Note:
- I have created a new page for the website, being the "Weather Alerts" page, replacing the "Severe Weather/Tropics" page. In there, I will create weather alerts, however they are not created by the National Weather Service, and should not be used instead of the NWS, but rather to see my thoughts on the potential for hazardous weather. Comments and suggestions on the page are appreciated, and will be taken into consideration when I decide whether to keep it or not.
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Today was a rather chilly day across the area, with highs back into the upper 60s to mid 70s, however temperatures are already dropping with what will be the coolest night yet this fall. I have issued a Frost Alert for the interior areas (more on that in the Weather Alerts page), where low temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s and could be as low as the mid 30s. The N/W suburbs of NYC and southern Connecticut will see lows in the lower to upper 40s, Long Island in the mid to upper 40s, and NYC in the lower to potentially mid 50s.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
Tomorrow will be another sunny and chilly day, with a south wind expected. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s across most of the area, except for S CT/Long Island, which will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Wednesday - Saturday: Very Warm
As I mentioned in yesterday's discussion, Wednesday is expected to be a very warm day, with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 80s to lower 90s in the immediate NYC area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland and lower to upper 60s for the rest of the area.
By Thursday, the cold front will stall close to the area, however high temperatures will still be rather warm for this time of the year. Due to the models trending warmer and changing the wind direction more towards the south/west than north/east due to trending north, I raised my forecast high temperatures, now expecting highs in the mid to potentially upper 80s for NYC and lower to mid 80s inland. Long Island/S CT will be cooler due to an onshore wind. Note that this is still subject to slight changes.
Friday will bring the return of warm conditions, with highs similar to, if not slightly warmer than those of Wednesday, however Friday night will be mild as the cold front approaches, with lows in the lower to mid 60s inland and the upper 60s to lower 70s in the immediate NYC area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for Saturday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s, but Saturday's highs are still subject to change.
Sunday-Monday: Storm, Or Cool Down?
By Sunday, uncertainty returns to the forecast. As I mentioned yesterday, a storm could form, however today's models backed away from this, and instead show a significant cool down with highs only in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows in the 30s to lower 40s. I will post more on this tomorrow, once uncertainty could clear a little more.
Brief Tropics Update: A new tropical depression has formed in the eastern Atlantic, and will likely be named Lisa over the next few days. Lisa is not a threat to land at this time. Igor is currently turning extra-tropical, and will likely have its last advisory issued very soon.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Sept 19: Return Of 90+ Degrees?
Notes:
- The 5-Day Forecast was updated for the area, including how warm it could get for the area between Wednesday and Friday. The poll for the hottest temperature during this time frame remains open until Tuesday, vote your thoughts if you have not done so yet.
- The tropics have been discussed today in the bottom of the post, where you will find details about hurricane Igor, potential Tropical Storm Lisa, and another tropical cyclone that could form next week in the Caribbean.
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Today was a rather mild day across the area, with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s inland to the mid 80s in parts of the immediate NYC area. There are currently some isolated showers moving through, however these should only be isolated and light at best, with most locations staying dry. Tomorrow and Tuesday will be cooler, however a surge of warmth will bring much warmer temperatures for Wednesday through Friday, with some places potentially reaching the 90 degree mark once again.
Monday And Tuesday Outlook:
Tomorrow will be a mostly sunny day, with a cooler air mass expected. High temperatures will be in the lower 70s inland, mid 70s in the immediate NYC area, and lower to mid 70s for S CT/Long Island. Tomorrow night will bring very chilly temperatures as the cold air mass starts to exit, with low temperatures in the lower 40s and potentially upper 30s inland, mid to upper 40s with a few lower 50s for the N/W suburbs of NYC, mid to upper 40s for S CT, upper 40s to lower 50s in Long Island (with the exception of the cool spots in eastern LI), and lower to mid 50s in NYC.
Tuesday will start to warm up as a warm front approaches from the southwest, with high temperatures similar to, if not slightly warmer than those of Monday.
Wednesday-Friday : Two Storms, Big Surge Of Heat
**Note: I took my time to make a discussion for this time frame, discussing the likely scenario and the other possibilites. If this is too long for you to read, you can find the forecast temperatures for your area in the 5-Day Forecast page.**
On Wednesday, a warm front related to a storm well to our northwest will move through the area, bringing a much warmer air mass. 850 mb temperatures are likely to be near 18c, leading to high temperatures in the mid 80s inland and upper 80s in the immediate NYC area, with lower 90s also possible in NYC in the warmer case scenario. The GFS, however, is showing slightly cooler temperatures despite being colder than the rest of the models, with highs in the lower to mid 80s in NYC, and while this solution is not the most likely at this time, it also cannot be ruled out.
Overnight, the cold front will approach, and with a potentially favorable set up, scattered thunderstorms, potentially strong, are likely for the area. These storms, though, aren't likely to bring more than locally heavy rainfall, with generally light rainfall amounts likely.
On Thursday, it now appears that the warm air mass will stay far north enough to bring warm temperatures to the area, but how warm is the question as an east wind could limit the temperatures. The air mass, given that there is no rain expected, would support high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s inland and mid 80s for NYC, however this is in the warmer case scenario, and it could be cooler due to a SE-E wind and/or a slightly different placement of the stalled front. At this time, I am going slightly lower than the above, expecting highs in the lower 80s for NYC, and upper 70s to lower 80s inland with mid to potentially upper 70s for Long Island/S CT, but note that this is still subject to change.
