April 30: Severe Thunderstorms On Sunday

Tomorrow is going to be even warmer than today, with high temperatures rising well into the 80s, possibly even reaching 90 degrees. Humid conditions are also expected. This warm spell, however, will quickly come to an end on Sunday.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow should be very warm. With plenty of sunshine, temperatures are going to surge well into the 80s, with parts of the area, including places just south and west of New York City, seeing high temperatures reach the lower 90s. The immediate coast is going to be the only exception, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

Thunderstorms are meanwhile going to be approaching from the west. While they should not reach us yet, places such as western Pennsylvania, West Virginia and far western New York are going to see scattered thunderstorms, some of which may become severe. The rain should not affect our area tomorrow, but Sunday will be a different story.

Severe Thunderstorm Potential On Sunday

Sunday is still expected to be very warm, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, with even more humid conditions, as dew points rise into the 60s. There should be more cloud cover on Sunday than Saturday, however if the immediate New York City area and places further south manage to have more sunshine than clouds, temperatures may rise into the lower 90s once again.

Thunderstorms are expected to be the main problem in the afternoon hours. With a set up allowing for severe weather, including CAPE between 1000 and 1500 j/kg, reaching 2000 to our west, Lift Index between -3 and -5, and bulk shear between 40 and 50 knots, thunderstorms are expected to affect the area during the late afternoon and evening hours, some of which may be strong or severe.

While we should also see locally severe storms, the best chance for severe weather should be to our north and west, from Pennsylvania into central New York, where a 30% risk may be added tomorrow. Below is my current outlook for the severe weather potential, with our area in the eastern edge of the 15% risk area.




Next Week Outlook: Warmth Returns

After the cold front passes through on Monday, bringing additional showers and non-severe thunderstorms, high temperatures are going to cool down into the mid 70s. Afterwards, as a cold front approaches the area, temperatures are going to warm up again by the middle of next week, with 80s potentially returning once again by Wednesday, and mid 80s are possible by Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible with this cold front on between Thursday and Saturday. Afterwards, there is some uncertainty on what happens, though it appears that colder temperatures may return to the area.

April 29: Hot And Humid Weekend Ahead

Today was much warmer than yesterday, with high temperatures returning into the lower 70s in parts of the area. Much warmer temperatures are going to come, however, with parts of the area even reaching 90 degrees again.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will continue the warm up, with sunny skies and warm conditions expected. Temperatures are going to be in the mid to upper 70s in the interior, in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the immediate New York City area, and in the lower 70s along the immediate coast. Tomorrow morning, however, should still be relatively chilly, with low temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the interior areas, and in the mid to upper 40s in the New York City area.

A warm front is going to move through the area tomorrow, and while a few clouds should move in, no rain is expected out of this warm front. As a result, while tonight into tomorrow morning should be chilly, tomorrow night should be mild, with low temperatures in the 50s.

Hot And Humid Weekend

After the warm front passes through, temperatures are going to get much warmer. Saturday will have high temperatures well into the 80s across the area except for the immediate coast. Parts of the immediate New York City area are even likely to reach the lower 90s! Unlike the previous warm spell in early April, when dew points were in the 40s, dew points are expected to be in the 50s and 60s in this case, which would lead to more humid conditions than in early April.

Sunday should be slightly colder than Saturday, as the cold front slowly approaches the area. It now appears that the timing of the front has been delayed to Monday. Despite this, thunderstorms are still expected on Sunday, and may be strong to severe across parts of the area. A Blue Alert has been issued for the severe weather potential.

After the cold front passes through, temperatures are going to cool down into the 70s, with showers returning by the middle of next week.

April 28: Weekend Warmth, Storm Update

As the storm exits the area, temperatures are going to begin quickly warming up. By the weekend, we should see temperatures well into the 80s, however this warm spell is going to be relatively short lived.

Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow should be very different from today. While today was mainly cloudy and chilly, with high temperatures in the 50s, tomorrow will be mainly sunny, with temperatures warming into the mid-upper 60s, with parts of the New York City area seeing temperatures in the lower 70s. Despite the warm afternoon temperatures, however, frost is expected in the northwestern parts of the area tonight, with lows in the lower 30s.

The only area to not have mainly sunny skies is expected to be Maine, where clouds from the storm will slowly exit, along with scattered showers.

Weekend Outlook, Sunday Thunderstorms

Unlike last weekend, this weekend should be very warm. Temperatures will be well into the 80s across the area on Saturday, except for the immediate coast, that should stay mainly in the 70s. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon, with mild overnight lows, in the 60s across the area.

Sunday bring the potential of more widespread thunderstorms, potentially strong or severe. As the cold front approaches the area, thunderstorms are expected. At this time, the probability of severe weather is uncertain, however the potential is there for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, which I mentioned in my 5-day outlook.

Monday should be colder, with high temperatures in the 70s, with a few locations possibly reaching 80 degrees. The rest of the week continues to cool down, with high temperatures likely back into the 60s by Wednesday.

April 27: Heat To Return This Weekend

For the past few weeks, we have been in a generally chilly pattern, which also brought most of this month's rainfall. This chilly pattern is about to end, with warmer temperatures expected to return. The question is how warm it gets.

Frost Potential Tonight:

As a colder air mass briefly moves in, temperatures tonight are expected to drop with mainly clear skies. The northwestern parts of the area should see low temperatures in the lower to mid 30s, possibly in the upper 20s, leading to parts of that area seeing frost.

Tomorrow's Forecast:

Tomorrow is going to be the last of the chilly and mainly cloudy days. Temperatures are still expected to be chilly, with high temperatures in the lower 50s in the north and western parts of the area, and in the mid to upper 50s for the immediate New York City area. Windy conditions are also expected, mainly towards the coast.

