June 7, 2011 Brief Update

Heat Update:

Today brought temperatures into the lower 90s in parts of the immediate NYC area, but temperatures will only get warmer. Tomorrow will bring 850 mb temperatures near 20-21c, which combined with a WSW wind will allow temperatures to reach the 90s across most of the area. Mid to upper 90s are expected in the immediate NYC area, with Newark getting close to the 100 degree mark. The WSW wind will also allow parts of Long Island away from the southern coast to reach the lower to mid 90s, with similar temperatures expected in southern Connecticut as well.

Wednesday night will remain mild, with lows only as low as the upper 70s in NYC, already warming well into the 80s by the morning hours. Thursday will bring slightly warmer temperatures, with a few places in NE NJ potentially reaching the 100 degree mark. Humid conditions are expected as well, with a heat index up to 105 degrees possible.

The cold front will begin to move towards the area, with scattered thunderstorms, potentially severe, expected in the early overnight hours of Thursday. These storms may be capable of producing heavy rainfall, strong winds and hail. The highest risk of severe weather, however, will stay to the north of the area, with more widespread storms expected in the Northeast. Friday will bring colder temperatures, reaching the lower to upper 80s across most of the area, with the weekend bringing more clouds, high temperatures back into the 70s, and widespread thunderstorm chances. More information on the weekend will be posted with tomorrow's update.

June 6, 2011: Almost 100 Degrees Mid Week

Despite a cut off low well to the east of the region keeping a relatively chilly air mass in place, today brought more sunshine to the area, which combined with a different wind direction, helped bring warmer temperatures to the area today, reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west, with colder temperatures further east, in the mid 70s to lower 80s across Long Island and southern Connecticut.

Today is just the first day of a week long warm spell. Temperatures will warm up once again tomorrow, potentially reaching the 90 degree mark in parts of NE NJ. Wednesday and Thursday will be the hottest days of this warm spell, with a very warm air mass supporting high temperatures getting as high as the upper 90s in the immediate NYC area, with the heat index potentially getting as high as the mid 100s. The heat will end by Friday, but chances for severe weather will return.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

As a very warm air mass in the central US begins to push into the region, tomorrow will bring warmer temperatures than today. With partly sunny skies and a WSW wind expected, high temperatures will rise into the 80s across the entire area. Highs will range from the lower to mid 80s in Long Island and southern Connecticut to the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further west. It is possible that parts of NE NJ down towards Newark may reach the 90 degree mark.

Wednesday - Friday: Almost 100 Degrees

The heat will continue to spread into the region, with 850 mb temperatures reaching 20c on Wednesday. Combined with a WSW wind and mostly sunny skies, high temperatures will reach at least the mid 90s across most of northern NJ, SE NY, and NYC, with a few upper 90s possible in parts of the immediate NYC area. The WSW wind will also allow parts of Long Island away from the southern coast to see temperatures well into the 80s, with lower 90s closer to NYC. The heat index will likely reach the lower 100s in parts of the NYC area with humid conditions.

Warmth will continue through Wednesday night, as temperatures fail to drop below the 70 degree mark across parts of, if not most of the NYC area. Temperatures will already begin to rise quickly by the morning, likely to reach the lower to mid 80s by at least 8 AM.

Thursday is likely to be the hottest day of this warm spell. Mostly sunny skies, WSW winds and 850 mb temperatures near the 20c range will allow temperatures to already reach the 90s by 11 AM, peaking in the mid to upper 90s from NYC and further west. Parts of the immediate NYC area are likely to get close to the 100 degree mark, but at this time, temperatures are not expected to exceed 100 degrees. Dew points are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which will result in a heat index in the lower to mid 100s.

The cold front will be slow to move through, and will not immediately end the warmth. Scattered showers and storms are possible on Thursday night, especially west of NYC, some which could reach strong to potentially severe levels. Friday will bring slightly colder temperatures, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s from NYC and further west, but storm chances will increase. There is uncertainty with next weekend, but it appears that stormy conditions may continue, with high temperatures dropping into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Stay tuned for more information on the mid week heat and the potential storms that may follow.

