Mar 11, 2013: Rain Tomorrow, Then Colder

Forecast Highlights:

Another day of mild temperatures with highs in the 50s for parts of the area was observed, with similar temperatures expected to continue through Wednesday. A cold front will move through the region on Tuesday, producing heavy rain, followed by colder than average temperatures returning for the mid to late week, peaking on Thursday but persisting through the weekend and into the following week.

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Today's Observations:

Cloudy skies and fog started out the day, with some clearing in the cloud cover later on. High temperatures were slightly warmer than yesterday, peaking in the mid 40s to low 50s in Long Island/S CT and the low to mid 50s from NYC and further west. Parts of northern NJ reached the upper 50s especially further west away from NYC. Winds were generally light from the southeast.


Tonight - Wednesday: Mild, Rain

Cloud cover will increase tonight as a cold front approaches from the west, with temperatures failing to drop much overnight. Moderate to locally heavy showers will develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning, with a line of heavy rain expected to move through around the early-mid afternoon hours, clearing locations west of NYC by the mid afternoon hours and east of NYC by the evening to early overnight hours. Rain totals are generally expected to end up between 1/2 to 1 inch with locally higher amounts. Highs are generally expected to reach the low to mid 50s across the area with a breezy SSE wind. Depending on the timing of the rain, parts of NE NJ may reach the upper 50s.

The cold front will move through the area on Tuesday evening, with breezy NW winds developing for Wednesday along with partly cloudy skies and scattered showers. Highs are expected to peak in the upper 40s to low 50s across the area, with mid 50s towards the immediate NYC area.


Longer Range: Colder Pattern Returns, Persists

By the late week, a strong blocking pattern is expected to develop towards Greenland and Canada which is expected to keep temperatures generally near to colder than average across the region for a while, potentially approaching the end of the month. A strong trough will move through the region on Thursday and Friday, with highs on Thursday only reaching the mid to upper 30s inland and upper 30s to low 40s for the rest of the area; typical daytime highs in Central Park are near 50 degrees. Overnight lows are expected to end up in the 20s across the area, near 30 in NYC and approaching 20 inland. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected for Friday with highs mainly in the 40s.

A weak low pressure is likely to affect the region on Saturday, resulting in cloudy skies and likely showers. Currently, this low pressure is likely to track far north enough to keep snow north of the area, towards the Northeast. Based on the latest models, rain would clear the area by the evening, although the timing is still subject to change. High temperatures will remain below average, generally in the 40s. Chilly temperatures are expected to continue through Sunday and the early week, with highs again in the 40s and lows in the 20s inland and 30s closer to the coast.

The next storm currently appears to potentially affect the region towards Monday-Wednesday, March 18-20. As this storm is still over a week out, details will continue to change on the models, and this storm will be watched for potential impacts across the region. With the current blocking pattern and strong supply of cold air to the north in southeastern Canada, the inverted trough late last week was likely not the last snow event for the region, and potentially for the NYC area as well. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range as details become clearer.