Mostly cloudy skies are expected in the area, with a few showers possible. Most of the region should be dry, with the precipitation expected to stay in the Northeast, bringing rain and high elevation snow. The storm is expected to exit the Northeast on Thursday.


Late Week To Weekend Warm Spell

Thursday should be much different than tomorrow, with temperatures quickly warming up. High temperatures should be generally in the mid to upper 60s. Friday will continue to warm up as a warmer air mass moves into the area, with high temperatures in the mid 70s, reaching the upper 70s in parts of the New York City area. The immediate coast should stay colder, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

Both Saturday and Sunday are expected to be very warm. While the immediate coast should stay colder, in the 70s, New York City is expected to reach the mid to potentially upper 80s, with temperatures expected to reach the upper 80s south and west of New York City. If the warmer case scenario verifies, even 90 degrees may be possible in parts of New Jersey, however this is still very uncertain, and depends on the timing of the cold front. There is still uncertainty on the day of the warmest temperatures and how warm it gets, which could end up being between Saturday and Monday, with the warmest temperature ranging from the lower 80s to the lower 90s.

A cold front is expected to move through on Monday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. At this time, severe thunderstorms are not expected, however they are still possible, especially if the models change to show a more favorable set up for severe weather. After this cold front, high temperatures cool back down into the lower 70s.

April 26: Summer Conditions To Return

After the early April warm spell, temperatures became much colder, generally staying in the 60s, with today only staying in the lower to mid 50s across the area. This is going to change by the end of this week, however we still have another few days of chilly conditions before the temperatures warm up.

Rain is expected to continue through tonight, however a brief break from the rain is expected until at least 12 AM, followed by additional light to moderate rain. The widespread rain should end by tomorrow morning, with some clearing in the cloud cover by tomorrow afternoon. Rain amounts should end up in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range.

Tomorrow's Forecast:

Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than today in the area, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 50s inland, and in the mid to upper 50s for the immediate NYC area. A few parts of the region should see much colder temperatures, including southern Virginia, where high temperatures are going to drop into the 60s from the 80s, and in northern New England, with high temperatures in the 40s and 30s.

A few showers are expected in the morning, though the rest of the day should be generally dry with a scattered shower possible. The majority of the precipitation should fall in central and northern New England, with several inches of wet snow expected in the higher elevations.

Mid To Late Week Outlook: Warming Up

As colder temperatures continue to stay in the area, high temperatures are still expected to be in the 50s with a few lower 60s possible on Wednesday, with a few scattered showers possible along with windy conditions. By Thursday, however, a much warmer air mass should begin moving into the area, and as a result, temperatures are going to quickly warm into the mid to upper 60s across the area. Friday will continue this trend, with high temperatures in the lower 70s, with a few mid 70s possible in the immediate New York City area, away from the coast.

Summer-Like Weekend, Next Potential Storm

As I have previously mentioned, there is the potential for temperatures to return into the 80s by next weekend. The models have trended warmer for this time period, and even the cold-biased GFS model shows temperatures reaching the lower 80s by early next week.

Saturday is expected to reach the lower 80s in the northwestern parts of the area, and in the lower to mid 80s for the New York City area except for the immediate coast and parts of Long Island, which should have temperatures in the 70s. Sunday is expected to continue warming up, with high temperatures reaching the mid to potentially upper 80s in parts of the area.

There is also the possibility of thunderstorms between Sunday and Tuesday. While there is uncertainty with the timing, the models show a cold front moving through during this time period, bringing scattered thunderstorms during this time period. After this cold front, high temperatures are expected to cool down, however high temperatures in the 50s are not expected to return.

April 24 Evening Update

As I will not be doing an update on Sunday, below is my forecast for Monday, as well as some current storm observations.

Monday's Forecast:

Monday is expected to be chilly and rainy as well, however there should not be as much rain as Sunday. High temperatures are expected to be generally the same as tomorrow, if not slightly colder, in the lower to mid 50s.

Light rain is expected throughout the day, with rain possibly increasing in intensity by the late afternoon due to the low pressure approaching from our west. Severe thunderstorms will not be a risk for the southern Mid Atlantic on Monday, however some thunderstorms are expected there.


Current Storm Observations:

The rain is quickly increasing in coverage area and intensity, as shown by the latest radar loop, as well as the latest radar image, posted below. Light to occasionally moderate rain is currently falling across the area. Heavier rain is expected to approach from Virginia by later tonight or Sunday morning, however it is possible that a dry slot, currently in northern West Virginia on the radar, keeps the heaviest rain to our south.

April 24: Storm Update, Long Range Warmth

Today is expected to be a very nice day, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures reaching the lower 70s in parts of the area. Enjoy the nice conditions today, because the next few days are going to be the opposite.

Tomorrow's Forecast:

Tomorrow is going to be much colder than today. With the clouds and rain in place, temperatures will struggle to warm up, and are expected to remain generally steady throughout the day, in the lower to mid 50s. Meanwhile, due to the warm front to our south, there is going to be a sharp temperature gradient. While Philadelphia should have highs in the upper 50s, Washington DC is expected to have temperatures in the 70s, with parts of Virginia in the 80s.

Widespread rain once again returns to the region tomorrow. With rain starting tonight, heavy rain is expected until tomorrow afternoon, followed by lighter rain as the first wave moves out of the area. Rainfall amounts between 3/4 and 1 inch are expected by this time. South of the warm front, shown as the red line on this map, thunderstorms are expected, with severe thunderstorms in southern and eastern Virginia.

Sunday-Tuesday Storm Update

As with yesterday, the models continued to trend wetter, with the NAM and the GGEM now showing over 2 inches of rain for the area. Yesterday's forecast remains generally the same, though there are a few minor changes.

