Note: The 5-Day Forecast page was not updated, but the forecast has not changed.
-----------------------------------------------------------
As a strong low pressure is currently sitting over the western Atlantic Ocean with an area of high pressure sliding into the area, today brought mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures once again, with little to no change from the last few days, reaching the upper 60s inland, upper 60s to mid 70s in the immediate NYC area, and upper 60s to lower 70s in the eastern parts of the area.
Tomorrow will be slightly cooler in the eastern parts of the area as the low pressure moves a little closer, but the most it will do is slightly increase cloud cover, with mostly to partly sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s persisting through the rest of this week. The long stretch of nice weather, however, will come to an end by Friday/Saturday, as another cut off low is expected to move towards the western parts of the region, likely bringing a stretch of cloudy and stormy conditions that may not be quick to exit.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
With very little change in the overall scneario, tomorrow will once again bring conditions similar to today, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s inland and lower 70s in the immediate NYC area. The storm in the western Atlantic is expected to move slightly closer to the coast, resulting in mostly cloudy skies for the eastern parts of the area, a breezy north wind and the risk of an isolated shower in eastern Long Island/SE Connecticut, which will result in colder temperatures reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s further east and the mid to upper 60s closer to NYC.
Wednesday - Friday: Comfortable Weather Continues
With the low pressure still stuck in the western Atlantic and an area of high pressure near the area, Wednesday through Friday will continue to bring mostly to partly sunny skies to the area with temperatures in the lower 60s to lower 70s in the eastern parts of the area and upper 60s to mid 70s from NYC and further west.
During this time frame, however, changes in the set up will be taking place that will help bring an end to the stretch of comfortable and dry weather. The storm in the western Atlantic will slowly weaken and drift east, away from the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a storm in the north central US will slowly move east, running into a strong high pressure in southern Canada. There is some disagreement with the models as to what this high pressure does, but at this time it appears that it may try to push into the region, which would bring a back door cold front on Friday night resulting in colder temperatures on Saturday. This scenario does not have a high confidence level yet and will be watched.
Sunday And Beyond: Clouds, Rain Return
With the western Atlantic storm drifting away, the storm affecting the western/central US with more severe weather and rain will finally be able to move east towards the region. There are still large differences with the models, with the GGEM representing the least likely scenario of a very cold air mass pushing into New England, never bringing any rain into the area. The other models are still different from each other, but most of them point to a cut off low sticking around the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes area, slowly pushing clouds and storms east through the region. As this is still a week away, the exact scenario cannot be narrowed down yet, and there may very possibly be some changes with the scenario on the models, but when looking at the overall picture, clouds and storms may spread into the area around Sunday or Monday at the latest and last through early-potentially mid next week. Stay tuned for more information on this time frame.
Monday, May 9, 2011
Sunday, May 8, 2011
May 8, 2011 Morning Update
No full update will be posted tonight, though there are some brief updates this morning:
- The forecast for this week remains the same, with mostly/partly sunny skies and highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s east of NYC and the upper 60s to mid 70s from NYC and further west from today through Thursday. The 5-Day Forecast page has been updated from NYC and further west.
- No widepread severe weather is expected across the region over the next 3 days, however some strong storms are possible in the southwestern parts of the region (SW West Virginia) on Tuesday.
- There continues to be significant uncertainy with Friday's storm, with each model showing a different scenario. The main thing that the modes agree on is that there should be a strong high pressure in south central Canada, but from there details become different with each model, with the GFS/GGEM, for example, showing the high pressure pushing southeast, forcing the storm to weaken and move SE as well. Until there is better agreement with the models on the scenario, it will be difficult to narrow down the list of possibilities and determine which one will happen, but when looking at the overall picture, there is a risk of showers and storms on Friday and/or Saturday. More information will be posted as details become clearer.
- The forecast for this week remains the same, with mostly/partly sunny skies and highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s east of NYC and the upper 60s to mid 70s from NYC and further west from today through Thursday. The 5-Day Forecast page has been updated from NYC and further west.
- No widepread severe weather is expected across the region over the next 3 days, however some strong storms are possible in the southwestern parts of the region (SW West Virginia) on Tuesday.
- There continues to be significant uncertainy with Friday's storm, with each model showing a different scenario. The main thing that the modes agree on is that there should be a strong high pressure in south central Canada, but from there details become different with each model, with the GFS/GGEM, for example, showing the high pressure pushing southeast, forcing the storm to weaken and move SE as well. Until there is better agreement with the models on the scenario, it will be difficult to narrow down the list of possibilities and determine which one will happen, but when looking at the overall picture, there is a risk of showers and storms on Friday and/or Saturday. More information will be posted as details become clearer.
