Note: The 5-Day Forecast will be posted tomorrow in the early morning. Storm updates may be posted tomorrow morning and afternoon, but otherwise, the next full update will be posted on Saturday night.
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The area saw its fourth consecutive day of heat as temperatures surged into the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, lower to mid 90s in most of the immediate NYC area, and mostly in the mid 80s to lower 90s across Long Island and southern Connecticut. Earlier this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms formed in the southern half of New York City and moved east through southern Long Island, but otherwise, most of the area stayed dry.
Since my discussion three days ago about the potential for the models to trend towards adding a feature to block the heat from easily spreading in, the models trended towards a low pressure moving towards Nova Scotia/Newfoundland and Greenland during the weekend, shortening the heat to a 2 day time frame, around Monday and Tuesday. As the low pressure will develop near the region tomorrow, however, this trend put the area under the risk of locally heavy rainfall tomorrow and tomorrow night, with occasional showers and thunderstorms bringing the potential for rain totals locally as high as 1 to 2 inches of rain.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
As previously mentioned, a low pressure will begin to develop near the region tomorrow, which will later on become a stronger storm moving towards Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. This low pressure will not be very organized yet tomorrow, but it will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, which will be capable of producing locally heavy rain with precipitable water values near 2 inches. It is possible that some places in the tri-state area may fail to see rain, but at this time, the coverage area of the rain is expected to be widespread enough to affect at least most of the area. Due to the cloud cover and rain, tomorrow will bring cooler temperatures, peaking in the mid 70s to lower 80s across the area. Storm updates may be posted tomorrow in the morning and afternoon hours.
Weekend To Early Next Week: Warming Up
A few days ago, on July 4th, the models were expecting a transition to a positive NAO with a large surge of heat spreading into the region. My update that afternoon mentioned that the models have done the same for this week and ended up trending towards a negative NAO and a low pressure near the Davis Strait, keeping any heat surge relatively weak and preventing it from becoming sustained. We are seeing the models repeating this trend, as the latest consensus is there for the low pressure which will form near the region tomorrow to move towards Newfoundland and then towards Greenland. While it is unlikely to move into the Davis Strait as the last few storms in that region have done, a negative NAO will persist, and is expected to remain mostly negative or neutral through mid July.
With the storm moving into the Newfoundland/Greenland region, the entrance of the heat into the region will be delayed, with lower 90s expected to make an appearance in parts of the area on Monday and potentially Tuesday. Mid to upper 80s are expected from NYC and further west on Sunday, with parts of NE NJ potentially reaching the 90 degree mark. With a high pressure nearby, mostly sunny skies are expected for Sunday and Monday.
By Tuesday, a storm moving from west to east through southern Canada will bring an end to the short lasting surge of heat. The cold front will move through around Tuesday, and while the exact timing is still uncertain, there is the potential for thunderstorms with this cold front, especially around Monday night and potentially on Tuesday if the cold front slows down from the current expectation.
Longer Range: Cool Down, Then Warming Up
Behind the front, the pattern we are currently under will repeat itself once again, as the models have trended away from the original idea of a longer lasting heat spell lasting through next week and now show a trough moving into the region. This will not bring a much colder air mass, but temperatures are expected to cool down into at least the upper 70s to mid 80s through mid-late next week with mainly sunny skies. There are indications that the area may warm up once again by next weekend, but the specific details cannot be nailed down yet as this is still in the longer range. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
**No Update Posted 7/6/11**
Thursday morning, July 7, 2011:
Due to technical difficulties, no update was posted last night. I am currently working on a detailed update which will be posted this afternoon, discussing widespread thunderstorms on Friday and Friday night, the return of hot temperatures on Monday and Tuesday early next week, and what may follow in the longer range.
Due to technical difficulties, no update was posted last night. I am currently working on a detailed update which will be posted this afternoon, discussing widespread thunderstorms on Friday and Friday night, the return of hot temperatures on Monday and Tuesday early next week, and what may follow in the longer range.
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
July 5, 2011 Brief Update
The 5-Day Forecast page was updated today for the immediate NYC area and the interior areas. The forecast for Long Island and southern Connecticut will be completed and posted by tomorrow morning.