The rain is still expected to begin tonight, falling heavy at times until tomorrow afternoon. I slightly increased the forecast rain amounts, now expecting 0.9 to 1.3 inch of rain by Sunday afternoon. Lighter rain is then expected for Sunday afternoon and evening. The main difference, however, is that the rest of the models are also showing an additional wave of rain late on Sunday night, as the NAM showed yesterday. As a result, I added moderate rain in the forecast for late Sunday night, with an additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain.

By the time that the rain ends on Tuesday night, at least 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain are expected. Flooding is possible in parts of the area, especially with the heaviest rain tonight and Sundy morning.

Warm Spell Update

The warm up is still shown on some models, and while there is uncertainty, if the warmer models verify, we could see temperatures in the 80s once again. The 06z GFS kept the cold air mass in place too long, completely suppressing the warm up and keeping high temperatures in the 60s, which at this time is an unlikely scenario. In the previous warm spells, the GFS also generally kept a cold air mass in place longer than the actual result. At this time, I am expecting a generally steady warm up, with temperatures back into the 70s by Friday, reaching the mid to upper 70s by Saturday, though Saturday could end up slightly colder or warmer.

April 23: Latest Storm Discussion, Rain Map

Today was a nice day across the area, with temperatures generally in the 60s and mostly sunny skies. Tomorrow should not be much different, in fact it should be even slightly warmer, however these nice conditions won't last for long as the next storm approaches.

Tomorrow's Forecast:

As with today, we are looking at dry and mild conditions across the area, though temperatures should be slightly warmer than yesterday in the area. We are looking at high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s in the north and western parts of the area, and in the upper 60s to the lower 70s for the New York City area. The immediate coast should not be as warm, with high temperatures in the mid 60s.

Meanwhile, rain should start to approach the area from our southwest. An intensifying storm that should bring us a wet start to the week is going to slowly move towards the northeast, bringing rain up to Washington DC, and thunderstorms in southwestern Virginia. This rain will eventually reach us on Saturday night.

Storm Discussion: Heavy Rain To Return

***A Red Alert remains in effect for this storm, indicating a greater than 70 percent chance of significant rainfall. Click here for more details.***

As I have previously mentioned, a large storm is going to affect the area between Saturday night and Tuesday, bringing heavy rain once again to the area. Making my forecast today was slightly more difficult, as the models have slightly changed with the timing of the storm, which I will show in more details below.

Rain is expected to begin affecting the area tomorrow night, spreading from our southwest. However, instead of the heavy rain beginning to fall on Sunday morning, the latest model runs now have the heavy rain starting late on Saturday night, and lasting through Sunday afternoon. At this time, in my 5-Day Forecast, I kept my forecast the same for Saturday night, however for Sunday I changed around the forecast, expecting heavy rain before noon followed by light rain, instead of going the other way.

Making Monday's forecast was more complicated. We should continue to see light rain as the low pressure from Ohio approaches the area, however a few NAM runs have added another low pressure for Monday morning, which would bring an additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain. While at this time I do not think that we should see this scenario, I am waiting at least until tomorrow to see if this solution is still shown.

The part of the forecast that has a higher confidence is that the low pressure in Ohio is eventually going to approach the area, redeveloping off the coast by Monday night. This is expected to bring another round of rain, possibly heavy at times, until Tuesday morning, which is when the rain is expected to slowly end. An additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is possible from this additional round of rain.

By the time that the storm exits the area on Tuesday night, we are looking at a general 1 to 2 inches of rain across the area, mainly in the higher end of that range, with locally higher amounts possible. After looking at both the latest and previous model runs, I created the rain map below. I considered the GFS as an outlier for the northern extent of the heavy rain, which it brings over an inch of rain well into Maine. The "Areas of 1.5"+" zone is where the best chance of over 1.5 inch of rain exists, though it does not mean that the entire area should be seeing over 1.5 inch of rain.

Longer Range: Potential Warm Spell

After the early April warm spell, temperatures have been generally near average, occasionally below average. This storm is expected to bring high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, which is below average. Afterwards, however, it appears that we may see a warm up once again, starting in the middle of next week.

A storm in the Midwest is expected to bring a much warmer air mass into the area by that time, allowing for warmer temperatures. By Friday, high temperatures have the potential to return into the 70s, and in the warmer case scenario, as a few models have been showing, 80+ degrees may be possible once again on Saturday, however this is still uncertain.

April 22, 2010: Heavy Rain And Flooding To Return

The storms have generally ended across the area, though some additional rainfall is still possible. Today brought several heavy thunderstorms in the area, producing rainfall amounts locally as high as 3/4 inch. The cold front is moving through the area, and is expected to bring slightly colder conditions for tonight. Low temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 30s inland, in the lower 40s in the suburbs of New York City, and in the mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow's Forecast:

Tomorrow should be nicer than today, with mostly sunny across the area. Mild conditions are also expected, with high temperatures in the mid 60s inland, and in the upper 60s in the New York City area.

The Northeast should also be mainly dry, unlike today, when rain and thunderstorms were widespread. The only areas of rain should be in Maine, where moderate rain is expected, and southwestern Virginia, where light rain should fall from the storm that will affect us early next week.


Heavy Rain And Flooding Return Sunday And Monday

***Red Alert has been issued for this storm, click here for more details.***

As the models continue to show a wet solution for the storm, a red alert remains in effect. Looking at the latest models, below is what I am currently thinking should happen during each time frame. Note that there is still some uncertainty on the exact timing, so this outlook is not final yet.

Light to moderate rain is expected to enter the area late on Saturday night, with moderate rain until Sunday morning. After a brief break in the rain, an area of moderate to heavy rain should move in for the rest of the day. The GFS is most likely too dry with this band of rain, only showing slightly over 1/4 inch total, so I decided to lean towards the 18z NAM, which shows at least 3/4 inch out of the first rain band.

