Feb 6, 2012 Brief Update

Forecast Overview:


Tuesday: Mostly sunny skies are expected for the area tomorrow. Temperatures will slightly cool down but will remain unseasonably mild, peaking in the mid to upper 40s across the area. A light NW wind is expected.

Wednesday - Thursday: A weak storm will move through the region on Wednesday and Wednesday night, bringing increased cloud cover and widespread light snow. The snow, however, once again appears to be focusing to the south of the area, with the latest model runs suggesting that southern PA into Maryland may see an inch of snow, if not slightly more, with only scattered snow showers for the area. Based on the trends this winter, such a solution is more likely; with the exception of the January 21 storm which affected the entire region, the rest of the light snow events stayed to the south of the area, affecting the central Mid Atlantic, and the trend is repeating itself once again. Although I placed scattered snow showers in the forecast in the area, it is possible that the storm may entirely stay to the south of the area; another possible but less likely solution is that the storm is stronger and further north with steadier light snow, possibly up to 1 inch, for the area, but at this time scattered snow showers with little to no accumulation is the expectation for this storm. Stay tuned for more information on this light snow shower potential.

Late Week - Weekend: Temperatures will warm up again into the mid 40s on Thursday and the mid to upper 40s on Friday ahead of a cold front. Initially, some of the models showed a big storm for the region, although this solution has become less likely. Scattered snow showers are still possible over the weekend though as a strong yet transient cold air mass moves into the region, bringing the coldest temperatures to the area since January 21. These temperatures are not expected to be significantly colder than average, but highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s may be possible, with lows in the 10s and 20s. Temperatures are then expected to warm up again by early next week. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.