April 30, 2011: Chilly And Rainy Start To May

Note: The 5-Day Forecast will be updated on Sunday morning, as well as the Short Range Severe Weather section.

-----------------------------------------------------

As an upper level low exited the region, today brought mostly to partly sunny skies to the area along with comfortable temperatures, reaching the lower to mid 60s inland, upper 60s to lower 70s in the immediate NYC area, and in the lower to mid 60s as well for Long Island and southern Connecticut.

Tomorrow will bring dry conditions to the area again, however cloud cover will increase late in the day as a cold front slowly approaches from the west, bringing a low risk of severe weather to parts of the South which will stay away from the hardest hit areas from Wednesday's outbreak. This cold front, however, will bring an end to the brief break from the active pattern, as a wave from this front will become a cut off low by mid week sitting over the Northeast, which combined with a -NAO and a trough over the NE US, will likely bring a chilly and wet pattern into the region.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Mostly sunny skies are expected again tomorrow, but cloud cover will increase towards the evening. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s east of NYC, and in the mid to upper 60s from NYC and further west.

Monday - Tuesday: Cold Front Slowly Approaches

The cold front previously mentioned will slowly move east towards the region. On Monday, rain associated with the front will enter the western parts of the region, such as Pennsylvania and western NY, however as the cold front slows down, rain will have difficulty getting east of the Interstate 95 corridor, and as a result, mainly cloudy skies are expected across the area with the best chane for showers from NYC and further west. With the warm sector staying south of the area, no thunderstorms are expected, and with an onshore SSE wind expected as well, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s east of NYC, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s from NYC and further west.

The front will significantly slow down on Monday night, and is expected to stall from NYC and further southwest on Tuesday. The NAM model is currently the westernmost and strongest outlier, keeping the low pressure well west of the area with the warm sector getting as far west as Kentucky. The NAM is likely going too strong with the storm, and its 18z late afternoon run did shift slightly east and weaker, therefore I went with the further east models, such as the GFS and GGEM. The GFS is showing signs of potential severe weather in the southern Mid Atlantic on Tuesday, and while no significant severe weather outbreak will take place, any severe weather potential will be watched.

Wednesday And Beyond: Cut Off Low Brings Rain, Clouds

As the cold front stalls near the area, a wave of low pressure will develop in the Southeast US and move northeast, just west of the coast. The heaviest rain will stay west of the area, though moderate rain is expected as well across the area with the heaviest rain west of NYC, and overnight temperatures will be steady in the 50s. On Wednesday, the storm is likely to stall near eastern New England, with rain expected to weaken in the area. Both the 18z GFS and 12z GGEM are currently the outliers out of today's models, with the 18z GFS stalling the storm over the area and the 12z GGEM quickly moving the storm out of the region, however as there is uncertainty, the location where the storm stalls, if it does so, may vary over the next few days. Stay tuned for more information on this storm.

Regardless of whether the storm stalls or not, Thursday and Friday will be mostly dry, though the temperatures and cloud cover depends on the storm. Going by the likely scenario, should the storm stall, mostly cloudy skies will stay in place on both days, with temperatures slowly warming up, reaching the mid to potentially upper 60s at most on Friday. Should the storm keep moving away from the area, mostly clear skies will be in place for Thursday and Friday with temperatures rising into the mid 60s to lower 70s from NYC and further west.

By Saturday, uncertainty increases with the smaller details, however another disturbance is expected to move towards the region from the Great Lakes with the trough still stuck over the region, and there is another chance of rain over the weekend. Beyond next weekend, the smaller details cannot be nailed down yet, but with the -NAO and the trough in place, a much warmer pattern isn't likely to quickly return. More information will be posted as details become clearer.

April 29, 2011: Quiet Weather Won't Last Long

Note: The 5-Day Forecast was updated tonight. In addition, the new "Short Range Severe Weather" section in the right side of the page has been updated.

---------------------------------------------------------

With yesterday's cold front exiting the region, an upper level low in place produced mainly cloudy skies and scattered showers, however with this exiting the area and a high pressure moving in, this weekend will bring mostly sunny skies and dry conditions along with comfortable temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. After consistent cloud cover and rain across the area this month and the tornado outbreaks over the last several days, a break in the active pattern is finally taking place, but this break will not last for long as a cold front on Monday will bring back a cloudy, chilly and rainy pattern into the area.

Weekend Outlook:

Tomorrow is going to be the first and last comfortable day with mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures for a while. With a high pressure in place, mainly sunny skies are expected across the area, with high temperatures expected to be in the lower to upper 60s across the area. A few lower 70s cannot be ruled out near and southwest of NYC.

Sunday is expected to bring an onshore wind once again, which will limit how warm the coastal areas will get, with high temperatures expected to stay in the mid 50s to lower 60s east of NYC, and in the mid to upper 60s from NYC and further west. A few lower 70s cannot be ruled out again in portions of northern NJ.

Monday - Tuesday: Cold Front Brings Rain, But No Severe Storms

A storm expected to bring a blizzard to portions of the north central US tomorrow will slowly move east, bringing a cold front through. Fortunately, this cold front will not be capable of producing widespread severe weather outbreaks, and in fact is expected to spare most of the region of any severe thunderstorms except for the southwestern parts, which may potentially see some strong/severe storms.

The models are keeping the area north of the warm sector, meaning that temperatures fail to get much above the 60 degree mark on Monday, if they do so at all. At this time, I am expecting high temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area on Monday, with the coldest temperatures further east, though temperatures are subject to slight changes. The cold front will bring rain during the afternoon and evening hours, and while a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, this will be mostly a plain rain, not a thunderstorm event for the area.

During Tuesday, as the cold front slows down, scattered showers are expected with high temperatures reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s across the area, however this cold front will not be quick to move through, with a wave of low pressure on Wednesday bringing the potential for heavy rain in parts of the region.

Wednesday - Thursday: Chilly, Rainy

A wave of low pressure is expected to develop along the cold front and move up right along the coast on Wednesday, bringing widespread rainfall across the region. The GFS model intensifies this storm into a well organized coastal low, and even showed snow in parts of the Northeast in some of its runs, however the storm is unlikely to follow that scenario, and at this time, I went closer to the ECMWF model, with a wave of low pressure moving up the coast and potentially slowing down or stalling on Wednesday night.

This scenario is subject to change and is not final yet, however at this time, rain is expected to move in during the day on Wednesday, and may be moderate or potentially heavy especially during the evening and early overnight hours. The rain will continue through parts of Thursday before ending. Chilly temperatures are also expected on Wednesday, and for tonight's forecast I went with the warmer models, expecting highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the area. Once again, this forecast is not final as there is still some slight uncertainty and is subject to change, but regardless of the exact scenario, rain is expected on Wednesday into Thursday, which may potentially be moderate or heavy. Stay tuned for more information on this storm.

April 28, 2011 Noon: Severe Weather Over For Now

5:10 PM: A storm that brought a widespread and destructive tornado outbreak to the SE US yesterday, with 165 tornadoes reported so far in that region with over 200 deaths, reached the region this morning and early afternoon, producing severe thunderstorms from NYC and further west with a potential tornado in Morris county. Yesterday, there was some doubt that severe weather would reach its full potential with the storm's timing not being very supportive, and while the supportive parameters helped make up for the timing issue, with today's severe weather slightly exceeding expectations, today's outbreak could have been much more worse had the squall line reached the area several hours later with more sunshine before the storms.

Storms first reached the westernmost parts of the area early this morning, much earlier than originally expected. These storms failed to make it much further east, however a more organized and intense squall line began developing in eastern PA and moved towards the area by the late morning. This line began affecting the western parts of the area around 11 AM-noon, along with a tornado warned storm that later moved into Morris County. It is possible that this storm may have produced a tornado or a funnel cloud, however at this time there is no official tornado report. As this storm moved into Rockland County, more strong thunderstorms formed near central NJ and moved through the rest of NE NJ, producing heavy rain and gusty winds. Estimated rainfall amounts from the radar are between 1/2 and 1, locally 1.5 inches from NYC and further west, and generally between 0.1 and 0.3 inch east of NYC.