The rain then becomes light showers on Sunday night, which continue until Monday morning. By Monday afternoon, the main low pressure that was over the Ohio Valley is expected to move towards the area, bringing along with it periods of moderate rain to the area. At least an additional 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is possible on Monday. Scattered showers then fall until Tuesday, when the storm should exit the area.

At this time, I am expecting 1 to 2 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts. Flooding may become an issue once again in parts of the area.

Looking Beyond The Storm

After this storm, temperatures are generally expected to warm up. There is still a question on how much the temperatures warm up, which could be between the mid 60s and the lower 70s. A storm is expected to develop in the Midwest by late next week, and while most models do not show rain in the area with this storm, there is still uncertainty with that time period, so it should take at least a few days before we know if the storm affects the area or not.

April 22 Storm Updates

Brief updates on the storms today are going to be posted below.

------------------------------------------

6:49 PM: The last of the heavy thunderstorms have moved out of the area, and are now off the coast of Long Island. Tonight's update will be posted in the next hour, with tomorrow's forecast and the latest update for the rain storm early next week.

6:12 PM: A heavy thunderstorm is currently affecting Sag Harbor in eastern Long Island and is moving southeast. This storm is capable of producing heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts and potentially small hail.

The storm cell that was over southeastern Connecticut is headed towards the eastern tip of Long Island, where it may produce a period of heavy rain. This storm cell is also capable of producing hail.


5:35 PM: A heavy thunderstorm is now affecting southeastern Connecticut, west of New London. This storm is capable of producing heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts and small hail as it moves southeast. It is expected to move offshore in the next 1/2 hour.



4:23 PM: The thunderstorms have began weakening over northern New Jersey, though heavy thunderstorms are developing in central Connecticut and are moving southeast, they should approach south-central and southeastern Connecticut within the next 1-2 hours. The heavy thunderstorm that moved through NYC earlier is now over south central Long Island, and is expected to move offshore in the next 1/2 hour, tracking southeast.

3:27 PM: Using the same radar image from below, light to moderate showers and thunderstorms are approaching northeastern New Jersey and southeastern New York. Locally heavy rain is possible in the heavier rain showers.


3:24 PM: A heavy thunderstorm has just moved through New York City and northeastern New Jersey, and is now over western Long Island. This storm is moving southeast, and is dropping moderate to heavy rainfall. This storm has produced rainfall amounts up to 1/4 inch, and is expected to produce lighter rainfall amounts, up to 0.1 inch, in western Long Island.

April 21: Rain Tonight, Early Next Week

Today brought an unexpected round of heavy rain and thunderstorms to parts of the area, with some places seeing as much as 1/2 inch of rain! There is still rain as of now in central New Jersey, which is expected to continue through tonight, however places north of New York City should mainly stay dry with the possibility of a shower or two.

Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow should also be warm in the New York City area, but it should be colder further north and west. High temperatures in the northwestern parts of the area should be in the mid to upper 60s, and in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the NYC area, possibly reaching the mid 70s in a few isolated areas.

As the graphic to the left shows, a cold front is expected to pass through tomorrow, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms, though the majority of the rain should stay to our north and east. An intense storm should develop offshore, however it should not bring rain to the area.

Friday And Saturday Forecast, Update On Next Storm

Friday should be slightly colder, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s in the area, though Saturday warms up again, with high temperatures back into the mid to upper 60s. Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Saturday.

The models continue to show a wet scenario in the area, with rainfall amounts generally between 1 and 2 inches shown. Due to the models still showing a wet scenario, I now have a Red Alert in effect, meaning a greater than 70 percent chance of significant rainfall, though it may be downgraded to an orange alert if the storm trends drier or more suppressed.

At this time, rain is expected to start on Sunday morning, and become moderate to heavy at times on Sunday afternoon and night. The rain then weakens by Monday morning, though light to moderate rain is expected to continue until Tuesday. This is mainly based on the latest model runs, which can still change, so there is still some slight uncertainty, however Sunday night does appear to be the best time frame for moderate to heavy rain.

There is also the question on how much the storm is suppressed. While it should rain in our area, the rain may not make it into the interior Northeast. The northern boundary of the rain may shift a little north or south over the next few days, though rainfall amounts over 1 inch are likely with this storm for our area.

4 PM Update: Thunderstorms Nearing NYC

***Brief Update: An area of heavy rain and thunderstorms is approaching New York City, extending up to southern Bergen County, and moving east northeast. This line of thunderstorms is expected to affect New York City and northeastern New Jersey within the next 1 to 2 hours, with rainfall amounts up to 1/4 inch, as well as heavy rain and some thunder. A full update should be posted later tonight.

5:15 PM Update: A heavy thunderstorm has formed over Elizabeth, NJ and is moving northeast. Places in the path of this storm within the next hour are: Jersey City, southern and central Manhattan, and potentially western Queens.

Radar images from the national weather service have been posted below.

Brief Early April 21 Update

I was unable to make a full update tonight, though I may be able to make a full update on Wednesday evening. Below is a quick update of my latest forecast, though note that the rest of the pages will not be updated until later on Wednesday.

--------------------------------------------

Short Term Forecast:

Wednesday is going to be another warm day across the area, with highs similar to those of Tuesday, in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A coastal storm to our south along with a cold front bring some light rain from Wednesday night until Thursday night, with a few thunderstorms also possible on Thursday afternoon. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s across the area. Friday should be partly sunny and colder, with high temperatures in the lower 60s.

