Dec 11, 2011: Warmer Temperatures This Week

As a strong yet transient trough moved over the region last night, the coldest overnight lows so far this winter have been observed across the area, dropping into the mid 10s inland, lower to mid 20s in the north/west suburbs of NYC, lower 20s in southern Connecticut, and upper 20s to lower 30s in NYC, making last night the first sub-freezing low temperature in NYC this winter. Long Island generally saw lows in the 20s, although the parts of eastern Long Island which typically see the most radiational cooling dropped into the upper 10s as well. Mainly sunny skies were observed during the day with chilly temperatures, peaking in the mid to upper 30s inland and the upper 30s to lower 40s across the rest of the area.

Although the cold air mass has left the region, cold temperatures are expected again tonight. A warming trend will begin tomorrow, with highs on Tuesday once again getting to nearly 50 degrees in the immediate NYC area. Although dry conditions with mostly sunny skies will remain in place through Tuesday and slightly increased cloud cover on Wednesday, an approaching storm will bring clouds and rain back into the forecast for the late week. Although no significant rain amounts are expected, scattered showers will take place again on Thursday with warmer temperatures, passing the 50 degree mark.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

After another cold night, with temperatures dropping into the upper 10s to upper 20s across most of the area with lower 30s in NYC, warmer temperatures will return tomorrow as weak ridging continues in the eastern US. Temperatures will warm up into the lower to mid 40s inland and the mid 40s across the area, with sunny skies expected again along with light SW winds.


Tuesday - Friday: Still Warmer Than Average; Rainy Ending

Temperatures today dropped below average only for a brief time, as next week will continue the pattern of mostly above average temperatures frequent throughout the fall and the first part of this month. With mostly sunny skies, Tuesday will bring even warmer temperatures, reaching the mid 40s inland and the mid to upper 40s across the rest of the area. Although widespread lower 50s are not expected, parts of the immediate NYC area may reach 50 degrees. A slightly colder air mass will move in in on Wednesday along with partly cloudy skies, bringing slightly cooler temperatures, peaking in the mid 40s across the area with a few upper 40s in the immediate NYC area.

An intensifying low pressure will move towards the Great Lakes on Thursday, quickly moving into Canada overnight. This storm will push out the very weak cold air mass over the region, as light front end snow/sleet/freezing rain fall in parts of New England. Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Wednesday night and Thursday, and although scattered showers are expected, especially on Wednesday night, most of the time frame until Thursday evening is expected to stay mainly dry. With the area in the warmer section of the storm, temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 50s across the area on Thursday. As the storm's cold front moves through on Thursday night, temperatures will remain steady in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area with more scattered showers moving through the area. Once the front moves through, temperatures are expected to drop; exactly when it moves is still a little uncertain, but at this time I am expecting a slight drop in temperatures on Friday morning into the upper 30s to mid 40s across most of the area, with temperatures only slightly rising on Friday afternoon to reach the mid to upper 40s across the area, potentially near the lower 50s in parts of the immediate NYC area and Long Island.


Next Weekend - Next Week: Colder, Then More Rain

A weak trough will move in behind the late week storm, bringing colder temperatures again. High temperatures are likely to drop into the lower to mid 40s across the area on Saturday and into the upper 30s to mid 40s on Sunday, with low temperatures in the 20s again across most of the area, with upper 10s possible towards NW NJ/Orange county in the colder case scenario. As should be expected with the current pattern, the ridge in the southeastern US will rebuild again as another cutoff low pressure reaches the southwestern US. Although there is uncertainty with the exact timing due to the time range, warmer temperatures are expected for the start of next week with the potential for more stormy conditions around early-mid next week. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.