Another storm will then organize to our northwest on Friday, however the models have trended slower and further north for this storm. While the models will still shift around a little over the next few days, I do think that a slightly slower and further north solution than yesterday's forecast is becoming more likely. 850 mb temperatures will rise into the 18c-20c range again, and with a SW wind returning, high temperatures could reach the upper 80s to lower 90s again in the immediate NYC area. The cold front, however, will be slow to reach the area, and will only start bringing rain by Friday night. With this, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected.
The cold front could pass any time between late Friday night and Saturday afternoon, at this time I am going in between with a cold frontal passage during Saturday morning but note that I could shift it towards Saturday afternoon.
Weekend Outlook: Dry Saturday, Wet Sunday/Monday?
The cold front should move through on Saturday, bringing high temperatures closer to but still above average, potentially between the mid 70s to lower 80s. If the cold front on the models stays the same or trends slower, however, temperatures would likely be warmer, in the lower to upper 80s. By Sunday, the cold front should be to our south, however it is possible that the cold front nearly stalls, with a low pressure developing along the cold front, as some models have been showing. If this happens, there is uncertainty on where it forms and tracks and who gets rain, but any storm would be to our south, meaning that if we do get rain, it will likely be the steady, chilly type of rain. More details on this potential will be posted over the next few days, including who is likely to get rain and how much.
Tropics: Igor Weakening, Lisa And Matthew To Come Next
Hurricane Igor, currently a weak Category 1, has weakened faster than expected, and is barely a hurricane, though it is still producing strong winds and heavy rainfall in Bermuda. Despite this, however, Igor is undoubtedly one of the largest storms recorded in the Atlantic Ocean, leading to a greater impact on Bermuda than a typical Category 1 hurricane would have. Igor is then expected to move northeast and potentially weaken to a tropical storm, but then intensify again as it becomes an extra-tropical cyclone, absorbing the remnants of Julia at the same time.
Meanwhile, there are two potential tropical cyclone formations. An invest in the eastern Atlantic Ocean is becoming more organized, and could be named Tropical Storm Lisa over the next day or two. Lisa is currently not a threat to land.
The second potential, however, is a threat to land. All of the models are hinting at a low pressure developing into a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean around Sunday or Monday the 26-27th. This is still in the longer range, and the models vary with the direction of this tropical cyclone, ranging from a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico to a hurricane moving up the East Coast (which the GFS has been showing), however what we can take from this is that a tropical cyclone may form in the Caribbean and move north or NW, affecting land. If this potential stays, more details on it will come over the next few days.
- The 5-Day Forecast was updated for the area, including how warm it could get for the area between Wednesday and Friday. The poll for the hottest temperature during this time frame remains open until Tuesday, vote your thoughts if you have not done so yet.
- The tropics have been discussed today in the bottom of the post, where you will find details about hurricane Igor, potential Tropical Storm Lisa, and another tropical cyclone that could form next week in the Caribbean.
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Today was a rather mild day across the area, with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s inland to the mid 80s in parts of the immediate NYC area. There are currently some isolated showers moving through, however these should only be isolated and light at best, with most locations staying dry. Tomorrow and Tuesday will be cooler, however a surge of warmth will bring much warmer temperatures for Wednesday through Friday, with some places potentially reaching the 90 degree mark once again.
Monday And Tuesday Outlook:
Tomorrow will be a mostly sunny day, with a cooler air mass expected. High temperatures will be in the lower 70s inland, mid 70s in the immediate NYC area, and lower to mid 70s for S CT/Long Island. Tomorrow night will bring very chilly temperatures as the cold air mass starts to exit, with low temperatures in the lower 40s and potentially upper 30s inland, mid to upper 40s with a few lower 50s for the N/W suburbs of NYC, mid to upper 40s for S CT, upper 40s to lower 50s in Long Island (with the exception of the cool spots in eastern LI), and lower to mid 50s in NYC.
Tuesday will start to warm up as a warm front approaches from the southwest, with high temperatures similar to, if not slightly warmer than those of Monday.
Wednesday-Friday : Two Storms, Big Surge Of Heat
**Note: I took my time to make a discussion for this time frame, discussing the likely scenario and the other possibilites. If this is too long for you to read, you can find the forecast temperatures for your area in the 5-Day Forecast page.**
On Wednesday, a warm front related to a storm well to our northwest will move through the area, bringing a much warmer air mass. 850 mb temperatures are likely to be near 18c, leading to high temperatures in the mid 80s inland and upper 80s in the immediate NYC area, with lower 90s also possible in NYC in the warmer case scenario. The GFS, however, is showing slightly cooler temperatures despite being colder than the rest of the models, with highs in the lower to mid 80s in NYC, and while this solution is not the most likely at this time, it also cannot be ruled out.Overnight, the cold front will approach, and with a potentially favorable set up, scattered thunderstorms, potentially strong, are likely for the area. These storms, though, aren't likely to bring more than locally heavy rainfall, with generally light rainfall amounts likely.
On Thursday, it now appears that the warm air mass will stay far north enough to bring warm temperatures to the area, but how warm is the question as an east wind could limit the temperatures. The air mass, given that there is no rain expected, would support high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s inland and mid 80s for NYC, however this is in the warmer case scenario, and it could be cooler due to a SE-E wind and/or a slightly different placement of the stalled front. At this time, I am going slightly lower than the above, expecting highs in the lower 80s for NYC, and upper 70s to lower 80s inland with mid to potentially upper 70s for Long Island/S CT, but note that this is still subject to change.