Weekend And Early Week Forecast:

***Orange Alert remains in effect between Sunday and Tuesday, click here for more details.***

Saturday should be warmer than Friday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. A large storm then approaches the area, with some light rain starting on Sunday morning, developing into a steady moderate rain by Sunday night. There is uncertainty on the exact timing of the rain, though it does appear that this storm will be a long duration event, with rain falling until Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

At this time, the models continue to show a wet solution, though I am keeping the Orange Alert for now. If the wet solution is still shown by this evening, an upgrade to a red alert is possible.

April 20 Early Update: Rain Next Week

Reminder: Other than this page, two other pages in the blog, the 5-Day Forecasts and the Stormy Weather Outlook pages are frequently updated, with detailed forecasts for the next 5 days, as well as alerts on potential stormy weather in the longer range in the Stormy Weather Outlook page, always issued ahead of time.

----------------------------------------------

After the chilly conditions this weekend, Monday was warmer in the area, with high temperatures reaching the lower 60s in parts of the area. The warmer temperatures are expected to continue, however they should be brief.

Outlook For Week Ahead

Tuesday should be warmer across the area, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 60s to lower 70s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wednesday should have the same temperatures, if not slightly warmer.

By Wednesday night, a storm is expected to pass to our south, bringing clouds to the area with scattered showers possible. As a colder air mass approaches from our northwest along with a cold front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Thursday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across the area. This frontal passage was previously expected to be on Thursday night to Friday morning, however the timing of this has been pushed earlier.

Friday should be slightly colder than average, with high temperatures returning into the lower 60s. Partly Sunny skies are expected, as the light rain should have passed the area.

Stormy Conditions To Return By Sunday

*** Due to increasing confidence in a potentially heavy rain event, an Orange Alert has been issued for this storm, which stands for a 30 to 70 percent chance of significant rainfall. ***

The storm that I previously discussed on Saturday is still shown on the models, and is expected to produce heavy rains along its path. This large storm is expected to approach the area on Saturday, however some suppression will keep the rain to our south until at least Sunday, when light rain is expected to begin falling. As the low pressure approaches the area, with a warm front moving towards the area, the rain is likely to pick up in intensity, and may fall heavy at times between Sunday evening and Monday evening. There is still uncertainty on the exact timing of the storm though, so these time frames may be off.

Due to the size of this storm, this should be a long duration event, with rain likely from Sunday until Tuesday, possibly earlier or later depending on the timing of the storm. This storm is expected to produce large amounts of rain, which may potentially affect the area if the wetter case scenario verifies. At this time, there is the potential for over an inch of rain with this storm. Stay tuned for more updates on this potential storm.

April 17: Week Ahead, Next Storm Potential

New Updates: A summary of yesterday's storm, along with severe weather and snow reports, has been added in the Storm Summary page.

-----------------------------------------

The rain last night has moved out by now, with rainfall amounts locally reaching 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain. As my April outlook expected, this month should have below average precipitation, which so far is the case, with some areas only at 1/2 inch of rain for the month.

Today should also be chilly, with below average temperatures in the area. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 50s inland, and in the mid to upper 50s in the New York City area. Tomorrow should be only slightly warmer than today, with high temperatures still in the 50s. There is a chance of scattered showers throughout the weekend, with cloudy to mostly cloudy skies expected on both days.

Warmer Temperatures Next Week, Light Rain To End

Next week should be different than this weekend. While Monday should still be chilly, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s, less clouds are expected than this weekend, with partly sunny skies. Tuesday should start to warm up, with high temperatures reaching the mid 60s in parts of the area, and Wednesday having highs in the mid to upper 60s. Thursday should be the warmest day next week, with high temperatures reaching the lower 70s and potentially the mid 70s in parts of the area.

The models continue to show a cold air mass in southern Canada on Friday, but instead of bringing the cold air into our area, the models keep this cold air mass mainly to our north while weakening it. As a result, slightly above average temperatures are expected to continue on Friday with a chance of showers.

Storm Potential Returns Next Weekend

By Thursday, the models start to organize a storm in the Rockies, that moves east into the Plains and towards the Ohio Valley. This storm is shown to be large on the models, as well as bringing potentially moderate to heavy rain amounts. The 06z GFS on hour 180 (Saturday afternoon) shows the large size of this storm, extending rain from the Atlantic Ocean to North Dakota. The green and blue represent rain on this map.





Link to 06z GFS run

While there is still uncertainty on this time period, and whether there is a storm or not, there is the potential for wet weather next weekend that needs to be watched.

April 16 Storm Updates

Brief updates on the storms this afternoon and tonight are going to be posted below. The latest radar loop can be found in the top right corner of the page, with radar images posted below.

The radar images are from the National Weather Service.

----------------------------------------

9:55 PM: Looking at the radar in the northern Mid Atlantic, the heavier rain totals for tonight are focused in the areas that are outlined in black on the radar image posted to the left, including northern New Jersey, southeastern New York, Long Island, and Connecticut. Additional rainfall amouts up to 1/4 inch are expected tonight, with locally higher amounts in the heavier rain showers. The rain is expected to slowly end from west to east between 11:30 PM and 1:30 AM.

9:10 PM: Widespread moderate rain is now moving through the area, with several heavy rain bands. The first band is currently entering Bergen County, and should move into the southern half of Westchester county and Long Island soon. The second band is now entering Orange County, with rain also expected to pick up in intensity in Sussex county.

There is a break in the rain for places further south, such as Middlesex county, though additional rain should enter those areas within the next 30 minutes.

6:49 PM: A heavy rain squall, with thunderstorms and potentially strong wind gusts, just passed through Elizabeth, New Jersey. The storm is about to move into Staten Island, and is expected to reach Queens, Brooklyn, JFK Airport, and Long Beach in the next 30 to 40 minutes.

