Mar 6: Update On Next Storm Potential

Mild Weekend Ahead

Today should finally break the cloudy pattern that this week had so far. My updated 3 day forecast from this morning shows mostly sunny skies across the area today, with high temperatures near 50 degrees in the New York City area and Long Island, and in the upper 40s further north and west. Tomorrow should continue to become warmer, with high temperatures already in the 50s in a widespread part of the tri-state area. Monday should be the warmest day, with high temperatures possibly in the mid 50s for the immediate New York City area, with Long Island and the north/west parts of the tri-state area in the lower 50s.

Mid Week Outlook: Still Dry, Slightly Colder Temperatures

After the mild weekend, we should see temperatures slightly cool down, though we're not going to see about a cold spell, but rather slightly colder temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 40s across the area. The low temperatures will also become colder, generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Cloud cover is expected to be mostly to partly sunny during this time period.

Late Week To Next Weekend: Storm To Affect The Area

By the late week, things should get more active. We have a storm that should approach the area by the late week, bringing with it a lot of moisture. The models are all over the place, with the 00z GFS showing what appears to be a snowstorm, and some models being completely suppressed with the storm. This shows us how the models are not consistent at this time, and will most likely continue to be inconsistent until at least Tuesday or Wednesday.

One problem that is preventing us from seeing a snowstorm out of this storm is that we are missing a widespread, strong cold air mass. What we have at this time is a weak cold air mass to our north, which can easily make it a rain storm even with a supportive track for a snowstorm. We still have to see how strong the cold air is and how widespread it is, which might make the forecast slightly colder or warmer, though at this time, we are most likely looking at a rain event, possibly heavy, for Friday and Saturday, with a frozen precipitation event for the interior Northeast and the higher elevations of the interior Mid Atlantic.

Below is a map showing a scenario that I think could happen if my current thinking was to verify. This is not a scenario map, as it is still too early to issue a scenario map. Remember that this is still only my early thinking, and could end up being colder or warmer.

Mar 5: Potential Storm Late Next Week

Weekend And Early Week Forecast

For the short term, some scattered rain and snow showers are impacting the area. These scattered showers should continue to impact parts of the area through the afternoon hours. Little to no snow accumulation is expected.

After today, the cold air mass that has been out of the area will be replaced by an expanding ridge, allowing for warmer temperatures and dry conditions. Tomorrow will already be warmer, with temperatures in the mid to upper 40s across the area. The warm up will continue, with sunny skies on Sunday and highs in the upper 40s across the area. Some places near New York City should reach 50 degrees. Monday will be the warmest day, with widespread temperatures in the 50s.

A weak storm that moves towards Maine around Tuesday from Canada should bring in colder air into the area. While we are looking at slightly colder temperatures, this should not be another cold spell with high temperatures returning into the 30s, but rather a brief period of high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s.

Storm Possible Late Next Week

As I previously mentioned, the models have been showing a storm for late next week. The GFS, for example, trended more suppressed with the storm yesterday, showing a track that would take it well south of the area. Last night's model runs, however, now show a solution where another storm then forms in the South by the end of the week behind the original storm, then moves northeast towards the area, but due to the lack of cold air, it would bring rain to the area.

At this time, I am leaning more towards that direction, with the second storm moving NE out of the south and bringing rain to the area, but I am thinking that there should be enough cold air left so that the interior Northeast and interior northern Mid Atlantic get frozen precipitation out of this storm. This is still in the medium range, so it can still change. Stay tuned for more details on this potential storm.

Mar 4: Mild And Dry Weekend

Cloudy Conditions End Tomorrow, Mild Weekend

After having mainly cloudy skies most of this week except for Monday, tomorrow should be the last day of cloudy to mostly cloudy skies as the storm that briefly affected the area yesterday should exit the northeastern United States. For the short term, no storm is expected to follow it, with dry conditions and mainly sunny skies this weekend.

Temperatures, though, are going to start becoming warmer. While tomorrow should still be a little chilly, by Saturday high temperatures are going to rise into the mid to upper 40s, and some locations may reach 50 degrees in warmer spots. Sunday continues this trend, with widespread temperatures in the 50s. Monday is currently expected to be the warmest day, with some places south of New York City possibly reaching the mid 50s.

Possible Storm Next Week

After the mild conditions that develop, another storm might form mid-late next week. There is still a lot of uncertainty about where the storm tracks as it is still almost a week away, though it is becoming less likely that the storm tracks through the Great Lakes and draws in warmth. The GFS continues with its suppressed storm solution, where it keeps the cold air over the Northeast and forcing the storm to stay south, though I am thinking that it might be too cold with its forecast temperatures, considering that it has tomorrow's highs only in the mid 30s, when they should be warmer than that.

