June 6: Dangerous Storms Today

10 AM Update: Current Observations And Today's Forecast

It is currently cloudy across the area, and some places north of New York City are also seeing light rain and thunderstorms. This is due to a large area of rain and thunderstorms to our north ahead of the low pressure, that is currently weakening. This area of clouds and rain is currently preventing the northern Mid Atlantic and the Northeast from destabilizing, which is an important factor in determining today's risk for severe weather.

Looking at the latest satellite, breaks in the clouds are currently forming to our west and should approach the area later this morning, leading to some sunshine, and allowing for the atmosphere to destabilize and for temperatures to rise into the 80s with humid conditions, which should set the stage for this afternoon. If there is enough sunshine, some places southwest of NYC may reach the lower 90s.

Later this afternoon, the cold front should approach the area. Due to high wind shear, along with relatively high CAPE and LI values, conditions ahead of this cold front will be favorable for severe thunderstorms to form and intensify while approaching the area. The main risk today will be for damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes, with other risks including hail, heavy rain and frequent lightning. With the potential for dangerous storms, it is important today to follow the short term weather and take cover should a severe thunderstorm approach.

For the probabilities today, I decided to issue a moderate risk, the first one of the year. Along with it, I included the area in a 5% tornado risk area, 15% hail risk, and 45% risk for damaging wind gusts. The SPC also issued a moderate risk, being the first time we have had such a high probability for severe weather since 2008.

June 5 Storm Updates

Brief updates on today's storms are going to be posted below, as well as an overall view of what is happening across the region.

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4:43 PM: Thunderstorms are already starting to form in the interior Northeast, where a tornado watch has been posted by the SPC. Thunderstorms are also starting to form in north-central Pennsylvania, which may approach our area later this evening. More updates will be posted once the storms reach the area.

7:03 PM Update:

Despite today originally showing signs of at least some thunderstorms, it appears that no strong to severe thunderstorms are going to affect the area into tonight. In my update this morning, I did mention the possibility that storms do not affect the area, and this now appears to be the case, as the closest storms are in northern Pennsylvania and do not appear to be moving SE towards the area. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are still possible tonight, however the main activity tonight should stay to our south, with an area of heavy rain currently moving into southern Pennsylvania and Maryland.

Tomorrow still appears to be more favorable than today for severe weather, however considering that the last few severe weather outbreaks did not live up to their potential, nothing is certain yet regarding tomorrow's strong/severe thunderstorm possibility. If any storms should approach the area, updates will be posted tomorrow, otherwise the regular daily discussion will be posted.

June 5: Strong To Severe Storms Today, Tomorrow

This weekend is expected to be quite active, with strong to severe thunderstorms possible both today and Sunday, being more likely on Sunday. Below, I will post my Day 1 and Day 2 severe weather outlooks as well as a brief update on next week's weather. If needed, storm updates will be posted today and tomorrow.

Today's Outlook:

As I have mentioned yesterday, the greatest risk for strong to severe thunderstorms today should be in New England, including Connecticut, along with western Pennsylvania and West Virginia, where I placed a 15% risk. In addition, a higher risk for activity is also possible in the Washington DC area. For our area, there is the risk for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, however the worst of the storms should stay to our north.

The factors for severe weather are slightly more supportive than they were in previous outbreaks, including CAPE between 1000 and 1500, LI between -2 and -4, and wind shear between 30 and 40 knots. The more detailed short range models keep our area dry through tonight, and while scattered thunderstorms are possible today, it is also very possible that the whole day stays dry with only an isolated thunderstorm or two, as the activity stays to our north. The main risk today in thunderstorms for the area should be strong wind gusts, and further north in New England, there is the possibility of isolated tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and hail.











Sunday's Outlook:

Sunday appears to have a much better chance for severe weather, and if the current outlook verifies, this may be one of the most active severe weather days so far this year. A strong low pressure is going to stay to our north, in central interior New York, keeping our area in the warm sector, and along with a warm south to southwest wind, high temperatures are going to rise into the mid to upper 80s for the immediate NYC area, and in the lower to mid 80s inland. If there is enough sunshine early on in the day, some places may reach the lower 90s once again.

Along with the area being in the warm sector, a severe weather risk is also in place. Parameters for tomorrow are supportive of severe weather, especially with wind shear between 50 and 70 knots, CAPE between 1000 and 2000, and LI between -3 and -5. Looking at these parameters, along with the models, it appears likely that a line of strong to severe thunderstorms, possibly in the form of a derecho, should move through tomorrow afternoon. The biggest risk with tomorrow's storms should be damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes, with other risks being heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

For now, I placed a 30% risk over the central and eastern parts of the area for tomorrow, and while I have a slight risk in place, it is a possibility that a moderate risk may be needed for tomorrow.












