July 11, 2013 Noon Update

1:10 PM: Lower Storm Risk Today

Early this morning, around 6-7 AM, a severe thunderstorm developed over SW CT, producing strong wind gusts, and spread heavy rain and thunder through the rest of southern-central CT where radar estimates show at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain fell, locally up to 1 inch. Scattered showers and thunderstorms affected the rest of the area in the meantime, with less than 1/4 inch observed.

Since then, the rain has cleared the area with dry and cloudy conditions. The outlook today was for widespread cloud cover to limit instability and thus limit any risk of severe thunderstorms, although the cold front was faster than expected, especially compared to yesterday's model guidance, and according to the latest WPC surface analysis is already near NYC, with northern NJ and SE NY having switched to a northwesterly wind. Based on the faster cold front timing and the latest high resolution short term model guidance, additional widespread thunderstorm initiation is unlikely later this afternoon, with only isolated storm coverage through the rest of the afternoon and evening while the more widespread heavy storms stay south and east of the area.

As a result of the forecast change, no storm updates will be posted today. The next forecast discussion will be posted in the next few hours, with more information on the upcoming heat wave for next week, which may be even stronger than last week's heat wave.