Nov 7, 2011: Mild Pattern To Persist

The trough that has been in place during the weekend, bringing below average temperatures, has left the region, and with a strong trough in the western US, a strong ridge is currently building into the region, bringing above to well above average temperatures. High temperatures today began to warm up, reaching the lower to mid 60s from NYC and further west and the upper 50s to lower 60s in Long Island and southern Connecticut.

The ridge currently building into the region will not be quick to leave, and will start a period of warmer and drier than average conditions which will persist through much of November with only a few occasional cool spells in between. Tomorrow will bring the warmest temperatures to the area, with parts of NE NJ getting very close to the 70 degree mark. Temperatures will only slightly cool down until the next storm affects the region on Thursday, bringing light rain showers across the area on Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours. Cooler temperatures will briefly return for Friday and Saturday, but another strong ridge will build into the region for next weekend into parts of next week, keeping the mild and mainly dry conditions in place through at least November 16-18.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring mainly sunny skies to the area once again as the high pressure remains over the region. With 850 mb temperatures reaching 9-11 degrees celsius, however, along with a SSW wind expected, warmer high temperatures are expected, peaking in the mid to upper 60s inland, upper 60s in the immediate NYC area, and the mid 60s in most of Long Island and southern CT. In the warmer case scenario, parts of NE NJ may reach the 70 degree mark. With average high temperatures in the mid 50s, tomorrow's highs will be nearly 15 degrees above the average for this time of the year.


Wednesday - Thursday Night: Next Storm Affects The Region


Behind the October snowstorm, the active pattern the region has been under since August is finally taking a longer break, as nearly 10 days have passed since the last precipitation event, and Thursday's rain event will not be a significant one. Wednesday will be dry again but with partly sunny skies, and a SE wind will bring colder temperatures, reaching the lower to mid 60s across the area with the higher end of that range in the immediate NYC area, where highs will reach the 62-67 degree range.

A few days ago, a weak coastal low pressure moved east from Virginia and the Carolinas before drifting SE, ending up south of Bermuda. Since then, this low pressure has developed subtropical characteristics, and the National Hurricane Center is giving this storm a 70% risk of developing into a subtropical cyclone. Regardless of whether it does so or not, this storm only has a short time left in the tropics, as a strong cold front will approach the coast on Thursday, pulling the storm northwards. The low pressure will remain mainly offshore, with the negatively tilted trough pulling the storm NNW, towards the eastern parts of New England. This will keep most of the rain to the east of the area, although scattered showers may affect the area on Thursday, with more widespread showers possible on Thursday night. A storm total of 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is expected, with slightly higher amounts possible in the eastern parts of the area in the wetter case scenario. Stay tuned for more information on this storm.


Friday - Sunday: Cooling Down Briefly


Behind the cold front, temperatures will cool down as a strong yet short lasting trough moves into the region. This trough will bring drier conditions for Friday, with any lingering showers ending by Friday morning. Breezy conditions will develop in the afternoon and evening, with the potential for wind gusts to end up above 30 mph in parts of the area. Colder high temperatures are expected with mostly cloudy skies, reaching the mid to upper 40s inland and the upper 40s to lower 50s across the rest of the area.

Cold overnight lows are expected to return on Friday night, dropping into the upper 20s in the interior parts of the area and the 30s across the rest of the area. By Saturday, however, the trough will begin to exit the region, and high temperatures will slightly warm up, reaching the lower to mid 50s across the area along with partly sunny skies and breezy winds, although not as strong as Friday's wind. With a more zonal flow developing across the US, temperatures will end up slightly above average next weekend, with high temperatures on Sunday slightly warming up into the mid 50s across most of the area.


Next Week's Outlook: Warming Up, Then Cooling Down


By Monday, although a weak trough may try to approach the northeastern US, another trough will drop into the western United States. As a result, a ridge will build into the eastern US once again for early-mid next week as another low pressure likely tracks through the central US. This set up will bring warmer temperatures again for the area, with temperatures potentially surging well into the 60s once again around this time frame. By the second half of the week, chances for rain increase as colder air moves towards the region, with a cold front possibly moving through the region and bringing in these colder temperatures. With the latest teleconnections showing a slowly dropping -NAO along with a -PNA persisting, any cold for late next week is unlikely to become sustained, although beyond the middle of the month, especially with stronger cold air building in western Canada, the potential may be there for more frequent surges of cold air to affect the region towards the last week of November. More information will be posted on the longer range as details become clearer.