6:03 PM: Light to moderate rain is now moving through the New York City area, with the heavier rain showers in Connecticut and southeastern New York. Scattered showers can be expected further south. Additional light rain is expected later on, when the area of rain in NE Pennsylvania reaches the area.

5:02 PM: An area of moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms is currently affecting Orange county, and is moving into Sussex. Rainfall amounts between 0.1 and 0.2 inch of rain are possible out of this area of rain, as well as locally strong wind gusts.

April 16: Rain And Storms Tonight

As previously expected, today ended up with a tight temperature gradient, though the gradient was slightly further south/west than I expected. While northeastern New Jersey is only in the mid 50s, southern New Jersey is already reaching 80 degrees.

Rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue to move east, entering the rest of the area, and lasting until later tonight. 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is expected by the time that the rain ends across the area. I will soon start storm observations, with frequent updates as well as focusing on specific storms and what areas they might impact.

Weekend Forecast: Cloudy, Dry And Chilly

Temperatures are expected to remain chilly through this weekend. Tomorrow is expected to have high temperatures in the mid 50s, however due to the cloud cover, overnight temperatures are only expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s inland, and the lower to mid 40s in the New York City area. Sunday should be slightly warmer, in the mid to upper 50s, with mostly to partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows should be around those of Saturday night.

Next Week Forecast: Dry Start, Potentially Rainy End

Next week is expected to start out chilly, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Monday, but slowly trend warmer, with high temperatures in the 60s, possibly reaching the lower 70s, by the second part of the week.

By the late week, some of the models are showing a light rain event, with colder temperatures once again entering the area for next weekend. There is still uncertainty on this time period, and whether it gets colder or warmer by next weekend, though at this time it does appear that some rain might be possible next Friday.

April 15: Rain Tomorrow, Dry Week Ahead

I am only able to do a brief update tonight, though tomorrow I should be able to make a full update.

Tonight is expected to have cloudy skies across the area, with an occasional shower or two. Tomorrow should also be mainly cloudy, though showers should increase throughout the afternoon, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Rain and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow evening with low temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with scattered showers lasting until Saturday morning. A total of 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is expected, with locally higher amounts, especially in Connecticut.

Saturday should be chilly, with high temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland, and in the lower to mid 50s in the New York City area. Sunday should have mostly cloudy skies with slightly warmer temperatures. Throughout next week, temperatures slowly warm into the 60s, with dry conditions expected. The next potential for rain could be late next week or early next weekend, though there is still uncertainty on that time period.

April 14: Rain Returns On Friday

After the frost that was observed last night away from the coast, today warmed up into the 60s across the area with sunny skies. Tonight should be chilly again, with frost inland, however the frost should not be as widespread as it was last night. The 5-day forecast has lows in the mid to upper 30s inland, which could be locally in the lower 30s, in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the area just north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s in NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow should be much warmer, with temperatures returning into the lower 70s, possibly reaching the mid 70s. Unlike today, however, there should be more clouds, as a storm approaches the area.

Rain Returns Thursday Night Through Friday Night

The next storm to affect our area with precipitation, the second one to do so this month, is expected to bring light to moderate rain to the area between Thursday night and Friday night, with the heaviest rain staying to our north in New England and Upstate New York, with 1 to 2 inches of rain. Some snow is even expected in the higher elevations of Vermont and New Hampshire.

We are looking at a storm that will move towards the area from our northwest, which is expected to then move offshore, and move ENE south of Long Island. A warm front will first move through on Thursday night, however only light rain showers are expected out of this warm front, with less than 0.1 inch of rain expected.

Friday is expected to have cloudy skies with scattered showers at first, and as the cold front approaches, light to moderate rain and a few thunderstorms are expected to start in the afternoon. There may be some locally heavy rain on Friday evening. The showers and thunderstorms should end on Friday night, with scattered showers possible before Saturday afternoon.

Forecasting the temperatures for Friday was tricky, as there is no model consensus yet. While some models, such as the GFS and NAM, show high temperatures in the lower 50s, the GGEM shows high temperatures in the 60s. A sharp temperature gradient is expected, which can be seen for example on the 18z GFS, which has high temperatures in the lower 70s in Philadelphia, and in the 50s in New York City. There is uncertainty on where the exact gradient sets up, which means that the temperatures could end up being anywhere from the mid 50s to the upper 60s. At this time, I decided to lean towards the lower end of that range, in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Overall, at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is expected in the area with locally higher amounts, except for eastern Long Island and eastern Connecticut that should see 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain. Most of the rain should fall on Friday evening out of this storm, though light rain showers are still expected earlier.



Longer Range Outlook: Dry Conditions To Return

After this storm, the weekend should have below average temperatures. High temperatures on Saturday should generally be in the mid 50s due to the cloud cover. Sunday should be slightly warmer, in the mid to upper 50s, and Monday returns into the 60s. The rest of the week should have near to slightly above average temperatures, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. No rain is expected during this time period.

April 13: Last Week's Heat, Forecast For Week Ahead

During the week that I did not update the blog, the most notable event that took place was the heat on Wednesday, April 7. Temperatures were able to soar into the 90s across parts of the area, including Central Park, which is even more than 30 degrees above the average highs for this time of the year!

After some rain on Friday, the temperatures did cool down as expected, but were not as cold as I predicted, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s instead of the lower to mid 50s.