What is becoming likely is that this storm would track from west to east, which in a normal January pattern would be able to bring a snowstorm to the area or places south of the area. The problem is that in March, the temperatures are warmer than January, and we also barely have a small cold air mass as the warm up over the weekend should remove the cold air out of the area. So whether the storm is suppressed or is further north, the Mid Atlantic is unlikely to get much, if any snow out of this storm. If the storm ends up north of what the GFS shows though, the interior northern Mid Atlantic and the Northeast would end up with a frozen precipitation event, possibly a snowstorm.

What is likely at this time is that temperatures through next week should be near to above average, mainly in the 40s. Whether any precipitation falls, when it does, and in what form is still uncertain and is unlikely to become more certain until at least this weekend.

Mar 3: Storm Bust, Next Week Warmth

Today's Forecast Bust: Storm Was Too Warm, Too Dry

While before yesterday, my forecasts for this storm called for near or less than an inch of snow, the consistency of so many models trending wetter for the area convinced me that the storm would in fact take that direction, with more snow falling in the area. Yet it turned out that this last minute trend was incorrect on the models, as the storm took an unexpected direction by tracking closer to the coast and bringing warmer temperatures, bringing rain to southern New Jersey instead of 1-3 or 2-4 inches of snow. There was also not as much precipitation as the models showed, with Central Park having reported 0.07 inch of precipitation instead of the 0.50 inch of precipitation that the GFS showed.

For the short term, expect light rain/snow to slowly taper off, with snow accumulations near or less than an inch north and west of NYC. Scattered rain/snow showers are still possible through the afternoon and early evening hours.

Is Winter Over?

I am currently thinking that once the mild spell ends during mid-late next week, the cold temperatures (but not as cold as they were) would briefly return, with the time frame for another chance of snow possibly between March 10 and 20. However, if any snowstorm does take place in this time frame, unless we get very cold air to enter the Northeast United States, that would only be a generally light snowstorm. After this time period, the chances for snow become increasingly unlikely, as the sun angle is very high, the average temperatures are already past 50 degrees, the cold spells become much weaker and the average storm track shifts further north.

It is still impossible to rule out any cold and snow until at least early April though, as despite it being unlikely, it has happened before. Examples include the early April 2007 cold blast, where temperatures were well below average, and accumulating snow was even reported in places such as southern Virginia and North Carolina.

Weekend Warm-Up, High Temperatures In The 50s By Monday

As I previously mentioned, the temperatures are about to turn warmer. While the low temperatures should still be chilly through Saturday, generally in the 20s across the area, they should also start to become warmer afterwards. High temperatures should steadily rise through the late week and weekend, already peaking near 50 degrees in parts of the area by Sunday. Monday should be the warmest day, with high temperatures in the lower 50s across a rather widespread part of the area.

There is still uncertainty for the storm in the middle of next week, however the 06z GFS run showed an interesting solution that also can't be ruled out considering the uncertainty. It shows a storm forming in the Plains and instead of going northeast towards the Great Lakes, it is blocked from doing so and starts to move east. As the storm is blocked from moving north, the warm air is also blocked from moving into the area, and as a result the GFS keeps the cold air. By the time it reaches the Ohio Valley, as many other storms have done this winter, it transfers its energy to a secondary low, that moves offshore.

At this time, I would say that some rain is possible in the middle of next week with above average temperatures, though if the GFS does verify and the storm is blocked from going too far north, there might be snow in the Northeast and as far south as southern New York.

Update On Tomorrow's Storm

**Remember that the 3-day forecasts have now been moved to the new page, the link is in the top right corner of the page, titled "3 Day Area Forecast".

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After my post from this morning, the majority of the models have trended much wetter with this storm, along with the NAM. The GFS now shows 0.5" QPF, and the NAM would show at least 0.25" QPF. They are still trending west with the precipitation, which if this trend continues, could put the area under higher precipitation amounts. If this was January and we had a fresh source of cold air, that would fall as snow, with around 4-7 inches. But we are talking about a completely different scenario that will prevent another major snowstorm in the Washington DC to Boston corridor.

First of all, most forecasts for tonight have the low temperatures in the lower to mid 30s for the cities, and in the upper 20s elsewhere. This is not cold enough for a dry, high ratio snowfall, and instead should lead to a wet snow. There should also be rain mixing, as the temperatures are too warm for plain snow. So the total snow that does fall and accumulate will be less than the precipitation amount that falls.

For example, take southern NJ, with near 1" QPF. They should have rain to start, already taking away some of the precipitation. When it does start to snow, the temperatures should be generally above freezing, limiting accumulations to non-paved surfaces, and the ratios should also be low, also making these amounts even lower. So this way, we went down from what could've been 10 inches of snow to just 3-5 inches of wet, heavy snow.

Taking what I said above, with the model trends, I would guess that NYC could get at least 0.4" QPF if the west trend does verify. Considering that we should also have rain, and temperatures would be warm enough that it falls as mainly wet snow, that takes us down to at least 2 inches of snow. So at this time, my forecast for the New York City area would be 2-4 inches of snow, with the highest accumulations well north and west of New York City.