June 5, 2011: Hot, Humid Conditions Return

With mostly cloudy skies over the area today along with a mostly south wind, today brought colder temperatures to the area, only reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s from NYC and further west and the mid to upper 60s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. A chilly air mass continued to stick over the region today, while heat started to build up in the southern United States. Today's chilly temperatures are the opposite of what we will be dealing with late this week, as heat from the central US spreads into the region, likely bringing temperatures well into the 90s in parts of the area on Thursday with the heat index potentially reaching the 100 degree mark.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

With the chilly air mass weakening, tomorrow will bring warmer temperatures to the area. With partly sunny skies and a north/NNW wind expected, high temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west, with lower to upper 70s expected in Long Island and southern Connecticut. There is a low risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening hours, but the best risk of showers tomorrow will stay to the northeast of the area, in central New England.


Tuesday - Friday: Heat Wave Potential

Temperatures will continue to warm up on Tuesday, with more widespread lower to mid 80s from NYC and further west. There is the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, but any precipitation should be light and scattered.

By Wednesday, however, a very large area of heat will spread into the region, bringing the second potential for this year's first heat wave in the NYC area. Yesterday's NAM runs were outliers by keeping cold stuck over the Northeast, and today's NAM has backed away from this solution, supporting the GFS by spreading warmth into the Northeast. With mostly sunny skies expected along with a SW/WSW wind, temperatures will heat up into the upper 80s to lower 90s from NYC and further west, with mid to upper 80s expected in parts of Long Island and southern Connecticut as well, especially away from the coast.

Despite 90s returning into parts of the area on Wednesday, the hottest temperatures have yet to come. A large area of 850 mb temperatures above 20c will move towards the region, and will be over the area on Thursday. Unlike the May 30-June 1 warmth, when a strong storm very far to the northwest of the area pulled in the warmth, resulting in cooler temperatures in the NYC area and the Northeast, in this scenario we are seeing a relatively weak storm not too far to the north of the area, which will allow warmth to focus on the region.

With mostly to partly sunny skies expected along with a WSW wind, temperatures will surge into the lower to mid 90s from NYC and further west, and if we don't see any significant changes with the expected set up, even upper 90s are possible in parts of the immediate NYC area. Humid conditions are expected as well, which could push the heat index into the 100s for parts of the area.

The cold front's timing is uncertain, but it appears that it will move through sometime around Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible with this cold front, and should the timing be slow enough as currently modeled, parts of the area may reach the lower 90s once again, making this an official heat wave. Temperatures will then cool down by next weekend into the lower 80s. Stay tuned for more information on the heat and potential storms late next week.

June 4, 2011: More Heat Next Week

Important Notes:

***From tomorrow through Thursday, June 16, limited updates will be posted, unless any severe weather event takes place, when more frequent updates will be posted. This does not mean that no updates will be posted, as I will continue to update the blog during this time frame, but most updates will not be in full length. Some full discussions will be posted in that time frame, but otherwise, daily full updates will resume on Friday, June 17th.***

In addition to the above, there are also changes with the long range outlooks. The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook will still be posted tomorrow, but instead of a full June outlook, a medium-long range outlook will be posted either tomorrow or later in the coming week, along with a preview of the expectation for this summer.


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After a strong cold front cleared the region on Wednesday, bringing some storms to the area and deadly tornadoes in Massachusetts, a much colder air mass moved into the area. Thursday night was not as cold as originally expected, but instead, Friday night was colder, with temperatures as low as the mid 40s inland this morning. Temperatures yesterday and today were in the lower to upper 70s across the area, with mostly sunny skies yesterday and mostly cloudy skies today.

Tomorrow will bring mainly cloudy skies again with colder temperatures due to a risk of rain, but Monday will bring drier conditions with less cloud cover. Monday and Tuesday will bring comfortable conditions to the area, but a large ridge to the west of the region will allow heat to spill into the region once again for Wednesday and Thursday, with high temperatures potentially returning into the lower to mid 90s once again for parts of the area.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Mostly cloudy skies are expected tomorrow once again. Even though most of the day is expected to be dry, scattered showers are a possibility, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s for Long Island and southern Connecticut, with lower to upper 70s from NYC and further west. A southeast wind is expected.