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Wednesday And Thursday: Heat Continues
A weak low pressure moving through the Northeast will help keep the heat in place through tomorrow and Thursday. Tomorrow will be the hottest day, with a warm southwest wind bringing temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s across most of the area with a few mid 90s in the immediate NYC area. Long Island will be the coolest spot, with high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s further south/east to the upper 80s further north/west and closer to NYC.
A cold front will move through the region, but unlike yesterday's expectation, the cold front is now expected to be mostly dry when it reaches the area. Isolated thunderstorms are expected, some of them producing locally heavy rainfall, but they will not be as widespread or as heavy as Sunday's storms. As a result, Thursday's temperatures were raised with less cloud cover in the forecast, with temperatures now expected to end up similar to those of Wednesday, if not slightly cooler.
Friday And Beyond: Slightly Cooler, Then Warm Again
Behind the cold front, a cooler air mass will move into the region for Friday and Saturday, bringing high temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area for both days with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions, though an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for Friday especially south and east of NYC.
For Sunday through Tuesday, the models continue to show heat spreading into the region, but vary with the intensity and duration of the heat. As I mentioned in my post last night, a more likely scenario based on this summer's trend and pattern is one where the area slightly warms up for 2-3 days around early next week, likely somewhere in the upper 80s-mid 90s range, followed by a cold front with a cooler air mass briefly returning behind it. This is still in the longer range and could change, but at this time, this scenario is more likely than a prolonged heat wave with temperatures surging into the upper 90s. More information will be posted on this time frame as details become clearer.
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Wednesday And Thursday: Heat Continues
A weak low pressure moving through the Northeast will help keep the heat in place through tomorrow and Thursday. Tomorrow will be the hottest day, with a warm southwest wind bringing temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s across most of the area with a few mid 90s in the immediate NYC area. Long Island will be the coolest spot, with high temperatures ranging from the lower 80s further south/east to the upper 80s further north/west and closer to NYC.
A cold front will move through the region, but unlike yesterday's expectation, the cold front is now expected to be mostly dry when it reaches the area. Isolated thunderstorms are expected, some of them producing locally heavy rainfall, but they will not be as widespread or as heavy as Sunday's storms. As a result, Thursday's temperatures were raised with less cloud cover in the forecast, with temperatures now expected to end up similar to those of Wednesday, if not slightly cooler.
Friday And Beyond: Slightly Cooler, Then Warm Again
Behind the cold front, a cooler air mass will move into the region for Friday and Saturday, bringing high temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area for both days with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions, though an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for Friday especially south and east of NYC.
For Sunday through Tuesday, the models continue to show heat spreading into the region, but vary with the intensity and duration of the heat. As I mentioned in my post last night, a more likely scenario based on this summer's trend and pattern is one where the area slightly warms up for 2-3 days around early next week, likely somewhere in the upper 80s-mid 90s range, followed by a cold front with a cooler air mass briefly returning behind it. This is still in the longer range and could change, but at this time, this scenario is more likely than a prolonged heat wave with temperatures surging into the upper 90s. More information will be posted on this time frame as details become clearer.
Monday, July 4, 2011
July 4, 2011 Brief Update
The 5-Day Forecast was updated today for the immediate NYC area only. Tomorrow's update will add the rest of the area as well.
Forecast Overview For This Week:
- Temperatures similar to those of today will continue through Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday will be the hottest day, with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 90s in the immediate NYC area, potentially making this an official heat wave in Newark, which reached the lower 90s today.
- An isolated storm is possible on Wednesday afternoon/evening, but the best risk of thunderstorms will be on Thursday. As with yesterday's storms, most of these storms should stay below severe levels, but with high precipitable water values, heavy rainfall will be a risk with Thursday's storms once again. Some storms may continue into Friday.
Next Weekend Into Next Week: More Heat?
Cooler temperatures will return by Friday/Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area. By Sunday, however, the latest long range models are hinting at another surge of heat into the region. These models show a ridge covering the East with 850 mb temperatures near or over 20c spreading into the area, with the GGEM and DGEX going as far as showing a tropical cyclone not too far off the coast. The main key to this is the modeled transition of the NAO from negative to positive around July 10th, with no signs of any feature such as a trough or a cut off low pressure blocking the heat from moving in. Such a scenario would bring the potential for temperatures to reach the lower to mid 90s for several days starting around Sunday or Monday.