Another storm will then organize to our northwest on Friday, however the models have trended slower and further north for this storm. While the models will still shift around a little over the next few days, I do think that a slightly slower and further north solution than yesterday's forecast is becoming more likely. 850 mb temperatures will rise into the 18c-20c range again, and with a SW wind returning, high temperatures could reach the upper 80s to lower 90s again in the immediate NYC area. The cold front, however, will be slow to reach the area, and will only start bringing rain by Friday night. With this, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected.
The cold front could pass any time between late Friday night and Saturday afternoon, at this time I am going in between with a cold frontal passage during Saturday morning but note that I could shift it towards Saturday afternoon.
Weekend Outlook: Dry Saturday, Wet Sunday/Monday?
The cold front should move through on Saturday, bringing high temperatures closer to but still above average, potentially between the mid 70s to lower 80s. If the cold front on the models stays the same or trends slower, however, temperatures would likely be warmer, in the lower to upper 80s. By Sunday, the cold front should be to our south, however it is possible that the cold front nearly stalls, with a low pressure developing along the cold front, as some models have been showing. If this happens, there is uncertainty on where it forms and tracks and who gets rain, but any storm would be to our south, meaning that if we do get rain, it will likely be the steady, chilly type of rain. More details on this potential will be posted over the next few days, including who is likely to get rain and how much.
Tropics: Igor Weakening, Lisa And Matthew To Come Next
Hurricane Igor, currently a weak Category 1, has weakened faster than expected, and is barely a hurricane, though it is still producing strong winds and heavy rainfall in Bermuda. Despite this, however, Igor is undoubtedly one of the largest storms recorded in the Atlantic Ocean, leading to a greater impact on Bermuda than a typical Category 1 hurricane would have. Igor is then expected to move northeast and potentially weaken to a tropical storm, but then intensify again as it becomes an extra-tropical cyclone, absorbing the remnants of Julia at the same time.
Meanwhile, there are two potential tropical cyclone formations. An invest in the eastern Atlantic Ocean is becoming more organized, and could be named Tropical Storm Lisa over the next day or two. Lisa is currently not a threat to land.
The second potential, however, is a threat to land. All of the models are hinting at a low pressure developing into a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean around Sunday or Monday the 26-27th. This is still in the longer range, and the models vary with the direction of this tropical cyclone, ranging from a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico to a hurricane moving up the East Coast (which the GFS has been showing), however what we can take from this is that a tropical cyclone may form in the Caribbean and move north or NW, affecting land. If this potential stays, more details on it will come over the next few days.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Sept 18: Warmth Returns On Wednesday
Note: The 5-Day Forecast was updated tonight. The poll on the hottest temperatures between Wednesday-Friday also remains open until Tuesday.
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Today was a nice day for the area, with highs generally in the lower 70s, though tomorrow will be warmer ahead of a cold front. Monday and Tuesday will be cooler, but afterwards there is the potential for what could bring the last 90 degree day or two for parts of the area.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with a SW wind expected. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s inland, lower 80s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid to upper 70s for Long Island/S CT. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible tomorrow night as a cold front moves through, however any shower should be light.
Monday And Tuesday: Cooler, Sunny
By Monday, a cooler air mass will move into the area. As I have thought, the models were too cold at first, and have trended warmer, now showing mid-upper 70s for parts of the area, however based on their history, I am thinking this could be a little too warm, and I am expected mid to potentially lower 70s in the immediate NYC area, lower 70s inland, and lower to mid 70s for Long Island/S CT. Overnight temperatures will be chilly, in the lower to mid 40s inland, mid to upper 40s for S CT, upper 40s to lower 50s for the N/W suburbs of NYC and Long Island, and lower to mid 50s for NYC.
On Tuesday, a warm front will approach from the southwest, however an east wind will limit the temperatures, with highs in the lower to potentially mid 70s for most of the area except Long Island/S CT, which should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Wednesday-Friday: Significant Warm Up, Storms Possible
As I have mentioned over the last few days, a storm will organize well to our northwest on Wednesday, bringing in a much warmer air mass. High temperatures will likely rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s inland and lower to mid 80s for the immediate NYC area. The cold front moving through overnight, with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely and lows generally in the 60s. On Thursday, the frontal boundary will likely set up close to the area, however there is still uncertainty on the high temperatures, which could range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Due to an east wind possible, I am leaning towards the lower end of this range at this time.
By Friday, another storm, but stronger and further south than Wednesday's storm, will affect the Northeast. This could bring in temperatures potentially warmer than those of Wednesday, which would be in the upper 80s to potentially lower 90s for the immediate NYC area. The cold front will then move through on Friday night, and with the set up in place, strong or potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible with the cold front.
Saturday-Sunday: Cooler, But Another Potential Storm?
After the cold front moves through, Saturday will bring drier conditions and cooler temperatures, with high temperatures near-below average, in the 60s and 70s for the northern Mid Atlantic, even though there is uncertainty on how strong the cold air mass is. On Sunday, however, a few models have been showing a storm affecting the area. The GFS is the most extreme, showing a nor'easter with lows in the 30s and potentially snow mixing with the rain for the interior parts of the area, however this solution is an outlier and is not expected to happen. This only started showing up on the models recently, so details for this time frame may change around over the next few days. Stay tuned for more details for next weekend.
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Today was a nice day for the area, with highs generally in the lower 70s, though tomorrow will be warmer ahead of a cold front. Monday and Tuesday will be cooler, but afterwards there is the potential for what could bring the last 90 degree day or two for parts of the area.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with a SW wind expected. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s inland, lower 80s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid to upper 70s for Long Island/S CT. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible tomorrow night as a cold front moves through, however any shower should be light.
