Sept 7, 2012: Severe Weather Tomorrow

Forecast Highlights:

- Severe storms likely tomorrow evening, especially north/west of NYC
- Cooler temperatures expected for early next week
- Gradual warm up late next week, highs rise back into 80s

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Weather News: A 71 year old man was struck by lightning from an isolated thunderstorm cell in Demarest, NJ, and was pronounced dead several hours afterwards. The storm popped up over NE NJ during the afternoon, with radar estimates showing localized totals near 1-2 inches in far northern areas.

Link to article from NorthJersey.com


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Friday, September 7

Detailed observations coming soon (updated 10/7/12)



Saturday's Outlook: Severe Storms Likely

A strong cold front will move through the region during the evening and early overnight hours on Saturday, bringing a widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak as well as pushing the moist and warm air mass out of the region. Partly cloudy skies are expected with increasing instability by the late afternoon and evening with high temperatures generally reaching the upper 70s to low 80s, perhaps the mid 80s in the immediate NYC area. The trough and cold front will become negatively tilted by the evening and night as a low pressure develops near western New York state and deepens while moving into Canada. Favorable shear parameters are expected, with surface-500mb bulk shear up to 50 knots according to the NAM.

With the favorable severe weather parameters, a squall line containing strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop to the west during the afternoon hours, moving through the area in the evening and early overnight hours, especially after 6-8 PM through 12-2 AM. The best dynamics and the highest risk of severe weather are expected from northern New Jersey through the Hudson Valley and western Massachusetts/Connecticut, where the potential exists for hail, strong/damaging wind gusts, and the possibility of isolated tornadoes. The combination of less favorable parameters and instability as well as the marine layer will reduce the severe weather potential for coastal parts of New Jersey and Long Island, as well as parts of southern/eastern Connecticut.

Stay tuned for more information on the severe weather outbreak with several updates on Saturday.


Next Week: Chilly, Then Warm

Behind the cold front, a fall-like air mass will enter the region from Canada, with 850mb temperatures dropping down to at least 6C, bringing the coolest temperatures since the spring. Mostly sunny skies are expected from Sunday through most of next week with a high pressure dominating the pattern over the Northeast region, with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s across most of the area, possibly peaking in the low 70s in interior areas. Widespread lows in the 50s are expected overnight with low 60s in NYC and upper 40s inland.

The coolest temperatures are expected for Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the low to mid 70s across the area. Monday night will have the coolest temperatures with mainly clear skies and light winds, with lows dropping into the 40s across most places outside of NYC. Temperatures in the suburbs of NYC are expected to reach the upper 40s to low 50s, with low to mid 50s in NYC. Temperatures inland are expected to drop into the low to mid 40s.

By the mid-late week, the high pressure will shift south of the area with a WSW flow developing, resulting in a surge of warmth into the region. Temperatures will gradually warm up, reaching the low to mid 80s by the late week and the upper 80s in parts of the immediate NYC area. There is more uncertainty for the longer range although the potential is still there for a cool down around early next week.