upper 70s to lower 80s east of NYC. The main difference, however, is that mostly cloudy skies are expected throughout the day becoming cloudy by the late afternoon. As a cold front approaches the area, scattered thunderstorms will move into the area from eastern Pennsylvania, and while these storms will stay below severe levels, they will be capable of producing locally heavy rain and gusty winds. The peak of the storms will be around the evening into the early overnight hours, with most of the area expected to by dry by 12 AM.

Wednesday - Friday: Dry Conditions Return

Behind the cold front, a west/WNW wind will return by Wednesday with similar temperatures, reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area. These conditions will last through Friday as the low pressure that will bring Tuesday's cold front through becomes a cut off low northeast of Maine, locking a trough over the Northeast. By Saturday, a strong ridge in the central US will spread towards the region, and while it will weaken by that time and it will be blocked from reaching parts of the Northeast due to the trough in place, it appears that it may be able to affect the area for a brief period of time.

Next Weekend Into Next Week:

With the heat moving into the region around Saturday followed by a cold front around Sunday/Monday, the immediate NYC area is likely to see a day or two of temperatures in the upper 80s to potentially lower 90s. It is a possibility that history repeats itself and the heat fails to reach the area, resulting in stormy conditions and temperatures mostly in the 70s to lower 80s, and while at this time, this solution is not as likely, it will be watched in case it becomes more likely. There is some uncertainty for early-mid next week, ranging from the GGEM which brings a strong trough to the ECMWF which has the heat lasting through most of next week. Given the pattern we are currently in, the ECMWF's solution is less likely to verify, and cooler temperatures may return by early-mid next week.

**No update posted 6/26/11**

No full update was posted tonight. This morning's 5-Day Forecast remains the same, and the expectation is still there for strong thunderstorms to affect the area on Tuesday evening into the early overnight hours, with storms reaching NYC by at least 8 PM. Next weekend won't bring any huge heat, but upper 80s are expected in the area at this time, which despite being barely a few degrees above average, would be some of the warmest temperatures of the year so far and potentially of the entire summer. Seasonable temperatures will return by Monday-Tuesday of next week. Tomorrow night's update will discuss Tuesday's storms and the longer range in more details.

June 25, 2011: Strong Storms Possible Tuesday

With the low pressure that has affected the area over the last several days finally out of the region, today brought warmer temperatures to the area, peaking in the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west, and in the lower to mid 70s across most of Long Island and southern Connecticut with upper 70s closer to NYC. Most of the storms today stayed well north of the area, in New England, but some weak showers did affect Westchester county.

Temperatures will remain in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the area tomorrow and through most of next week, and while most of the week will be dry, there is the potential for strong or severe thunderstorms on Tuesday evening and night as a negatively tilted low pressure moves through the region. Meanwhile, a massive ridge will develop in the central US mid-late next week, eventually spreading into the area and bringing the potential for temperatures next weekend to reach 90 degrees for the first time since June 8th.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be another nice day across the area. With partly sunny skies and a WNW wind, high temperatures will rise once again into the upper 70s to mid 80s from NYC and further west, and the mid 70s across most of Long Island and southern Connecticut with upper 70s closer to NYC. Dry conditions are expected tomorrow, and even though the 18z NAM run shows thunderstorms developing tomorrow afternoon, it is an outlier solution for tomorrow.


Next Week: Mainly Dry, Storms On Tuesday

The week will start with mostly to partly sunny skies and dry conditions. Temperatures will slightly warm up on Monday, with more widespread mid 80s from NYC and further west, and Long Island/southern Connecticut will warm up as well, with widespread upper 70s along with some lower 80s away from the immediate coast.

By Tuesday, however, cloud cover will increase as a negatively tilted low pressure moves into the region. Mainly cloudy skies are expected with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s from NYC and further west and the lower to upper 70s in Long Island/southern Connecticut with a SSE wind. There will be some instability with decent severe weather parameters, and as a result, thunderstorms will move into the area from west to east during the late afternoon and evening hours, some of them potentially strong or severe, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Storms will continue through the early overnight hours, with drier conditions by Wednesday morning. Stay tuned for more updates on Tuesday's potential severe weather.

Other than a weak trough moving into the area, the rest of the week will not bring any significant weather into the area, with dry conditions expected along with partly sunny skies and temperatures generally in the mid 70s to lower 80s in Long Island/southern Connecticut and the upper 70s to mid 80s from NYC and further west. By next weekend, however, a significantly warmer air mass will spread into the region, and while it will only be brief, lasting for 3 days at most, from July 2nd to July 4th, models are showing the potential for 850 mb temperatures to reach 20 degrees celsius. This is still in the longer range, and it may be colder than currently expected as we have seen with previous warm spell potentials which have failed to verify, but with a massive ridge in the central US spreading towards the region, at least some heat is expected to reach the area. In the warmer case scenario, temperatures may reach the lower 90s in parts of the area next weekend, followed by the return of seasonable temperatures by the middle of next week. Stay tuned for more information on the potential heat.

June 24, 2011: Sustained Warmth Finally Returns

Note: The 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season outlook has now been posted in the "Long Range Outlooks" page, along with a brief overview of the rest of this summer.

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The clouds and storms that have occasionally affected the area over the last 3 days are now ending as the cold front is currently moving through. The warm front was south of the expectation, stalling in central New Jersey, resulting in temperatures colder than expected, only peaking in the mid 70s in the western parts of the area, upper 60s to lower 70s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid to upper 60s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. With the stalled front stretching from central NJ to the border between NJ, PA and NY, storms stayed away from the area as well, with storms staying to the north, west and south of the area.

The cold front moving through will actually help bring more sustained warmth into the area. With more sunshine tomorrow along with a west wind, temperatures will be much warmer than today, reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west, and in the lower to upper 70s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. Near to slightly above average temperatures will persist through the rest of next week, and there are indications that temperatures may return into the 90s by next weekend.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

With the cold front out of the area, more sunshine will return along with a west wind. Although the 850 mb temperatures will be slightly cooler than those of today, the previously mentioned conditions will allow temperatures to be warmer than those of today, with high temperatures reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west and the lower to upper 70s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

As the low pressure will still be near the Northeast, however, scattered thunderstorms are expected across the interior Northeast, especially in eastern New York and New England. It is possible that some of these storms may get as far south as northern New Jersey, and I placed a 40% chance of rain on Saturday afternoon and evening in the 5-Day Forecast.