The storms have already ended, and other than some showers tomorrow, mainly sunny skies are expected this weekend with little to no severe weather in the central and eastern US. The next full update will be posted tomorrow.

April 27, 2011 Brief Update

Note: Tonight's update does not include the 5-Day Forecast. The 5-Day Forecast page will likely be updated tomorrow.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Tonight and Tomorrow: Heavy Rain, Wind With Storms Tomorrow

A strong storm today brought a widespread tornado outbreak to the South, where so far 127 tornadoes have been reported, with more possible. This storm will move towards the region, producing heavy rain and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong/severe, however it is possible that the severe weather risk may be limited from the area and further north.

Bulk shear is expected to be supportive of severe weather with up to 60 knots expected, along with a lift index (LI) of up to -3, which can support at least some severe weather. The timing of the storm is an issue, however, with rain already expected to reach the western and central parts of the area between 12-3 PM. With this scenario, the line would have to reach the NYC area at least after 5 PM for there to be a better risk of severe thunderstorms.

The timing issue do not mean that there will be no storms in the area or that there won't be any significant weather as a result of this storm, as a line of heavy rain and thunderstorms is still expected to move through the area, producing heavy rainfall locally up to 1-2 inches from NYC and further west, and gusty winds. The best risk of severe weather, however, is to the south of the area, where timing will be more supportive along with better parameters and more sunshine ahead of the line. At this time, I placed NYC under a 15% risk, as at least some strong/severe thunderstorms are expected with gusty winds the main risk, however depending on tomorrow's observations, it is possible that the slight risk may be removed for some places north or well north of NYC. Stay tuned for storm updates tomorrow in the afternoon.

Longer Range: Behind the storm, comfortable and dry weather is expected for the weekend with high temperatures in the 60s, reaching the lower 70s on Sunday from NYC and further west. Early next week, around Tuesday, another cold front is expected to move through, which will produce more showers and potentially thunderstorms, however severe weather with this cold front will not be anywhere near as intense as the outbreaks that the south/central US has seen over the last week. This cold front will then be followed by cooler temperatures. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

April 27, 2011 Noon: Strong Storms

4:00 PM: Most of the day has been dry so far, other than some thunderstorms late last night, though thunderstorms are currently intensifying west of NYC while moving NNE. Two storms are currently near northern Warren county and central Passaic county, capable of producing heavy rainfall up to 1/4 inch. The main storm is currently in central Morris county and is severe, producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds up to 60 mph, and small to moderate hail. This storm will continue to move NNE, moving through West Passaic, NE Sussex County, and parts of Orange County, NY as well.

If necessary, more storm updates will be posted. Otherwise, the next full update will be tonight, updating on the strong thunderstorm threat for tomorrow, with heavy rain up to 1-2 inches resulting in flash flooding and gusty winds the main risks.

April 26, 2011: Strong Storms On Thursday

As a much warmer air mass moved into the region, temperatures today were warmer than yesterday, reaching the lower to mid 80s across northern New Jersey, however an onshore wind kept coastal locations with colder temperatures, with 70s and 60s observed in Long Island. This afternoon, severe thunderstorms affected western and central Pennsylvania and New York with strong winds, hail, and a tornado warned storm. Since then, the storms have formed a line but are expected to weaken as they move towards the area. A couple of thunderstorms may be possible tonight, especially west of NYC, however these storms are not expected to be severe by the time that they reach the area, if they do so at all.

A widespread severe weather outbreak is currently ongoing in the southern US, where a High Risk has been issued by the SPC. This is associated with a storm expected to form tomorrow and intensify while moving towards the Great Lakes, pushing the cold front east and finally starting to bring an end to the consistent severe weather in the central and southern US. This cold front will reach the area on Thursday, bringing a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in the evening hours, followed by dry and mainly sunny conditions lasting through next weekend.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

As the storm continues to organize in the southern US while moving north, yet another widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak is expected in the southern US. Unlike today, which brought partly to mostly cloudy skies to the area with dry conditions, tomorrow will bring mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the best chance of storms in the afternoon and evening hours from NYC and further west, where some storms could be strong, producing heavy rain and gusty winds.

A SSE wind is expected tomorrow, which combined with cloud cover, will bring colder temperatures for the area. Temperautres from NYC and further west are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s, with colder temperatures in coastal sections of NYC. Long Island and southern Connecticut are expected to see highs in the 60s and 50s.


Thursday: Strong/Severe Storms Reach NYC Area

As previously mentioned, the storm in the central US will continue to intensify while moving north, bringing the cold front further east. Timing is expected to be supportive for storms, with thge main line reaching the western and central parts of the area from 2-5 PM. Parameters according to the models are also supportive of some severe weather, with bulk shear up to 60-70 knots and LI up to -4. Cloud cover may be an issue that would limit the severe weather risk from becoming much higher, though there is enough support for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms to affect the region in the late afternoon hours, therefore I placed a 15% risk of severe weather for the western and central parts of the area.

Ahead of the storm, temperatures are expected to warm up into the lower to mid 70s from NYC and further west with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies in place. A squall line is then expected to move into the western and central parts of the area between 2 and 5 PM, with the main risks being heavy rainfall, with up to 1 inch of rain possible in the heavier storms, and gusty winds, with gusts up to 50 mph possible in the stronger storms. As the storms move east of NYC, they are expected to weaken, dropping below severe levels, though they may still be capable of producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds. The storms will end from west to east in the evening hours, with clearing skies overnight.


Friday and Weekend: Dry, Comfortable Weather To Return

This cold front will bring a temporary end to the active weather pattern we have seen for the last several weeks. With mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers, Friday will bring colder temperatures, only reaching the lower to mid 60s from NYC and further west with even cooler temperatures further east. After a cold Friday night, with low temperatures expected to reach the upper 30s in NW NJ/Orange County, NY, Saturday will bring warmer temperatures, returning into the upper 60s to lower 70s from NYC and further west, along with a WNW wind and mostly sunny skies. A warmer air mass will then return into the area, with Sunday bringing high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s from NYC and further west.

The models are currently split on the longer range, with solutions ranging from simply a cold front moving through to a coastal low developing. Stay tuned for more information as details become clearer.

April 25, 2011: Active Week Starting

Today started out with mainly cloudy skies across the area, however since then cloud cover has quickly cleared up when the forecast was for mainly cloudy skies to remain, and temperatures warmed up, reaching the lower to mid 70s from NYC and further west. Parts of Long Island also reached the lower 70s before cloud cover and a south wind helped cool down the temperatures.

So far, this month has been very active across the United States, with widespread, damaging and deadly severe weather and tornado outbreaks, such as April 14-16 when over 300 tornadoes were observed, and April 22 when an EF-4 tornado struck St. Louis, and consistent rain in the Northeast. This active pattern will temporarily end late this week, however the next few days will continue to be very active, with two more widespread severe weather and tornado outbreaks across the southern United States, and scattered thunderstorms for the area before a stronger storm moves through on Thursday, bringing the risk of more widespread severe weather into the region.


Tomorrow's Outlook: Much Warmer, Humid

As the warm front stays north of the area along with a much warmer air mass moving in, tomorrow will bring much warmer temperatures into the area. 850 mb temperatures are expected to be near 15c, which combined with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a SSW wind, will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 80s from NYC and further west. Mid 80s are possible in parts of northern NJ, especially in Newark, where mid 80s are expected. Further east, cooler temperatures are expected, though 70s are still expected for parts of Long Island and most of southern Connecticut.

As a strong storm moves into the Midwest, producing another round of severe thunderstorms in the South and a late season snowstorm in the Midwest, locally severe thunderstorms are expected in the western parts of the region. Some storms may reach the western parts of the area overnight, however the severe weather risk for tomorrow is very low.


