July 30, 2011: More Rain Chances Next Week

Note: Due to some difficulties with the internet connection, the blog was not updated from this morning through this evening. Tonight's update includes an updated 5-Day Forecast for NYC and an updated Tropics page, and an update on the hurricane season outlook as well as a brief August outlook will be posted tomorrow in the Long Range Forecasts page as well as an updated 5-Day Forecast for the rest of the area.

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After yesterday's widespread strong to severe thunderstorms, today brought a much more quiet day across the region, with mostly sunny skies and less humidity. High temperatures were slightly warmer, however, reaching the upper 80s inland, lower to mid 90s in the immediate NYC area, and the upper 80s to lower 90s in Long Island and southern Connecticut. The warmth will continue over the next few days, with Monday the warmest day, but after Monday, temperatures are expected to begin cooling down, and the potential is there for storms to affect the area on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring mostly sunny skies to the area along with slightly cooler temperatures. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s inland, upper 80s to lower 90s in the immediate NYC area, and with a west/WSW wind expected, Long Island and southern Connecticut will see highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Next Week: Warm, Then Slightly Colder

A low pressure in Canada will bring the next cold front into the area on Monday. With a slightly warmer air mass ahead of the front, temperatures will warm up as well, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, lower to mid 90s in the immediate NYC area, and due to a west/WSW wind, Long Island/S CT will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with the exception of the immediate southern coast of long Island, which will stay cooler. Isolated thunderstorms are expected with the front on Monday evening, but widespread thunderstorms are not expected from this cold front.

The cold front is now expected to bring in a stronger cold air mass than previously thought. Most of the models have trended stronger with the Canadian low pressure, and now show a stronger trough moving into the Northeast on Tuesday. While this will not bring a significantly colder air mass into the area, temperatures will slightly cool down, reaching the mid to upper 80s across most of the area.

More uncertainty returns into the forecast on Wednesday, when a low pressure is expected to approach the region. Most of the models agree with showing a low pressure moving through the area on Wednesday night, bringing cooler temperatures for Wednesday/Thursday along with locally heavy rainfall. Some of the models may be overdoing the intensity and extent of the rainfall, and at this time, while some rain is expected across the area, it is expected to be more scattered, not a part of a large rain system. There is some uncertainty with the temperatures, though at this time I put temperatures in the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further west for both of these days, with high temperatures potentially reaching the lower 90s in the immediate NYC area on Wednesday.

The unsettled weather is expected to temporarily end around Friday, with drier conditions returning along with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across most of the area. Beyond Friday, there is increasing uncertainty as some models show dry conditions, while others show rain and clouds through parts of the weekend. More information will be posted on next weekend once details become clearer.