Next Week: Warmth Finally Sustained

A week ago, I expected this week to end up warm, with temperatures well into the 80s. The warm front and the position of the low pressure, however, prevented this from happening. Unlike this week, when issues with the warm front placement prevented the area from seeing the warmth that was originally expected, there will be no such issues next week, with the only factors that may limit warmth being cloud cover and potential storms on Tuesday afternoon and a trough on Wednesday/Thursday. Even with these potential issues, high temperatures will be much warmer than those of Wednesday through today, with temperatures in the immediate NYC likely ending up in the mid to upper 70s in the coldest case scenario.

Temperatures will slightly warm up on Sunday and Monday, peaking in the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west and the mid 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. A warm air mass will reach the area on Tuesday from the southern US, with 850 mb temperatures near 18c, but this warmth will be short lasting as another cold front approaches the area. There is still some uncertainty with the exact timing, but the overall idea is there for warmer temperatures on Tuesday, reaching the mid 80s from NYC and further west, with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong or severe. The best risk of storms should be in the overnight hours of Tuesday, though some storms are still possible on Wednesday.

Once this cold front moves out of the area, a trough is expected to move into the NE, slightly lowering temperatures. The 18z GFS develops a cut off low near Maine, resulting in a strong trough sticking around the region through the rest of the first week of July, and while the trough could stick around slightly longer than expected, the GFS is likely overdoing the cut off low, and its own ensemble mean goes against this solution as well. At the same time that the trough is over the region, a massive ridge will begin to build in the central US, with 850 mb temperatures getting into the 30c range outside of the Rockies, potentially resulting in record highs in those areas. While the worst of the heat will stay to the west of the area, a moderated version of this heat may affect the area on the weekend of July 2-3. More information on this has been posted in the Long Range Forecasts page below the hurricane season/summer outlook.

June 24, 2011 Storm Updates

4:20 PM: With the warm front stuck just south of NYC, the area is currently seeing chilly temperatures with most of the tri-state area below 70 degrees, which is colder than the expectation for today. Some strong storms are trying to move into New Jersey from eastern Pennsylvania, but are weakening as they are doing so, and for the short term, these storms will likely dissipate before reaching New York City.

Later today, however, the cold front will move through in the evening. With the cold front, there is a better risk of scattered thunderstorms, especially between 6 and 10 PM tonight. The best risk of storms will stay in Pennsylvania and New York, and the storms will significantly weaken as they move east of NYC into Long Island and southern Connecticut, but storms today will still be capable of producing locally heavy rain and gusty winds, especially west of NYC. Drier conditions will return for tonight, with tomorrow bringing warmer temperatures and mainly dry conditions with an isolated thunderstorm possible north of NYC in the late afternoon and evening hours.

June 23, 2011: Warmth Returns Next Week

Note: This update will be split. A discussion for the next week was posted tonight. On Friday morning, an update on the tropics will be posted, and the 5-Day Forecast and Long Range Forecasts pages will be updated as well.

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As a warm front remained stalled around the area, today brought cooler temperatures along with more strong thunderstorms. Flash flooding affected sections of north central New Jersey, Rockland/Westchester counties in NY, and southwestern Connecticut, as 1.5 to 3 inches of rain fell in a relatively short period of time. The cold front will finally move through the area tomorrow, bringing another round of afternoon thunderstorms with drier conditions returning this weekend, but the warmth will return next week along with another severe weather potential.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

As previously mentioned, the cold front will move through the area tomorrow. As a result, the wind will transition from the ESE more towards the south. Along with the cold front, however, comes a risk of severe weather. Mainly cloudy skies are expected, though some breaks in the cloud cover may be possible in the late morning. By the early afternoon hours, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and move towards the area. The best risk of storms will be from NYC and further north and west, with storms once again capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall, capable of producing localized flash flooding. High temperatures will be warmer than today, reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west, and the lower to mid 70s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.


Weekend Outlook: Drier, More Sunshine

With the cold front out of the area by Saturday, more sunshine is expected along with a WSW wind. These factors will allow temperatures to actually be warmer than those of tomorrow across the area despite the cold front having moved through. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west, and the mid to upper 70s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. A few mid 80s may be possible just west and southwest of NYC. There is still the risk for isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, however, especially to the north of NYC, but most of these storms will stay in New England.

Sunday will be the first full dry day since Tuesday. With the storm mostly out of the region, partly sunny skies will return into the area. With a W/WNW wind expected along with similar 850 mb temperatures to those of Saturday, temperatures will be similar to those of Saturday.


Next Week: Warmth Starts To Return

The worst of the heat will stay bottled up in the central US for now, where a massive ridge will be developing throughout next week, but some warmth will spread into the area. With warmer 850 mb temperatures spreading into the region, Monday will bring partly sunny skies with slightly warmer temperatures, reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west, and the upper 70s to potentially lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

The warmth will continue to spread into the area, with 850 mb temperatures expected to be near 18c on Tuesday, but a cold front will keep this surge of warmth very brief. There is some slight uncertainty with the high temperatures, but in the warmer case scenario, highs may reach the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further west. With supportive CAPE/LI values and decent bulk shear and lapse rates, the potential is there for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms to affect parts of the area on Tuesday. The timing is still uncertain, however, and it is possible that the front may be delayed until Wednesday. Stay tuned for more information on the potential storms on Tuesday and/or Wednesday.

Longer Range: By the late week, temperatures will stay in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area behind the cold front, but will begin to warm up on Friday. More significant heat may return into the area next weekend, around July 2-4, which will be discussed in more information with tomorrow morning's update in the Long Range Forecasts section.

June 23, 2011 Noon Update

2:50 PM: Heavy Rain In Long Island, Connecticut

Late this morning into the early afternoon hours, a round of strong thunderstorms moved through northern New Jersey and southeastern New York. The strongest storm went from West Passaic to Rockland county, producing estimated rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches of rain, but the majority of northern NJ and SE NY also saw rainfall amounts between 1/2 and 1 inch.

There are still some storms currently active across the area. There is a weak line of storms currently entering western Westchester County and moving east. This line will enter SW Connecticut within the next hour. There are some strong storms in northern Suffolk county in Long Island, with moderate to heavy rain and thunder affecting southern Connecticut. These storms will clear the area by at least 4-5 PM.

This round of storms is the main round for today. Some scattered storms may be possible this evening, but most of the storms will stay to the west of the area, towards Pennsylvania and New York. Scattered thunderstorms are expected again tomorrow afternoon. Stay tuned for more information on tomorrow's storms, the outlook for next week, and a potential tropical storm/hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico late next week with tonight's update.