The scenario mentioned above is a possibility, but we have seen long range heat potentials many times so far this summer, such as this week, which have failed to live up to their potential. This week, we are seeing some heat, but the worst of the heat stayed to the west of the region as an upper level low last weekend helped to weaken the large ridge that was moving towards the area. We are seeing a -NAO along with low pressure stuck in the Davis Strait, between Greenland and Canada, and in the longer range when the GFS modeled this week's heat, the low pressure there was either too weak/too far north to have a significant impact on the region, or it was not there at all, and the NAO was modeled to be positive, not negative. The latest models do not show a low pressure near the Davis Strait in this time frame, when widespread heat covers the region, and show a transition to a +NAO as well.
It is a reasonable possibility that the bigger and longer lasting heat does reach the area, and a transition to a positive NAO is possible, but the big models that the models show once again for early next week is questionable. It is likely to warm up once again with temperatures early next week potentially ending up similar to those we are currently seeing, and a big heat spell with temperatures warming up well into the 90s cannot be ruled out as well, but especially given this year's history and trends, unless there is solid evidence for a transition to a +NAO with no feature to block the heat from spreading into the northeastern US, I'm going with a slightly more conservative scenario, expecting the heat to be weaker and shorter lasting than the models currently show, with temperatures ending up slightly above average. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range heat potential.
Forecast Overview For This Week:
- Temperatures similar to those of today will continue through Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday will be the hottest day, with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 90s in the immediate NYC area, potentially making this an official heat wave in Newark, which reached the lower 90s today.
- An isolated storm is possible on Wednesday afternoon/evening, but the best risk of thunderstorms will be on Thursday. As with yesterday's storms, most of these storms should stay below severe levels, but with high precipitable water values, heavy rainfall will be a risk with Thursday's storms once again. Some storms may continue into Friday.
Next Weekend Into Next Week: More Heat?
Cooler temperatures will return by Friday/Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area. By Sunday, however, the latest long range models are hinting at another surge of heat into the region. These models show a ridge covering the East with 850 mb temperatures near or over 20c spreading into the area, with the GGEM and DGEX going as far as showing a tropical cyclone not too far off the coast. The main key to this is the modeled transition of the NAO from negative to positive around July 10th, with no signs of any feature such as a trough or a cut off low pressure blocking the heat from moving in. Such a scenario would bring the potential for temperatures to reach the lower to mid 90s for several days starting around Sunday or Monday.
The scenario mentioned above is a possibility, but we have seen long range heat potentials many times so far this summer, such as this week, which have failed to live up to their potential. This week, we are seeing some heat, but the worst of the heat stayed to the west of the region as an upper level low last weekend helped to weaken the large ridge that was moving towards the area. We are seeing a -NAO along with low pressure stuck in the Davis Strait, between Greenland and Canada, and in the longer range when the GFS modeled this week's heat, the low pressure there was either too weak/too far north to have a significant impact on the region, or it was not there at all, and the NAO was modeled to be positive, not negative. The latest models do not show a low pressure near the Davis Strait in this time frame, when widespread heat covers the region, and show a transition to a +NAO as well.
It is a reasonable possibility that the bigger and longer lasting heat does reach the area, and a transition to a positive NAO is possible, but the big models that the models show once again for early next week is questionable. It is likely to warm up once again with temperatures early next week potentially ending up similar to those we are currently seeing, and a big heat spell with temperatures warming up well into the 90s cannot be ruled out as well, but especially given this year's history and trends, unless there is solid evidence for a transition to a +NAO with no feature to block the heat from spreading into the northeastern US, I'm going with a slightly more conservative scenario, expecting the heat to be weaker and shorter lasting than the models currently show, with temperatures ending up slightly above average. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range heat potential.
Sunday, July 3, 2011
July 3, 2011 Storm Updates
Below, storm updates will be posted on the storms currently affecting the area.
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5:45 PM: Since this morning's heavy storms, most of the area dried up, though some storms continued to affect parts of the area through the early afternoon hours. The latest radar estimates show that a general 1/2 to 2 inches of rain fell from NYC and further west, with some places in Sussex county locally reaching 3 inches of rain. East of NYC, very little rain fell, and the rain that did fall was mostly limited to the areas closest to NYC.
