Mar 12, 2013: Colder Pattern To Develop, Persist

Forecast Highlights:

After today's heavy rain event, one more day of seasonably mild conditions is left, with highs reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s tomorrow. Winter is not over yet, however; a blocking pattern is expected to develop, with temperatures starting on Thursday staying near to below average across the region for the majority of the foreseeable range. Along with the cold pattern comes the potential for additional snow in the Northeast US and potentially in the NYC area.

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Today's Observations:

A cold front moved through the region today, producing widespread moderate to heavy rain. Totals were generally between 1/2 and 1 inch, with totals locally higher than 1 inch north and west of NYC. Temperatures were also warmer today, peaking in the low to mid 50s east of NYC and the mid to upper 50s from NYC and further west. Breezy south/SE winds were observed today, changing to NW in the evening behind the cold front.


Tonight - Sunday: Colder Pattern Develops

The last day of warmth with the current temporary warm up will be Wednesday, with highs again reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s across the area with light west winds. Scattered showers are possible, especially in the afternoon hours. Overnight, temperatures will gradually cool down into the 20s inland and 30s closer to the coast.

The coldest day of this current colder pattern is expected on Thursday, with highs only in the mid to upper 30s inland and upper 30s for the rest of the area, possibly reaching the low 40s in some spots; the average high temperature during this time of the year in Central Park is 49 degrees. A breezy NW wind is expected up to 10-20 mph, locally higher, with gusts up to 25-35 mph, resulting in wind chill values staying in the 20s most of the day. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the 20s across the area, and into the upper 10s for interior northwestern areas and perhaps eastern Long Island. Friday will be partly sunny with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area.

A weak low pressure is expected to quickly move through on Saturday, producing occasional showers throughout the day, likely ending by the evening. There is some uncertainty with the track of the low pressure; currently the storm is likely to track over or just north of the area, but should it track to the south, interior areas may start out with light snow before changing over to rain. Highs are generally expected to reach the 40s, and depending on the track and timing of the storm, may approach 50 degrees southwest of NYC. Colder temperatures will return for Sunday with highs still colder than average, peaking in the low to mid 40s across most of the area.


Early-Mid Next Week: Storm Expected

As mentioned with the updates over the last few days, a significant blocking pattern is expected to develop towards Greenland, with a strong cold air mass expected towards southern and central Canada, extending into the northern US keeping temperatures near to below average through most of the foreseeable range beyond the next week. This is in significant contrast to the pattern during this time frame last year, when record heat was being observed across the eastern US with highs in the 70s and 80s. Meanwhile, towards early next week, a storm is expected to develop towards the western US, tracking into the central US before reaching the region towards Tuesday and Wednesday. This storm is still a week away, and additional changes are still expected with the specific details for the storm with confidence not high enough currently to determine exactly where it will end up with what impacts. Given the overall pattern and the presence of strong cold air to the north, however, depending on the track of the storm the potential is there for this storm to produce snow in the Northeast US. Stay tuned for more information on this storm as details become clearer.