June 22, 2011 Storm Updates

Below, storm updates will be posted for the severe thunderstorms currently affecting the area.

**Note: Short term outlook graphics will be posted with the current radar image from the NWS attached. Click on the images to view them in a larger size.**


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10:00 PM: Storms Return Tomorrow

A warm front currently stalled just north of the area began a 3-day stretch of occasional showers and thunderstorms. Today proved to be a wet day especially north of NYC, where radar estimates show anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain in interior SE NY and locally up to 2 inches in parts of northern New Jersey. Southern Long Island and Bergen County ended up as the dry areas today, seeing less than 1/4 inch.

Tomorrow will be similar to today in some ways. Some storm are possible tomorrow morning, but are unlikely to be as strong as this morning's storms in the Hudson Valley. By the evening, with instability in place, strong thunderstorms are expected to develop once again, especially from NYC and further west and north. Friday's forecast is the same from this morning, but temperatures are a little uncertain, as the main models show high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s while the NAM has nearly 90 degrees in NE NJ. At this time, I went with a blend of both, expecting highs in the mid 80s from NYC and further west with a few upper 80s possible in the immediate NYC area. Scattered showers and storms are possible on Saturday afternoon and evening, especially north of NYC, and Sunday will be dry.

Long Range Update: The potential heat for early July may not be as significant as originally thought. The long range forecast will be revised tomorrow.

Tropics Update: With Beatriz gone, having collapsed from an 80 mph hurricane to barely an area of clouds producing 20-30 mph winds in only 12 hours, attention now turns towards the Atlantic. The GFS and GGEM models continue to show signals for a tropical cyclone developing in the Gulf of Mexico next week, staying in the southern and western Gulf of Mexico, and according to the GFS, potentially targeting Texas and Louisiana. This is still in the medium-long range, but the potential is there for a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

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6:20 PM: The severe thunderstorm previously in western Morris county is currently near eastern Morris county. The tornado warning has been cancelled for this storm as it has weakened, and will continue to weaken in the short term. This storm is moving towards Jersey City and Manhattan, but will likely weaken to a small area of moderate showers and thunderstorms within the next 1/2 hour as it reaches these areas.


The storm in Bergen county has weakened as well, producing some light rain at most. The only storm that has not weakened yet is in western Orange county and moving ESE, producing heavy rain and gusty winds. The storms across northern NJ will continue to weaken as they move towards Long Island.


5:40 PM: ***URGENT*** The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Warning for western Morris county. A severe storm currently in west central Morris county is capable of producing a tornado. This storm is producing strong wind gusts and potentially moderate hail as well. This storm is moving towards the ESE, and within the next 1/2 hour is expected to cross Morris county and enter western Essex county. Should the storm continue on its current path, Jersey City and southern Manhattan may be in the path of this storm within the next hour.

In addition to the severe thunderstorm, there are three other strong thunderstorms; one of them is currently entering western Orange county, another one is near Patterson and will move NE towards central Bergen county, and a third storm is currently developing in northern Somerset county but will merge with the severe Morris county cell. These storms are capable of producing strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and potentially small hail.


11:45 AM: Earlier this morning, a round of strong thunderstorms moved east through the northern parts of the area, focusing on Orange and Rockland counties with heavy rain and strong winds. Some rain fell in northern NJ, NYC, and the eastern parts of the area, but most of the rain stayed to the northwest of NYC. These storms are still in southern Connecticut, and will continue to most east, affecting southern Connecticut and extreme northern Long Island with heavy rain and gusty winds. This is just the start of what will be an active ending to this week.


Tonight: Mainly dry conditions are expected in the early to mid afternoon hours with an isolated shower or thunderstorm expected. Late this afternoon, however, strong thunderstorms associated with the warm front stuck near the area are expected to form in eastern Pennsylvania and move east, affecting the area during the evening hours, approximately between 5-8 PM. The worst of the storms will stay mostly from NYC and further west, but will produce rain in Long Island and southern Connecticut as well. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and gusty winds. The rest of the overnight hours behind these storms should stay dry, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.


Tomorrow: The latest models are hinting at potential storm activity tomorrow morning. The best risk of storms should stay to the north and northwest of NYC. Mostly cloudy skies are expected late tomorrow morning into early tomorrow afternoon with temperatures slowly rising into the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west and the upper 70s east of NYC.

By the mid afternoon hours, strong thunderstorms are expected to once again approach the area from the west. These storms will continue through the evening and early overnight hours, bringing the potential for heavy rain and gusty winds. Drier conditions are expected again tomorrow night with scattered thunderstorms possible.

Friday and Saturday: By Friday, there is more uncertainty with the exact timing of the storms as this is in the longer range, but warmer temperatures are expected ahead of the cold front, potentially reaching the upper 80s just west of NYC. Strong thunderstorms are expected once again during the evening and early overnight hours, with cloudy skies and an isolated thunderstorm otherwise. Saturday will bring more sunshine with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected, though an isolated thunderstorm is possible in the afternoon and evening hours, especially north of NYC.

June 21, 2011: Stormy Conditions Return Tomorrow

Note: The Long Range Forecasts page has been updated with a brief discussion regarding the potential for a hot start to July. Note that the hurricane season outlook along with a brief overview of the rest of this summer will be posted on Friday.

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The area saw another mostly dry and comfortable day, with partly to mostly cloudy skies observed along with high temperatures peaking in the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west and in the upper 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. A few isolated thunderstorms were observed today, especially to the northwest of NYC towards southeastern New York, but these storms were mostly weak and did not produce much rain.

Today was the last dry day until Sunday. A warm front associated with a slow moving storm in the Midwest/Great Lakes will be stuck around the area, bringing mainly cloudy skies and occasional showers and thunderstorms, with rainfall amounts locally up to 2 inches possible by Saturday before drier conditions return by Sunday and early next week.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will start out with partly cloudy skies, but cloud cover will increase, with mostly cloudy skies by the afternoon hours. As the warm front approaches the area, scattered thunderstorms will develop by the afternoon and evening hours, especially to the west of NYC. Some of these storms may potentially be strong, but locally heavy rain is the biggest risk with these storms. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than today, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west and the mid to upper 70s in Long Island and southern Connecticut along with a southeast wind. Parts of the immediate NYC area may reach the mid 80s.

More widespread storms are expected for tomorrow night as the warm front moves through, with storms once again bringing the risk for locally heavy rainfall. Low temperatures will be mild, mostly in the mid to upper 60s across the area, and New York City may fail to drop below the 70 degree mark.