Wednesday - Thursday: Storms Return

The dry conditions will only be short lasting. Wednesday will bring mostly cloudy skies once again to the area along with scattered thunderstorms. The severe weather will stay well to the southwest and west of the area, though some storms in the area could be strong, especially from NYC and further west. More of a S/SSE wind is expected, resulting in cooler temperatures across the area, though highs are still expected to reach the mid 70s from NYC and further west.

By Thursday, a stronger storm will approach from the west. Yesterday, there was some uncertainty with the timing of the storm, resulting in uncertainty with the severe weather risk, however it is likely that the storms will reach the area at least after noon, with most models showing the storms reaching the area by the late afternoon, which would be supportive of severe weather. At this time, I went with the slower solutions but going a little faster, bringing storms into NYC by 2 PM, though the actual timing could be a little faster or slower. Should this scenario verify, an organized squall line would move through the area, bringing a risk of heavy rain and gusty winds. Stay tuned for more information on this storm, as well as severe weather risk maps, with tomorrow's update.


Weekend Update: This storm's cold front will finally bring a temporary end to the active weather across the US. Temperatures will be cooler in the area, with highs expected to return into the lower to mid 60s for Friday with partly sunny skies. Saturday will start to warm up with highs returning into the upper 60s and potentially lower 70s, with the next storm expected to affect the area early next week.

April 24, 2011 Storm Updates

Storm Updates: Short term graphics will be posted as well. Click on the image to see it in a larger size.

---------------------------------------------------------------

8:35 PM: The strong storms in east central PA are currently affecting the southern parts of the area with heavy rain and thunderstorms, focusing on southern areas of NYC and SW Long Island. These storms are not severe, as the severe storms are currently in the MD/DE/southern NJ area, though they are currently producing heavy rain and thunder. These storms will weaken as they move east towards Long Island over the next 1/2 hour.

This is the last storm update for tonight. The 5-Day Forecast page was updated, and the next full update will be posted tomorrow.



6:55 PM: An area of strong thunderstorms in east central PA is moving east, and will affect New York City approximately an hour from now. There are two heavy thunderstorms near Somerset county moving northeast, which will affect Union, Essex and Hudson counties over the next 1/2 hour with a brief yet heavy downpour.

The main area of storms is currently near Allentown, PA, and moving east. These storms will move into Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex, and potentially Union counties over the next 3/4 to 1 hour, and then potentially into southern area of NYC (Staten Island, Brooklyn). These storms are capable of producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds.



4:50 PM: A strong thunderstorm formed over northern Bergen County 1/4 hour ago, and is currently over southern Westchester. This storm is moving ENE, and will affect Stamford, CT, producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Another strong storm is forming in SW CT and is moving ESE. This storm is expected to move just south of Bridgeport, CT within the next 20-30 minutes.


--------------------------------------------------------------------

Today's Storms:

4 PM: After several hours of sunshine across the area, temperatures quickly warmed up, reaching the lower to mid 70s inland, upper 70s to lower 80s in the immediate NYC area, and even reached the 70s across most of Long Island before a south wind began developing. Mostly cloudy skies are currently covering most of the area as some rain and thunderstorms are currently moving into NW NJ. These storms will continue to move ENE, reaching Westchester county and SW CT.

Looking across the region, there is currently one severe thunderstorm in northwestern Virginia. CAPE is up to 1500-2000 and LI is up to -5 in the central Mid Atlantic. Storms are expected to form and intensify in that region within the next several hours, with the highest risk of severe weather in SE PA, southern/central New Jersey and northern MD/Delaware, where storms could produce heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail. The parameters are less supportive in NYC, and even though a strong thunderstorm may be possible this evening in the immediate NYC area, the best risk of severe weather exists south of the area.

Stay tuned for storm updates that will be posted this evening.


This Week: Warm, Humid, Stormy

As the cold front stalls just south of the area tomorrow, cloudy skies with occasional showers are expected along with cooler temperatures, cooling down into the 60s and potentially the lower 70s west of NYC. Warmer temperatures will return on Tuesday and Wednesday, reaching the lower 80s from NYC and further west on Tuesday. Both days are expected to bring partly to mostly cloudy skies with a potential for scattered thunderstorms in the evening and overnight hours.

For Thursday, there is some slight uncertainty, however the latest models are suggesting that the storm may move through quickly enough to prevent any severe weather risk. More information on Thursday will be posted this evening after the rest of the evening models come out.

April 24, 2011 Morning: Strong Storms Tonight

12:00 PM: New York City is currently seeing mostly sunny skies, which is resulting in temperatures rising above the forecast temperatures from yesterday. Temperatures are already in the lower to mid 70s in the immediate NYC area and steadily rising, and with no storms expected until late this afternoon, there is enough time for temperatures to reach the lower 80s in the immediate NYC area.

The immediate NYC area is currently south of the warm front, meaning that there is the potential for severe weather later tonight. While this will not be a big outbreak like those that the central US has observed over the last several days and will again see tomorrow, there is the potential for storms to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Storms are expected to reach the area late this afternoon, with occasional showers and thunderstorms lasting through the overnight hours.

Storm updates will be posted this evening if needed. The next full update will be posted this afternoon, discussing the warmth on Tuesday with the potential for lower-mid 80s in NYC, scattered thunderstorms for Tuesday and Wednesday, and a storm on Thursday which will produce moderate-heavy rainfall and the potential for strong/severe storms.

April 23, 2011 Morning: Heavy Rain Moving In

10 PM: The 5-Day Forecast has been updated through Thursday. The next update will be posted tomorrow, with more information on the heavy rain and strong/severe thunderstorm event for Thursday.

------------------------------------------------------------

11:00 AM: Rain Moving Through


Rain associated with a storm in the Great Lakes is currently affecting the area, with an area of heavy rain currently in western Long Island after having moved through the western parts of the area. This area of rain is moving east, and will affect the rest of Long Island/southern Connecticut within the nexthour. The rain will end by noon from NYC and further west, and from 12-2 PM for the eastern parts of the area.



Sunday: Much Warmer, Strong Storms Possible

After the rain ends, the storm's warm front will move through the area late today, but the cold front will not be quick to move through, if it does so at all. The cold front will stall north of the area tonight resulting in temperatures steadily rising overnight, reaching the 60s in NYC by 12 AM.

Tomorrow, the cold front will slowly drop southeast, however the area will be in the northern edge of the warm sector, and only a small difference in the location of the front will determine whether NYC sees rain and highs in the 60s or strong thunderstorms and highs in the mid 70s. At this time, I expect NYC to reach the lower 70s tomorrow with showers and thunderstorms, potentially becoming strong with gusty winds but not reaching severe levels, mainly after noon, with a low-end slight risk for severe thunderstorms south of NYC.


Monday-Thursday: Much Warmer Temperatures

The stalled front will continue to produce occasional showers on Sunday night while dropping just south of the area, with mostly cloudy skies for Monday along with the potential for a few showers. On Monday, the stalled front will become a warm front as it lifts north of the area, though temperatures will be colder than those on Sunday, reaching the lower 60s on Sunday with a SSE wind expected. As the warm front continues to move north, a few showers are expected on Monday night, though most of the rain will stay north of the area, towards western New York.

A storm will move towards the Great Lakes on Sunday while the warm front continues to push north, which will bring a much warmer air mass into the region. A SSW wind is expected on Tuesday, which combined with partly/mostly cloudy skies, will result in high temperatures likely reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s from NYC and further west. The forecast high temperatures on Tuesday are not certain yet, and may be slightly cooler if there is more cloud cover than expected. Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be similar to each other, with a risk of severe weather towards the western parts of the region each day and a slight risk of an isolated thunderstorm in the area. Wednesday, however, will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the area, with more of a SSE wind. Breezy conditions are expected for both days.

By Thursday, a stronger storm is expected to develop and move towards the Great Lakes, with the models indicating that the storm will become negatively tilted as it moves towards the region. As should be expected with something several days away, there is uncertainty with the smaller details, however this storm is likely to produce heavy rain and strong, potentially severe thunderstorms, with gusty winds the main risk. Stay tuned for more information on this storm and how it may affect the area.

