Mar 9, 2013: Mild Weekend, Then Colder

This post is the second part of tonight's update, which was separated into two parts. The first part is a review of the mid-late week storm, and the second part is a forecast update.

Forecast Highlights:

After the surprise significant snowstorm on Friday, the system that has affected the region since Tuesday left just in time for a mostly sunny and mild weekend, with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s across most of the area. Similar conditions will continue through the early week before a cold front produces rain, possibly heavy, on Tuesday, followed by a colder pattern expected to develop, likely to put a persistent spring-like pattern on hold for a while.

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Today's Observations:

Temperatures on Saturday were warmer than expected, peaking in the low to mid 50s in Long Island, SE NY and southern CT, mid to upper 50s in NYC, and the upper 50s to low 60s in northern NJ. The warmest temperature was 61 degrees in Somerville, NJ, with the lowest temperature 49 degrees in Montauk, NY. Winds were generally out of the north.


Tonight - Tuesday: Warmth Continues; Rain On Tuesday

Following the departure of the late week storm, a high pressure built into the region, with mainly clear cloud cover and warmer than average temperatures returning. High temperatures for Sunday and Monday will end up warmer inland than near the coast with an expected SE/SSE flow; highs in Long Island and S CT are generally expected to end up in the mid to possibly upper 40s, with low 50s in NYC and low-mid 50s west of NYC. The temperature outlook is still subject to minor revisions, especially for Monday, where it is possible temperatures end up warmer than currently expected.

By Tuesday, a cold front will move through the region, with stronger SSE winds likely gusting up to/over 30 mph. Moderate to heavy rain is expected to fall starting in the morning, likely ending by the late afternoon to evening hours with at least 1/2 to 1 inch of rain currently expected, locally higher. Mild high temperatures are expected again reaching the low to mid 50s for most, with lower highs near coastal areas with the onshore flow.


Longer Range: Cold Pattern To Return

A persistent theme in the pattern this month so far is blocking; a block persisted for several days in the Davis Strait and eastern Greenland region early in the month, breaking down as mid-late week storm took place, with another round of blocking likely towards the Davis Strait and northern Canada region in the medium to long range; with the current pattern in place, temperatures will generally remain near to below average aside from occasional periods of warmer temperatures, such as this weekend.

Behind the cold front, a trough will enter the region, with the trough axis becoming more negatively tilted on Wednesday. Partly cloudy skies are expected with isolated rain/snow showers possible and highs in the low to mid 40s inland and mid to upper 40s for the rest of the area. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the 20s to low 30s, with highs on Thursday likely to reach the mid to upper 30s inland and upper 30s to low 40s for the rest of the area along with a breezy NW wind, resulting in colder wind chill values.

A weak system is likely to move through the region on Friday into Friday night, perhaps producing some precipitation in parts of the region, while reinforcing the trough over the region as a stationary front sets up over the region. There is still some uncertainty regarding exactly where this sets up, although currently this is likely to end up south of the area, keeping chilly temperatures in place across the region with highs in the 30s and 40s and overnight lows in the 20s to low 30s. Temperatures are likely to warm up towards next week, although no significant prolonged warm up is currently showing up in the foreseeable range; given the upcoming pattern, yesterday's storm may not have been the last snow event of the winter for the region and perhaps including the area.