Saturday, May 7, 2011
May 7, 2011: 60s, 70s to continue next week
NOTE: Due to technical difficulties, the 5-Day Forecast was not updated today, though the update is prepared and will be posted on Sunday morning.
-----------------------------------------------------------
As an area of rain south of the area brought a few showers along with partly cloudy skies, high temperatures were once again similar to yesterday's temperatures, reaching the mid to upper 60s across most of the area with lower 70s in the immediate NYC area and parts of Long Island. As this area of rain develops into a strong offshore storm which will remain stuck in the western Atlantic for the next 7 days, the temperatures the area saw today will continue through tomorrow and most of next week, with the exception of eastern Long Island/SE Connecticut which will see slightly colder temperatures due to the offshore storm. The weather pattern in the region will remain quiet until Friday, when showers and storms are possible.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
While the area of rain offshore develops into a strong storm, the area will stay away from the areas of rain. Light to moderate rain and storms are expected south of the area, in the Mid Atlantic, though other than an isolated shower, tomorrow will be dry with partly cloudy skies. High temperatures will be slightly warmer than today, reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s inland, lower to mid 70s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for Long Island and southern Connecticut. A north wind is expected.
Next Week: The outlook for next week has not changed since yesterday's outlook. The models are suggesting that the offshore storm may prevent the western storm from reaching the area on Friday, however as this is still in the longer range, details may change. Stay tuned for a brief update tomorrow morning.
-----------------------------------------------------------
As an area of rain south of the area brought a few showers along with partly cloudy skies, high temperatures were once again similar to yesterday's temperatures, reaching the mid to upper 60s across most of the area with lower 70s in the immediate NYC area and parts of Long Island. As this area of rain develops into a strong offshore storm which will remain stuck in the western Atlantic for the next 7 days, the temperatures the area saw today will continue through tomorrow and most of next week, with the exception of eastern Long Island/SE Connecticut which will see slightly colder temperatures due to the offshore storm. The weather pattern in the region will remain quiet until Friday, when showers and storms are possible.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
While the area of rain offshore develops into a strong storm, the area will stay away from the areas of rain. Light to moderate rain and storms are expected south of the area, in the Mid Atlantic, though other than an isolated shower, tomorrow will be dry with partly cloudy skies. High temperatures will be slightly warmer than today, reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s inland, lower to mid 70s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid 60s to lower 70s for Long Island and southern Connecticut. A north wind is expected.Next Week: The outlook for next week has not changed since yesterday's outlook. The models are suggesting that the offshore storm may prevent the western storm from reaching the area on Friday, however as this is still in the longer range, details may change. Stay tuned for a brief update tomorrow morning.
Friday, May 6, 2011
May 6, 2011: Mild Week Ahead
Note: This post was slightly revised on Saturday morning, 5/7, to lower the forecast temperatures for early next week.
---------------------------------------------------------------
As a cold air mass associated with a low pressure well to the north of the area left the region, a warmer air mass began moving in, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s for most of the area and the upper 60s to lower 70s in the immediate NYC area, but the morning temperatures were much colder than yesterday, with temperatures getting as low as the lower 30s in parts of Sussex/Orange counties as a result of mainly clear skies and a relatively cold air mass still around.
A weak low pressure staying well to the south of the area will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area tomorrow with similar high temperatures expected, with another area of rain staying mostly to the south of the area on Sunday with a few showers possible. As this storm stalls in the western Atlantic ocean with another storm in the western/central US crawing east very slowly, most of next week will bring partly cloudy skies and average temperatures, however the storm will finally reach the area by Friday, bringing a risk of showers and thunderstorms once again.
Weekend Outlook:
As previously mentioned, an area of showers will reach the area tomorrow, bringing the risk of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Due to low severe weather parameters, no severe weather is expected in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic tomorrow. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected, with high temperatures similar to today's temperatures, peaking in the mid to upper 60s across most of the area and the lower 70s in most of the immediate NYC area. A west wind is expected.
Isolated showers are possible again on Sunday, however the risk of rain is low at this time, and any rain shower will be light. High temperatures will be slightly warmer, expected to reach the lower to mid 70s from NYC and further west, with Newark potentially passing the 75 degree mark.