Frost Tonight, Followed By Warmer Conditions

With mainly clear skies, temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the 30s inland, with frost expected away from the coast. Frost advisories have been issued for parts of New Jersey, southeastern New York, and Connecticut by the National Weather Service. Temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 30s inland, in the upper 30s in the immediate suburbs, and in the lower to mid 40s for New York City and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow will start a warming trend, however that should not be anything near the heat we've recently seen. Tomorrow's temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s, with Thursday being the warmest day, having high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Rain On Friday, Colder Conditions Return Once Again

After the warmer temperatures on Tuesday, a storm will cool down the temperatures once again. While the heaviest rain is expected to stay well north of the area, some rain is still expected to fall. Light to moderate rain is likely on Thursday night to Friday morning as the warm front moves through, followed by drier conditions on Friday afternoon. Additional rain and some thunderstorms are likely on Friday evening as the cold front moves through. At least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is expected, with locally higher amounts.

The rain ends early Saturday morning, though clouds and a few scattered showers are expected to last, with high temperatures below average, in the mid to upper 50s. Overnight temperatures may reach the lower 30s once again in the interior. Sunday should still be chilly, with high temperatures similar to Saturday, though by Monday we should see temperatures warming up once again into the 60s, potentially reaching the lower 70s later in the week in the warmer case scenario.

Orange Alert For Thunderstorms Tomorrow

***NOTE: The blog is on a break, so there will be no updates until early next week.***

-------------------------

It now appears that other than the scattered showers tomorrow, there could also be locally strong to severe thunderstorms, especially in the western half of the area. An Orange Alert has been issued for this storm, which can be found in the Stormy Weather Outlook page and also below.

-------------------------

A front is expected to approach the area but should stay north of the area, and is expected to move north afterwards as a warm front. Areas of moderate rain are possible north of this front, and to its south, thunderstorms could develop. With dew points in the 50s, CAPE between 500 and 1000 jkg-1, and Lift Index between -2 and -4, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop, which a few could become strong to severe. Any strong or severe thunderstorm should weaken or dissipate by the late evening hours.

At this time, the main threat out of these storms is strong wind gusts and potentially small hail. While some thunderstorms could reach the New York City area, the majority of the storms should be from northwestern New Jersey and further north/west.

April 5: Some Rain On Friday, Longer Range

Due to the help of a north/west wind, temperatures were able to even warm up along the immediate coast yesterday, reaching the 60s and 70s instead of the 40s and 50s. Despite a south wind today, temperatures should still warm up into the 70s except for the immediate coast, which should stay in the 60s. Temperatures are expected to be today in the 60s along the immediate coast, in the lower to mid 70s in NYC, in the mid to upper 70s in the north and west suburbs, and in the lower to mid 70s in the interior (NW NJ and Orange County, NY).

As I mentioned in my update on Saturday afternoon, tomorrow should be significantly warmer instead of colder. A few scattered showers are possible tonight, though any shower ends by tomorrow morning, with temperatures quickly warming up. With the help of a southwest wind, temperatures are able to warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast, in the upper 70s in NYC, in the lower 80s in the north and west suburbs, and in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the interior.

Unlike the last few nights, tomorrow night should stay mild. Temperatures overnight are only expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s in the interior, and in the lower 60s for the NYC area except for the immediate coast. Wednesday should be the warmest day of this warm spell, with temperatures warming into the lower 70s along the immediate coast, in the lower 80s for NYC, in the mid 80s for the north and west suburbs, and in the lower to mid 80s for the interior. These temperatures are only the average highs in June!

Late Week Storm Update

Blue Alert is in effect for Thursday/Friday, click here for more details.

The storm for Thursday and Friday has trended drier, leading me to downgrade the Orange alert to a blue alert. Light to moderate rain and thunderstorms are expected to start on Thursday night, and continue until Friday morning as a cold front moves through. Rainfall amounts are expected to be near 1/2 inch, with locally higher amounts up to 3/4 or 1 inch in the heavier rain showers.

Friday's high temperatures should be colder, in the upper 50s to lower-mid 60s across the area, due to the cold front. Colder temperatures continue to move in, and by Friday night, temperatures should return into the 30s away from the coast.

As my April outlook expected, there will be a period of colder temperatures after this storm, which should be next weekend. High temperatures next weekend should be chilly, generally in the mid 50s, though another warm air mass is expected to approach the area by the late weekend. As a result, Sunday's temperatures will start to become warmer, with temperatures likely returning into the 70s by next week.

Late Afternoon Updates

There have been some rather significant changes from my forecast that I made this morning, including the temperatures for tonight, the mid week temperatures, and the late week storm. Below are the updates:

1. Due to an increasing ESE wind, temperatures across the immediate coast and the NYC area have significantly dropped, and are now in the 40s and 50s, which was the forecast low for tonight. As a result, in the 5-Day Forecast page, I am lowering tonight's temperatures to the mid to upper 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. I also added a mention of areas of fog for the NYC area.

2. The models now show temperatures on Tuesday being warmer than previous days, not colder as was previously shown. As a result, I changed Tuesday's highs to the mid-upper 70s for the NYC area and in the mid 70s inland, instead of the mid-upper 60s. Wednesday's forecast remains the same, with highs in the 80s west of New York City.

3. The models continued to trend wetter for the late week storm, and may trend even wetter. As a result, I have issued an Orange Alert for this storm, representing a 30 to 70 percent chance of significant rain or storms. Strong to severe thunderstorms might also be possible, as some factors for severe weather might be in place. Additional information for this storm can be found in the details for the Orange Alert, as well as my previous post.

Late Week Storm Update

Today's 12z GFS run showed a completely different scenario for the late week storm than the previous runs. While up to now, the models showed a cold front moving through with some light rain and thunderstorms, followed by colder conditions, the latest GFS run takes the storm in a different path.

