Nov 1, 2011 Brief Update

Note: My November Outlook has now been posted in the Long Range Forecasts page. The next update to that page will be by the middle of this month, when my final winter outlook will be posted.

- Tomorrow's update will be a brief update, as with today. Full length discussions will be resumed on Thursday.

- Reminder: I will post a summary on last weekend's snowstorm by Friday, including a snow map, a discussion of the forecasting of the storm, its impact on the area, and the historical impact the storm had on the region.

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Week And Weekend Forecast Overview:


Wednesday - Thursday: With the cold air mass lifting out of the region, the next two days will bring a gradual warming trend, with temperatures returning to near to slightly above average levels. With a high pressure providing mostly sunny skies, high temperatures will warm up on Wednesday, reaching the mid to upper 50s across the area, and again on Thursday, reaching the upper 50s across most of the area with lower 60s in parts of the immediate NYC area, especially towards NE New Jersey.

Friday - Sunday: A weak low pressure will move towards the Mid Atlantic on Friday, bringing a risk of showers in the southern Mid Atlantic, but will be forced to the south of the area as a much stronger high pressure builds in. This high pressure will be accompanied by sunny skies for this weekend, along with a strong trough moving into the Northeast, leaving the NYC area on its western edge. This will result in near average temperatures, reaching the mid to upper 50s on Friday, lower to mid 50s on Saturday, and the mid to upper 50s on Sunday. The trough combined with the clear skies, however, will bring cold overnight lows as well, dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s north and west of NYC on Friday night.

Monday - Tuesday: With the trough exiting the region on Sunday, a stronger ridge will build into the eastern half of the US, with the storm track shifting into the central US, well to the west of the region. The warming trend will continue through Monday, with temperatures expected to reach the lower 60s across most of the area, with a few mid 60s possible in NE NJ in the warmer case scenario. Tuesday's outlook is more uncertain due to slight uncertainty with the timing of a weak cold front, which in the warmer case scenario would bring high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s across the area, and in the colder case scenario would bring high temperatures into the mid to upper 50s.


Longer Range Thoughts: The cold front on Tuesday will move through the area but should bring very little rain, if any, across the NYC area, with slightly cooler temperatures then expected. Meanwhile, a stronger low pressure is expected to develop further south, in the south central US, and while its track will stay well to the north and west of NYC as well, with the ridge not extending as far north as it will during Monday, rain is likely to affect the region, including the NYC area, around Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Drying is then likely behind this storm, although the smaller details become increasingly uncertain due to the time range. Looking beyond next weekend, however, the potential is there for a more active pattern to set up, which may eventually lead to a colder than average ending to November. More information on my latest long range thoughts can be found in the Long Range Forecasts page.