Monday - Thursday: Comfortable West Of NYC, Chilly East Of NYC
The area of rain offshore will develop into a relatively strong storm offshore. While some movement of the storm is expected, for the main part it will be stuck in the western Atlantic Ocean. Clouds and showers will spread into eastern New England, and may reach parts of the area, especially on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a high pressure will enter the western and central parts of the region, and a storm developing in the western/central US will move east very slowly, taking 3-4 days to move from the Rockies to the Midwest.
With the pattern mostly stuck in place early to mid next week, dry and comfortable conditions will continue in most of the NYC area. Monday is expected to be a nice day across the area, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s, however from Tuesday through Thursday, this will change especially east of NYC. West of NYC, mostly to partly sunny skies are expected from Tuesday through Thursday, with high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s. East of NYC, however, as the offshore storm moves close, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected along with a NNE wind and chilly temperatures, reaching the lower 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday with scattered showers possible, and the mid 50s to lower 60s for Wednesday and Thursday. Other than Tuesday, when showers will affect eastern New England with a risk of strong thunderstorms in the southwestern parts of the region (West Virginia/SW PA/western VA), the Tuesday-Thursday time frame will be mainly dry across the region.
The storm in the western US will continue to slowly move east, reaching the Midwest area by at least Thursday, though the timing could be slightly faster or slower. The GFS is indicating the potential of yet another major severe weather outbreak focusing on the central US, and this potential will be followed. The storm is expected to reach the area around Friday, and while the exact details are uncertain, howers and potentially thunderstorms are expected. More information will be posted on this storm as details become clearer.
---------------------------------------------------------------
As a cold air mass associated with a low pressure well to the north of the area left the region, a warmer air mass began moving in, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s for most of the area and the upper 60s to lower 70s in the immediate NYC area, but the morning temperatures were much colder than yesterday, with temperatures getting as low as the lower 30s in parts of Sussex/Orange counties as a result of mainly clear skies and a relatively cold air mass still around.
A weak low pressure staying well to the south of the area will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area tomorrow with similar high temperatures expected, with another area of rain staying mostly to the south of the area on Sunday with a few showers possible. As this storm stalls in the western Atlantic ocean with another storm in the western/central US crawing east very slowly, most of next week will bring partly cloudy skies and average temperatures, however the storm will finally reach the area by Friday, bringing a risk of showers and thunderstorms once again.
Weekend Outlook:
As previously mentioned, an area of showers will reach the area tomorrow, bringing the risk of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Due to low severe weather parameters, no severe weather is expected in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic tomorrow. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected, with high temperatures similar to today's temperatures, peaking in the mid to upper 60s across most of the area and the lower 70s in most of the immediate NYC area. A west wind is expected.Isolated showers are possible again on Sunday, however the risk of rain is low at this time, and any rain shower will be light. High temperatures will be slightly warmer, expected to reach the lower to mid 70s from NYC and further west, with Newark potentially passing the 75 degree mark.
Monday - Thursday: Comfortable West Of NYC, Chilly East Of NYC
The area of rain offshore will develop into a relatively strong storm offshore. While some movement of the storm is expected, for the main part it will be stuck in the western Atlantic Ocean. Clouds and showers will spread into eastern New England, and may reach parts of the area, especially on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a high pressure will enter the western and central parts of the region, and a storm developing in the western/central US will move east very slowly, taking 3-4 days to move from the Rockies to the Midwest.With the pattern mostly stuck in place early to mid next week, dry and comfortable conditions will continue in most of the NYC area. Monday is expected to be a nice day across the area, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s, however from Tuesday through Thursday, this will change especially east of NYC. West of NYC, mostly to partly sunny skies are expected from Tuesday through Thursday, with high temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s. East of NYC, however, as the offshore storm moves close, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected along with a NNE wind and chilly temperatures, reaching the lower 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday with scattered showers possible, and the mid 50s to lower 60s for Wednesday and Thursday. Other than Tuesday, when showers will affect eastern New England with a risk of strong thunderstorms in the southwestern parts of the region (West Virginia/SW PA/western VA), the Tuesday-Thursday time frame will be mainly dry across the region.
The storm in the western US will continue to slowly move east, reaching the Midwest area by at least Thursday, though the timing could be slightly faster or slower. The GFS is indicating the potential of yet another major severe weather outbreak focusing on the central US, and this potential will be followed. The storm is expected to reach the area around Friday, and while the exact details are uncertain, howers and potentially thunderstorms are expected. More information will be posted on this storm as details become clearer.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
May 5, 2011: Frost Inland Tonight
The next full update will be posted tomorrow, 5/6/11. The update will include an updated 5-Day Forecast as well.