Monday And Tuesday: Cooler, Sunny
By Monday, a cooler air mass will move into the area. As I have thought, the models were too cold at first, and have trended warmer, now showing mid-upper 70s for parts of the area, however based on their history, I am thinking this could be a little too warm, and I am expected mid to potentially lower 70s in the immediate NYC area, lower 70s inland, and lower to mid 70s for Long Island/S CT. Overnight temperatures will be chilly, in the lower to mid 40s inland, mid to upper 40s for S CT, upper 40s to lower 50s for the N/W suburbs of NYC and Long Island, and lower to mid 50s for NYC.
On Tuesday, a warm front will approach from the southwest, however an east wind will limit the temperatures, with highs in the lower to potentially mid 70s for most of the area except Long Island/S CT, which should be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Wednesday-Friday: Significant Warm Up, Storms Possible
As I have mentioned over the last few days, a storm will organize well to our northwest on Wednesday, bringing in a much warmer air mass. High temperatures will likely rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s inland and lower to mid 80s for the immediate NYC area. The cold front moving through overnight, with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely and lows generally in the 60s. On Thursday, the frontal boundary will likely set up close to the area, however there is still uncertainty on the high temperatures, which could range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Due to an east wind possible, I am leaning towards the lower end of this range at this time.
By Friday, another storm, but stronger and further south than Wednesday's storm, will affect the Northeast. This could bring in temperatures potentially warmer than those of Wednesday, which would be in the upper 80s to potentially lower 90s for the immediate NYC area. The cold front will then move through on Friday night, and with the set up in place, strong or potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible with the cold front.
Saturday-Sunday: Cooler, But Another Potential Storm?
After the cold front moves through, Saturday will bring drier conditions and cooler temperatures, with high temperatures near-below average, in the 60s and 70s for the northern Mid Atlantic, even though there is uncertainty on how strong the cold air mass is. On Sunday, however, a few models have been showing a storm affecting the area. The GFS is the most extreme, showing a nor'easter with lows in the 30s and potentially snow mixing with the rain for the interior parts of the area, however this solution is an outlier and is not expected to happen. This only started showing up on the models recently, so details for this time frame may change around over the next few days. Stay tuned for more details for next weekend.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Sept 17: Two Tornadoes Confirmed In NYC Yesterday
Blog Notes:
- The 5-Day Forecast was updated tonight.
- The poll for the hottest temperature between Wednesday-Friday remains open for the next few days. Vote your thoughts on the poll if you have not done so yet.
- With two tornadoes now having been confirmed, a storm summary will be posted on yesterday's event over the next few days.
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After yesterday's storms, where a tornado has been confirmed in central New Jersey with a high wind report in Queens, today was a much nicer day for the area. After the National Weather Service examined the damage, not one, but two tornadoes were confirmed in NYC, the first an EF0 in Brooklyn near Park Slope, and the second an EF1 tornado in Queens near Flushing and Bayside. There was also a microburst observed near Forest Hills, Queens. A storm summary will be posted on this over the next few days, with more details on what happened.
The next few days will be dry and comfortable, with slightly warmer temperatures on Sunday and colder temperatures on Monday, but the warm conditions may return again by mid-late next week.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
Tomorrow will be a partly sunny day, with clearing skies likely and a SSE wind expected. High temperatures will rise into the mid 70s inland and in the immediate NYC area, with lower 70s for Long Island and S CT.
Sunday - Tuesday: Warm, Then Cooling Down
On Sunday, as the cold front approaches the area, temperatures are expected to warm up, and will likely reach the lower 80s for the immediate NYC area, with mid to upper 70s for the interior and Long Island/S CT. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible, however there is a low chance of this happening, and partly sunny skies are expected.
A colder air mass will move into the area by Monday, however yesterday's models were likely overestimating the intensity of this cold air mass, and have since trended warmer. High temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s are expected for the area on Monday, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 40s inland, mid 40s to lower 50s for the N/W suburbs of NYC and southern CT, upper 40s to lower 50s for Long Island, and lower to mid 50s for NYC. Tuesday will be slightly warmer as a warm from approaches from the SW.
Wednesday-Friday: Return Of Warmth
As I have mentioned with my updates over the last few days, a significant warm up is possible by mid-late next week. A storm on Wednesday will track to our north and west, however this will also draw in a much warmer air mass. 850 mb temperatures are expected to pass 15c and may approach 20c, leading to high temperatures potentially rising into the lower to mid 80s, and upper 80s may be possible in the warmer case scenario, although no model shows this at this time. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible for Wednesday night as the cold front moves nearby, but widespread moderate to heavy rain is unlikely.
The cold front is expected to approach the area by Thursday, however there is uncertainty on how far south the warm air mass retreats. It is possible that it stays far north enough to bring another day of low 80s for the area, or it moves south to give highs potentially near the mid-upper 70s. By Friday, however, another storm, potentially stronger, will likely organize well to our northwest, and should draw in a potentially warmer air mass. If some models verify, this will bring upper 80s for the area, with lower 90s even possible, however this is still uncertain. More details on this potential will come over the next few days.
By the weekend, a cooler air mass should move in, bringing temperatures back to the near-below average range.
Tropics: Mexico Hit By Karl, Bermuda Next In Line
Hurricane Karl made landfall earlier today in southern Mexico, as a Category 3 hurricane. Karl peaked as a strong Category 3 hurricane before making landfall, and could've reached Category 4 intensity, however interaction with Mexico slightly weakened Karl before landfall. Karl set the record for the southernmost major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, being very close to the Mexican coast, while most hurricanes in that region are much further north.