Below is my snow map for the storm. Remember that the precipitation across most of the area except the far NW areas of the snow zones start out as rain, then change over to mainly snow overnight.

**Slight Correction to the map: Snow amounts should end up being slightly lower in the Washington DC area. There is currently rain falling with temperatures in the 40s, and while snow should fall there later tonight, I do not think that the temperatures will be cold enough for any significant snow accumulation.

Mar 2: Warmer Temperatures Starting Next Weekend

Update On Tomorrow's Light Precipitation Event

We are currently seeing a split between the GFS and NAM models. The NAM, which has been consistent with a sharp cut off line to the precipitation well offshore, bringing only light rain/snow showers to the area, goes against the GFS, which has been showing the heavier precipitation from the storm making it inland, and in the past few runs it took it even more inland, which would bring NYC 4-6 inches of snow.

In previous storms this winter, when we were dealing with storms that had a sharp cut off line, the NAM usually performed better than the GFS. Examples include the December 19-20, 2009 storm, where the NAM had NW NJ and NE PA with low QPF amounts when the GFS brought heavy snow to those areas, and the February 5-6 storm, when in the last few runs, the GFS showed several inches of snow to most of northern NJ and the NAM had only a few snow showers. This leads me to believe that the NAM may have the more correct solution for this storm, and while it should be a little wetter than the NAM shows, I don't expect it to bring as much precipitation as the GFS shows.

I am still expecting light snow to start late tonight, mixing with rain towards the coast. The light snow/rain will continue through tomorrow, with snow accumulations near or less than 1 inch. The precipitation then ends tomorrow night.

Warm Up To Begin Next Weekend

Those who have been waiting for a taste of warm weather may finally get what they wanted next weekend, when our first major widespread warm up since late January takes place. After the mid week storm exits, the warmer air from the west will spread east, removing the cold air mass out of most of the Northeast. We also do not have another arctic high pressure dropping out of Canada, but instead there will be a weak low pressure area that should also help draw in the warm temperatures. Expect the weekend to steadily become warmer, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s by Saturday. Sunday will continue to warm up, with high temperatures possibly in the lower 50s for parts of the area. Monday will be another mild day, with high temperatures in the 50s.

Then comes our next storm, however this time it is unlikely to bring any snow to the area. Instead, we are looking at a storm that should track well north and west of the area, bringing along with it unseasonably warm air for a day or two, followed by a cold front that brings rain and a cool down back to colder temperatures. There is still uncertainty on whether a secondary low does or does not form, which if it does, temperatures could be slightly colder (40s/50s instead of 50s/60s), though whether it happens or not, we are most likely looking at rain for the middle of next week with above average temperatures.

Mar 1: Light Rain/Snow On Wednesday

Note: The usual 3 day forecasts that I do have been moved to a separate page. You can find the page in the top right corner of the page, in a link titled "3 Day Area Forecast".

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Light Rain And Snow On Wednesday:

The storm that I mentioned in my update on Saturday now appears to be mainly suppressed, with the main impact area being south of Washington DC. The storm did not trend north/west, but it also did not trend much south/east. As a result, we are looking at a storm moving out of the southeast and moving northeast offshore, intensifying along the way. The storm should be far east enough to prevent heavy snow from once again returning to the major cities from Washington DC to New York City, but some snow should make it to the cities. The heaviest snowfall at this time appears to stay further south, towards Virginia and the northern parts of the Southeast.

For the New York City area, expect light snow, possibly mixed with rain, to start tomorrow night, and to continue through the day on Thursday. Up to an inch of snow is expected, with locally higher amounts.

Below is the scenario we are currently looking at. There should be widespread light snow in the Northeast with no more than 1-2 inches. The light snow continues until at least the central Mid Atlantic, with an area of moderate snow further south. The moderate snow area could end up with 2-4 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts.



First Widespread Warm Up Since Late January Next Weekend

Since January 25, when a storm tracking well to our north and west brought temperatures into the 50s and 60s across the area, temperatures have remained near average, with high temperatures generally in the 30s and 40s. However, next weekend appears as if it should temporarily end this spell of chilly temperatures.

After the mid week storm exits, we have a widespread area of chilly temperatures in the East. By the late week, however, a high pressure should approach the Southeast coast, which will bring warmer temperatures to the East Coast while pushing the cold airmass out of the area. Temperatures will be on the rise through next weekend, with high temperatures approaching 50 degrees on Sunday. By Monday, high temperatures could end up being in the 50s across the area.

During that time, however, we may see a storm start to form in the Plains. The storm should start heading east or northeast, taking a track that could take it close to the Great Lakes. There is still uncertainty on whether this storm will continue moving north and east with no transfer, or if it transfers its energy to another storm further south and east. Whether that does or does not happen, we are possibly looking at a rain storm during the middle of next week, with above average temperatures.