It appears that this morning's storms were the peak of today's outbreak. There are some scattered thunderstorms in NE PA and SE NY moving towards the area, and while not all of the area will be affected by these storms, they will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, especially north and west of NYC.
The next update is likely to be posted tomorrow morning. If an update is posted tomorrow morning, it will briefly discuss the coming heat for tomorrow through Wednesday with parts of the immediate NYC area reaching the lower 90s, followed by a cold front on Tuesday with the potential for more thunderstorms and cooler temperatures by next weekend.
4:20 AM: The update from 2 days ago, on Friday, mentioned the potential for locally heavy rainfall with storms associated with today's cold front. Storms are developing much earlier than expected, however, as there is a line of strong thunderstorms in eastern Pennsylvania with more strong storms forming in western New Jersey. These storms were not expected to approach the area until the mid morning hours at the earliest.
Looking at the latest radar loop, the majority of the activity in the area is focusing over the western parts of the area, near Sussex, Warren, West Passaic, and Morris counties. There are widespread strong storms moving from north to south which are capable of producing heavy rainfall with flash flooding, locally producing up to 1-2 inches of rain, but the main storm has just finished crossing Sussex county and is currently near central Morris county, drifting towards the SSE.
Most of this morning's storms will stay to the north and west of NYC, though an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the immediate NYC area. Mostly dry conditions are expected by the late morning and the early afternoon hours, with temperatures warming up into the mid 70s to mid 80s across the area. By the late afternoon and evening hours, another round of heavy thunderstorms will move through the area, especially from NYC and further west, producing more locally heavy rain. Stay tuned for more storm updates throughout the day.
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5:45 PM: Since this morning's heavy storms, most of the area dried up, though some storms continued to affect parts of the area through the early afternoon hours. The latest radar estimates show that a general 1/2 to 2 inches of rain fell from NYC and further west, with some places in Sussex county locally reaching 3 inches of rain. East of NYC, very little rain fell, and the rain that did fall was mostly limited to the areas closest to NYC.It appears that this morning's storms were the peak of today's outbreak. There are some scattered thunderstorms in NE PA and SE NY moving towards the area, and while not all of the area will be affected by these storms, they will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, especially north and west of NYC.
The next update is likely to be posted tomorrow morning. If an update is posted tomorrow morning, it will briefly discuss the coming heat for tomorrow through Wednesday with parts of the immediate NYC area reaching the lower 90s, followed by a cold front on Tuesday with the potential for more thunderstorms and cooler temperatures by next weekend.
4:20 AM: The update from 2 days ago, on Friday, mentioned the potential for locally heavy rainfall with storms associated with today's cold front. Storms are developing much earlier than expected, however, as there is a line of strong thunderstorms in eastern Pennsylvania with more strong storms forming in western New Jersey. These storms were not expected to approach the area until the mid morning hours at the earliest.Looking at the latest radar loop, the majority of the activity in the area is focusing over the western parts of the area, near Sussex, Warren, West Passaic, and Morris counties. There are widespread strong storms moving from north to south which are capable of producing heavy rainfall with flash flooding, locally producing up to 1-2 inches of rain, but the main storm has just finished crossing Sussex county and is currently near central Morris county, drifting towards the SSE.
Most of this morning's storms will stay to the north and west of NYC, though an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the immediate NYC area. Mostly dry conditions are expected by the late morning and the early afternoon hours, with temperatures warming up into the mid 70s to mid 80s across the area. By the late afternoon and evening hours, another round of heavy thunderstorms will move through the area, especially from NYC and further west, producing more locally heavy rain. Stay tuned for more storm updates throughout the day.
Saturday, July 2, 2011
**No Update Posted 7/2/11**
Due to technical difficulties, no update was posted for today, though there were no major changes in the forecast since yesterday's afternoon discussion. A brief update will be posted tomorrow morning focusing on the storms for tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Friday, July 1, 2011
July 1, 2011: Storms Possible On Sunday
Note: Today's update does not include an updated 5-Day Forecast. The updated forecast will be posted early tomorrow morning.