Hurricane Julia, meanwhile, has weakened and is barely a hurricane, and due to an unfavorable environment, is expected to continue weakening. Julia may become a tropical depression over the next few days, and Julia or its remnants will likely be absorbed by Igor once it is almost an extra-tropical storm.
Hurricane Igor:
Hurricane Igor has weakened more than expected, and is now down to a Category 2 hurricane. Despite this, Igor has grown in size even more, and is now even larger than other massive hurricanes, such as Ike of 2008 and Katrina of 2005. Igor is expected to maintain its intensity for the next few days, but may weaken to a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday or Monday.
Igor's eye is expected to pass very close to, if not over Bermuda. This would bring hurricane conditions to the island, with tropical storm conditions lasting for a longer period of time, mainly due to Igor's massive size. Igor will be weaker than Fabian of 2003 was when passing near Bermuda, but it will still be capable of producing potentially significant damage there. Igor will then turn northeast and stay out to sea while speeding up and turning extra-tropical.
- The 5-Day Forecast was updated tonight.
- The poll for the hottest temperature between Wednesday-Friday remains open for the next few days. Vote your thoughts on the poll if you have not done so yet.
- With two tornadoes now having been confirmed, a storm summary will be posted on yesterday's event over the next few days.
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After yesterday's storms, where a tornado has been confirmed in central New Jersey with a high wind report in Queens, today was a much nicer day for the area. After the National Weather Service examined the damage, not one, but two tornadoes were confirmed in NYC, the first an EF0 in Brooklyn near Park Slope, and the second an EF1 tornado in Queens near Flushing and Bayside. There was also a microburst observed near Forest Hills, Queens. A storm summary will be posted on this over the next few days, with more details on what happened.
The next few days will be dry and comfortable, with slightly warmer temperatures on Sunday and colder temperatures on Monday, but the warm conditions may return again by mid-late next week.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
Tomorrow will be a partly sunny day, with clearing skies likely and a SSE wind expected. High temperatures will rise into the mid 70s inland and in the immediate NYC area, with lower 70s for Long Island and S CT.
Sunday - Tuesday: Warm, Then Cooling Down
On Sunday, as the cold front approaches the area, temperatures are expected to warm up, and will likely reach the lower 80s for the immediate NYC area, with mid to upper 70s for the interior and Long Island/S CT. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible, however there is a low chance of this happening, and partly sunny skies are expected.
A colder air mass will move into the area by Monday, however yesterday's models were likely overestimating the intensity of this cold air mass, and have since trended warmer. High temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s are expected for the area on Monday, with overnight lows in the lower to mid 40s inland, mid 40s to lower 50s for the N/W suburbs of NYC and southern CT, upper 40s to lower 50s for Long Island, and lower to mid 50s for NYC. Tuesday will be slightly warmer as a warm from approaches from the SW.
Wednesday-Friday: Return Of Warmth
As I have mentioned with my updates over the last few days, a significant warm up is possible by mid-late next week. A storm on Wednesday will track to our north and west, however this will also draw in a much warmer air mass. 850 mb temperatures are expected to pass 15c and may approach 20c, leading to high temperatures potentially rising into the lower to mid 80s, and upper 80s may be possible in the warmer case scenario, although no model shows this at this time. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible for Wednesday night as the cold front moves nearby, but widespread moderate to heavy rain is unlikely.
The cold front is expected to approach the area by Thursday, however there is uncertainty on how far south the warm air mass retreats. It is possible that it stays far north enough to bring another day of low 80s for the area, or it moves south to give highs potentially near the mid-upper 70s. By Friday, however, another storm, potentially stronger, will likely organize well to our northwest, and should draw in a potentially warmer air mass. If some models verify, this will bring upper 80s for the area, with lower 90s even possible, however this is still uncertain. More details on this potential will come over the next few days.
By the weekend, a cooler air mass should move in, bringing temperatures back to the near-below average range.
Tropics: Mexico Hit By Karl, Bermuda Next In Line
Hurricane Karl made landfall earlier today in southern Mexico, as a Category 3 hurricane. Karl peaked as a strong Category 3 hurricane before making landfall, and could've reached Category 4 intensity, however interaction with Mexico slightly weakened Karl before landfall. Karl set the record for the southernmost major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, being very close to the Mexican coast, while most hurricanes in that region are much further north.
Hurricane Julia, meanwhile, has weakened and is barely a hurricane, and due to an unfavorable environment, is expected to continue weakening. Julia may become a tropical depression over the next few days, and Julia or its remnants will likely be absorbed by Igor once it is almost an extra-tropical storm.
Hurricane Igor:
Hurricane Igor has weakened more than expected, and is now down to a Category 2 hurricane. Despite this, Igor has grown in size even more, and is now even larger than other massive hurricanes, such as Ike of 2008 and Katrina of 2005. Igor is expected to maintain its intensity for the next few days, but may weaken to a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday or Monday.Igor's eye is expected to pass very close to, if not over Bermuda. This would bring hurricane conditions to the island, with tropical storm conditions lasting for a longer period of time, mainly due to Igor's massive size. Igor will be weaker than Fabian of 2003 was when passing near Bermuda, but it will still be capable of producing potentially significant damage there. Igor will then turn northeast and stay out to sea while speeding up and turning extra-tropical.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Sept 16: Dry And Comfortable Weekend Ahead
After today's damaging storms in the immediate NYC area, which caused widespread damage from central NJ through Brooklyn and Staten Island into western Long Island, the area will get a break from the stormy conditions. It has not been determined yet whether this was a tornado or not, though a storm summary will be posted on this event once it is clear what caused the damage.
