Aug 17, 2012: Cooler Temperatures Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

- Storms continue tonight, first part of Saturday
- Cooler temperatures expected most of next week
- Warm up likely late next week/weekend

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Observations for 8/15 through 8/17 will be added on Saturday.


Weekend Outlook: Cooler Temperatures Expected

Occasional storms are expected across parts of the area tonight as storms move in from the southwest as shown to the left in the regional radar. Some storms will continue on Saturday morning and the early afternoon hours, especially from NYC and further east, although clearing in the cloud cover is expected later in the day in the western parts of the area, with highs peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s from NYC and further north/west and the upper 70s, possibly a bit cooler, in Long Island/S CT.

A cooler air mass will move in behind the trough, with one of the coolest nights of the summer expected. Clearing skies will take place overnight with lows dropping into the upper 40s to low 50s inland, mid 50s to low 60s for the north/west suburbs and Long Island/S CT, and the low to mid 60s in NYC. Mostly sunny skies are expected for Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.


Next Week: Still A Little Cooler

The cool air mass will remain close to the Northeast, with temperatures not changing much through the first half of the week. There is some uncertainty regarding Monday's outlook as previous GFS runs and the ECM only have mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, while the CMC and the recent 0z GFS show a stronger coastal low pressure with widespread rain and chilly temperatures. For now, I put scattered showers and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s in the forecast, although the forecast is still subject to some changes.

Partly cloudy skies are expected for Tuesday with more sunshine for Wednesday and Thursday, with highs returning into the low 80s for most of the area. By late next week and into perhaps the weekend, however, temperatures will slightly warm up as 850mb temperatures warm up a little with rising 500mb heights, with highs reaching the low to mid 80s for most of the area and upper 80s in parts of the immediate NYC area.