Next Week: Comfortable Start, Hot And Stormy Ending

Monday and Tuesday will bring slightly warmer conditions to the area once again. Partly sunny skies are expected on Monday with high temperatures returning into the upper 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west, though the risk of an isolated shower cannot be ruled out. On Tuesday, warmer conditions will return along with a southwest wind, as high temperatures climb into the lower to mid 80s for most of northern NJ, SE NY, and NYC. Again, the risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening hours cannot be ruled out.

By Wednesday, however, a very warm air mass in the central US will begin to spread into the region. This will not be a long lasting warm spell, but in the brief time frame that temperatures do warm up, they will do so significantly, reaching the 90s in parts of the area once again. There is some uncertainty with the extent of the warmth on Wednesday, with the GFS model bringing temperatures into the lower 90s from NYC and further west and the NAM keeping colder temperatures trapped over the Northeast. Both solutions may be on the extreme sides, and at this time, I am going with a solution slightly closer to the GFS than the NAM, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further west, with lower to mid 80s in parts of Long Island/southern Connecticut. Wednesday's temperatures are still uncertain, and may be raised or lowered with tomorrow's update.

On Thursday, 850 mb temperatures are modeled to reach 20 degrees celsius around the area, which on a dry sunny day, are capable of bringing surface temperatures well into the 90s. As this is still in the medium range, the expected 850 mb temperatures could change, but should there be no significant changes with the expected set up, temperatures may be capable of reaching the lower to mid 90s once again from NYC and further west on Thursday. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach the region, and while the timing is uncertain, severe weather may be a possibility for Thursday evening. Stay tuned for more information on the heat and storms for the middle of next week.

June 2, 2011 Brief Update

Tonight's update is a brief outline of this coming week posted below. **No update will be posted tomorrow, and the next update will be posted on Saturday night, June 4.**

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Cold Tonight And Tomorrow: With a very cold air mass moving into the NE along with clear skies and 850 mb temperatures near 5c in the area, even droping below 0 degrees celsius in New England, temperatures tonight will be unseasonably cold across the area. In general, low temperatures will be in the 40s away from NYC, with upper 40s to lower 50s even getting as far as the immediate north/west suburbs. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s in Long Island, and in the lower to mid 50s in NYC. Further inland, into southern CT, north central NJ and SE New York, low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s.

Tomorrow will be sunny with temperatures significantly warming up from the morning lows, but highs will still be chilly for this time of the year, reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area. A few upper 70s are possible in the immediate NYC area.


Weekend And Next Week: Temperatures will generally be in the mid 70s to lower 80s across the area this weekend, with rain possible on Sunday. Next week will bring similar temperatures as the area is stuck under a colder air mass with the heat staying to the west of the area. This is supported by a -NAO, -AO and +PNA pattern currently developing, which typically favors cold over the eastern US. The -NAO may last through at least June 10, but there are signs that temperatures may warm up by late next week.

June 1, 2011: Review Of Today's Storms, Week Ahead

This year so far has been a big severe weather producer, with deadly tornado outbreaks as well as record breaking tornado reports in the month of April. The active severe weather has affected the region as well today, bringing widespread severe weather to the Northeast, with the most notable event a deadly tornado in Springfield, Massachusetts.

The area has seen some severe weather today, but the storms failed to reach their potential, which was limited due to widespread cloud cover and areas of light rain early this afternoon spreading from a severe storm in NE Pennsylvania. Such an outcome is impossible to predict in advance, and can only be predicted through short term forecasting.The most notable storm today in the area was a severe storm in northern Morris county which produced heavy rainfall and hail. This storm collapsed before reaching the immediate NYC area, however. Some storms were also reported on Long Island.

Hot temperatures were observed in the area once again today, but this time temperatures were warmer than before. Originally, the warmest day was expected to be Monday, but today ended up as the hottest day of this heat spell. Since early last week, the potential was there for temperatures to reach the lower to mid 90s in parts of the area at the peak of the heat spell, which is what we have seen today; almost all locations from NYC and further west reached and pass the 90 degree mark, with Teterboro and Newark reporting a high of 95 degrees. Long Island and southern Connecticut saw colder temperatures, ranging from the lower 70s near the coast to the mid 80s closer to NYC, though most areas were generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s.