For the short term, some light to moderate rain will fall before midnight, with another round of storms possible after midnight, but they will not be as strong as the storms that went through for this afternoon. The round after midnight is actually the line that was originally supposed to be the strong storm line, but the afternoon line became stronger.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
Tomorrow will start out mostly cloudy, then clear to mostly sunny by the end of the day, with a north wind expected. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s for most of the area, though a few upper 70s cannot be ruled out for the immediate NYC area.
Weekend Outlook: Dry, Comfortable
On Saturday, a slightly warmer air mass will approach the area, but highs will be similar to those of tomorrow, with mostly sunny skies expected. Sunday, however, will be warmer as a cold front approaches from the west, bringing partly cloudy skies and a chance of a few showers or thunderstorms. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s inland and in S CT/Long Island, with the immediate NYC area in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Monday And Tuesday: Chilly Conditions Return
By Monday, a trough will move into the area behind the cold front, and while it will not be long lasting, it will bring below average temperatures. Highs will range from the upper 60s (potentially mid 60s) inland, to the lower 70s in the immediate NYC area, with upper 60s to lower 70s for Long Island/S CT. Overnight lows will be chilly, similar to those of this morning, with Tuesday slightly warming up.
Late Week Warm Spell
By Wednesday, the storm track will shift well to the northwest of the area, and as a result, a large ridge is likely to build into the area. High temperatures are expected to reach the 80s by Wednesday, with 90s possible for the southern and central Mid Atlantic. There is uncertainty on whether Wednesday or Friday is the hottest day, but the hottest temperature during this time frame could potentially reach the mid-upper 80s, with a few models even showing lower 90s ahead of the cold front. Stay tuned for more details.
Tropics: Karl Intensifying, Igor And Julia Weakening
Hurricane Igor: Down To A Category 3
Hurricane Igor, the powerful hurricane that is now one of the biggest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic Ocean, has been downgraded to a Category 3 hurricane. Igor is moving slowly northwest, and will turn more north with time, and for at least the next few days, it is expected to maintain its intensity. Afterwards, as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane, Igor will approach Bermuda, and while the eyewall may stay SW of the island, hurricane conditions are becoming more likely in Bermuda, especially as due to Igor's large size, even a near miss will still bring very dangerous conditions to Bermuda.
Hurricane Fabian of 2003 was one of the worst storms to affect Bermuda, and was a Category 3 hurricane when it was near Bermuda. While it is uncertain how bad Igor will be in Bermuda, it is expected to have a potentially significant impact on the island, and it could produce significant damage.
Hurricane Julia:
Hurricane Julia has significantly weakened over the last day, and is barely a Category 1 hurricane. Julia is expected to continue weakening, and could be absorbed by Igor in the future. Julia is not a threat to land.
Hurricane Karl:
Karl has managed to keep a very organized structure while inland, leading to a faster intensification once moving offshore. Karl is now a strong Category 1 hurricane approaching Mexico, quickly strengthening, and I am expecting Karl to peak as a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall in Mexico.
For the short term, some light to moderate rain will fall before midnight, with another round of storms possible after midnight, but they will not be as strong as the storms that went through for this afternoon. The round after midnight is actually the line that was originally supposed to be the strong storm line, but the afternoon line became stronger.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
Tomorrow will start out mostly cloudy, then clear to mostly sunny by the end of the day, with a north wind expected. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s for most of the area, though a few upper 70s cannot be ruled out for the immediate NYC area.
Weekend Outlook: Dry, Comfortable
On Saturday, a slightly warmer air mass will approach the area, but highs will be similar to those of tomorrow, with mostly sunny skies expected. Sunday, however, will be warmer as a cold front approaches from the west, bringing partly cloudy skies and a chance of a few showers or thunderstorms. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s inland and in S CT/Long Island, with the immediate NYC area in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Monday And Tuesday: Chilly Conditions Return
By Monday, a trough will move into the area behind the cold front, and while it will not be long lasting, it will bring below average temperatures. Highs will range from the upper 60s (potentially mid 60s) inland, to the lower 70s in the immediate NYC area, with upper 60s to lower 70s for Long Island/S CT. Overnight lows will be chilly, similar to those of this morning, with Tuesday slightly warming up.
Late Week Warm SpellBy Wednesday, the storm track will shift well to the northwest of the area, and as a result, a large ridge is likely to build into the area. High temperatures are expected to reach the 80s by Wednesday, with 90s possible for the southern and central Mid Atlantic. There is uncertainty on whether Wednesday or Friday is the hottest day, but the hottest temperature during this time frame could potentially reach the mid-upper 80s, with a few models even showing lower 90s ahead of the cold front. Stay tuned for more details.
Tropics: Karl Intensifying, Igor And Julia Weakening
Hurricane Igor: Down To A Category 3
Hurricane Igor, the powerful hurricane that is now one of the biggest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic Ocean, has been downgraded to a Category 3 hurricane. Igor is moving slowly northwest, and will turn more north with time, and for at least the next few days, it is expected to maintain its intensity. Afterwards, as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane, Igor will approach Bermuda, and while the eyewall may stay SW of the island, hurricane conditions are becoming more likely in Bermuda, especially as due to Igor's large size, even a near miss will still bring very dangerous conditions to Bermuda.
