May 7: Stormy Pattern Next Week

The past two days were very nice across the area, with partly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures. Tomorrow should be the last of these days, as the pattern becomes colder, and eventually wetter.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow is expected to be a wet day across the region. While most of the region should only see a little rain and thunderstorms, only the central and northern parts of the Northeast should see heavier rainfall. Our area should see some rain and thunderstorms in the morning to early afternoon hours, though they should be scattered, with clearing skies by the late afternoon.

In addition, snow returns to the forecast tomorrow night across the Northeast, where cold air approaching from the northwest will lead to high elevation accumulating snow, and even the lower elevations of central-northern New York and Pennsylvania may see a little snow.

Tomorrow should be the last mild day for the next few days. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland, and in the lower to mid 70s for the immediate New York City area. By the time that the cold front moves through, increasingly windy conditions should develop by the late afternoon and overnight periods, with sustained winds between 20-30 mph with gusts as high as 50 mph.

Chilly Sunday, Interior Frost And Freeze Sunday Night

With the windy conditions on Saturday night, combined with chilly temperatures in the mid to upper 30s in the interior, upper 30s to lower 40s for the NYC suburbs, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC, temperatures should feel colder than they are, in the upper 20s to 30s, making for a cold Sunday morning.

Sunday should be a very chilly day, and along with the wind, the temperatures will feel like the average in early April. High temperatures should be generally in the mid to upper 50s across the area, with a few places in the immediate NYC area reaching the lower 60s, and the interior areas only peaking in the lower 50s.

As I have previously mentioned, frost and freeze may return to the interior areas. This scenario is now becoming more likely, with low temperatures expected to reach the freezing mark in the interior parts of the area on Sunday night. The immediate New York City area should be slightly warmer, though temperatures should still be quite cold, in the mid to upper 30s for the suburbs and in the lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Next Week Outlook: Chilly Start, Wet Middle And End

Monday and Tuesday are going to steadily warm up, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area on Monday, and reaching the lower to mid 60s by Tuesday. Overnight lows should be in the 40s, with upper 30s possible in the interior. A few showers are possible in the western areas by Tuesday evening.

The rest of the week is going to be a different story. A storm approaching from our west is going to bring periods of rain and thunderstorms on Wednesday, and while there is uncertainty with the storm's track, there is the potential for 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain on Wednesday with locally higher amounts in the wetter case scenario, which at this time appears to be more likely. The other scenario is where the heaviest rain stays well to our north, with some showers and thunderstorms in our area.

Thursday should be drier, however there is more rain on the way. Several other areas of low pressure are going to approach the region, bringing a chance of rain and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

May 5: Thunderstorms To Return Tomorrow

With mainly sunny skies and temperatures reaching the lower 80s, today was a nice day across the area. While today was dry, tomorrow should not be the same.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

High temperatures tomorrow are expected to be slightly colder than today, around the upper 70s to lower 80s. A cold front will move through during the day, however this should not make the temperatures much colder.

Tomorrow, however, should bring thunderstorms during the morning and early afternoon hours. The cold front is going to produce areas of showers and thunderstorms, and while the heaviest storms should stay to our north and east, we should also get thunderstorms. With some severe weather factors in place, some storms could be locally strong or severe, however a widespread severe weather outbreak is not anticipated. The thunderstorms should exit by the late afternoon with clearing skies.

Friday And Saturday Storm, Rest Of Weekend Forecast

The models have started to come more into an agreement for the storm on Saturday, showing an area of rain moving to our north late on Friday night, with a cold front moving through on Saturday afternoon, bringing through showers and thunderstorms, which some may become strong. There is still some uncertainty, as the GFS brings the cold front through earlier, on Saturday morning, however at this time I am thinking that the GFS is too fast with the overall pattern during this time period. While I am considering the GFS an outlier for now, it is possible that this solution could verify, and the front would then move through on Saturday morning.

Sunday should be a very chilly day across the area. With a colder air mass in place, high temperatures should only be in the mid to upper 50s in the interior areas, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s for NYC and closer to the coast. Overnight lows should also be cold, in the mid to upper 30s inland, and in the lower to mid 40s for the New York City area.

Storm Potential Returns Next Week

Monday and Tuesday are also expected to be chilly, though temperatures should slowly warm up, already reaching the lower to mid 60s by Tuesday, possibly even warmer. By late Tuesday night, however, the latest models are indicating that a relatively large storm is going to move into the area, bringing period of rain and thunderstorms between Wednesday and Friday. There is still uncertainty as this is in the longer range, however looking at the models, this storm has the potential to produce yet another heavy rain event across the area. Stay tuned for more details on this potential storm.