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As a high pressure is currently covering the region, today brought dry conditions so far today once again, with temperatures once again the same as the last few days, currently in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the tri-state area. By tomorrow, a weakening ridge will move into the area, bringing warmer temperatures reaching the upper 80s in NYC, and while most days will be dry, there is a risk of strong thunderstorms on Sunday, which will be capable of producing locally heavy rain.
Weekend Outlook:
Saturday will be another dry day, but as the high pressure exits the region and a cold front near the Midwest starts to move towards the area, the current dry and mild pattern will end for now. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further west with a southwest wind, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut with a south wind.
Sunday: The ridge currently in the central US bringing a widespread heat wave well into the northern US is expected to weaken throughout the day tomorrow and Sunday, but will still bring 850 mb temperatures in the 16-20c range when it reaches the area briefly on Sunday, enough to bring temperatures into the mid to upper 80s in the immediate NYC area once again, and if there is enough sunshine through the early afternoon hours, temperatures may reach the 90 degree mark in NE NJ.
The cold front will reach the area by Sunday evening. Even though bulk shear is not supprtive for severe weather, there are decent lift index and CAPE values, enough to result in a low risk of strong thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening, especially after 2-4 PM. While at this time, these storms are more likely to be scattered than widespread, with precipitable water values expected to be near 2 inches, these storms will be capable of producing heavy rain with localized flash flooding in places that they hit. Stay tuned for more information on Sunday's storms with tomorrow morning's update.
Next Week: Warmth Continues
Behind Sunday's cold front, temperatures will slightly cool down as a slightly cooler air mass will move in. The difference in temperatures will be barely noticeable, as temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 80s across the area with a few upper 80s in the immediate NYC area. Similar temperatures are expected for Tuesday, but by Wednesday, temperatures are likely to warm up once again, reaching the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further west and in the upper 70s to mid 80s east of NYC. There is some uncertainty for mid-late next week, but at this time, it appears that these temperatures will continue through Thursday, with a cold front moving through around Thursday or Friday, followed by cooler temperatures for next weekend. Stay tuned for more information on next week.
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As a high pressure is currently covering the region, today brought dry conditions so far today once again, with temperatures once again the same as the last few days, currently in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the tri-state area. By tomorrow, a weakening ridge will move into the area, bringing warmer temperatures reaching the upper 80s in NYC, and while most days will be dry, there is a risk of strong thunderstorms on Sunday, which will be capable of producing locally heavy rain.
Weekend Outlook:
Saturday will be another dry day, but as the high pressure exits the region and a cold front near the Midwest starts to move towards the area, the current dry and mild pattern will end for now. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further west with a southwest wind, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut with a south wind.
Sunday: The ridge currently in the central US bringing a widespread heat wave well into the northern US is expected to weaken throughout the day tomorrow and Sunday, but will still bring 850 mb temperatures in the 16-20c range when it reaches the area briefly on Sunday, enough to bring temperatures into the mid to upper 80s in the immediate NYC area once again, and if there is enough sunshine through the early afternoon hours, temperatures may reach the 90 degree mark in NE NJ.
The cold front will reach the area by Sunday evening. Even though bulk shear is not supprtive for severe weather, there are decent lift index and CAPE values, enough to result in a low risk of strong thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and evening, especially after 2-4 PM. While at this time, these storms are more likely to be scattered than widespread, with precipitable water values expected to be near 2 inches, these storms will be capable of producing heavy rain with localized flash flooding in places that they hit. Stay tuned for more information on Sunday's storms with tomorrow morning's update.Next Week: Warmth Continues
Behind Sunday's cold front, temperatures will slightly cool down as a slightly cooler air mass will move in. The difference in temperatures will be barely noticeable, as temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 80s across the area with a few upper 80s in the immediate NYC area. Similar temperatures are expected for Tuesday, but by Wednesday, temperatures are likely to warm up once again, reaching the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further west and in the upper 70s to mid 80s east of NYC. There is some uncertainty for mid-late next week, but at this time, it appears that these temperatures will continue through Thursday, with a cold front moving through around Thursday or Friday, followed by cooler temperatures for next weekend. Stay tuned for more information on next week.
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