------------------------------------------------------
Tomorrow will bring warmer temperatures, reaching the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area, though a developing weak low pressure off the coast will bring some light rain and potentially thunderstorms to the area on Friday night into Saturday morning. Mainly cloudy skies along with scattered showers are expected on Saturday, which will result in slightly colder temperatures, peaking in the lower to upper 60s across the area.
This storm is expected to intensify well offshore and stall in the western Atlantic early next week with a high pressure stuck over the area as well. Meanwhile, a storm developing over the central and western US will move east very slowly, staying over the same region from Monday to Thursday. As a result, weather conditions will be almost identical from Monday to Thursday, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s east of NYC and in the upper 60s to mid 70s from NYC and further west. There is some uncertainty with the exact timing, but the latest expectation is for the storm to finally reach the area by at least Friday. More information on this will be posted tomorrow.
Monday, May 2, 2011
May 2, 2011: Warmth Returns Briefly Tomorrow
Note: The 5-Day Forecast was not updated tonight and will not be updated until Friday. A few brief updates will be posted this week, especially tomorrow concerning severe weather for parts of the region, though full updates will resume on Friday, 5/6. Regular daily discussions/updates will continue next week.
--------------------------------------------------------------
As a cold front slowly approached the area today from the west, today brought mainly cloudy skies to the area, though the rain is still to the west of the area, and by the time it gets into the NYC area, it should be nothing more than an area of light to moderate rain and thunderstorms producing up to 1/4 inch or less. This storm, however, will help bring in much warmer temperatures for tomorrow, reaching the lower 80s in parts of the immediate NYC area, and resulting in an enhanced risk of severe weather in places such as Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
Tomorrow and Wednesday: Warm, Then Stormy
The cold front slowly moving towards the area is expected to stall, with a wave of low pressure then moving northeast. Today, there is a high confidence level in the forecast scenario, however it was difficult to forecast the storm over the last four days, with the models going through significant changes that were very difficult to predict in advance. Originally, the GFS model showed a coastal low with snow in parts of the region, which was almost immediately ruled out as an outlier with signs pointing towards a west trend, but the extent of this trend was unclear until it has actually taken place.
Almost all models showed the storm becoming a cut off low and stalling near the area for at least 2 days as a strong storm, bringing cold temperatures and heavy rain for the region, however the NAM was the only model that did not show this, siding with a storm tracking well west of the area and not stalling it as a strong storm. The NAM sometimes tends to be too strong and too far west in its longer range, however in this case, while not correct with its exact solution, it did perform better than the other models, which yesterday locked on a track west of the area, through Pennsylvania, and only showed the storm briefly stalling over the northernmost parts of the region.
Tomorrow's Warmth/Storms:
Even after locking on the track, there continued to be adjustments with the front's placement, which originally was supposed to stall near or at least just north of NYC. Yesterday's models, however, trended much more north with the front than originally anticipated, with the area expected to be well into the warm sector, which will bring a much warmer air mass. The main limiting factor to how warm NYC and locations further east will get is a SSE/SE wind which will bring lower 70s at most to parts of northern Island and 60s for the rest of LI/southern Connecticut with the exception of the immediate coast, though northern NJ and interior SE NY are expected to reach the lower to upper 70s, and a few places in the immediate NYC area, especially near and just west of NYC, are capable of reaching the lower 80s.
With the storm tracking west of the area, severe weather is a risk for parts of the region. This risk was first introduced two days ago as it became apparent that the storm would track west of the area, and increased over the last two days. The models are showing decent CAPE and Lift Index amounts in the western parts of the region, along with supportive EHI and bulk shear values, which will result in an enhanced 15% risk, potentially a 30% risk of severe weather focusing on southern/SW Pennsylvania, NW Virginia, and northern West Virginia. As these storms move east, however, they are expected to weaken, with nothing more than light to moderate rain and non-severe thunderstorms affecting the area on Tuesday night, with up to at least 1/4 inch or less, and a few showers on Wednesday.
Longer Range: Dry conditions are expected for Thursday and Friday with partly to mostly cloudy skies, temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s, and a risk of isolated showers as the storm cuts off and stalls well north of the area. The next storm is expected to affect the area around the Sunday/Monday time frame. At this time, the models are once again showing a coastal storm, and while given the scenario, a coastal low would be more likely than an inland storm compared to tomorrow's storm, I will continue to follow the models and the overall scenario for any changes, given that this is still in the longer range. More information will be posted as details become clearer.
Sunday, May 1, 2011
May 1, 2011: Warm Tuesday, Stormy Wednesday
Note: The 5-day forecast was updated through Wednesday for the immediate NYC area only.