Hurricane Fabian of 2003 was one of the worst storms to affect Bermuda, and was a Category 3 hurricane when it was near Bermuda. While it is uncertain how bad Igor will be in Bermuda, it is expected to have a potentially significant impact on the island, and it could produce significant damage.
Hurricane Julia:
Hurricane Julia has significantly weakened over the last day, and is barely a Category 1 hurricane. Julia is expected to continue weakening, and could be absorbed by Igor in the future. Julia is not a threat to land.
Hurricane Karl:
Karl has managed to keep a very organized structure while inland, leading to a faster intensification once moving offshore. Karl is now a strong Category 1 hurricane approaching Mexico, quickly strengthening, and I am expecting Karl to peak as a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall in Mexico.
Sept 16 Noon: Strong Storms
6:14 PM: The severe thunderstorm has intensified and has become more organized, and during the time that I did not update the website earlier this hour, the National Weather Service issued a tornado warning for Brooklyn, something that doesn't happen frequently there. The warning has been already cancelled.The storm is currently in western Long Island and southern Connecticut, moving ENE, and the storm will be just north of Lake Grove in Long Island before moving offshore. Expect to see heavy rain in most of southern Connecticut, with the severe thunderstorms affecting the coastal areas of southern Connecticut. Expect rainfall amounts up to 1 inch in a very short period of time out of this severe storm.
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5:00 PM: Due to a slight change in the forecast set up for the storm, the squall line is reaching the area earlier than expected, and is nearing New York City, moving NE quickly. Places from Rockland/Westchester counties and furthers south/east/NE can expect to see a quick round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, producing heavy rainfall, with up to an inch possible in a short period of time, and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. Small to moderate hail is also expected with some of these storms. The strongest storms will be from Middlesex County into western Long Island.Behind this squall line, light to moderate rain will approach and affect the area through the overnight hours, but the rain will not be very heavy, and at least a total of 0.7 to 1.4 inch of rain is possible by the time that the storm ends, with locally higher amounts.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Sept 15: Stormy And Windy Thursday Night
Notes:
- The 5-Day Forecast was updated tonight.
- The poll for your thoughts on the hottest temperature around Wednesday remains open. Vote your thoughts in the poll, which will remain open until Sunday.
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Today brought mostly sunny skies and chilly temperatures as a cool air mass moved into the area, with highs ranging from the mid-upper 60s inland to the upper 60s to mid 70s in the immediate NYC area. Tonight will be a very chilly one, with lows in the 40s for most of the area except for NYC and most of Long Island.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
Tomorrow will bring increasing clouds to the area, with a south wind expected. With a sharp gradient in temperatures expected, the interior areas as well as Long Island/S CT will peak in the lower 70s with a few upper 60s possible, lower to mid 70s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 70s for NYC and closer to the coast. Places SW of NYC may reach the lower 80s.
Meanwhile, a strong storm will be approaching the area from the northwest. The storm track will stay to our north, leading to heavy rain in the interior Northeast and New England, with a round of severe storms for the western parts of the region south of the storm track due to the cold front. South of the storm track, a squall line will approach the area along the cold front, affecting the area between 8 PM and 4 AM. Locally heavy rainfall is expected along with thunderstorms, with strong wind gusts possible with the storms. Other than the storms, windy conditions are still expected on Thursday night, especially for Long Island and S CT, where wind gusts may reach 50 mph. Low temperatures will stay steady overnight, and may slightly rise ahead of the storms.
Friday - Sunday: Cooler, Then Warming Up
On Friday, mainly cloudy skies are expected, with highs in the lower to mid 70s, though the cloud cover will be clearing by the late day. Saturday will be a comfortable day with slightly warmer temperatures, with Sunday warming up to the mid 70s to lower 80s ahead of a cold front. Scattered showers are possible on Sunday and Sunday night due to the cold front.
Monday - Wednesday: Cool, Then Unseasonably Warm
After the cold front moves through on Sunday, a cooler air mass will enter the area for Monday. There is uncertainty with how strong the air mass is, however at this time I am thinking 850 mb temperatures could be near 6c, leading to highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s in the area, with lows on Monday night chilly, similar to those of tonight. Tuesday is likely to be another relatively chilly day.
By Wednesday, however, a strong storm will organize well to our northwest, drawing in an unseasonably warm air mass into the region. High temperatures will likely pass the 80 degree mark, and according to some models, may reach the 90 degree mark ahead of the cold front, which will move through around Thursday, bringing some more rain to the area and cooler temperatures. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame.
Tropics: 2 Hurricanes Active, Another One To Follow
Hurricane Igor:
Hurricane Igor last night quickly strengthened, and peaked at 155 mph last night, just below Category 5 intensity, however it is possible it may have peaked as one. Igor has since weakened due to a less favorable environment, but has maintained Category 4 intensity. Igor is currently organizing itself and may slightly strengthen again, but it has probably reached its peak.
For the longer range, Igor will continue to move WNW to NW, and will switch towards a NNW then north track, taking it close to Bermuda as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. Bermuda needs to closely follow Igor, as it may bring hurricane or tropical storm conditions to the island.
Hurricane Julia: Unexpected Strengthening Leads To Cat 4
Last night, Hurricane Julia was slowly strengthening and was likely to peak as a category 2 hurricane, with a window of at lteast 2 days for intensification, but unlike what all of the forecasts and models suggested, Julia unexpectedly rapidly intensified, and like Igor, reached Category 4 intensity this morning. This was a notable event, as in history, there was only one other occasion where two category 4 hurricanes were present at the same time in the Atlantic Ocean, and Julia also set the record for the most intense hurricane this far east, breaking the previous record Hurricane Fred set last year as a Category 3 hurricane.