Thursday - Saturday: Storms Continue

The set up for Thursday and Friday is more difficult to forecast, and tonight's forecast may end up busting too warm or cold in some places, as the warm front will set up over the area, but exactly where it sets up is still slightly uncertain. Yesterday's models kept the front just south of the area, but today's models vary from showing the front slightly north of NYC or directly over NYC. When looking at the overall position of the front, places west of NYC are more likely to be under the warm sector of the storm than Long Island and southern Connecticut, and this is the general idea I followed with my forecast tonight.

High temperatures on Thursday and Friday are expected to reach the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west with mostly cloudy skies along with scattered thunderstorms, and Long Island and southern Connecticut are expected to see high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s with cloudy skies and the potential for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. As with Wednesday, storms on Thursday and Friday will be capable of producing heavy rainfall.

The storm will finally begin to exit the area on Saturday as the cold front will be east of the area, with more of a southwest wind expected across the area. As a result, warmer temperatures will return into Long Island and southern Connecticut, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower to mid 80s expected once again from NYC and further west. Partly cloudy skies will return across most of the area, and while an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, Saturday will be drier than the previous days. Sunday will continue this trend, with most of the area staying dry. Tomorrow's update will discuss the scenario for next week in more details.

Tropics: Beatriz Collapsing

East Pacific: Earlier today, Beatriz peaked as a strong Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds near 90 mph while just off the coast of Mexico. Since then, however, Beatriz has quickly weakened, with the latest satellite image showing a very disorganized and weak area of clouds. NHC's 5 PM update put Beatriz with 60 mph sustained winds, and Beatriz will continue to quickly collapse from this point, likely to be no more than a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm at best by Wednesday morning. Beatriz' final advisory will likely be issued by tomorrow night.

June 20, 2011: Wet, Stormy Ending To Week

The area saw another nice day today, with partly sunny skies observed with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area and a few mid 70s in Long Island/southern Connecticut. An area of heavy rain affected the Mid Atlantic this morning, but this area of rain stayed well to the south of the area with no direct impact.

That area of rain, however, will have an indirect impact on the pattern of the area. The low pressure associated with this area of rain, currently off the coast of the Mid Atlantic, brought a cold front into Virginia and North Carolina, keeping the warm front to the southwest of the area. The warm front will eventually reach the area, but it will not be able to completely move through, keeping the area stuck under cloudy skies and frequent showers and thunderstorms through the end of this week and into Saturday.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be the last comfortable and dry day for a while. Partly sunny skies are expected once again with a southwest wind, with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west and the mid to upper 70s in Long Island/southern Connecticut with a few lower 80s possible. There is the potential for an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening hours, but the higher risk of storms will wait until Wednesday.

Wednesday - Saturday: Cloudy, Wet

Wednesday will bring mostly cloudy skies to the area as the warm front tries to move through. With the warm front, there is a low risk of severe weather on Wednesday, especially west and south of NYC. Regardless of whether the area sees severe weather or not, with precipitable water values near 2 inches, storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. High temperatures originally were expected to reach the upper 80s to potentially lower 90s, but there were changes with the set up as the models trended towards a negative tilt to the low pressure, which will prevent the warm front from making it much further north than NYC, if it even passes NYC at all. High temperatures as a result will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s from NYC and further west, and in the mid to upper 70s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

On Thursday, the warm front is expected to drift south of NYC as a cold front before stalling to the south of the area. As a result, the area will be under a stable air mass with cloudy skies, an east wind, and occasional showers with rumbles of thunder possible but no severe thunderstorms. High temperatures will be colder as well, in the mid to upper 70s from NYC and further west and the lower to mid 70s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

The warm front will not be able to move north of the area, and Friday will bring conditions similar to Thursday. The main difference is that temperatures will be slightly warmer, with lower 80s in the immediate NYC area. By Saturday, cloud cover is expected to begin clearing, with partly cloudy skies expected, but scattered thunderstorms are expected once again in the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will continue to slightly warm up, potentially reaching the mid 80s in the immediate NYC area. Dry conditions will finally return by Sunday and Monday with high temperatures staying in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area.

Tropics: Beatriz Almost A Hurricane

East Pacific: Tropical Storm Beatriz intensified throughout the day, and is now a 70 mph tropical storm. Beatriz will likely be upgraded to a weak Category 1 hurricane tonight, moving WNW with its center staying just off the coast of Mexico. By Wednesday, Beatriz will encounter lower sea surface temperatures and higher shear, causing Beatriz to start weakening. By next weekend, it is expected to weaken into a remnant low.

June 19, 2011: Dry Start, Stormy Ending This Week

Today was another nice day across the area, with mostly to partly sunny skies observed once again. High temperatures were in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland, lower to mid 80s in the immediate NYC area, and in the upper 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. The current set up producing the dry and comfortable conditions in the area will continue through tomorrow and Tuesday as well, but by Wednesday, a warm front followed by a slow moving cold front will bring a stormy end to the week, with several possibilities for severe thunderstorms to affect the area.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a mostly dry and comfortable day as well. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but the area is expected to be dry with most of the rain staying to the south of the area. A SW wind is expected, but high temperatures will be much cooler than today, only reaching the mid to upper 70s across most of the area with a few lower 80s expected in the immediate NYC area.


Tuesday - Friday: Warmer, More Stormy

By Tuesday, temperatures will begin to warm up again. A southwest wind is expected once again, but with partly sunny skies and warmer 850 mb temperatures, temperatures will be warmer, reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west and the upper 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

A relatively strong low pressure in the Midwest will slowly begin to move east, with a warm front moving through the area on Wednesday. Temperatures will significantly warm up as a result, with a SW/SSW wind expected and high temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s in the immediate NYC area, lower to mid 80s inland, and the upper 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. With the warm front moving through along with supportive severe weather parameters in place, there is a risk for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon and evening hours, affecting the area.

By Thursday, the warm front is expected to be to the north of NYC, but the cold front will be slow to move towards the area. Both Thursday and Friday will bring thunderstorms to most of the area, and severe weather is possible on both days, with models showing high precipitable water values indicating the potential for heavy rainfall with the storms, lift index up to -5, and decent lapse rates and CAPE values. At this time, it cannot be determined which day has a higher risk of severe weather, but the DGEX and GFS models point to Friday for the better risk of severe weather with their latest runs. High temperatures on both days will be slightly cooler, mostly in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area. Stay tuned for more information on the potential severe weather late next week.


Tropics: Tropical Storm Beatriz Headed Towards Mexico


Atlantic: There is no notable tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean.

