Sept 14: Update On Tropics, Storm Thursday Night

Notes:

- A new poll has been added for your thoughts on early next week and what temperatures it may bring. Vote your thoughts in the poll, which will close on Sunday.

- The 5-Day Forecast has been updated for the area.

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With a partly sunny day today, things are now cooling down as a cold air mass enters the area. Low temperatures tonight will be very chilly, in the 40s for most of the area except for Long Island and NYC. Despite this, things will warm up in the longer range, with more rain likely for Thursday night and potentially strong storms.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a mostly sunny day. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland, and in the lower to mid 70s for the rest of the area.

Thursday Night Storm Update:

On Thursday, highs will peak in the lower to mid 70s for most of the area with upper 60s-lower 70s for Long Island/S CT due to increasing cloud cover ahead of a cold front. Most of the storm's rain will fall well to our north, but a cold front will pass through overnight, bringing a squall line with locally heavy storms. Gusty winds are also possible on Thursday night, especially when the storms move through. Rainfall amounts up to 1/4 inch are expected, though amounts locally up to 1/2 or 3/4 inch are possible, mainly towards the northern and NW parts of the area.

Temperatures will be steady or slowly rise before the cold front moves through, with dropping temperatures and clearing skies afterwards. Friday will be a dry and partly sunny day with highs in the mid 70s across the area.

Saturday And Longer Range: Warm Up, Significant Warm Up Possible

On Saturday, a strong cold front will be well to our west, with warming temperatures, reaching the mid 70s for most of the area, but upper 60s to lower 70s for S CT/Long Island. On Sunday, as the cold front approaches but weakens, highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s for NYC, with a slightly cooler air mass possible for Monday, though highs shouldn't be much below average. By Tuesday and Wednesday, however, a strong storm could organize to our NW, and it could draw in a large ridge, with highs in the 80s and even lower 90s for the Mid Atlantic up to NYC. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame.


Tropics: Igor, Julia, And Now Karl


Hurricane Igor: Almost A Category 5 Hurricane

Hurricane Igor, currently east of the northernmost Leeward Islands, has weakened slightly over the last day, but is currently strengthening rather quickly, and with a favorable environment, may briefly become a Category 5 hurricane late tonight, however this is uncertain as Igor's eyewall structure is not as organized as it previously was, being why it is more likely to stay as a high-end Category 4 hurricane. To Igor's northwest, there is a less favorable environment, and Igor should start to weaken in the next few days. About its track, it is not expected to affect the East Coast directly, but at this time, it is likely to approach Bermuda. While the models show Igor slightly west of Bermuda, it could end up close enough to bring hurricane conditions to the island. Stay tuned for more details on Igor over the next few days.

Hurricane Julia: Nearly A Category 2 Hurricane

Hurricane Julia in the eastern Atlantic Ocean is slowly intensifying, and is almost a Category 2 hurricane, if not one already. Due to increasingly unfavorable conditions to Julia's NW, it is likely to peak over the next day or two, then start to weaken. Julia will stay away from land.

Tropical Storm Karl To Make 2 Landfalls In Mexico

The tropical invest in the Caribbean that has been briefly mentioned a few days ago has been named Tropical Storm Karl today, and is currently at 45 mph sustained winds and a minimum pressure of 999 mb. Karl is running out of time before making landfall in the Yucatan peninsula, however with a favorable environment, it is quickly intensifying, and may reach 60 mph before its first landfall. Afterwards, it should weaken to a tropical depression, but with a favorable environment again in the southern Gulf of Mexico, Karl will likely become a strong tropical storm before its second landfall, and a Category 1 hurricane cannot be ruled out.

Sept 13: More Rain Thurs, Another Warm Spell?

Note: tonight's blog update will be brief, but the 5-Day Forecast was updated.

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Today brought an unexpected round of strong to severe thunderstorms to the area, with some hail and wind damage across parts of the area, as well as heavy rainfall amounts. In some places, this was the first measurable rain in as much as 19 days, despite only bringing up to 1/4-1/2" at most for a lot of places, and there isn't much relief as there is no widespread heavy rain in sight yet.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy, with a NW wind expected. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s inland, mid to upper 70s for the immediate NYC area, and in the mid 70s for Long Island/S CT.

Thursday And Friday's Storm:

Wednesday will bring temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area, warmer than previously expected, but low temperatures are still likely to follow the previous forecast (more on that in previous posts and the 5-day forecast). Thursday will bring cooler highs, in the mid 60s to lower 70s due to increased cloud cover. Light rain is expected for Thursday night with steady or rising temperatures, but rain amounts will stay below 1/2 inch. Friday will be drier and warmer, with highs back into the 70s.

Longer Range: Warm Spell?