-----------------------------------------------------
The area saw mostly sunny skies today with mild temperatures once again, reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s inland, mid to upper 60s in the immediate NYC area, and the eastern parts of the area managed to briefly lower to mid 60s before sea breeze knocked the temperatures down into the 50s and upper 40s. An area of clouds and rain approached from the west in Pennsylvania this afternoon, but the high pressure in place blocked the rain from entering the area and caused it to simply dissipate in Pennsylvania. This area of rain was associated with a slow moving cold front that is currently bringing yet another severe weather outbreak to the South but not in the hardest hit areas from Wednesday's outbreak.
While today's high pressure blocked the rain and clouds, this will not be the story over the next few days as the high pressure shifts east. The front will slowly move east, bringing showers and thunderstorms for the region tomorrow and on Tuesday staying mostly west of NYC, with a wave developing along the front finally pushing the front through on Wednesday. Behind this front, dry and warmer conditions will return, however this also won't last for long as yet another storm approaches for the weekend.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
With the high pressure sliding offshore, tomorrow will bring mainly cloudy skies from NYC and further west with increasing clouds east of NYC. The front will be very slow to move east, and as a result, most of the rain will stay west of the area, though a few showers could still affect places west of NYC. An onshore SSE wind will keep chilly temperatures in place east of NYC, reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s for Long Island and southern Connecticut, with northern NJ and NYC expected to reach the lower to mid 60s.
Tuesday - Wednesday: Warmth, Then Storms
Yesterday, I mentioned that the NAM was a western outlier in terms of the track, with the GGEM and GFS further east but still sided with an inland track. Today's NAM did shift slightly east with the GGEM and GFS shifting further west, however the front, which was expected to stall over the area, is now expected to lift north of the area, bringing warmth into parts of the area. The eastern parts of the area will see cooler temperatures again with the influence of an onshore wind, reaching the 50s and 60s, though NYC and northern NJ are expected to reach the lower to mid 70s. While unlikely at this time, a few upper 70s cannot be ruled out in Newark.
Overnight, the cold front will finally move through the area, however it is expected to be a relatively dry frontal passage, with the trend being for an increasingly drier passage. In the 5-Day Forecast, I mentioned showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday night, though rainfall amounts are expected to end up between 1/4 to 1/2 inch at most.
-----------------------------------------------------
The area saw mostly sunny skies today with mild temperatures once again, reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s inland, mid to upper 60s in the immediate NYC area, and the eastern parts of the area managed to briefly lower to mid 60s before sea breeze knocked the temperatures down into the 50s and upper 40s. An area of clouds and rain approached from the west in Pennsylvania this afternoon, but the high pressure in place blocked the rain from entering the area and caused it to simply dissipate in Pennsylvania. This area of rain was associated with a slow moving cold front that is currently bringing yet another severe weather outbreak to the South but not in the hardest hit areas from Wednesday's outbreak.
While today's high pressure blocked the rain and clouds, this will not be the story over the next few days as the high pressure shifts east. The front will slowly move east, bringing showers and thunderstorms for the region tomorrow and on Tuesday staying mostly west of NYC, with a wave developing along the front finally pushing the front through on Wednesday. Behind this front, dry and warmer conditions will return, however this also won't last for long as yet another storm approaches for the weekend.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
With the high pressure sliding offshore, tomorrow will bring mainly cloudy skies from NYC and further west with increasing clouds east of NYC. The front will be very slow to move east, and as a result, most of the rain will stay west of the area, though a few showers could still affect places west of NYC. An onshore SSE wind will keep chilly temperatures in place east of NYC, reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s for Long Island and southern Connecticut, with northern NJ and NYC expected to reach the lower to mid 60s.
Tuesday - Wednesday: Warmth, Then Storms
Yesterday, I mentioned that the NAM was a western outlier in terms of the track, with the GGEM and GFS further east but still sided with an inland track. Today's NAM did shift slightly east with the GGEM and GFS shifting further west, however the front, which was expected to stall over the area, is now expected to lift north of the area, bringing warmth into parts of the area. The eastern parts of the area will see cooler temperatures again with the influence of an onshore wind, reaching the 50s and 60s, though NYC and northern NJ are expected to reach the lower to mid 70s. While unlikely at this time, a few upper 70s cannot be ruled out in Newark.
Overnight, the cold front will finally move through the area, however it is expected to be a relatively dry frontal passage, with the trend being for an increasingly drier passage. In the 5-Day Forecast, I mentioned showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday night, though rainfall amounts are expected to end up between 1/4 to 1/2 inch at most.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)