April 22, 2011: Warmth To Finally Return

The last week brought mainly chilly temperatures to the area, especially on Tuesday when temperatures only reached the mid to upper 40s inland and the lower to mid 50s across the rest of the area. As a high pressure moved over the region, yesterday morning brought very cold low temperatures, getting as low as the mid 20s in Orange County, NY. A storm moving into the region will produce heavy rain through tomorrow afternoon once again with high temperatures barely reaching the 60 degree mark in NYC, though much warmer temperatures will finally return next week, with the Tuesday-Thursday time frame expected to bring high temperatures near or above 70 degrees for parts of the area.



Tonight-Tomorrow: Heavy Rain Expected

A storm currently bringing a severe weather outbreak in the central US will continue to move east, bringing heavy rainfall to the area. Occasional showers will continue for now, with steadier rain expected to develop after 12 AM. The heaviest rain will fall on Saturday morning, with most of the rain expected to end from NYC and further west by at least 2 PM. By the time that the storm ends, at least 3/4 to 1.5 inch of rain is expected to fall across the area, with the highest rain totals west of NYC. Temperatures are expected to steadily rise throughout the day, peaking in the lower to upper 50s east of NYC and in the upper 50s to mid 60s from NYC and further west.


Warm Sunday, Cooler Monday

By Sunday, there is some uncertainty with the scenario. The NAM and CMC are showing high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s in NYC with some non-severe storms overnight, however the GFS is showing much warmer temperatures, reaching the lower to mid 70s in NYC with parameters supporting strong/potentially severe thunderstorms in the evening and early overnight hours. I will look into this potential in more details with tomorrow's update, however at this time I expect temperatures to reach at least the lower 70s in NYC on Sunday with mostly cloudy skies and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening hours. This forecast is subject to some changes, so stay tuned for more details.

Showers are expected to continue through Sunday night, with Monday bringing slightly cooler temperatures and a risk of some showers.


Longer Range: The longer range will be discussed in more details tomorrow. A storm moving into the Great Lakes on Tuesday will bring a much warmer air mass, with temperatures likely to reach the 70s in NYC on Tuesday, Wednesday and potentially Thursday. There is uncertainty for Thursday, though a storm may affect the area around Thursday, potentially bringing rain, thunderstorms and windy conditions. Stay tuned for more information with tomorrow's update.

April 17, 2011: Storm Ends, Warmth Returns

***Reminder: This blog is still on vacation. A few more brief updates may be posted, though the next full update will be posted on Saturday, 4/23.***

------------------------------------------------------

April 18 Update: A storm currently developing in the Rockies that is expected to bring yet another widespread severe weather outbreak to the central US and the Ohio Valley will move into the area on Wednesday. Initially, it appeared that the warm front would be able to move through, bringing temperatures into the lower to mid 70s for NYC with severe weather overnight, however it appears that it will be difficult for the warm front to get north of central NJ, and it may fail to reach NYC.

Clouds and showers are expected during the first half of the day with drier conditions later on, though how warm it gets and whether the cloud cover clears depends on the warm front. The NAM model is likely too cold, not even bringing NYC to the 50 degree mark, and at least lower to mid 60s are expected at this time for NYC, though it is possible that it may be slightly warmer or colder depending on where the warm front ends up. Some showers are expected overnight as the front moves through, though most of the severe weather on Wednesday night will stay to the south of NYC.

------------------------------------------------------

The storm that has affected the US over the last three days, producing 241 tornadoes from Oklahoma to North Carolina, some of them deadly, and producing a widespread heavy rain event for the Northeastern US has finally left the region, with clearing skies and dry conditions expected for today. Wind gusts were generally in the 40-55 mph range across most of the area, though rainfall amounts from NYC and further west exceeded the forecast, with widespread reports of 2.5 to 3.5 inches of rain in northern NJ. West Milford, NJ, even reported slightly over 4.5 inches of rain.

Flooding is expected to remain an issue in the western parts of the area for now, though more rain is expected this week. Showers are expected to start affecting the area on Monday night, continuing through Tuesday night. Locally moderate rain may be possible, though no significant rainfall is expected. A storm moving through the Great Lakes on Wednesday will bring warmer 850 mb temperatures into the region, though cloud cover and rain may prevent temperatures from getting too warm. High temperatures are expected to reach at least the lower-mid 70s in NYC at this time, though it is possible that temperatures may be cooler or warmer. Thursday will bring cooler temperatures after the cold front moves through, and the next storm is expected to affect the area around Sunday, 4/24.

April 16 Evening: Storm Brings Heavy Rain

8:35 PM: A storm that has produced a widespread and deadly tornado outbreak across the central and southern United States over the last 2 days is now affecting the region, and has resulted in a rare "High Risk" of severe weather issued for North Carolina and southern Virginia by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), where over 80 tornadoes have been reported so far today with the outbreak still ongoing.

So far, estimated rainfall amounts are showing that at least 3/4 to 1.5 inch of rain fell from NYC and further west up to this point, with heavy rain from the west slowly spreading in. Lighter rainfall amounts were observed further east into southern Connecticut and Long Island. Heavy rain will continue over the next several hours along with strong wind gusts up to 55 mph and thunderstorms, starting to end after 2-4 AM. By the time that the storm ends, rainfall amounts between 1.5 to 2.75 inches are expected for northern New Jersey, SE NY and New York City, with lighter amounts from 3/4 to 1.5 inch further east. Amounts may potentially reach and/or pass 3 inches in isolated areas of northern New Jersey.

April 15 Evening: Heavy Rain Tomorrow Night

10:30 PM: The "Weather Alerts" page has been updated, with a Rain Warning/Watch and a Wind Alert in effect. The Wind Alert may be upgraded to a High Wind Watch on Saturday.

-------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM: The latest models continue to show a heavy rain and thunderstorm event for tomorrow night, with the heaviest rain expected from NYC and further west with anywhere from 1.25 to as much as 2.5 inches expected. East of NYC, lighter rainfall amounts are expected, with amounts ranging from 1/2 inch further east to locally up to 1.5 inches closer to NYC. The heaviest rain is expected to fall between 8 PM and 4 AM, with with non-severe thunderstorms expected as well. Winds are expected to gust between 40 and 50 mph across parts of the area, and the potential exists for gusts up to 55 mph in the immediate NYC area and Long Island/southern Connecticut. Sunday is expected to be dry with clearing skies.

Looking at the longer range, some light rain is expected to fall on Monday night into Tuesday, with a more significant warm up for Wednesday expected, with temperatures warming up into the 70s for parts of the area and a cold front overnight producing showers and thunderstorms. Any severe weather potential is uncertain at this time, but it will be watched should there be such a potential. Another brief update will be posted tomorrow.

April 13, 2011: Rain, Wind Saturday Night

***NOTICE: The blog is on vacation. Brief updates will be posted occasionally, though daily updates will resume on Saturday, 4/23.***


The 5-Day Forecast page was updated through Monday for the immediate NYC area only, with a general outlook for next week beyond Monday discussed in more details below.

----------------------------------------------------------

As a cut off low slowly moved through the region over the last day, two rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms affected the area, the first one yesterday evening and the other round during the overnight hours. Rain totals ended up between 1 and 2 inches across most of the area, with locally lower or higher amounts also observed. With the storm moving out of the area tonight, tomorrow will bring mostly sunny skies to the area along with much warmer temperatures, reaching the mid to upper 60s in the immediate NYC area.

These mild conditions will only be brief, however, as a strong high pressure moving into the northern US will bring colder temperatures along with it for Friday, and by Saturday night, a storm is expected to affect the region with heavy rain and windy conditions.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Occasional drizzle with fog is expected to continue through this evening and parts of the overnight hours, with mostly cloudy skies expected by the morning hours. Cloud cover is expected to clear even more, with mostly sunny skies by the late afternoon. With a NW wind expected, high temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 60s across most of the area, except for Long Island which should see high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A few upper 60s cannot be ruled out in the immediate NYC area.