This is the most uncertain part of the forecast. The models are showing a very tight frontal boundary setting up for early next week, but where it sets up is the question. Some models show highs only in the 60s with rain, but others bring highs in the 80s and even 90s. Stay tuned for more details on this over the next few days.


Brief Tropics Update: Hurricane Igor, currently a strong Category 4 hurricane, has rapidly intensified yesterday, and became a Category 4 hurricane much earlier than expected. Despite this, Igor is slightly weakening, and is unlikely to peak as a Category 5 hurricane at this time. I will post more on Igor tomorrow, with a map, but for now, I expect its forecast track to keep shifting south over the next few days as it keeps heading more west than NW, but for the longer range, I think it will stay closer to Bermuda than the United States.

Further east, Tropical Storm Julia is slowly intensifying, but will not become as strong as Igor, and is expected to stay away from land for now.

Sept 13 Update: Severe Storms

5:25 PM: While at first seeming not too likely when I made my last blog update, this morning it became apparent that a round of strong storms could go through southern New York this afternoon. This round of storms, however, was much stronger than expected and further south, with the result being an area of severe storms having affected NW New Jersey and SE New York.

These storms are currently moving southeast, and will affect the western and central parts of the area with heavy rain and thunder. The latest short term forecast has been posted below:


**Click on the image to view it in a larger size.**

Sept 11: Very Chilly Next Week, First Frost?

Blog Notes:

- I have ended the poll about the quality of my Hurricane Earl coverage. If you feel anything needs to be improved, feel free to post your comments on this post or send me an email. Your comments and suggestions are appreciated and will be taken into consideration with future storm coverages.

- The 5-Day Forecast has been updated for the area tonight.

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After a chilly morning, with high temperatures ranging from the mid 40s inland to the mid-upper 50s in NYC, today brought more sunshine to the area, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s inland and the upper 70s to lower 80s in the immediate NYC area. The cool air mass is now moving out of the area ahead of a low pressure that should bring the first rain in over 15 days to the area, but a strong cool air mass will follow, that will potentially bring the fall's first frost and freeze for the interior Northeast.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a cloudy day, with an onshore SE wind expected. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area, with the warmest temperatures in NYC. Looking at the rest of the region, the Northeast will see highs in the 60s due to the cloud cover, with Maryland into Virginia in the lower to mid 70s with a few upper 70s possible.

Meanwhile, a low pressure associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine will move into the area from the west. No heavy rain is expected from this storm, but it is still likely to rain. The rain will start to move into the area between 10 AM and 12 PM, and will stay until the late overnight hours. Generally light rain is expected, though locally moderate showers are also likely. By the time that the rain ends, a total of at least 1/4 inch is expected, with locally higher amounts up to 1/2 inch.

Monday - Tuesday: Briefly Warming Up

By Monday, the storm will be east of the area, but there will still be showers across the Northeast, with an isolated shower possible for the area with mostly cloudy skies and highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. On Tuesday, the cold air mass will start to spread into the area, with high temperatures cooling down into the lower to mid 70s with a few upper 70s possible for the immediate NYC area, with partly cloudy skies.

Wednesday And Thursday: Peak Of Cool Spell

Wednesday will be the coldest day of this cool spell. With 850 mb temperatures only between 2c and 4c, and some cloud cover potentially limiting temperatures, the high temperature will only reach the lower to mid 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s for the rest of the area, which is below the average high temperature. There will be more cloud cover further north, into the Northeast, where scattered showers are expected.

On Wednesday night, with clearing skies, low temperatures will drop into the lower 40s and potentially upper 30s inland, mid to locally upper 40s for the N/W suburbs of NYC and S CT, upper 40s to lower 50s in Long Island, and lower 50s in NYC. The interior Northeast is likely to see the first frost and freeze of the fall, however it is uncertain how far the frost expands. At this time, frost is unlikely for the NW parts of the area, however should the models trend colder, that solution may become possible.

Thursday will be slightly warmer, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area, due to a storm approaching from the west, with increasing cloud cover.

Friday And Beyond:

A strong storm is likely to move into the Northeast on Friday, bringing heavy rain to that region and briefly drawing in a warmer air mass into the area ahead of a cold front. The cold front, however, will bring little or no rain, with a cool airmass coming into the area for Saturday and Sunday with dry conditions and chilly temperatures but not as chilly as Wednesday's cool spell will be. By Monday, a low pressure is expected to form in the Midwest, and by then, with a +NAO returning, the next warm up will likely return into the area.