The previous GFS runs had a strong low moving towards the Great Lakes, bringing a cold front through with light rain and thunderstorms. For example, this is what the 06z GFS showed for hour 114 (Wednesday night):



Instead of showing the solution above, the 12z GFS develops a cut off low that tracks through the southern Ohio Valley. The result is this, by hour 150 (Friday afternoon):



Link to 12z GFS run

This run ends up bringing nearly an inch of rain to the area, which if the scenario verifies, could bring flooding problems once again to parts of the area. So far, the GFS is not alone in showing this, as the UKMET showed a similar solution, followed by the HPC.

While I'm waiting until tomorrow to see whether the models show a similar solution, it is a very possible solution, which if verifies, could bring another round of heavy rain to the area. Stay tuned for updates on this potential storm.

April 3: Warmth To Peak On Wednesday

This morning is still chilly in parts of the area, especially along the coast due to the influence from the colder water offshore, though temperatures there aren't expected to warm by a lot due to the same influence from the ocean. High temperatures today are expected to be in the upper 50s to 60s along the immediate coast, in the upper 60s to lower 70s for New York City, in the lower to mid 70s in the north and western suburbs, and in the mid to upper 70s inland.


Tomorrow, however, will be a different story for places closer to the coast. The winds that caused the sea breeze came from the south. By tomorrow, the winds are expected to switch direction, and come mainly from the west, which will also allow coastal areas to get warmer. High temperatures tomorrow are expected to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast, in the lower to mid 70s for NYC, and in the mid to occasionally upper 70s north and west of NYC. The inland areas should be slightly colder than today.


Monday should also be warm, and with the lack of sea breeze, temperatures are expected to reach the 70s across a rather widespread part of the area, except for the immediate coast.


Tuesday Through Friday Forecast:


By Tuesday, a weak cold front reaches the area, bringing along with it scattered showers, which should mainly stay to our north. This will bring slightly colder highs, in the upper 60s across the area, with lower 70s south of New York City. By Tuesday night, the front moves north, away from the area, with a much warmer air mass moving in. With a possible southwest wind, this would limit any widespread sea breeze, and temperatures should easily reach the 70s across the area, with lower 80s even possible away from the immediate coast.


A cold front then approaches the area on Thursday, with slightly colder high temperatures, in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This cold front brings some rain and thunderstorms on Thursday and Thursday night, though how much rain falls is still uncertain. Behind this cold front, much colder temperatures return, with high temperatures returning into the 50s and 60s.

April 2: Rain To Return Late Next Week

Today is expected to have high temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s along the immediate coast, in the upper 60s to lower 70s not too far from the coast including NYC, in the lower to mid 70s for the immediate north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the mid to upper 70s in the interior.

Tomorrow should have at least the same temperatures, though Sunday should be warmer for the New York City area, with highs in the lower to mid 60s along the coast, and in the lower to mid 70s for NYC, and in the mid to upper 70s for the north and western suburbs. The interior will be slightly colder on Sunday, with highs in the mid 70s.

Monday To Wednesday: Some Rain, Then Warmth

While Monday should still be relatively warm, with high temperatures in the lower 70s away from the coast, Tuesday should be different. An approaching front is expected to bring light rain showers to the area on Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, though only light rain amounts are expected, less than 0.1 to 0.2 inch.

This front is then pushed northward by a developing system, which brings much warmer temperatures to the area on Wednesday. While the immediate coast should not warm up as much, inland areas have the potential to reach the upper 70s to potentially 80 degrees.

Thursday And Friday: Rain And Thunderstorms Possible

By Thursday, the cold front starts to approach the area. While high temperatures should still be warm, in the upper 60s to lower 70s, rain is expected to start approaching the area. There is still uncertainty on the exact time the cold front moves through, though it should be sometime between Thursday and Friday. At this time, I am expecting the cold front to move through on Thursday night to Friday morning, with periods of rain and thunderstorms. More details can be found in the Stormy Weather Outlook page, where a blue alert has been issued for this storm (Less than 30% chance of significant rain or storms).

April 1: Warm Weekend Ahead

Note:
My April Outlook has now been posted in the Long Range Forecasts section. I am expecting at this time above average temperatures and slightly below average precipitation this month. The "Stormy Weather Outlook" page continues to be updated daily.

--------------------------------

After a relatively warm day today, with highs reaching the 70s in parts of the area, tonight is not going to be as cold as some previous night were, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 40s in the interior, and in the mid to upper 40s in the rest of the area.

Tomorrow should be warmer over the interior, but still chilly over the coast. Highs should be in the mid to upper 70s in the interior areas, and in the lower to mid 70s in the areas closer to New York City, though ocean influence will limit temperatures along the immediate coast, which should stay in the upper 50s to 60s.

Saturday starts to become slightly warmer along the coast, as well as being the warmest day of this warm spell in the interior. High temperatures in the upper 70s are likely in the interior, with temperatures also reaching the mid to upper 70s closer to New York City. In NYC, high temperatures should peak in the lower to mid 70s, and temperatures should be in the 60s along the immediate coast.

Sunday should be the warmest day for places closer to the coast. While the interior is slightly colder, with high temperatures in the mid 70s, the area just inland from the coast in New Jersey should reach the upper 70s, with even lower 80s possible up to interior northeastern New Jersey. The immediate coast should have highs in the 60s, and even some places may reach 70 degrees along the coast.

Forecast For Next Week

Monday will be slightly colder for the rest of the area, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Even the immediate coast might reach the lower 70s on Monday. Meanwhile, a weak cold front approaches the area, and should bring clouds and isolated showers on Tuesday. Temperatures will also cool down into the lower to mid 60s.

As another storm organizes well north and west of the area, temperatures are expected to be warmer on Wednesday, likely reaching the 70s. On Thursday, the storm moves towards the area, with high temperatures still in the 60s and 70s. The cold front should impact the area between Thursday and Friday, with rain and thunderstorms possible. At this time, the models show only a light precipitation event, however it is possible that it could end up wetter.