Friday And Saturday: Cooler Temperatures Return

On Friday, a strong high pressure will move into the northern parts of the region from Canada, bringing a strong cold air mass along with it. The worst of the cold will be felt in the northern Northeast, where high temperatures in northern Maine will stay in the lower to mid 30s, though temperatures in the area are still expected to slightly cool down, with high temperatures peaking in the lower to mid 50s across most of the area and a few upper 50s possible, especially west of NYC.

At the same time that this high pressure moves into the region, a strong storm will develop in the central United States. This storm will move towards the area, bringing increasing clouds on Friday night and mainly cloudy skies on Saturday. A relatively tight gradient is expected between the high pressure and low pressure, and windy conditions are expected to develop, especially in the eastern parts of the area. High temperatures will be cooler than those of Friday, peaking in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area.


Saturday Night - Sunday: Heavy Rain, Thunderstorms, Wind Expected

The storm is expected to begin affecting the area late on Friday afternoon or the evening hours, with showers developing and temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area. Especially between 10 PM and 5 AM, an area of heavy rain and thunderstorms is expected to move through the area, with the heaviest rainfall from NYC and further west where 1 to 2 inches of rain are expected. Gusty winds are expected, with gusts likely to end up in the 40-50 mph range in parts of the area. As the storms approach, temperatures are expected to rise, reaching the lower to mid 50s in the immediate NYC area, and cooling down after the rain ends.

The storm will end on Sunday morning with a few showers possible and skies clearing towards the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will be warmer than those of Saturday, reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s across the area. A breezy west wind is expected.


Monday - Thursday: Warmth To Return

The storm will exit the region on Sunday, however it will fail to pull down any strong cold air mass. High temperatures on Monday are expected to peak in the lower to mid 60s for most of the area, with warmer temperatures returning for Tuesday and potentially Wednesday. As should be expected for something almost a week away, there is uncertainty with the exact timing and track, however a storm may affect the area around Thursday. This storm is expected to track north of the area, meaning that it may bring warm temperatures to the area on Wednesday or Thursday, and while the exact temperatures are uncertain, NYC is likely to reach the 70s at least once, if not more, in the Monday-Thursday time frame. What happens beyond Thursday is still uncertain, however at this time it is unlikely that much colder temperatures will follow this storm.

This is the last update for now as the blog is going on vacation. Few brief updates may be posted over the next week, however the next full update will be posted on Saturday, April 23rd.

**No Update Posted 4/12/11**

No update was posted tonight. A brief update will likely be posted tomorrow in the evening.

April 11, 2011 Evening: Storms Approaching

Note: The 5-Day Forecast page was not updated tonight, though other than raising Wednesday's forecast temperatures, there are no major changes in the forecast at this time.

--------------------------------------------------

8:55 PM: As a warm front moved through the area today, the mainly cloudy skies and fog this morning cleared in the early afternoon for the central and western parts of the area, with temperatures quickly warming. Due to the influence of an onshore south wind, cloud cover and fog, Long Island and southern Connecticut stayed on the cool side today, with temperatures ending up close to the forecast, peaking in the upper 50s in Islip, NY, lower 50s in Montauk, NY, lower 60s in New Haven, CT, and in the lower 50s in New London, CT.

Further west, however, temperatures exceeded the forecast, with widespread lower to mid 80s observed in northern New Jersey. Newark, NJ even reached a summer-like high of 87 degrees! The temperature gradient in NYC was also remarkable, as places such as Central Park reached the lower 80s, while coastal areas of Brooklyn stayed in the 50s.


Forecast for tonight through Wednesday: As a cold front is moving through the region, a line of non-severe thunderstorms formed in eastern Pennsylvania, and is currently affecting the westernmost parts of the area, towards Sussex and Orange counties, with heavy rain and gusty winds. These storms will weaken as they move east, with light rain and thunderstorms expected for the immediate NYC area within the next 1-2 hours.

Most of the thunderstorms, however, are located in the Southeast, south of a low pressure currently in Tennessee. This low pressure will continue to slowly move towards the coast tomorrow, producing a moderate to heavy rainfall event for the Northeast and the Mid Atlantic. As of yesterday, this storm was expected to move just off the coast, however now it is expected to track inland, keeping the majority of the rain west of the area on Tuesday with occasional light to moderate rain expected in the NYC area. Moderate to locally heavy rain is then expected to develop after 12 AM, which will last through Wednesday morning, with occasional showers lasting through Wednesday evening. By the time that the storm ends, at least 3/4 to 1.25 inch of rain is expected across the area, with locally lower or higher amounts.


The next update will be posted tomorrow, discussing a potential heavy rain event for Saturday night in more details.

April 10, 2011: Warmth Tomorrow, Rain Likely Mid Week

Note: Today's discussion will be brief once again, though the 5-Day Forecast page was updated, and a Rain Watch has been issued for parts of the area as well.


-----------------------------------------------------

After today brought mainly cloudy skies to the area, a warm front will move through the area tonight, bringing more sunshine for tomorrow which will come along with much warmer temperatures. The exact temperatures were difficult to forecast due to an expected sharp gradient, however 50s and 60s are expected for Long Island and southern CT, with 70s for northern NJ and interior SE NY.

I labeled a large area in northern NJ in the 75-80 degree range, however it is very possible that parts of that area stay below the 75 degree mark, especially further north, or reach the lower 80s, towards the southern parts of the area and potentially into parts of NE NJ.

Wednesday: Storm Now Expected

The cold front will move through on Monday night, bringing showers and thunderstorms, locally strong, to the western parts of the area, where gusty winds are possible with the storms, and plain showers to the eastern parts of the area. Originally, the cold front was supposed to keep on moving offshore with a high pressure moving in on Wednesday, however the models over the last day have trended to showing a cut off low forming and slowly moving up the coast on Tuesday night into Wednesday. There were signs of this yesterday, but it did not appear at first that it would be as close to the coast as it is now expected to be.

As a result, occasional showers are now expected to continue through Tuesday, with steadier rain developing towards the late afternoon or evening hours. Rain will continue through Tuesday night, lasting through Wednesday around noon before starting to weaken. Due to the cloud cover, rain, and cold air associated with the cut off low, high temperatures will be very chilly on Wednesday, with the latest model guidance suggesting highs only in the lower to mid 40s across the area. At this time, I went with warmer highs, expecting mid 40s to lower 50s, however this is still quite chilly for this time of the year. There is still some slight uncertainty with the exact totals, however at least 3/4 to 1.25 inch of rain is expected at this time, with amounts potentially as high as 1.5 inch in the wetter case scenario. Stay tuned for more information on this storm.

By Thursday, the high pressure should arrive with warmer temperatures and mostly sunny skies, however temperatures will not be as warm as originally expected, with 50s expected towards the coastal areas and lower to mid 60s from NYC and further west. Friday should bring slightly cooler temperatures, and a storm is expected to approach the area around Saturday, potentially lasting through Sunday morning, which may produce additional moderate to heavy rainfall for the area. More information will be posted on this storm as details become clearer.

April 9, 2011 Brief Update

A brief update was posted tonight. The 5-Day Forecast page was updated through Wednesday, with the forecast for Thursday and beyond discussed briefly below.

------------------------------------------------

As a storm exited the coast of the Mid Atlantic early today, there was less cloud cover than expected with mostly sunny skies observed, along with high temperatures peaking in the lower to mid 60s inland, mid to upper 50s in the immediate NYC area, and in the mid 50s for the eastern parts of the area. Warmer temperatures will return on Monday after mainly cloudy conditions tomorrow, however it appears that the warmth may not be as strong as originally thought.

Sunday Into Monday: Warming Up

Tomorrow will bring mostly cloudy skies with a few showers possible. High temperatures will peak in the lower to mid 50s across the area, with a few upper 50s possible west of NYC. A south wind is expected.