With a less favorable environment ahead of Julia, weakening is expected, and Julia most likely has reached its peak.
Tropical Storm Karl: Soon To Be Hurricane
As expected, Karl quickly strengthened yesterday, and made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula with 65 mph sustained winds. Karl is currently over the Yucatan and is down to a 40 mph tropical storm, however it will soon enter the Gulf of Mexico. Despite Karl likely to be a tropical depression by then, with a favorable environment there, quick strengthening is likely once again, and Karl is expected to become a hurricane by the time that it makes landfall in Mexico.
Brief note on overall season: When lowering my call from 15-18 to 12-16 named storms, it was with the thought that some waves would not develop. While I did expect much higher activity by this time period, almost all of the tropical waves developed, which exceeded my expectations. While it is already late in the season, I am thinking that we could end up with 16 to 19 named storms, 8 to 12 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes when the season ends.
- The 5-Day Forecast was updated tonight.
- The poll for your thoughts on the hottest temperature around Wednesday remains open. Vote your thoughts in the poll, which will remain open until Sunday.
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Today brought mostly sunny skies and chilly temperatures as a cool air mass moved into the area, with highs ranging from the mid-upper 60s inland to the upper 60s to mid 70s in the immediate NYC area. Tonight will be a very chilly one, with lows in the 40s for most of the area except for NYC and most of Long Island.
Tomorrow's Outlook:
Tomorrow will bring increasing clouds to the area, with a south wind expected. With a sharp gradient in temperatures expected, the interior areas as well as Long Island/S CT will peak in the lower 70s with a few upper 60s possible, lower to mid 70s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 70s for NYC and closer to the coast. Places SW of NYC may reach the lower 80s.Meanwhile, a strong storm will be approaching the area from the northwest. The storm track will stay to our north, leading to heavy rain in the interior Northeast and New England, with a round of severe storms for the western parts of the region south of the storm track due to the cold front. South of the storm track, a squall line will approach the area along the cold front, affecting the area between 8 PM and 4 AM. Locally heavy rainfall is expected along with thunderstorms, with strong wind gusts possible with the storms. Other than the storms, windy conditions are still expected on Thursday night, especially for Long Island and S CT, where wind gusts may reach 50 mph. Low temperatures will stay steady overnight, and may slightly rise ahead of the storms.
Friday - Sunday: Cooler, Then Warming Up
On Friday, mainly cloudy skies are expected, with highs in the lower to mid 70s, though the cloud cover will be clearing by the late day. Saturday will be a comfortable day with slightly warmer temperatures, with Sunday warming up to the mid 70s to lower 80s ahead of a cold front. Scattered showers are possible on Sunday and Sunday night due to the cold front.
Monday - Wednesday: Cool, Then Unseasonably Warm
After the cold front moves through on Sunday, a cooler air mass will enter the area for Monday. There is uncertainty with how strong the air mass is, however at this time I am thinking 850 mb temperatures could be near 6c, leading to highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s in the area, with lows on Monday night chilly, similar to those of tonight. Tuesday is likely to be another relatively chilly day.
By Wednesday, however, a strong storm will organize well to our northwest, drawing in an unseasonably warm air mass into the region. High temperatures will likely pass the 80 degree mark, and according to some models, may reach the 90 degree mark ahead of the cold front, which will move through around Thursday, bringing some more rain to the area and cooler temperatures. Stay tuned for more details on this time frame.
Tropics: 2 Hurricanes Active, Another One To Follow
Hurricane Igor:
Hurricane Igor last night quickly strengthened, and peaked at 155 mph last night, just below Category 5 intensity, however it is possible it may have peaked as one. Igor has since weakened due to a less favorable environment, but has maintained Category 4 intensity. Igor is currently organizing itself and may slightly strengthen again, but it has probably reached its peak.
For the longer range, Igor will continue to move WNW to NW, and will switch towards a NNW then north track, taking it close to Bermuda as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. Bermuda needs to closely follow Igor, as it may bring hurricane or tropical storm conditions to the island.
Hurricane Julia: Unexpected Strengthening Leads To Cat 4
Last night, Hurricane Julia was slowly strengthening and was likely to peak as a category 2 hurricane, with a window of at lteast 2 days for intensification, but unlike what all of the forecasts and models suggested, Julia unexpectedly rapidly intensified, and like Igor, reached Category 4 intensity this morning. This was a notable event, as in history, there was only one other occasion where two category 4 hurricanes were present at the same time in the Atlantic Ocean, and Julia also set the record for the most intense hurricane this far east, breaking the previous record Hurricane Fred set last year as a Category 3 hurricane.
With a less favorable environment ahead of Julia, weakening is expected, and Julia most likely has reached its peak.
Tropical Storm Karl: Soon To Be Hurricane
As expected, Karl quickly strengthened yesterday, and made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula with 65 mph sustained winds. Karl is currently over the Yucatan and is down to a 40 mph tropical storm, however it will soon enter the Gulf of Mexico. Despite Karl likely to be a tropical depression by then, with a favorable environment there, quick strengthening is likely once again, and Karl is expected to become a hurricane by the time that it makes landfall in Mexico.
Brief note on overall season: When lowering my call from 15-18 to 12-16 named storms, it was with the thought that some waves would not develop. While I did expect much higher activity by this time period, almost all of the tropical waves developed, which exceeded my expectations. While it is already late in the season, I am thinking that we could end up with 16 to 19 named storms, 8 to 12 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes when the season ends.
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