Feb 5, 2012 Brief Update

Forecast Overview:


Monday - Tuesday: Mostly sunny and unseasonably warm temperatures are expected for the next two days. Monday will bring highs into the lower 50s for most of the area, getting close to 55 degrees near NYC, with Tuesday bringing highs into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area. No precipitation will fall on both days.

Wednesday: A weak disturbance will move through the region, bringing mainly cloudy skies especially for the second half of the day and into parts of the overnight hours. There is uncertainty with how much precipitation is associated with this storm, but at the very least scattered rain/snow showers are expected for the region, including the area, starting around Wednesday afternoon. In the wetter case scenario which is less likely but not impossible, a steady light snow may fall for the evening hours with perhaps light accumulations less than an inch. For now, the expectation is for scattered rain/snow showers, but the forecast may still slightly change. Stay tuned for more information on the Wednesday outlook.

Thursday - Next Weekend: Temperatures will slightly warm up on Thursday and Friday, likely reaching the upper 40s to possibly the low 50s once again. By Saturday, however, the polar vortex will be near the Hudson Bay with the trough approaching the region. There is a lot of uncertainty with any phasing, and at this time it appears more likely that the trough may swing through the area without any big storm, but the models are still having difficulty handling this time frame, and the potential is there that should more phasing take place, a storm may affect the area with rain and/or snow. More information will be posted on next weekend's outlook as details become clearer.



Tropics Update: Tropical Disturbance Forms


With the practically non-existent winter this year, including frequent 50+ degree warm spells, the only thing that was missing was tropical cyclone activity - until today, when tropical disturbance 90L formed near the Yucatan Peninsula. This disturbance is under a somewhat favorable environment to maintain its current structure and/or slightly intensify, and although significant development of this disturbance is not expected, there is a low risk, at least 10 or 20 percent chance, that 90L could develop into the first subtropical depression of the year as it moves to the northeast towards Florida. Tropical cyclones are very rare in February; the only February tropical storm in recorded history took place in 1952, with a tropical storm making landfall in Florida.