As the warm front moves through overnight, temperatures will remain steady in the lower 50s across most of the area, and are expected to rise on Monday. I slightly revised the forecast from yesterday earlier this afternoon to increase the forecast temperatures, however every model has been trending noticeably colder with Monday's temperatures, some of them failing to bring NYC much above 70 degrees, and while this is only a new trend, it is unlikely that temperatures reach the lower 80s across a widespread part of the area, and are instead likely to peak in the lower to mid 70s in NYC and in the mid to upper 70s further west.

Tuesday - Saturday: Comfortable, But Not Very Warm

The cold front will move through overnight, bringing some showers and thunderstorms late on Monday night into Tuesday morning with occasional showers lasting through parts of Tuesday night. Tuesday will bring high temperatures in the lower to upper 60s for most of the area. For Wednesday, most models are showing a low pressure off the coast, and while no rain is expected at this time, the Wednesday-Thursday time frame may not be as warm as originally thought, with high temperatures generally peaking in the mid 50s to lower 60s with a few mid 60s possible west of NYC. By Friday night into Saturday, a storm is expected to move into the region, and while the exact details are still uncertain, there is the potential for moderate to heavy rain to affect the area. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

April 8, 2011: 70+ Degrees On Monday

Note: This discussion was slightly revised on Saturday (4/9) to edit Monday's forecast temperatures.

-------------------------------------------------------

A weak storm moved towards the region today, mostly affecting Pennsylvania and the central Mid Atlantic with moderate to locally heavy rain, though a high pressure in New England suppressed the storm to the south of the area, with only a few showers observed. High temperatures were in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area especially due to the cloud cover.

While tomorrow will bring some more sunshine, with partly cloudy skies expected, temperatures will not warm up just yet, with Sunday once again bringing mostly cloudy to cloudy skies and occasional showers. By Monday, however, a warm front associated with a much warmer air mass will finally manage to push its way through the area, and while coastal areas will stay chilly for Monday, through the rest of the week warmer temperatures in the 60s will spread across most of the area.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring partly cloudy skies to the area with a south/SSE wind expected. High temperatures are expected to peak in the mid to upper 50s from NYC and further west and in the lower to upper 50s further east. Parts of the immediate NYC area are expected to reach the lower 60s.


Sunday - Monday: Warm Front Pushes Through

A warm front will bring a very warm air mass into the Ohio Valley and parts of the Great Lakes on Sunday, with widespread 80s expected in those areas, however this front will struggle to reach the area at first. Sunday is expected to bring mostly cloudy skies again along with occasional showers, though no washout is expected. High temperatures will be slightly cooler than tomorrow, peaking in the lower to mid 50s across the area with a few upper 50s expected west of NYC. As the warm front gets closer to the area on Sunday night, mostly cloudy skies and some showers are expected to continue.

By Monday, the warm front is expected to push through the area, with 850 mb temperatures expected to peak between 15 to 18 degrees Celsius, however there are several issues that will prevent temperatures from surging into the 80s across the entire area. A mostly south wind is expected, which will help keep Long Island and southeastern Connecticut with much cooler temperatures, peaking in the mid 50s to mid 60s. The models are still split into two scenarios, with the GFS model showing mid 70s in NYC and the NAM barely bringing NYC to 60 degrees for the high temperature.

The NAM is most likely too cold, and I went with warmer temperatures at this time, expecting highs in the lower to mid 70s in coastal sections of NYC, with temperatures in the rest of NYC and northern NJ reaching the mid to upper 70s. Parts of northern NJ, especially towards NE NJ, are even expected to get close to, if not over the 80 degree mark. Other than an isolated shower or two early in the day, no rain is expected.

The storm's cold front will affect the area on Monday night into Tuesday morning with showers and thunderstorms expected. No severe weather is expected at this time, with the best chance for severe thunderstorms well west of the area, towards western Pennsylvania. Tuesday will bring slightly cooler temperatures but still above the average, peaking in the lower to upper 60s across most of the area. In the warmer case scenario, a few lower 70s cannot be ruled out near New York City.


Longer Range:

After the storm exits, a high pressure will move towards the region on Wednesday with mostly to partly sunny skies expected. High temperatures will stay in the lower to upper 60s across the area, with Thursday expected to bring mostly sunny skies again but with warmer temperatures, peaking in the mid to upper 60s for most of the area and in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the immediate NYC area. Beyond Thursday, there is increasing uncertainty, though Friday may bring slightly cooler temperatures, and the next potential storm may affect the area between Friday night and Sunday. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

April 7, 2011: Sustained Warmth Next Week

A weak disturbance continued to affect the area last night through this afternoon with cloudy skies and occaisonal showers, with cloud cover slightly clearing by the evening hours. High temperatures were chilly, staying in the lower to mid 50s from NYC and further west, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s east of NYC.

The cloudy and rainy conditions will last through Sunday, but as a storm develops in the central US and moves towards the Great Lakes, a much warmer air mass will return into the region, and while there is uncertainty with the temperatures in NYC, the western parts of the area towards west central NJ may reach the lower 80s, with lower to mid 70s possible in NYC. Behind this storm, temperatures will cool down a little, but mild temperatures will finally sustain themselves, with 60s expected to last through the rest of next week.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Another weak storm will move towards the region from the west, especially by the late afternoon and evening hours. A high pressure in New England will keep most of the precipitation to the south of the area, though a few showers are still expected. Partly cloudy skies are expected in the morning becoming cloudy by the evening, with high temperatures peaking in the lower to mid 50s across most of the area, except for the coast where temperatures will peak in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A SE wind is expected.


Weekend Outlook: Slowly Warming Up

As the storm exits, a very warm air mass will slowly be moving in from the southwest. Saturday will bring mostly cloudy skies again with an isolated shower or two possible, with high temperatures peaking in the mid 50s to lower 60s across most of the area, except for Long Island where temperatures will peak in the lower to upper 50s. Sunday will bring mostly cloudy skies once again with a few showers possible, and high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s from NYC and further west with lower to upper 50s near the coast again.

By Monday, 850 mb temperatures will surge to the 15c-18c range, which would usually spell temperatures reaching the 70s and 80s, though in this case, with an onshore flow expected especially east of NYC, only parts of the area will get into the warmth. There are currently two scenarios, one in which NYC sees highs only in the mid 60s with 50s for Long Island, and the other scenario is where temperatures in the lower 80s get as far as NYC/northern New Jersey. At this time, I am thinking that temperatures should reach the 70 degree mark in NYC but may not get much higher than that, with upper 60s to mid 70s in the immediate NYC area and mid to upper 70s further west. Places towards west central NJ may even reach the lower 80s.

Overnight on Monday, the storm's cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms. If the warmer case scenario verifies, some of these may be severe, however this potential is still uncertain. Behind the storm, Tuesday will bring temperatures back into the 50s to mid 60s, with mostly sunny skies expected for Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures rising into the lower to potentially upper 60s across the area.

April 6, 2011: Taste Of Summer On Monday?

As a weak disturbance quickly moved east towards the area, today brought increasing cloud cover with high temperatures peaking earlier in the afternoon, in the lower to mid 50s across the area. The weak disturbance began producing showers late this afternoon across the area, resulting in temperatures quickly dropping into the 40s, especially for the northwestern parts of the area.

This weak disturbance will continue to produce light rain through tomorrow morning, with drier conditions and more sunshine expected by tomorrow evening. Additional weak storms will continue to affect the area, producing some showers on Friday afternoon and again around Sunday, however as a storm develops in the central US by Sunday, a much warmer air mass will move into the region by Monday, potentially bringing parts of the area close to even reaching the 80 degree mark.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

The weak disturbance currently affecting the area will produce mainly cloudy skies and a few showers tomorrow morning before ending by the afternoon, with mostly cloudy skies expected afterwards. High temperatures are expected to peak in the lower to mid 50s across most of the area, except for Long Island which should peak in the upper 40s to lower 50s. An ENE/NE wind is expected.