May 4: Colder Temperatures To Return

Note: I apologize for the delay, though my May Outlook has now been posted in the Long Range Forecasts section. I am expecting a wetter and slightly colder than average month.

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Today was mild across the area, with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s, though there was not as much humidity as yesterday had. A few isolated storms were observed in the area, however the worst storms were to our north, from central New York to western Massachusetts and Connecticut, where there were over 70 significant wind reports!

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Despite the cold front passing through, temperatures won't get colder, in fact they may even be slightly warmer. High temperatures are expected to peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the interior areas, and in the lower to mid 80s for the New York City area, except for the immediate coast, which should have high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.

Mainly sunny skies are expected tomorrow, leading to a very nice and comfortable day, especially with the temperatures. Other than a few thunderstorms in western Pennsylvania and New York, the rest of the region should also stay dry.

Late Week Outlook: Rain On Thursday, Dry Friday

By late Wednesday night, the same cold front that will bring the thunderstorms to western Pennsylvania and New York should move towards the area. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are likely between late Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon, though strong to severe thunderstorms are not expected. As a result of the earlier passage of the cold front than previously expected, Thursday's temperatures will also be colder than previously expected, in the upper 70s to lower 80s instead of the mid to upper 80s.

Friday is expected to be partly sunny with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s, however a storm to our west is going to bring additional rain and thunderstorms starting on Friday night. There is still uncertainty on the exact timing, location and whether it will be able to produce severe thunderstorms or not, however it is likely that the storm should track near the Great Lakes, bringing warmer temperatures that may reach 80 degrees in parts of the area, and it should produce rain sometime between Friday night and Saturday night. As a result, I am mentioning occasional rain and thunderstorms for late Friday night and Saturday, with a chance of thunderstorms for Saturday evening.

Colder Temperatures Return Sunday, Next Storm Potential

After Saturday's storm exits, temperatures are going to cool down. Saturday night should already become colder, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 40s in the interior areas, in the mid to upper 40s for the New York City suburbs, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s for New York City. Sunday should be the coldest day during this time period, with high temperatures in the generally in the mid to upper 50s, potentially colder in the interior areas and warmer in the immediate NYC area.

Sunday night should also be quite cold across the area, with low temperatures in the 30s in the interior areas. The immediate NYC area should stay with lows in the 40s, however low temperatures should be colder than Saturday night. Monday begins to slightly warm up, with high temperatures in the lower 60s for most of the area.

Temperatures are expected to warm up steadily until the middle of next week, likely reaching the mid to upper 60s. Meanwhile, the models show a storm approaching from our west, however there is still uncertainty on the smaller details such as its location and timing. Despite the uncertainty, rain could potentially return to the area by mid to late next week.

May 3: Severe Weather Bust, Late Week Update

Today was yet another warm and humid day, with high temperatures generally in the 80s across the area. Thankfully, tomorrow should not be as humid as today, with dew points dropping into the 50s.

The severe weather forecast, however, did not end up as expected. Due to the cold front being further west than expected, we did not have much of a trigger for the storms, which resulted in only 4 severe weather reports across the region, all of them being wind reports. Instead of severe weather, an area of heavy rain fell from east central Pennsylvania to New York City and northeastern New Jersey, producing locally up to 2 inches of rain. Another line of rain and thunderstorms was observed in the afternoon hours as the cold front moved through.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

While temperatures should be only slightly colder than today, it won't be very humid tomorrow, with dew points in the 50s. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area, except for the immediate coast that should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Partly Sunny skies are expected tomorrow, however a weak storm to our north could result in isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. The greater risk for thunderstorms should be to our north, into northern New York. Across the region, thunderstorms are also possible in southeastern Virginia, where humid conditions should continue.

Wednesday And Thursday: Warmth Continues

As previously mentioned, warm conditions are expected to continue through Thursday. Wednesday should have high temperatures similar to tomorrow, in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Thursday should be warmer than Wednesday, with high temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 80s.

There have been some changes with the model solutions for the late week to early weekend period. As there is still uncertainty, the forecast for late next week at this time is a lower confidence forecast, however there should be a better idea of what should happen over the next few days. Instead of showing a cold front moving through on Friday, the current models show a weak cold front moving through on Thursday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Friday is slightly colder, though Saturday warms up ahead of another storm that is shown to track in the southeastern Great Lakes, bringing rain and thunderstorms.

As there is uncertainty with the timing of the first cold front, I am mentioning a 50% chance of thunderstorms on Thursday throughout the day. At this time, I am keeping Friday with partly sunny skies, but there is the possibility of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. There is uncertainty with the second and stronger storm's timing and location, though it is likely that we see rain out of this storm, so for now, I am expecting rain and thunderstorms on Friday night and Saturday. As there is uncertainty with the storm's location, it could end up further south or north, which is an important factor along with timing in order to determine whether there could be any strong or severe thunderstorms with this cold front.