East Pacific: Since last night, the tropical disturbance has become better organized, and has been named Tropical Depression 2-E this morning. Shortly afterwards, 2-E was upgraded to Tropical Storm Beatriz, the second named storm of this year's East Pacific hurricane season. Beatriz is expected to slowly intensify, peaking over the next 2-3 days as a strong tropical storm or a weak Category 1 hurricane. The model guidance, however, takes Beatriz very close to the southern coast of Mexico, with some showing landfall. While at this time, Beatriz' center is expected to stay offshore, strong tropical storm or weak hurricane force conditions could be observed in south central Mexico on Tuesday.

June 18, 2011: Heat, Storms Return Wednesday

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After yesterday's storms, which first brought a round of heavy rain in the morning followed by strong thunderstorms in the afternoon, resulting in rain totals locally as high as 2-3 inches, today was a much nicer day across the area. Partly sunny skies were observed today, along with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s inland, mid to upper 80s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

Comfortable weather conditions will continue over the next several days, with partly sunny skies along with the risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, especially on Monday afternoon. As a much warmer air mass briefly reaches the region, however, much warmer temperatures will return by Wednesday, with parts of the area likely to reach the 90s once again along with a risk of severe thunderstorms.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be another nice day across the area. Mostly to partly sunny skies are expected with a NE/NNE wind. 850 mb temperatures will be similar to those of today, and as a result, similar temperatures are expected as well, reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west and the upper 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.


Monday - Tuesday: Warming Up

Since this morning, the models have backed away from the idea of a low pressure bringing heavy rainfall, and instead show only scattered rain activity in the region. For tonight's update, I kept the forecast for Monday the same, expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies with the risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening hours. Monday will bring the coolest temperatures this week, only reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area.

Warmer temperatures will return on Tuesday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out once again, but most of the area will stay dry. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further west, and the mid 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.


Wednesday - Friday: Storm Brings Warmth, Thunderstorms

A low pressure moving towards the region from the Great Lakes will bring a surge of warmth into the area along with a risk of severe thunderstorms. The heat currently building in the south central US will spread into the region by the early week, reaching the area on Wednesday. Widespread 80s are expected across the area, with lower 90s in parts of the immediate NYC area. In the evening, with models showing supportive severe weather parameters as the area is in the warm sector of the storm, there is the potential for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms to develop in the late afternoon and evening hours, with storms likely in the overnight hours.

For Thursday and Friday, the models are having difficulty with handling the track of the storm, with the GFS showing the storm stuck over the region through the weekend. There is too much uncertainty to narrow down the small details, but when looking at the overall picture, showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue through the late week, with drier conditions potentially returning by next weekend with colder temperatures. Stay tuned for more information on the warmth and potential storms.


Tropics: Tropical Depression 2-E Likely To Form


Atlantic: At this time, there is no tropical disturbance that may develop into a tropical cyclone over the next few days, but there are still signs that activity may increase especially near the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea area by the end of this month.

East Pacific: The tropical disturbance currently south of eastern Mexico that was mentioned two days ago has become more organized, and is still under a favorable environment, with no dry air, low shear, and warm SSTs. It is likely to develop into a tropical depression as soon as tomorrow, and may become the second named tropical storm of the East Pacific hurricane season this week. This storm will move towards the WNW, potentially close enough to the coast to affect coastal areas of southern Mexico.

June 17, 2011: Warmth Returns Next Week

As a low pressure moved through the region today, widespread showers and thunderstorms developed in the afternoon hours producing heavy rain and frequent cloud to ground lightning, and some of them produced hail in parts of the tri-state area, even in downtown Manhattan. As the low pressure exits the area with less instability, these showers have mostly dissipated, but some scattered showers continue to affect the eastern parts of the area.

Tomorrow will bring much warmer temperatures, reaching the upper 80s in parts of the immediate NYC area, but temperatures will slightly drop on Sunday and Monday with a risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm each day. As a much warmer air mass moves into the region by mid week, however, temperatures will return well into the 80s in parts of the area, and may reach the lower 90s once again in parts of the immediate NYC area by Thursday.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

With a WSW wind and partly sunny skies, temperatures tomorrow will rise into the 80s across most of the area. Mid to upper 80s are expected from NYC and further west, with upper 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. A few mid 80s may be possible closer to NYC.Today's low pressure will be in the northern Northeast, bringing drier conditions to the area, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out tomorrow in the late afternoon and evening hours.


Sunday - Tuesday: Dry, Isolated Storms Possible

Originally, the NAM and GGEM models were showing a low pressure bringing heavy rain on Sunday with little support. In my Thursday update, I mentioned how such a solution was unlikely to verify, and that scattered showers and thunderstorms were more likely. Both models yesterday backed away from that solution, and now show partly sunny skies with the risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Most places will stay dry, however, and the best risk of rain will stay to the south of NYC. Sunday will bring slightly cooler temperatures, reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west, and the mid 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

For Monday, the NAM and GGEM once again try to repeat the same mistake they made for Sunday, by trying to bring another relatively strong low pressure through with moderate to heavy rain. The latest NAM run has backed away from this solution, but the 00z GGEM still showed this scenario. As with Sunday, I am expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and thunderstorms, but the risk of storms on Monday is slightly higher than that of Sunday as this time, there will be a weak low pressure around. Temperatures will cool down slightly for Monday, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area.

On Tuesday, there is some uncertainty on whether the area will be north or south of the warm front. The GGEM and earlier NAM runs which showed the Monday storm keep the area north of the warm front on Tuesday and Wednesday. The GFS, meanwhile, keeps the area in the warm sector, with strong thunderstorms on Tuesday evening with temperatures rising well into the 80s. I am currently going with a solution close to the GFS but slightly cooler, with high temperatures reaching the mid to potentially upper 80s from NYC and further west on Tuesday, with a risk of an isolated thunderstorm in the evening.


Wednesday - Thursday: Warm, Stormy

By Wednesday, the area should be in the warm sector of the storm. Warmer temperatures will return, with high temperatures potentially reaching the lower 90s in parts of the immediate NYC area. Temperatures for Wednesday are still slightly uncertain, and could end up slightly warmer or colder. By Thursday, as the low pressure enters the region, temperatures may be warmer ahead of the cold front with 90s possible once again, and as the cold front approaches the area, there is a risk of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. Slightly cooler temperatures will return by next weekend. Stay tuned for more information on the warmth and potential storms for the area late next week.

June 17, 2011 Storm Updates

Below, storm updates will be posted on the strong thunderstorms currently affecting the area, especially from NYC and further north/west. The next update will be posted tonight, including an updated 5-Day Forecast.