Thursday Night - Sunday: Mainly Cloudy, Some Rain

On Thursday night, another storm, this time more organized, will approach the area from the west. A high pressure in New England will be strong enough to keep the storm mostly south of the area, however a few showers are still expected on Friday, especially towards the evening and early overnight hours. Temperatures will peak in the lower to upper 50s across the area, with the warmest temperatures in the immediate NYC area.

Saturday will bring drier conditions with mostly cloudy skies, though an isolated shower cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will slightly warm up, peaking in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the area, however the warmest conditions have yet to come. A few showers are possible on Saturday night and Sunday, with warmer temperatures on Sunday, expected to peak in the lower to mid 60s west of NYC.


Monday: A Taste Of Summer?

A storm which will organize in the central US on Sunday will move northeast on Monday towards the Great Lakes. This storm will pull in a very warm air mass, with 850 mb temperatures likely to reach and pass 15c. It is possible that cooler temperatures will get as far as the immediate NYC area with the warmest temperatures in western NJ, however in the warmer case scenario, temperatures would peak in the mid to upper 70s on Monday afternoon from NYC and further west with 60s/50s further east, and may even reach the 80 degree mark west of NYC. This would be followed by a cold front with thunderstorms on Monday night or Tuesday morning, which may be strong/severe depending on the timing of the storm. Stay tuned for more information on this storm.

April 5, 2011: Chilly, Cloudy, Rainy Pattern

A storm which brought a widespread severe weather outbreak to the southeastern United States yesterday moved into the region and the area, bringing strong thunderstorms to the western parts of the area this morning, with light to moderate rain and thunderstorms moving into the rest of the area afterwards. The cold front brought a significant drop in temperatures, dropping as much as 15 degrees in just half an hour! Temperatures dropped from the 60s west of NYC in the morning into the 40s by the late afternoon with 30s in Sussex/Orange counties. While there are no official reports of frozen precipitation there, it is possible that some sleet may have fell in the higher elevations in those areas.

The storm left the area earlier this afternoon with dry conditions in place, however the next 24 hour time frame will be the last for a while where there is no storm affecting the area, as starting tomorrow night, several weak storms will affect the area with occasional showers through the weekend and into early next week. Chilly temperatures are also expected early on, however a warm up is expected by Sunday or Monday.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring increasing clouds to the area with a few showers expected towards the evening hours. High temperatures will peak in the lower to mid 50s for most of the area with mid to upper 50s in the immediate NYC area, potentially reaching the 60 degree mark in some places. A breezy SW wind is expected, with gusts over 20 mph possible especially further east.


Wednesday Night - Saturday: Chilly, Cloudy And Rainy

A weak disturbance is expected to move into the area on Wednesday evening, which will last through Thursday afternoon. This will not be an organized storm, and will bring cloudy skies to the area along with occasional showers. Low temperatures will be steady in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area. With cloudy skies and occasional showers on Thursday, high temperatures will peak in the upper 40s to lower 50s across most of the area, with a few mid 50s possible in the immediate NYC area. Behind this disturbance, there will not be enough time for the cloud cover to clear as yet another storm, this time more organized, will approach the area from the west.

Cloudy skies will continue through Thursday night with a shower or two possible with low temperatures steady in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the area. A high pressure in New England will help suppress the storm mostly to the south of the area, moving in an ESE direction, however it is expected to be far north enough to bring at least some rain to the area, especially from 12 PM Friday into the overnight hours. High temperatures are expected to stay on the cold side, peaking in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area. The storm will continue through the middle of the overnight hours before beginning to end, with mostly cloudy skies returning by Saturday with an isolated shower or two possible along with warmer temperatures. It is possible that the storm ends up further south than expected, which would keep the area mostly dry with warmer temperatures, however at this time at least some rain is expected to affect the area.

As a strong storm is expected to organize itself towards the north central US on Sunday, a warmer air mass will begin to spread into the region, however temperatures are not expected to significantly warm up just yet, likely warming up into the mid 50s to lower 60s with a few showers possible. By Monday, if the storm is slow enough, staying west of the area during the day, temperatures will warm up even more, potentially reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s in parts of the area. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.

April 4, 2011: Cloudy And Rainy Week Ahead

Note: A brief update was posted tonight. The 5-Day Forecast was updated through Saturday.

-----------------------------------------------------

Today brought chilly temperatures to the eastern parts of the area and warmer temperatures further west, however temperatures failed to reach the forecast further west, peaking in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland, lower to mid 60s in the immediate NYC area, and in the lower to mid 50s for the eastern parts of the area.

Thunderstorms currently affecting Pennsylvania will move in from the west by at least 4-7 AM, which will produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds, with the best potential for gusty winds in Long Island. The storm will begin to end by 12-2 PM with clearing skies and increasingly windy conditions afterwards.


Late Week Into Weekend: There continues to be uncertainty with the scenario for the late week, however some light rain is expected on Wednesday night into Thursday morning with temperatures generally peaking in the 50s. Another weak storm should approach the area on Friday, bringing the potential for moderate rain for Friday afternoon and night, though there is some uncertainty with the storm's track. At this time, it is expected to take a further south track, bringing chilly temperatures peaking below 50 degrees for most of the area, though it is a possibility that the storm tracks further north, bringing less rain and warmer temperatures.

By Saturday, a much warmer air mass will return into the region, however temperatures will not warm up yet with an onshore SE/SSE wind likely. Another storm is expected to affect the Great Lakes area around Sunday/Monday, moving into the region either on Monday or on Tuesday, and depending on the storm's track, should it be far north enough, temperatures may return into the 70s by Monday for parts of the area. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range as details become clearer.

April 3, 2011: Active Pattern Ahead

Today brought partly to mostly cloudy skies to the area with high temperatures slightly warmer than yesterday, peaking in the mid to upper 50s for most of the area and in the upper 50s to lower 60s in the immediate NYC area. Cloudy skies are expected to cover the area tonight as a storm moves in from the west, bringing some rain tonight and thunderstorms on Tuesday morning. This is only the start of an active week, however, as there are more rain chances through the end of the week and into next weekend and early next week.

Looking at the latest radar, posted to the left, there is already moderate rain moving through Pennsylvania. This area of rain will affect the area tonight for a few hours, bringing light rain with a burst of moderate rain possible, and should mostly exit the area by 8 AM tomorrow with a few showers possible.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

During the day tomorrow, the low pressure is expected to move through Michigan and into Canada. This will push the warm front through the area during the day tomorrow, bringing clearing skies to the area by the late afternoon with a sharp gradient in temperatures expected. While Newark is expected to reach the lower 70s, eastern Long Island will struggle to reach the 55 degree mark by the late afternoon.

The exact gradient lines are still slightly uncertain, and temperatures for the western parts of the area may be slightly colder or warmer than shown to the left, though in the colder case scenario, places north of the NY/NJ line would stay in the 50s, with lower to mid 60s in northern New Jersey and upper 60s in NYC. In the warmer case scenario, which I partially leaned towards with tonight's forecast, high temperatures would peak in the mid to upper 60s is northern NJ and may even reach 70 degrees in NE NJ.


Monday Night - Tuesday: Rain, Thunderstorms

As the area will stay in the warm sector of the storm tomorrow night, temperatures will remain steady in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland and in the lower to mid 60s in most of the immediate NYC area. Temperatures will also remain steady in the 50s for the eastern parts of the area.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected at first, though as a line of rain and thunderstorms approaches from the west, cloud cover will increase. This line of storms is expected to bring some severe weather for the western parts of the region, such as western Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and as the line moves east, it is expected to weaken.

Rain is expected to move into the western parts of the area between 3 and 6 AM, and between 6 and 9 AM for the eastern parts of the area. As the storms move in, temperatures are expected to quickly drop in the western parts of the area into the upper 40s and lower 50s, but should slightly rise by Tuesday afternoon. Light to moderate rain and thunderstorms are expected, which may be locally heavy, along with gusty winds, and the storms should begin to move out of the area from west to east by 12 PM. Cloud cover will clear by the late afternoon with increasingly windy conditions, gusting up to 35 mph at times.


