Nov 1, 2012: Cold Weekend; Storm Possible Next Week

Forecast Highlights:

The devastating impacts from hurricane Sandy continue to affect the region three days since its landfall in New Jersey; although some places have regained power, many others still remain without power. Unfortunately, the upcoming weather pattern is not helping the hard hit areas from Sandy, as places without power will have to deal with a cold weekend with highs in the 40s to low 50s and lows in the 30s, which will additionally be followed by the potential for a storm next week. Click below to read the full post.

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Blog Statement:

A full summary on Hurricane Sandy is expected to be posted towards the middle of November.

Several days after the historic hurricane Sandy made landfall in southern New Jersey, the full extent of its damage is gradually revealing itself. Millions of people lost power as a result of the storm, and while some places have regained power, many still remain without power. Many of the hardest hit areas will end up without power going into next week as well. Many communities remain devastated across the area with widespread flooding, downed trees and power lines, and a rapidly growing shortage of gas. The death toll continues to rise, and has exceeded 80 according to latest sources; 40 of those are from New York City, with just under half of the NYC deaths coming from Staten Island.

Sandy's winds resulted in widespread damage across the area, with widespread gusts near and above 65-80 mph observed, getting as high as 96 mph in Eatons Neck and 90 mph in Islip, both in Long Island. Sandy's significant storm surge caused extensive damage along the coasts of Long Island and New York City, with the worst damage found along the Jersey shore, where Sandy partially or entirely destroyed many attractions, ranging from boardwalks to amusement parks, with communities partially underwater and houses destroyed. Damage estimates continue to rise and are well into the tens of billions of dollars, with latest estimates placing Sandy as the 2nd costliest storm in US history, only behind hurricane Katrina. Through its devastation, Sandy has secured its place in history as one of the worst storms on record to affect both the NYC area and the United States. My thoughts and prayers go to those who were affected by this storm or know people who have been affected by the storm, and I'm wishing for those who were affected a quick return to normal lives.

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Tonight - Early Next Week: Cold Returns

The upcoming weather pattern, unfortunately, is not helping the areas hit hard from Sandy without power with the upcoming cold temperatures this weekend and a potential nor'easter next week. A colder than average pattern will persist for the first 7-9 days of November, with high temperatures from Friday through at least Tuesday expected to peak in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area, with the coolest temperatures for interior north/west areas. Overnight lows will be cold as well, dropping into the upper 20s to mid 30s away from NYC and the immediate coast, with upper 30s likely for NYC and the immediate coast. The coldest temperatures are expected for Monday, with highs likely in the low to mid 40s inland and the mid to upper 40s across the rest of the area, with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s outside of NYC and the immediate coast. Breezy NW winds are expected as well, which will lead to slightly colder wind chill values.


Mid Next Week: Nor'easter Possible

Slightly revised 11 PM

A little more than a week after Sandy has passed, the potential is there for a nor'easter to affect the region, although should the storm affect the area, it is unlikely to be any significant storm, but rather a typical fall nor'easter. While the model guidance continues to vary with the specific details regarding this time frame, a negatively tilted trough is likely along with ridging in the western US and Atlantic Canada as a coastal low pressure develops near the region around the middle of next week. As this is still almost a week out, there is still uncertainty with the specific details, and the latest model guidance ranges from the ECM, which is amplified and takes a somewhat strong low pressure from the Southeast up the coast towards NYC and into the Northeast, with heavy rain and moderate winds, to the GFS which shows a somewhat weaker and more progressive storm further east, with light rain and cold temperatures.

Given the set up in place, the potential storm isn't too likely to track west of the area, and the possibility is there that it stays weak and mostly misses the area to the east. Should the stronger storm scenario verify, accumulating snow may enter the picture for parts of the Northeast, although the location of any possible snow remains uncertain. At this time, it is too early to know with high confidence exactly where this storm will track and what impact it will have on the area; at this time I am siding with the further west and more amplified solutions, although this is subject to change over the next few days. Once again, the storm in this time frame will be much weaker than Sandy, and will end up just as a typical fall nor'easter. Stay tuned for more information on the storm potential next week.