**Short term outlooks will be posted to the left of each update. Click on the images to view them in a larger size.**


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6:25 PM: We have already passed the peak of today's storms, and the storms are starting to become more isolated across the region, but there are still a few strong storms in the area. Hudson county in NJ is seeing a heavy thunderstorm, which will move east into Manhattan and northern Queens. Another storm is currently entering southwestern Suffolk county, and will move ENE through the county. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms will continue to affect the area over the next 1-2 hours.

This is the last storm update for today. Unless another strong storm forms, the next update will be posted tonight, discussing this weekend and the outlook for next week.


4:45 PM: Severe thunderstorms continue to affect parts of the area. The main storm is currently affecting Union and Essex counties, as two separate severe storms are merging. As this is only a new development, with the storm in Union moving ESE and the storm in Essex moving NNE, the outcome is uncertain, but it is possible that the storm may then shift towards more of an ENE direction, or the storm in Union may become the main storm and continue to shift towards the ESE. Places that may be affected include SE Bergen, Hudson counties, and Manhattan, with this storm capable of producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail.


3:10 PM: Downtown Manhattan is currently under a severe thunderstorm which is producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. This storm will continue to move ENE, reaching northern Queens. Meanwhile, an area of heavy thunderstorms continues to affect NE New Jersey, which will move into western Long Island as well over the next 1/2 hour. Further west, strong thunderstorms continue to affect West Passaic and Orange counties, with more storms currently forming and intensifying in western Morris county.


2:35 PM: The strong thunderstorm previously in SW Union County is now near the SE part of that county, and is moving east. This storm will affect Jersey City, southern Manhattan and western Queens over the next 1/2 hour, producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and the potential for small hail. Otherwise, widespread heavy thunderstorms will continue to affect northern New Jersey.


2:00 PM: More storms formed across northern New Jersey since the previous update, with some strong storms currently active. The strongest storm is near SW Union county and is moving ENE. This storm will affect Hudson county and Manhattan over the next 1/2 hour. Another strong storm is still slowly moving NNE along the Bergen/west Passaic border. Otherwise, several weaker storms are active in northern NJ.

**A short term outlook was posted to the left, showing the current location of storms and their forecast tracks. Click on the image to view it in a larger size.**



1:25 PM: As mentioned with last night's update, thunderstorms in eastern Pennsylvania consolidated into an area of heavy rain and thunderstorms as they moved into New Jersey, bringing heavy rain to parts of the area early this morning. I underestimated the rainfall amounts in last night's update, however, as most of northern New Jersey received amounts from 3/4 to as much as 2 inches of rain. Most of Long Island and southern Connecticut saw 1/2 to 1 inch of rain, but western Suffolk and Nassau counties in Long Island missed most of the rain, with amounts less than 1/4 inch.

The storms that affected the area early this morning are now east of Long Island, as shown on the radar image to the left. Meanwhile, as a low pressure is moving near the area, thunderstorms are developing especially over NE Pennsylvania and SE New York, capable of producing heavy rainfall and small hail. These storms are almost stationary, very slowly drifting to the NNE. As a result, flash flooding is possible in places that are affected by these storms.


Short Term Forecast: There are several storms currently affecting the area. The main storm is near northern Somerset county, and is slowly drifting NNE, slowly moving towards eastern Morris and western Essex counties. Another storm is near West Passaic county, and will move NE along the border between Rockland/Orange counties. Another weak cell is developing near Jersey city, and will move through Hudson and eastern Bergen counties. In addition, strong thunderstorms are currently entering Sussex county, and will be capable of bringing heavy rain, small hail and gusty winds.

June 16, 2011: Rain Tonight, Tomorrow

**Reminder: Full discussions will be posted daily starting tomorrow. The 5-Day Forecast page will be updated for the entire area as well, and will be updated daily starting tomorrow. The 2011 Atlantic hurricane outlook and a preview of this summer will be posted early next week as well.**

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Tonight - Tomorrow: Rain, Possibly Heavy

Looking at the latest radar, thunderstorms are approaching New Jersey from eastern Pennsylvania and eastern Maryland. These storms will continue to move ENE, reaching the area later tonight. While it is still uncertain exactly what these storms do, the overall idea is there for these storms to reach the area tonight, bringing the potential for locally heavy rainfall. The NAM is the wettest model, showing slightly over 1 inch of rain, which at this time is a wet outlier. Rainfall amounts generally up to 1/4 inch are expected in places that are affected by these storms, but locally higher amounts up to 1/2 inch are possible.

A low pressure will approach the area tomorrow, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms into the Northeast, focusing over New Jersey. These storms will not be severe, but will be capable of producing locally heavy rain, with amounts locally up to 1 inch possible. These storms will weaken by the evening hours while becoming more isolated.


Weekend Outlook:

Saturday will be the nicest day this weekend. With partly cloudy skies and the risk of an isolated shower, high temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 70s in Long Island/southern Connecticut and the upper 70s to mid 80s from NYC and further west along with a WSW wind.

By Sunday, however, rain returns into the forecast. A weak low pressure to the south of the area will move east, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area along with colder temperatures, likely reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s in NYC. The NAM and GGEM show heavy rain on Sunday, with high temperatures staying below the 70 degree mark, but at this time, I am considering both solutions as likely wet outliers, and went with a drier scenario. It is still a possibility that the wetter scenarios verify, but at this time this solution is unlikely.


Next Week: Warming Up, Hot And Stormy End

On Monday and Tuesday, widespread heat is expected in the central United States, but a high pressure offshore will prevent the heat from reaching the area at first. Monday and Tuesday will both bring mostly sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s across the area. By Wednesday, however, as the main low pressure moved towards the Great Lakes, the warm front will begin to move towards the area, pushing the warmth into parts of the Mid Atlantic. There are still minor timing differences with the models, but at this time, Thursday appears to be the warmest day, when parts of the area may potentially reach the 90s once again, with upper 80s expected otherwise. The cold front is expected to move through around Thursday/Friday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms, and with this type of set up, severe weather may be a possibility. Stay tuned for more information on this time frame.


Tropics: Signs Of Activity In Atlantic, Pacific


Atlantic: At this time, the Atlantic Ocean is quiet, but the GFS model continues to hint at potential tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico late next week. Most models do not show this feature, but it is possible that activity begins to pick up by the last few days of June.