Longer Range Outlook: Much Colder

A much colder air mass is going to move in behind the storm on Saturday. While Saturday night should not be too cold, Sunday is going to be much colder. High temperatures are expected to be only in the mid to upper 50s in the interior areas, and in the upper 50s to lower 60s for New York city and closer to the coast. This is nearly 10-15 degrees below the average high temperatures!

Sunday night is currently expected to be the coldest night. Low temperatures are going to fall into the 30s across most of the Northeast and the interior Mid Atlantic, with lower 40s for New York City. If conditions are favorable, frost and freeze may return to the interior areas.

May 2 Storm Updates

A few brief storm updates will be posted here, including short term forecasts.

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10:11 PM: An area of heavy thunderstorms is currently approaching the Allentown, PA area. While the storm's exact track is uncertain, it may affect Sussex and Orange counties with moderate to heavy thunderstorms in the next 1-2 hours.

May 2: Warm Week Ahead, Stormy End

As yesterday's forecast expected, today ended up being very warm and humid, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the coast. There were more clouds than sun today, however places that had breaks in the cloud cover were able to warm up quickly.

Meanwhile, there were some last minute changes with the storm set up that changed the forecast for the next few days. The storm and cold front ended up further west than expected, leading to a delay in the severe weather timing, and smaller severe weather probabilities. In addition, as a result, tomorrow should also be warm and humid instead of colder.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

As mentioned, tomorrow should also be warm. High temperatures should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the interior areas, and in the lower to mid 80s for the immediate New York City area away from the coast. With dew points in the upper 60s, tomorrow should also be humid.

The cold front, which has been delayed, is going to move through the area late tomorrow. It should produce periods of rain and thunderstorms, though there shouldn't be any severe thunderstorms.


Mid-Late Week And Weekend Outlook

Tuesday should be the "coldest" day of next week, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s across the area. This would still be several degrees above the average high temperature for this time of the year. As a warmer air mass begins to move into the area, high temperatures on Wednesday rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few mid 80s are even possible.

Thursday should continue warming up, with high temperatures returning into the mid to upper 80s. As a storm organizes well to our north and west, it is expected to draw in much colder air to its northwest, with its cold front moving through between Friday and Saturday. This cold front is expected to produce thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and evening, with the potential of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

After the cold front moves through, much colder temperatures return into the area. High temperatures on Saturday are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with Sunday cooling down even further, bringing high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s.

May 1: Storms Tomorrow, Longer Range Update

Note: There will be an update tomorrow evening. If there are any storms before 10 PM, I will post short term forecasts for the storms.

Today was a very warm day across the area, with temperatures well into the 80s inland, reaching the lower 90s in some places, however my forecast was too warm for NYC and NE NJ. With the expectation of a SW wind, temperatures were supposed to rise into the upper 80s-lower 90s north and west of NYC, and in the mid-upper 80s in NYC, however a southeast wind prevented temperatures from rising too high, and caused the temperatures to drop by 3-5 PM, when we would typically see the warmest temperatures.

Tomorrow's Outlook: Severe Weather

Tomorrow is also expected to be warm, however how warm it gets is a question, especially with today's unexpected southeast wind causing lower than expected temperatures in parts of the area. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s across the area, however it may be slightly higher or lower, depending on the amount of sunshine and wind direction.

Thunderstorms are expected to be the main problem across the region. Until the late afternoon hours, we should stay dry, with severe storms to our west, in Pennsylvania into south central New York. By the evening, however, thunderstorms are expected to affect the area as the cold front approaches. The storms may be strong to severe, though the worst storms should stay to our west.

Below is my regional forecast for the severe storm potential tomorrow. There is some uncertainty with the exact placement of the 30% risk area, so for now I have a widespread area, which could be narrowed down.



Longer Range Outlook: Warmth, Then Storms

Rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue into Monday, with high temperatures in the upper 70s. Locally heavy rain is possible, however severe thunderstorms are not expected. Tuesday and Wednesday should continue to cool down, with high temperatures returning into the mid 70s.

By Thursday, however, much warmer temperatures should return to the area as a storm organizes to our west and pulls in much warmer air. Temperatures return into the mid 80s for high temperatures on Thursday, with Friday about the same, if not slightly warmer.

The cold front is expected to affect the area between Friday and Saturday, however this front could end up being stronger than the cold front moving through on Monday, as there is a sharp gradient between the warm air mass in place and a much colder air mass coming from the north and west. Thunderstorms are expected on both days, and while still uncertain, there is also the potential for severe thunderstorms. After the cold front moves through, temperatures become much colder, with high temperatures likely returning into the 60s.