Next Week Update:

The outlook for early next week remains the same, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Low temperatures should be in the 50s away from the immediate coast.

By the middle of next week, a disturbance approaches the area from the west, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and possibly Thursday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. By Friday, however, a warmer air mass should return to the area, with high temperatures returning into the 80s once again by next weekend.

June 4: Warm, Stormy Weekend Ahead

The warmth continued across the area today, with some places seeing their third consecutive day with high temperatures near or over 90 degrees. My severe weather risk for today ended up being too low for the region, as thunderstorms did form today in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, though most of the storms dissipated before reaching the area. While the storms did not reach our area today, we will not be as lucky during this weekend.


Short Term Forecast: An area of strong thunderstorms from Pennsylvania is approaching the western parts of the area, and could reach the eastern parts of the area overnight. While these storms are likely to weaken by the time that they reach the area, they may still be capable of producing strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain.



Tomorrow's Outlook:

As with the past few days, the very warm temperatures should continue tomorrow, with high temperatures in the upper 80s with a few lower 90s inland, and in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the immediate NYC area. Long Island and S CT should be in the mid to upper 80s, with the immediate coast slightly colder, near 80 degrees.

The thunderstorm potential tomorrow, however, is uncertain. While previous model runs were more supportive of severe thunderstorms, the latest models shift the focus of tomorrow's severe weather to the interior Northeast. Despite the main risk staying to our north, this does not mean that there won't be thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms are still possible over the area tomorrow, and some storms still have the potential to become strong or severe, leading to a 10% risk over the area in my Day 2 severe weather outlook, which can be found in the Sever Weather/Tropical page.

Sunday's Outlook: Storm Chances Increasing

Instead of Saturday, the attention now turns to Sunday for severe thunderstorm potential. While yesterday, the models showed an intense low pressure for this time of the year moving near our area, bringing a chilly heavy rain, they have now trended north, placing our area in the warm sector, and along with that, in the severe storm potential area. While the exact location of the storm is still uncertain, temperatures have the potential to reach the upper 80s once again if there is enough sunshine early on.

By Sunday afternoon and evening, the latest models show the cold front moving through the area, and along with many factors for severe weather in place, including wind shear between 50 and 70 knots, CAPE between 1000 and 2000, and LI between -3 and -5, this would bring the potential of widespread strong to severe thunderstorms for the area. As I have previously mentioned, there is still some uncertainty, and the storm may still end up further south which would greatly reduce the severe weather chance, however there is growing confidence that Sunday could bring strong to severe thunderstorms in at least parts of the area. Stay tuned for more details on this potential event.

**The map below represents my current thoughts, and is subject to change.**





Next Week Outlook: Colder Temperatures Return

After several days of very warm temperatures in the 80s and 90s, next week should finally bring a return to colder temperatures. With a colder air mass moving in place, high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday are going to drop into the mid to upper 70s for the interior, the upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate NYC area, and in the mid to upper 70s for Long Island and S CT. Overnight temperatures should drop into the 50s away from the coast.

By Wednesday, the next storm may affect the area. At this time, the models are showing a coastal storm to our south that brings a chilly rain on Wednesday. I do not think that this is the more likely solution, especially considering that with the past few storms, the longer range models took some of these storms too far south/east of their actual positions. For now, I am expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Late next week could stay chilly after the storm exits the area, though afterwards there are signs that a warm up may take place. The longer range models have been showing a ridge returning to the area by next weekend, potentially bringing high temperatures into the 80s and 90s once again.

June 3: Some Storms Tonight, Warmth Remains

With partly sunny skies in place, today was yet another very warm day, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s across most of the area.

Short Term Forecast: some thunderstorms are approaching, though severe thunderstorms are not expected. For the rest of the area, a 5% severe thunderstorm risk remains in place, which has been in place since Tuesday (my severe weather forecasts can be seen in the Severe Weather/Tropical page.) Some storms may still be able to produce heavy rain, gusty winds and frequent lightning, with the rest of the area seeing moderate to occasionally heavy rain and thunderstorms.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Despite the cold front having moved through, temperatures are going to stay very warm, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s for northern New Jersey and NYC, in the lower to mid 80s for Long Island and S CT, and in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate coast.

Tomorrow is also going to bring the chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, though the rest of the area should also stay mainly dry, with the nearest area of storms staying well to our west, in the Ohio Valley, from the next system that should move on to affect our area on Saturday.

Weekend Forecast: Stormy, Then Colder

By Saturday, another cold front should approach the area, though this time, the parameters should be better than today, especially with higher wind shear, which is an important factor for severe weather. At this time, I am adding a 10% risk for severe thunderstorms in my Day 3 severe weather forecast, along with a mention of locally severe storms in the 5-day forecast (both pages will be updated soon). High temperatures are going to stay warm, in the mid to upper 80s, though places that do not see thunderstorms could end up even warmer.