Tropics Update: Another Hurricane Forms Tonight


Hurricane Igor Update:

Tropical Storm Igor, currently in the eastern Atlantic, is steadily intensifying, and will become a hurricane very shortly. Igor has a supportive environment, and will slowly intensify over the next few days, but afterwards with a favorable environment, and with the model forecasts, Igor is expected to become a Category 4 by mid-late this week. About its track, I am currently thinking that for the short range, it could be slightly south of the model forecasts, though it should stay NE of the Leeward Islands. For the longer range, there is uncertainty, but I am thinking Igor could stay away from the East Coast due to a high pressure over the area at that time. With this scenario, however, Bermuda would need to closely follow Igor, as a lot of models showing this have a direct hit for Bermuda. Stay tuned for more details on Igor, in case it trends closer or away from the East Coast.

Invests 92L and 93L:

There are currently two tropical invests, the first in the eastern Caribbean and the other in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. They have a favorable environment nearby, and are likely to develop into tropical storms within the next few days. The low pressure in the Caribbean is likely to move towards the Yucatan Peninsula, then towards Mexico south of Texas. More updates on these invests will come over the next few days.

Sept 10: Rain Returns On Sunday

Note: The 5-Day Forecast was updated for the area, with new graphics used.

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Today was another mostly cloudy and chilly day, with highs only in the upper 60s across most of the area. Due to this cloud cover, however, this morning's temperatures were warmer than expected, and with the cloud cover still in place, I went slightly warmer with tonight's forecast than my previous forecast did. Temperatures will warm up again over the next few days, other than Sunday when a widespread rain event is expected, but cooler temperatures will return again by the middle of the week.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will be a mostly sunny day across the area, with high temperatures warming up into the mid to upper 70s inland, upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate NYC area, and with an east wind, Long Island and S CT will reach the mid 70s.

Looking at the rest of the region, dry conditions are expected, with high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s in the Northeast to the upper 70s to lower 80s in Virginia.

Sunday-Monday: Wet Weather Returns

A weak low pressure with the remnants of Tropical Storm Hermine will approach the area from the west on Sunday, with cloudy skies expected, and with an onshore wind, high temperatures will only reach the lower to mid 70s for the immediate NYC area, upper 60s to lower 70s inland, and the lower 70s for S CT and Long Island. Meanwhile, rain will start to enter the area during the afternoon hours, with light to locally moderate/heavy rain, and will exit by the late overnight hours. Rainfall amounts will be generally near 1/4 inch, with amounts up to 1/2 inch possible. Some models have been showing widespread 1+ inch amounts, but looking at their history, they may be too wet.

This rainfall, however, will not be enough to prevent the dry conditions from getting much worse, as a moderate drought is back for most of New Jersey, with a severe drought even showing up in central NJ. A widespread heavy rain event is unlikely at this time, and the drought could persist and potentially intensify for the next 2 weeks.

Monday will be drier with partly cloudy skies and an isolated shower or two, though high temperatures will warm up again into the upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate NYC area ahead of a cold front.

Tuesday - Friday: Significant Cool Down

As previously mentioned, a large trough will move into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Tuesday night/Wednesday. The models are not yet consistent on a solution, with the ECMWF barely even showing a cool down, but based on the pattern, I am thinking that temperatures could reach the lower to upper 60s across the area, with lows in the lower 40s inland and mid 40s-lower 50s for the immediate NYC area, with the coolest temperatures on Wednesday and Wednesday night. More details on this will come over the next few days.

Meanwhile, a potentially strong storm could move through the Northeast on Friday, bringing heavy rain to that region, but little rain to the area. This scenario, however, would bring a brief yet significant warm up, with cooler conditions to follow behind the cold front. Stay tuned for more details on this potential scenario.

Sept 9: Cool Spell Starts Today

This morning was a chilly one across the area as a trough moves in, and this will also be reflected with today's highs, which will only reach the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area. Temperatures will warm up again during the weekend into early next week, only to go down again by mid-late next week with a significant cool down that will bring the coolest temperatures so far this fall.

Today's Outlook:

Today will be a mostly cloudy day across the area with a gusty NW wind. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s to potentially lower 70s inland, lower to potentially mid 70s in the immediate NYC area, and the lower to mid 70s for Long Island and S CT.

Looking at New England and the rest of New York, high temperatures will generally be in the 60s, with lower 70s in the south/eastern parts of the NE, and 50s in the mountains, where rain is expected. In Virginia, high temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s with dry conditions expected.

Tonight - Saturday: Very Chilly Nights

Tonight will be cooler than this morning, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s inland, upper 40s to lower 50s for S CT and the N/W suburbs of NYC, lower to mid 50s for Long Island, and the mid to upper 50s for NYC. The cooler spots in eastern Long Island will likely reach the upper 40s.

Friday will be another chilly day, with similar temperatures to today, but the overnight hours will be even cooler, with low temperatures in the mid, potentially lower 40s inland, upper 40s to lower 50s for S CT and the N/W suburbs of NYC, lower 50s for Long Island, and mid 50s for NYC.

