Forecast Highlights:
Saturday: Moderate Snowstorm Expected
The forecast for Saturday's storm generally has not been complicated with the exception of last night's 0z ECMWF run; following most of the model guidance showing a light 1-3 or 2-4 inch event, the 0z ECM suddenly came in much more amplified with a significant snowfall for parts of the region. Typically, the ECM is a reliable model, but the rest of today's runs including the afternoon ECM run proved that the overnight run showing a major snowstorm was an outlier solution, and is not expected. Putting this minor complication in the forecast earlier today aside, expectations continue for a light to moderate snow event to affect the region on Saturday, although the models are still slightly changing with the upper level setup, and additional minor changes are possible in the forecast.
Snow is expected to develop across the area around 8-10 AM, with steady moderate snow expected for the entire area. It is not out of the question that rain mixes with the snow in parts of Long Island. The storm will be generally quick moving, and is expected to end by 4-7 PM across the area from west to east. A coastal low pressure will develop by the evening, but will be too far east to directly affect the area with heavier precipitation other than eastern Long Island, where temperatures will be more marginal than western areas for accumulations. At this time, a general 2 to 4 inches of snow are expected across the area, with locally higher amounts possible in the immediate NYC area. As previously mentioned, the models are still slightly changing around some parts of the setup, and minor changes are possible to the forecast.
Sunday - Next Week: Much Colder, More Snow Possibilities
The colder pattern that has been mentioned in the previous pattern outlook will begin behind the Saturday snowstorm, with lows overnight dropping into the 20s for the entire area with upper 10s further north and west. For Sunday and Monday, highs in the upper 20s to low 30s north and west of NYC and low to mid 30s for NYC and further east are expected, along with overnight lows in the upper 10s to mid 20s for most of the area, slightly warmer in NYC and slightly colder for interior north/west areas, which could drop into the mid 10s. Wind chills at night and towards the morning hours are expected to be in the 10s for most of the area and the single digits to lower 10s inland. With the colder temperatures, this will be the first sustained period of near to below average temperatures since November.
While 2012 will not be remembered as a wintry year for the area with the exception of November, the first week of the new year will be much more winter-like for the region, with continued cold and several snow chances. The first of these potentials is around January 1-2. Some of the model guidance is hinting at a weak overrunning event with light snow showers spreading across the region. It is still uncertain if any precipitation even falls during this time frame, although the potential is there for light snow showers, with any accumulations remaining relatively light. Another round of even colder temperatures is then expected, with highs generally in the 20s along with the potential for widespread lows in the 10s and single digits inland. Another period of uncertainty is around January 3-5; currently, the model guidance keeps strong cold in the region with any storm staying suppressed, although the potential is there for another storm to affect the region, potentially including the area. Stay tuned for more information on the first week of January.
I just discovered this site - much more informative than the two major sites, and without all the blinking commercials! Kudos to you.
ReplyDeleteThank you. I appreciate your comment and invite you to continue to visit my site.
Delete