By Sunday, temperatures should finally cool down. With the cold front having moved through, high temperatures are going to be in the mid to upper 70s across the area. Meanwhile, the models are showing an area of heavy rain and thunderstorms affecting the area, bringing potentially up to 1 inch of rain. While at this time, I do not think that rainfall amounts will be that high, it is a possibility that needs to be kept an eye on.

Early To Mid Week Outlook: Chilly, Then Warming Up

By Monday, the colder air mass should have reached the area, leading to low temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s away from the coast, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. By Tuesday, temperatures continue to warm up, reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs. Afterwards, there is indication that the next storm may affect the area during the Wednesday-Thursday time frame, potentially bringing the next chance of thunderstorms.

June 2: Storms Return Tomorrow, Weekend

After yesterday's storms, today was yet another very warm day, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s. Despite several cold fronts moving through over the next few days, the warmth is expected to continue, however there are signs that the longer range should be colder.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow is going to be warm once again, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across most of the area, except for Long Island and S CT in the lower to mid 80s, and the immediate coast in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Along with the warm temperatures, warmer dew points are expected, approaching 70 degrees, which should make temperatures feel like the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Thunderstorms are also expected tomorrow afternoon. As the cold front approaches, scattered thunderstorms should begin tomorrow afternoon, some of which may become strong or severe. The thunderstorm chance continues through tomorrow night, and should last into Friday.

Friday And Weekend: Warmth, Storms Continue

On Friday, warm conditions are expected to continue, with high temperatures in the 80s, with the risk of an isolated thunderstorm. By Saturday night, another cold front approaches, bringing once again the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms between Saturday afternoon and Sunday. High temperatures on Saturday should be in the mid to upper 80s, with slightly colder temperatures on Sunday.

For the longer range, the models continue to show significantly colder temperatures returning to the area, with high temperatures in the 60s/70s and low temperatures in the 50s/60s. At this time, I am thinking that this may be too cold, especially considering that the air mass behind the last few cold fronts were not as cold as they originally shown to be. For now, I am expecting high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s across the area to start next week.

June 1: Heat And Storms Return On Thursday

Note: The Severe Weather/Tropical page has now been created, with short term severe weather forecasts for the area and the region, as well as forecasts for any ongoing tropical storms or hurricanes.

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Today was a very warm and humid day across the area, though widespread afternoon thunderstorms temporarily cooled down the temperatures, producing heavy rain and frequent lightning. Despite the cold front having moved through, temperatures are not going to cool down by much; in fact, they should stay the same.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow should be another warm day, though it should not be as humid as today was. High temperatures are going to be in the mid to upper 80s across the area, except for Long Island and S CT, which should be in the lower to mid 80s, and the immediate coast in the mid to upper 70s.

Mainly sunny skies are expected for tomorrow, however these quiet conditions won't last for long. An approaching cold front which should bring thunderstorms to western Pennsylvania and New York tomorrow should approach, reaching the area by Thursday afternoon.

Thursday's Forecast: Hot, Humid And Stormy

Thursday is not going to be a very comfortable day across the area. High temperatures are going to rise into the mid to upper 80s inland, in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the immediate NYC area, and even the coast is going to warm up into the lower 80s, with Long Island in the mid to upper 80s. Along with dew points in the 60s, temperatures may feel even warmer.

Meanwhile, an approaching cold front is going to bring the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. While the probability of a widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak is not too high, some storms may become strong or severe, producing heavy rain and frequent lightning. By Thursday night to Friday morning, a more organized area of rain and thunderstorms may affect the area, bringing rainfall amounts generally between 1/2 and 3/4 inch, locally reaching 1 to 2 inches in the heavier storms.

Friday And Weekend Forecast: Warmth Remains

After the cold front on Thursday night, as with the previous cold front, temperatures are not expected to cool down by much, if at all. As the colder air mass should stay to our north, high temperatures are going to stay in the 80s for Friday, with dry conditions.

Another cold front should then approach the area, once again drawing in warmth with temperatures returning into the upper 80s and lower 90s. There is uncertainty with the timing, as models such as the GFS and GGEM are leaning towards Saturday, with the ECMWF leaning towards Sunday. At this time, I am following the slower solution, expecting the cold front to move through on Sunday, though the faster solution is still a possibility, where the cold front moves through on Saturday.

Behind this cold front, there is indication that a colder air mass may move in, though as with previous times when a colder air mass approached, this air mass should also significantly weaken by the time that it reaches the area, bringing slightly below average temperatures, in the upper 70s to lower 80s.