Pacific: After last week's powerful Hurricane Adrian, another tropical disturbance in the eastern Pacific may become a tropical system. Invest 92 was activated today south of Guatemala. This invest is under a favorable environment, with little to no dry air, low shear, and high sea surface temperatures (SSTs). For the short term, development will likely be slow as this invest is still disorganized, but by next week, it is possible that this invest may develop into the second named storm of the East Pacific hurricane season.

June 15, 2011 Brief Update

Forecast Overview:

- Tomorrow will bring mostly sunny skies once again with highs similar to today, but by Friday, a low pressure will approach the area, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Rain will begin on Thursday night and will continue occasionally throughout the day on Friday. No severe weather is expected at this time.

- Other than the potential for an isolated storm on Saturday, this weekend will be mainly dry. Partly sunny skies are expected with temperatures reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area, with a few upper 80s possible on Sunday in the immediate NYC area. The NAM/GGEM models have been indicating that an area of rain and thunderstorms moves through on Sunday, and while at this time, this solution has little support, it will be watched in case it becomes a new trend. A colder air mass behind Friday's storm will move into the region, and while it will not bring a large difference in temperatures, it will bring colder temperatures by Monday, with highs dropping into the lower 80s in the immediate NYC area.

- Significant heat will begin to build up in the southern/central US from Sunday into early next week. This ridge will spread into the region eventually, but will be delayed at first as Friday's storm moves into SE Canada, bringing a colder air mass into the NE for the weekend through early next week as previously mentioned, keeping the ridge stuck in the central US. By at least Wednesday, when the low pressure will move towards the Great Lakes, the heat will be able to spread into the area. While the worst of the heat should stay to the west of the area, temperatures may return into the 90s once again in the warmer case scenario on Wednesday and/or Thursday. The cold front should reach the area late next week, bringing a risk of thunderstorms. More information will be posted as details become clearer.

**No update posted 6/14/11**

No update was posted tonight. The next update will be posted tomorrow, with more information on this weekend's rain and the potential for more significant warmth by the middle of next week. Starting on Friday, daily full updates will be posted, including daily updates in the 5-Day Forecast page.

June 13, 2011 Brief Update

Forecast Overview:

- Mostly cloudy skies along with scattered showers are expected tomorrow across the area. Temperatures will be chilly for this time of the year, only reaching the lower to mid 60s across the area with a NE wind. Some places in interior southern Connecticut may fail to reach the 60 degree mark.

- Wednesday and Thursday will bring warmer temperatures, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west while slowly warming up further east, reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday and the mid to upper 70s on Thursday. Both days will be dry.

- A low pressure will move towards the area on Friday, bringing showers and thunderstorms to the area on Friday and Saturday. The exact track of this low pressure is uncertain, and some models try to develop it into a nor'easter-like coastal low which at this time is unlikely, but both days will bring slightly cooler temperatures, mostly in the 70s, with rain chances. More information will be posted on this over the next several days.

- Temperatures will warm up back into the 80s by Sunday and Monday, and there are indications that more significant warmth may return by early-mid next week. More information will be posted on this potential over the next several days as well.

June 12, 2011 Morning Update

12 PM: Colder Than Previously Expected Today

Storms in Pennsylvania moved into the area yesterday evening, but failed to produce any widespread precipitation across the area, with most of the rain staying to the north and south of NYC. The warm front was expected to move through the area last night, but the warm front unexpectedly failed to move through, and instead even went further south, reaching southern NJ as a cold front. This will keep chilly temperatures across the area today once again.

An ENE wind is expected to transition into a SSE wind later today, with mainly cloudy skies and occasional breaks in the cloud cover, especially southwest of NYC. High temperatures will be in the lower to upper 60s in Long Island and southern Connecticut, and in the upper 60s to mid 70s from NYC and further west. Some thunderstorms may approach the area late this evening, but they will weaken once moving into New Jersey as they reach the stable air mass, as yesterday's storms did, and it is possible that they may dissipate by the time that they reach NYC, with the best risk of thunderstorms today west of NYC, towards western NJ.



Next Week: Colder temperatures will stick around through next week. Monday will be one of the warmer days of the week, with high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 70s across most of the area and mid to upper 70s in the immediate NYC area under partly cloudy skies. An isolated shower or two may be possible, but most of the day will stay dry.


By Tuesday, more clouds and rain return into the forecast. A cut off low stuck off the coast of New England will keep a cool air mass in place, with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers expected in the area. High temperatures will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the area, with the coldest temperatures further northeast into southern CT, and the warmest temperatures near NYC.


Wednesday and Thursday will be slightly warmer and drier. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Wednesday, with lower 80s expected to return into the immediate NYC area by Thursday. There is uncertainty with the exact scenario on Friday and Saturday, but it appears that a low pressure should approach the area, bringing more rain chances. Stay tuned for another update tomorrow discussing the longer range.

June 11, 2011 Morning Update

8:15 AM: An unexpected area of heavy rain and thunderstorms affected parts of the area early this morning, with radar estimates showing a general 1/2 to 1 inch of rain from north central NJ and further ENE into NYC and southwestern Connecticut. Currently, the area is seeing scattered showers, some of them producing heavy rain, but there is no widespread rain covering the area yet, with an area of heavy rain in eastern Pennsylvania weakening as it is moving towards the PA/NJ border.

With the warm front mostly to the south of the area, today will bring chilly temperatures compared to the average and much colder temperatures compared to what we've seen over the last several days. An east/ESE wind is expected, which will bring temperatures only into the lower to mid 70s for NYC and northern NJ and into the mid 60s to lower 70s for SE NY, Long Island and southern Connecticut. Occasional showers are expected today, some of them producing locally heavy rainfall.


Tonight: More rain is expected to affect the area tonight as the warm front struggles to move through. A high pressure in New England will prevent the warm front from completely moving through, with temperatures early tonight stuck in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area, but later tonight, as the high pressure in New England shifts east, the warm front will be able to lift through NYC and northern NJ, though it may fail to reach parts of Long Island and southern Connecticut.


Tomorrow: With northern NJ in the warm sector of the storm, temperatures tomorrow morning will begin to rise with a SW wind, with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s. Meanwhile, Long Island and southern Connecticut will see lower temperatures, reaching the lower to mid 70s, with a few upper 70s possible in western Long Island/SW CT. The cold front will move through around the late afternoon/evening hours, and with some instability expected, there is the potential for a weak squall line to form and move through the western and central parts of the area tomorrow in the late afternoon, bringing the potential for locally heavy rain.


Stay tuned for more information later today on this storm and the outlook for next week.