Longer Range: Temperatures are expected to remain at seasonable levels through Wednesday and Thursday with a few showers possible on Thursday. There is a lot of uncertainty for the longer range, though a warm up is likely around Saturday, with chilly conditions possible for Friday along with some rain possible. More information will be posted on the longer range as details become clearer.

April 2, 2011: Rain Returns On Monday

Sunday Morning, 4/3/11: The 5-Day Forecast has been updated through Thursday.

--------------------------------------------------

As a coastal storm that affected the region yesterday with rain and snow moved out, today brought mostly cloudy skies to the area along with breezy conditions. High temperatures peaked in the mid 50s inland and in the mid to upper 50s for the rest of the area including 60 degrees in Newark, making today the warmest day across the area in over 10 days, since winter made its last return on March 20.

Temperatures will continue to warm up, peaking again in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the area, though tomorrow night will bring cloudy skies again as the next storm approaches. While this storm will not bring any wintry precipitation to the area, thunderstorms are a possibility, especially on Monday night.


Tomorrow's Outlook:

Tomorrow morning is expected to bring less cloud cover to the area, starting out with mostly sunny skies, but cloud cover will increase by the evening as the next storm approaches from the north central US. High temperatures will be slightly warmer than today, peaking in the mid to upper 50s for most of the area with a few lower 60s in the immediate NYC area. A breezy WNW wind is expected once again, with gusts expected to reach the 20-30 mph range in parts of the area.


Sunday Night - Tuesday: Storm To Bring Warmth, Potentially T-Storms

A storm expected to produce a significant winter storm in the north central US will move eastwards, affecting the area from Sunday night through Tuesday morning. This storm will bring a variety of conditions to the Northeast, ranging from a snowstorm in the northern Northeast to severe thunderstorms and temperatures reaching the 80s in the southern parts of the region. The exact storm scenario is still slightly uncertain, with timing the main issue, though there is less uncertainty than there was over the last several days.


Sunday Night: As the storm moves east, it is expected to move into a cold air mass in place over the region. 850 mb temperatures will be marginal, and with 925 mb and surface temperatures too warm in the area, rain is expected to fall in the interior parts of the area such as Sussex and Orange counties. Further inland, however, towards the Catskills and the rest of the interior NE, temperatures will be cold enough for the storm to start out with a burst of snow. Rain will begin falling in the area after midnight, and may be moderate at times. Light rainfall amounts are expected for the main part, and the rain should begin to weaken by the morning hours.


Monday: The rain from the front end of the storm should continue through the early morning hours, though by 8-10 AM, the rain should mostly end, with a few showers possible afterwards. As the low pressure intensifies while moving through Michigan into Canada, its warm front will move through the area, with increasing temperatures throughout the day, peaking in the evening in the upper 50s to lower 60s inland and in the lower to mid 60s for the rest of the area with upper 60s in parts of the immediate NYC area. It is possible that in the warmer case scenario, Newark or even NYC could reach 70 degrees. Cloudy skies are expected in the morning with clearing to partly/mostly cloudy skies by the late afternoon.


Monday Night - Tuesday Morning: As the cold front starts to move through the region, the area will be in the warm sector of the storm, with temperatures remaining steady in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area. The line of storms will move east overnight through Pennsylvania, but the timing is the question and will determine whether the area sees strong thunderstorms or just rain and rumbles of thunder.

At this time, the fastest models are the GFS and NAM, bringing the line of rain and storms into the area by 2-4 AM, with strong thunderstorms possible in that scenario. The ECMWF and UKMET models are slower, with the rain only reaching the area on the UKMET by at least 6-8 AM. The GFS and NAM may be a little too fast with their solutions, and at this time, I went with timing closer to the UKMET but a little faster, bringing the rain into the western parts of the area by at least 4-6 AM. Rain and thunderstorms are expected, with some storms potentially producing gusty winds, however an issue with this scenario would be the storms potentially drying out as they move towards the area.

In this scenario, the rain would continue through Tuesday morning, ending by at least noon with breezy conditions and clearing skies afterwards. The 12z ECMWF has a wave of low pressure forming along the cold front, intensifying and producing more precipitation through Wednesday, however at this time the ECMWF is the only model to show such a solution, and while a wave of low pressure may form along the cold front, I am not expecting it to become as significant as the ECMWF has it should there be one.

There continues to be some uncertainty with the exact timing of the storm. Stay tuned for more information on this storm over the next few days.


Longer Range: Warming Up

As the storm exits the region, a colder air mass will return into the area, with high temperatures on Wednesday peaking in the lower to mid 50s across most of the area. On Thursday, a weak storm is expected to pass to the north of the area, and while details are uncertain with the exact scenario, should the timing be supportive, Thursday may bring high temperatures in the 60s for parts of the area. Uncertainty increases in the longer range, however there is the potential for a storm to affect the area late next week or sometime next weekend. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range as details become clearer.

April 1, 2011: Warmer Temperatures To Return

Note: The 5-Day Forecast was updated through Tuesday.

----------------------------------------------

As mentioned yesterday afternoon, the storm was expected to be less significant than the original expectation, with moderate rain for the eastern parts of the area and light snow amounts further west. The storm did end up much less significant, producing less than 1/2 inch of QPF across most of the area, with light snow observed in the northwestern parts of the area producing a general 1 to 4 inches of snow. Wet snow also fell in the immediate NYC area this morning, but failed to accumulate.

After over 10 days of temperatures below average across the area, temperatures will reach the average mark this weekend as a warmer air mass returns, bringing temperatures into the upper 50s for NYC on Sunday. Another storm will then affect the region for Monday and Tuesday, however the latest expectation suggests that in addition to a severe weather risk no longer in place, temperatures may fail to get as warm as they could have.

Weekend Outlook:

Tomorrow will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area with a breezy WNW wind expected. High temperatures will peak in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland, and in the lower to mid 50s for the rest of the area.

Sunday will bring increasing cloud cover with temperatures slightly warmer than tomorrow, in the lower to mid 50s across most of the area and potentially reaching the upper 50s in Newark, NJ. A breezy WNW wind is expected as well.

Monday - Tuesday: Big Warmth/Storms Or Chilly Rain?

Over the last few days, I mentioned the potential for a storm to bring severe weather on Tuesday. The expected storm set up has not changed much since then, and if the timing was supportive it would easily support severe thunderstorms in the area, however a minor change with the storm's timing, intensity and track has removed the severe weather potential and will likely keep temperatures close to the average, not well above average as suggested yesterday.

Sunday Night/Monday: Sunday night will bring light precipitation into the area, especially after 12 AM. There is the potential that light snow may fall in the higher elevations of Sussex and Orange counties, however no accumulation is expected, and any snow would quickly change over to rain. The rain should mainly end by Monday morning, though mainly cloudy skies will continue through the day on Monday with a few showers possible. Temperatures will steadily rise throughout the day, peaking in the mid 40s to lower 50s by the evening.

Monday Night/Tuesday: The set up of the storm would be a supportive one for severe weather had the timing been supportive, however with the cold front already moving through by Tuesday morning, not Tuesday evening, there will not be much instability with the storm, and the result will be a line of rain and non-severe thunderstorms moving through on Tuesday morning.

Temperatures will continue to steadily rise overnight, eventually peaking in the mid 50s to lower 60s across the area. Cloud cover may briefly clear in the early overnight hours, but will increase as a line of rain and thunderstorms approaches between 2 and 6 AM. With a lack of supportive parameters as the event will take place in the late overnight hours, no severe weather is expected in the area, however thunderstorms are possible. The rain should end by Tuesday afternoon with temperatures steadily dropping into the 50s and 40s.

Had the storm moved through 12 hours slower, the set up would have been supportive for temperatures to surge into the lower 70s as far north as NYC on Tuesday afternoon, which would have been followed by severe thunderstorms in the evening. The 18z NAM/DGEX still had this set up, however with the main models in agreement with the timing and scenario, this scenario is no longer favored.

Stay tuned for more information on this storm with tomorrow's update, including an update on the longer range.