Sunday-Tuesday Update:

I made very little changes to my forecast for this time period, except for lowering the temperatures on Sunday to the lower to mid 70s for the area due to the cloud cover and rain. Rainfall amounts between 0.2 and 0.4 inch are expected, with amounts locally as high as 3/4 inch possible.

Monday will be dry with temperatures similar to those of Saturday, with Tuesday potentially slightly warmer as a cold front approaches, bringing scattered showers but very little rain.

Wednesday - Significant Cool Down Starts

As I mentioned over the last few days, a significant cool down is expected to start on Wednesday, as a strong trough moves in and brings 850 mb temperatures between 2c and 6c. Based on this, the average temperatures for this time of the year, the expected pattern and looking some at the models, I am thinking that high temperatures in the lower to upper 60s are possible across the area, with low temperatures in the upper 30s possible inland, with mid-upper 40s for most of the immediate NYC area. This can still change, though these are my current thoughts. The GFS model is very cold with this, bringing high temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s and lows in the 30s to lower 40s, however this is most likely too cold, considering the GFS has a cold bias. Stay tuned for more details on this cool down.

Brief Tropics Update: Igor in the eastern Atlantic Ocean has weakened, and is almost a tropical depression. There is still uncertainty on Igor's future, as it is uncertain where it ends up in the longer range with a very large range, and while I think it is unlikely at this time, I will keep an eye on Igor in case the track shifts towards the area.

Sept 8: Chilly Long Range, But Will Tropics Return?

Note: The 5-Day Forecast was updated today for the area. I am also trying an experimental thing where I add the lowest and highest temperature of the week, as well as the potential temperature range. I will try this for a week before deciding whether to keep it or not.

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As a cold front moved through the area, despite a few morning showers, today was another hot day for parts of the area, with Newark, NJ reaching the lower 90s again, making this their 52nd day of 90+ degrees. Fortunately, relief is already on the way as a trough moves into the region, bringing high temperatures into the upper 60s to mid 70s, and low temperatures in the 40s inland for Thursday and Friday.

While things will warm up by early next week, there is the potential for a rather large cool down, but at the same time, we may have to watch the tropics once again, as Tropical Storm Igor may try to take an Earl-like track and approach the East Coast as a hurricane in the longer range.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow (Thursday) will be a partly cloudy day with a NW wind expected. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s inland, lower 70s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, lower to mid 70s for NYC, and the lower to mid 70s for S CT and Long Island. An isolated shower is possible for the northern parts of the area, however any shower should be light at best.

Friday And Saturday Outlook:

Thursday and Friday nights will be chilly for the area again, with low temperatures in the mid to potentially upper 40s inland, lower 50s for the NW suburbs of NYC and S CT, mid 50s for Long Island, and mid to upper 50s for NYC. Friday's highs will be similar to those of tomorrow, with Saturday warming up, with upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate NYC area and mid-upper 70s elsewhere.

Sunday - Tuesday: Stormy, Then Clearing

Parts of the area have note seen measurable rainfall for almost 15 days, but the dry conditions won't last for long, however. A low pressure related to Hermine's remnants will move through the area, bringing light to moderate rain and storms. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, though a widespread heavy rain event is unlikely. Amounts will likely range from 0.1 to 0.4 inch, with amounts locally as high as 3/4 or potentially 1 inch in the heavier showers. With a SE onshore wind, temperatures will stay in the mid 70s for the highs. Note that I could lower the forecast temperatures with my next update.

By Monday, the storm will clear the area, and temperatures will warm up again to the upper 70s to lower 80s for the immediate NYC area and mid to upper 70s for the rest of the area for Monday and Tuesday, with dry conditions for Monday. A low pressure could form to our north on Tuesday, enhancing the rain to our north and bringing warmer temperatures than expected for the area, however this is still uncertain and will be watched. Otherwise, a cold front will pass through, with scattered showers.

Wednesday And Beyond: Significant Cool Down, Tropics?

By Wednesday, a large trough will move into the area, with high temperatures cooling down into the 60s and 70s for the northern Mid Atlantic. There is uncertainty with the intensity of the cool air mass and the coldest day, but it is possible that the coldest high temperatures could be in the mid-upper 60s for the area, with low temperatures in the 40s as far as the immediate NYC area. More details on this will come over the next few days.

Meanwhile, however, a potentially intense hurricane Igor will be in the Atlantic Ocean, close to the Leeward Islands. If the trough can hold itself long enough and Igor is far north enough, it will likely recurve out to sea, and at this time, I am thinking that Igor could stay out to sea, especially with a -NAO pattern likely preventing a direct East Coast hit, but this is still in the longer range and can still change. Stay tuned for more details on Igor.