Jan 14, 2012: Colder Tomorrow, Warmer Monday

A line of scattered snow showers developed this morning, as mentioned with this afternoon's update, and affected northern New Jersey to NYC and western Long Island from the late morning until just half an hour ago with scattered snow showers, some of these briefly moderate. Most locations in northern NJ to NYC saw flurries, although between about Warren through Morris and into Hudson counties in NJ, a band of light snow stalled through most of the afternoon, with some areas picking up a coating of snow. The snow has shifted to the south of the area, however, and with the snow staying south, skies will clear later tonight with much colder temperatures returning by tomorrow morning.

Cold temperatures are expected for Sunday again, although a warmer air mass will once again return by Monday and Tuesday, with above average temperatures expected to return. A weak low pressure will move through the region, bringing widespread rain on Tuesday and Tuesday night with temperatures in the 40s, though the potential is there for the storm to start out with a light wintry mix with little to no accumulations in NW NJ and southeastern NY. Colder temperatures will briefly return for the end of next week with a light snow shower potential for Friday, although the set up that develops beyond this time frame may bring some of the warmest temperatures the area has seen so far this winter into the longer range.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

With the cold air mass moving into the area, cold temperatures are expected tonight, dropping into the lower to mid 10s across most of the area except for parts of the immediate NYC area, which will see warmer temperatures in the upper 10s to possibly the lower 20s. Mostly sunny skies are expected for tomorrow along with cold daytime temperatures, peaking in the mid to upper 20s across the area.

Next Week: Warmer, Some Rain

The cold air mass will quickly be pushed out on Monday with warmer temperatures once again returning, reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s across most of the area. An approaching storm will bring cloudy skies overnight along with a warmer air mass moving in, which will result in temperatures only slightly dropping overnight before rising towards Tuesday morning. There may be enough cold air left at the start of the storm that NW NJ and Orange County in NY start out with a wintry mix, although if this does happen, little to no accumulations are expected, which would be followed by a quick changeover to rain. Occasional showers will continue on Tuesday and Tuesday night with high temperatures warmer than average but still relatively chilly compared to what we've previously seen this winter, reaching the lower 40s inland and the lower to mid 40s across the area, with showers ending before Wednesday morning as a colder air mass moves in. Wednesday will be dry with temperatures reaching the mid 30s for highs across most of the area.

A colder air mass will temporarily move into the region for Wednesday night into Friday, with Wednesday night bringing low temperatures back into the 10s for most of the north/west suburbs of NYC and southern CT. Clouds will increase again on Thursday, however, as a low pressure approaches the Northeast, with high temperatures reaching the mid 30s again across most of the area. Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Thursday night with light snow across the Northeast, and while most of the precipitation will stay to the north of NYC, isolated rain or snow showers are possible especially in the northern parts of the area. Temperatures are likely to warm back up into the 40s for Friday.

Longer Range: The outlook for the longer range has not changed since yesterday, with increasing warmth and temperatures likely to gradually rise into the 40s and later on the 50s during the weekend and into early next week. In the Long Range Forecasts page, I posted yesterday's long range discussion but with a few additions; with the set up potential for the medium range, the potential is there for temperatures to pass 60 degrees in the area at least once, if not more than that, in the 1/20 to 1/28 time frame. Stay tuned for more long range updates.