Thursday, Friday and Weekend:

Thursday and Friday will bring a significantly colder air mass into the region. High temperatures tomorrow and Friday will be in the lower to upper 70s across the area, with tomorrow night bringing the coldest temperatures, getting into the mid to upper 40s north and west of NYC. This is unusually chilly for this time of the year. Saturday will slightly warm up, with lower 80s possible in parts of the immediate NYC area.


Next Week: Seasonable Temperatures, Rain Possible

Starting next weekend, a pattern will develop which will last through most of next week. The heat will be stuck to the west of the region, with widespread 90s in the central and southern US, getting as far as the southern/central Mid Atlantic. Meanwhile, the NYC area as well as the Northeast will be stuck under a colder air mass as the heat fails to spread into the region. At the same time, however, there will be occasional rain chances, starting on Sunday and lasting through parts of next week. Temperatures will remain seasonable, ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s, though mid 80s may be possible on occasion. There are indications that late next week may bring warmer temperatures. Stay tuned for more information on next week.

Tropics:

This year's Atlantic hurricane season outlook will be posted on Sunday, June 5th.

The first day of summer truly felt like one in the area, with temperatures rising into the 90s for the first time this year for many places. This was not the only sign of summer, as with the first official day of the Atlantic hurricane season today, there is a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea. Development of this storm is uncertain, but the majority of the models develop this into at least a weak tropical system and bring it towards the Cuba/Jamaica/Haiti region during next week. Stay tuned for more information on this tropical disturbance.

June 1, 2011 Noon Update

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4:18 PM: The cell near northern Morris county is changing directions, and is now mostly heading towards the east. This cell is capable of producing heavy rainfall along with hail potentially up to 1 inch in diameter. This storm is headed towards central and northern Bergen county, as well as central Passaic. It is possible that this storm may begin to weaken as it reaches Bergen, as it has intensified with another storm in front of it, but that storm has dissipated and this storm may begin to weaken as well.

4:00 PM: The second cell, currently in southern Sussex county, is the first severe thunderstorm to form in the area today. This cell is currently moving ENE, and within the next hour, will affect Western Passaic, Western/northern Bergen, and southern Rockland counties with strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and small to moderate hail.

3:50 PM: Two strong thunderstorms are currently in northern Warren and southern Sussex county, and are moving ENE. These storms are capable of producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and potentially small hail. Areas that will be affected by these storms over the next hour include northern Morris, Western Passaic, NW Bergen counties in NJ, and SW Rockland county in NY.

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3:05 PM: NYC Area May Get Spared

With the area under a southwest wind today, temperatures quickly surged across the area, reaching the lower to mid 90s across the immediate NYC area with the heat index even getting near 100 degrees! Severe weather parameters are unusually high across the region, with CAPE up to 5500 and LI up to -12, and severe storms are quickly forming in the Northeast, but it appears that due to a minor issue with one of the storms in Pennsylvania, the NYC area may miss out on today's storms.

Earlier this afternoon, a severe storm developed in north central Pennsylvania, which shifted southeast towards the Allentown area. Meanwhile, clouds extending to the east of the storm spread into NE Pennsylvania, preventing storm development. As a result of this, despite the extremely high parameters, there are no storms over the area while there are widespread severe thunderstorms to the north and south of the area. Such things, unfortunately, cannot be predicted in advance, as this is not a failure in the set up. Instead, this is a result of one of the storms which developed and moved in a way that prevented storm development in the region where any storm that forms would move into the area.

If necessary, storm updates may be posted later today, but at this time, it is unlikely that anything more than clouds and an isolated thunderstorm affect the area. With the parameters in place, any storm that does form could easily become severe, but the storms won't be as strong or as widespread as those to the north of the area. The next update will be posted this evening, discussing the pattern setting up for this weekend and next week in more details.

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Additional reminder: This year's June outlook, summer outlook and the Atlantic hurricane season outlooks will all be posted on Sunday, June 5.