**No update posted 6/10/11**

No update was posted tonight. The forecast remains unchanged from yesterday, though Monday will be warmer than previously expected, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s across the area. Occasional showers are expected tomorrow, with Sunday bringing warmer temperatures and scattered thunderstorms. The next update will be posted late on Saturday.

June 9, 2011 Evening Update

Notes:

- The next full update will be posted on Saturday, with a brief update tomorrow. Limited posting will continue through Friday, June 17, when daily full updates will resume.

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Due to technical difficulties, no detailed update was posted tonight. A brief update will be posted tomorrow afternoon, and the next full update will be posted on Saturday.

Brief forecast outline:

- Tomorrow will bring colder temperatures, back into the mid to upper 80s in the immediate NYC area, with less humidity as well. Scattered thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon and evening hours, but no severe weather is expected.

- Clouds and showers return into the area by the weekend. Saturday brings showers and some thunderstorms with highs only in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the area due to an east wind. Sunday is warmer as the cold front moves through, with scattered showers and thunderstorms along with highs reaching the lower 80s in the immediate NYC area and 70s across the rest of the area.

- Next week will start on a chilly and dry note. Monday's highs will only be in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the area, with Tuesday warming back up into the mid 70s to lower 80s. More widespread 80s are likely to return by Wednesday, with the next potential storm and cold front around next Thursday. More information will be posted as details become clearer.

June 9, 2011 Storm Updates

Below, severe weather updates will be posted on the storms affecting the area. Click on the short term outlook graphics to the right of each post to view them in a larger size.

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6:55 PM: Strong thunderstorms continue to affect Long Island, with widespread heavy rain, gusty winds, and some hail. Meanwhile, thunderstorms have popped up over New York City, with a strong thunderstorm forming near Jersey City. This storm will move into Brooklyn and southern Queens, producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. Meanwhile, widespread light to moderate rain and thunder will affect southern Connecticut, SE NY, and far northern New Jersey.


6:30 PM: There are currently several storms affecting the area. The line of storms previously in southern Connecticut is now over the Long Island Sound, and will continue to push SSE through Long Island over the next 1/2 hour, producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail.

The second storm which previously affected northern Westchester, SE Rockland and eastern Bergen counties is now near Yonkers, NY and will continue to move ESE, joining the main line of storms. Another strong storm is near Paterson and is moving east, producing hail up to 1 inch. This storm will affect central/southern Bergen county in NJ, northern Manhattan, and Bronx.


6:05 PM: **ALERT:** The storms in SE NY have changed directions. The center of the storm is now near Tappan, NY, right along the NY/NJ border, and is moving southeast. This storm is capable of producing hail up to 1.5 inch as well, with heavy rainfall and gusty winds also expected. This storm will drop southeast/SSE, moving through central/southern Westchester, Bronx, and Nassau counties over the next 1/2 hour.


5:55 PM: Several severe thunderstorms are currently approaching or affecting the area. The first storm is currnetly near northern Westchester county and is moving ESE, capable of producing up to 1.5" hail, heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. This storm will affect SW Connecticut, including Stamford, within the next hour.

Two less significant storms are currently in northwestern and north central NJ, both moving ESE as well. These storms will produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and the potential for small hail.

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5:00 PM: Moderate Risk of Severe Weather

Under mostly sunny skies and mostly WSW winds, temperatures surged well into the 90s across parts of the area, even reaching 101 degrees in Newark! Cloud cover has increased over the area, preventing temperatures from rising much more. The heat will end tonight, but this will come in the form of strong to severe thunderstorms that will affect parts of the area this evening.


Severe weather risk: Slight / Moderate

Severe weather parameters are supportive across the area, with CAPE up to 4000 and lift index up to -10. While the parameters may indicate that the area will see a moderate risk of severe weather, and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the area under a moderate risk, places from NYC and further west are looking at a lower risk of severe weather. Looking through current observations, storms in southeastern NY are consolidating into an area of severe thunderstorms. When this happens, areas to the south of the consolidated area of storms may see less activity, and in this case, the NYC area is to the south of these storms. This can be seen in Orange county, NY, where previously severe thunderstorms have weakened to no more than light showers and thunderstorms.


NYC Area severe risk: Considering the above, I placed a moderate risk of severe weather in New England, where severe thunderstorms are currently active. From NYC and further west, I placed a 30% risk of severe weather, as the set up still indicates that severe storms will affect the area, but despite the risk, keeping the previously mentioned points in mind, some places in the area may see less activity than other parts of the area.

The highest risk of severe weather in the NYC tri-state area is in southern Connecticut, where storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, moderate to large hail, and the potential for an isolated tornado. From NYC and further west, less activity is expected, but some severe storms will still affect the area, some of them capable of producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small to moderate hail.


Stay tuned for storm updates that will be posted throughout this evening covering these storms.

June 8: Hot, Humid, Stormy Thursday

The second day of the heat wave brought temperatures in the area to their warmest point so far this year, with mid 90s inland, upper 80s to mid 90s in Long Island/southern Connecticut, and mid to upper 90s in the immediate NYC area. Teterboro airport in Bergen county even reached 100 degrees! Tomorrow will bring even hotter temperatures into the area, but relief is on the way, as a cold front will bring much cooler temperatures and scattered showers and thunderstorms for this weekend.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be the hottest day of this heat wave, and perhaps the hottest day of the year. With 850 mb temperatures near 20-21c, a west wind, and mostly sunny skies, temperatures will quickly warm up through the morning, already reaching the lower 90s in the immediate NYC area by 10 AM.

Temperatures will continue to warm up, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s across most of the area, even into central/northern Long Island. The west wind will limit the sea breeze influence, with most of southern Long Island in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The hottest temperatures will be in the immediate NYC area, where widespread upper 90s are expected, and some places in NE NJ will reach the 100 degree mark. With dew points in the mid to upper 60s, the heat index may get as high as 103-105 degrees in the immediate NYC area.

The cold front will approach the area, and while the front itself will not move through until Friday, scattered thunderstorms are expected to reach the area tomorrow evening. Some of these storms will be severe, capable of producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and hail.

Friday and weekend outlook:

With the cold front moving through on Friday, there is a risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms once again. Severe weather risk in the area, if any, is uncertain, but it is unlikely to be a big risk, and the best risk of severe weather will stay to the south of the area. High temperatures will cool down back into the 80s across most of the area, with mid 80s in the immediate NYC area.

There are larger differences with the models by the weekend, but consensus is there for occasional showers and thunderstorms to affect the area with much cooler temperatures, only reaching the mid to upper 70s across most of the area. Drier conditions will likely return by early next week.